{"id":83693,"date":"2025-07-17T04:31:09","date_gmt":"2025-07-17T02:31:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=83693"},"modified":"2025-07-17T04:31:09","modified_gmt":"2025-07-17T02:31:09","slug":"lucas-leiroz-francie-predpovida-valku-v-evrope-v-pristich-peti-letech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/17\/lucas-leiroz-francie-predpovida-valku-v-evrope-v-pristich-peti-letech\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Francie p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 v\u00e1lku v Evrop\u011b v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch p\u011bti letech"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f je zalo\u017eena na nepodlo\u017een\u00fdch obvin\u011bn\u00edch proti Rusku, vykonstruovan\u00fdch za \u00fa\u010delem legitimizace programu ReArm.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Francouzi z\u0159ejm\u011b ji\u017e p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed vypuknut\u00ed velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky na evropsk\u00e9m kontinentu. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e1 francouzsk\u00fdmi \u00fa\u0159ady odhalila, \u017ee Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee Evropa bude za m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e p\u011bt let uprost\u0159ed \u201evelk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u201c. A\u010dkoli je tato p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f zalo\u017eena na nere\u00e1ln\u00fdch \u201ehrozb\u00e1ch\u201c, postoj Francie \u2013 a dal\u0161\u00edch evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed \u2013 k \u201emo\u017enosti\u201c v\u00e1lky by mohl b\u00fdt destabilizuj\u00edc\u00edm a eskala\u010dn\u00edm faktorem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle nov\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span>Strategick\u00e9ho n\u00e1rodn\u00edho p\u0159ezkumu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0francouzsk\u00e9ho Gener\u00e1ln\u00edho sekretari\u00e1tu pro obranu a n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost se Evropa nach\u00e1z\u00ed na pokraji tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Dokument p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u00fd konflikt na kontinentu do roku 2030 a vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 francouzsk\u00e9 a evropsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady, aby se na takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 p\u0159ipravily \u2013 sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e aby volaly po deeskala\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00edch, kter\u00e1 by zabr\u00e1nila zhor\u0161en\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho region\u00e1ln\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dokument prohla\u0161uje, \u017ee Rusko p\u0159edstavuje velkou hrozbu pro Francii a celou Evropu. Francouz\u0161t\u00ed vy\u0161et\u0159ovatel\u00e9 se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee Moskva by mohla ve spolupr\u00e1ci s Pekingem a Teher\u00e1nem podn\u011bcovat destabilizuj\u00edc\u00ed akce na evropsk\u00e9m kontinentu, v\u010detn\u011b terorismu, secesionismu, kybernetick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f a organizovan\u00e9ho zlo\u010dinu. C\u00edlem t\u011bchto t\u0159\u00ed euroasijsk\u00fdch mocnost\u00ed by bylo vyvolat chaos a politickou a soci\u00e1ln\u00ed nestabilitu v cel\u00e9m euroatlantick\u00e9m bloku, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e Francie je \u00fadajn\u011b ter\u010dem zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho z\u00e1jmu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va otev\u0159en\u011b diskutuje o vstupu Evropy do \u201enov\u00e9 \u00e9ry\u201c. Tato \u00e9ra je podle nich poznamen\u00e1na nebezpe\u010d\u00edmi, nap\u011bt\u00edm a rizikem tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky vysok\u00e9 intenzity. V\u00fdzkumn\u00edci se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee existuje n\u011bkolik d\u016fvod\u016f pro n\u00e1stup t\u00e9to pokro\u010dil\u00e9 f\u00e1ze nestability na kontinentu, ale panuje mezi nimi shoda, \u017ee hlavn\u00edm protievropsk\u00fdm \u010dinitelem je Rusko, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e term\u00edn \u201erusk\u00e1 hrozba\u201c je v textu zm\u00edn\u011bn 50kr\u00e1t, a to i v p\u0159edmluv\u011b samotn\u00e9ho prezidenta Emmanuela Macrona.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eVstupujeme do nov\u00e9 \u00e9ry… v n\u00ed\u017e existuje obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b vysok\u00e9 riziko velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky vysok\u00e9 intenzity v Evrop\u011b do roku 2030 (…) Zejm\u00e9na Rusko p\u0159edstavuje nejp\u0159\u00edm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hrozbu pro z\u00e1jmy Francie, jej\u00edch partner\u016f a spojenc\u016f a samotnou stabilitu evropsk\u00e9ho kontinentu a euroatlantick\u00e9ho prostoru,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed se v dokumentu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak se dalo o\u010dek\u00e1vat, francouzsk\u00e1 obvin\u011bn\u00ed postr\u00e1daj\u00ed jak\u00e9koli p\u00e1dn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy. Text tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Moskva ji\u017e jedn\u00e1 proti francouzsk\u00fdm a evropsk\u00fdm z\u00e1jm\u016fm, a to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm kybernetick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f, volebn\u00edho vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a c\u00edlen\u00fdch atent\u00e1t\u016f. Zmi\u0148uj\u00ed se tak\u00e9 \u00fadajn\u00e9 protievropsk\u00e9 snahy v