{"id":83625,"date":"2025-07-16T00:25:04","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T22:25:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=83625"},"modified":"2025-07-15T13:31:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T11:31:00","slug":"thomas-roper-jak-chteji-usa-omezit-moznou-jadernou-valku-pouze-na-evropu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/16\/thomas-roper-jak-chteji-usa-omezit-moznou-jadernou-valku-pouze-na-evropu\/","title":{"rendered":"Thomas R\u00f6per: Jak cht\u011bj\u00ed USA omezit mo\u017enou jadernou v\u00e1lku pouze na Evropu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Francie a Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie se minul\u00fd t\u00fdden dohodly na \u201espole\u010dn\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c. V N\u011bmecku se tato dohoda sotva dostala na tituln\u00ed str\u00e1nky novin, ale jej\u00ed d\u016fsledky jsou potenci\u00e1ln\u011b obrovsk\u00e9.<\/strong><\/p>\n

I b\u011bhem studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky bylo d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm c\u00edlem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f udr\u017eet jadernou v\u00e1lku se Sov\u011btsk\u00fdm svazem pokud mo\u017eno v Evrop\u011b. A\u010dkoli pl\u00e1ny NATO na v\u00e1lku se Sov\u011btsk\u00fdm svazem zahrnovaly brzk\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, m\u011blo se jednat o taktick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, tj. relativn\u011b mal\u00e9 hlavice. Strategick\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm zbran\u00edm, schopn\u00fdm dos\u00e1hnout Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a dokonce zni\u010dit velk\u00e1 m\u011bsta, se m\u011blo pokud mo\u017eno vyhnout.<\/p>\n

Abychom tomu porozum\u011bli, je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b pou\u017eit\u00e9 USA v Hiro\u0161im\u011b a Nagasaki m\u011bly podle dne\u0161n\u00edch m\u011b\u0159\u00edtek velmi mal\u00e9 hlavice. Podle dne\u0161n\u00edch m\u011b\u0159\u00edtek by se jednalo v nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b o mal\u00e9 taktick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, kter\u00e9 by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 odp\u00e1lit i z d\u011blost\u0159electva. Velk\u00e9 hlavice dopraven\u00e9 k c\u00edl\u016fm mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edmi balistick\u00fdmi st\u0159elami jsou n\u011bkdy stokr\u00e1t siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u201emal\u00e9\u201c atomov\u00e9 bomby z druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

C\u00edl USA se dodnes nezm\u011bnil: c\u00edlem USA je st\u00e1le zajistit, aby p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka neovlivnila \u00fazem\u00ed USA.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Proto byla sch\u016fzka francouzsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Macrona a britsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra Starmera v Lond\u00fdn\u011b minul\u00fd t\u00fdden zaj\u00edmav\u00e1, proto\u017ee se mimo jin\u00e9 dohodli na \u201espole\u010dn\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c, co\u017e je n\u011bco, o \u010dem n\u011bmeck\u00e1 m\u00e9dia jako Der Spiegel ani neuva\u017eovala o samostatn\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku. M\u00edsto toho se o tom Der Spiegel zm\u00ednil jen letmo v \u010dl\u00e1nku s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0Nov\u00e1 dohoda mezi Velkou Brit\u00e1ni\u00ed a Franci\u00ed \u2013 Harmonie a\u017e do konce<\/u><\/a>\u00a0\u201c. Der Spiegel napsal:<\/p>\n

\u201eNejpozoruhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dohodou t\u00e9to st\u00e1tn\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dohoda o spole\u010dn\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed. Starmer a Macron ji ozn\u00e1mili ve \u010dtvrtek pozd\u011b odpoledne na vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u011b Northwood severov\u00fdchodn\u011b od Lond\u00fdna. Ob\u011b zem\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 a suver\u00e9nn\u00ed ve sv\u00e9m rozhodnut\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, vysv\u011btlil Emmanuel Macron na spole\u010dn\u00e9 tiskov\u00e9 konferenci s Keirem Starmerem. Vzhledem k nov\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m pro Evropu v\u0161ak mus\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce j\u00edt nad r\u00e1mec dohody z Lancaster House z roku 2010.<\/em>
\n\u201e\u010casy se zm\u011bnily, a proto se mus\u00ed vyv\u00edjet i britsko-francouzsk\u00e9 partnerstv\u00ed,\u201c \u0159ekl Macron. \u201eNedok\u00e1\u017eeme si p\u0159edstavit extr\u00e9mn\u00ed hrozbu pro Evropu, kter\u00e1 by nevedla k rychl\u00e9 reakci z na\u0161\u00ed strany, a\u0165 u\u017e je tato reakce jak\u00e1koli.\u201c<\/em>
\nKoordinace jadern\u00fdch odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edch schopnost\u00ed obou zem\u00ed ji\u017e nen\u00ed vylou\u010dena: \u201eToto je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 poselstv\u00ed