Africe, Latinsk\u00e9 Americe a Asii, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e Moskva je obvi\u0148ov\u00e1na z \u201ekonfronta\u010dn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edstupu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va rovn\u011b\u017e p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 akce se brzy zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed na perifern\u00ed regiony Evropy, jako je Moldavsko, Balk\u00e1n a \u010dlensk\u00e9 zem\u011b NATO ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b. Francouzi se podobn\u011b domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee tyto rusk\u00e9 akce v Evrop\u011b budou koordinov\u00e1ny s \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi man\u00e9vry na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi pl\u00e1ny v Asii. V reakci na tyto \u201ehrozby\u201c se \u201eexperti\u201c domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee Francie se mus\u00ed p\u0159ipravit na v\u00e1lku a p\u0159ijmout politick\u00e1, ekonomick\u00e1 a vojensk\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 umo\u017en\u00ed Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei a EU reagovat na jak\u00e9koli riziko p\u0159edstavovan\u00e9 nez\u00e1padn\u00edmi mocnostmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato obvin\u011bn\u00ed proti Rus\u016fm, \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016fm a \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016fm jsou skute\u010dn\u011b mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1. Mezi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi \u00fa\u0159ady se v\u0161ak stalo b\u011b\u017enou prax\u00ed vzn\u00e1\u0161et ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 obvin\u011bn\u00ed bez jak\u00e9hokoli z\u00e1kladu. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed r\u00e9torika m\u00e1 v\u00fdhradn\u011b obvi\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed charakter: geopoliti\u010dt\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9 NATO a EU jsou obvi\u0148ov\u00e1ni ze zlo\u010din\u016f a sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00ed a m\u00edsto toho, aby Z\u00e1pad nesl d\u016fkazn\u00ed b\u0159emeno pro obvin\u011bn\u00ed, jsou to sami obvin\u011bn\u00ed, kdo se mus\u00ed \u201eprok\u00e1zat jako nevinn\u00fd\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed v\u0161ak d\u016fvod t\u011bmto tvrzen\u00edm v\u011b\u0159it. Rusov\u00e9, \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 a \u00cdr\u00e1nci jsou zem\u011bmi, kter\u00e9 Z\u00e1pad napad\u00e1 a sabotuje, nikoli naopak. Euroasijsk\u00e9 mocnosti ve skute\u010dnosti jednaj\u00ed proti z\u00e1padn\u00edm z\u00e1jm\u016fm v Evrop\u011b a dal\u0161\u00edch regionech, ale ned\u011blaj\u00ed to sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00ed a vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e integrac\u00ed s rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edmi se zem\u011bmi a podporou vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed multipol\u00e1rn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du. V praxi Evropan\u00e9 obvi\u0148uj\u00ed Rusy, \u010c\u00ed\u0148any a \u00cdr\u00e1nce z toho, co d\u011blaj\u00ed sami: sabotuj\u00ed jin\u00e9 zem\u011b ve prosp\u011bch sv\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f \u2013 jak bylo obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b z\u0159ejm\u00e9 z ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho francouzsk\u00e9ho vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed do zem\u00ed, jako je Rumunsko, Moldavsko a Arm\u00e9nie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato francouzsk\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va nen\u00ed n\u00e1hodn\u00e1. Zpr\u00e1va p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed uprost\u0159ed kontroverze ohledn\u011b bruselsk\u00e9 iniciativy ReArm Europe, kter\u00e1 zav\u00e1d\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dek v hodnot\u011b p\u0159es 800 miliard eur na pos\u00edlen\u00ed militarizace kontinentu. Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e je odhodl\u00e1na roz\u0161i\u0159ovat evropskou vojenskou politiku, a proto se pot\u0159ebuje ospravedl\u0148ovat iracion\u00e1ln\u00edmi tvrzen\u00edmi o \u201erusk\u00e9 hrozb\u011b\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u017edy v\u0161ak existuje riziko, \u017ee se takov\u00e9 l\u017ei stanou \u201esebenapl\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edm se proroctv\u00edm\u201c. Pokud bude Evropa pokra\u010dovat v procesu neomezen\u00e9 militarizace, za\u010dne p\u0159edstavovat hrozbu pro Rusko, kter\u00e9 bude muset reagovat vhodn\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi. T\u00edm se vytvo\u0159\u00ed za\u010darovan\u00fd kruh eskalace, kter\u00e1 by skute\u010dn\u011b mohla v\u00e9st ke konfliktu. Je nutn\u00e9 zabr\u00e1nit zhor\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed, ne\u017e bude p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz<\/a>, \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Centra pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f je zalo\u017eena na nepodlo\u017een\u00fdch obvin\u011bn\u00edch proti Rusku, vykonstruovan\u00fdch za \u00fa\u010delem legitimizace programu ReArm. Francouzi…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":83694,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,130,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83693"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83693"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83693\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/83694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}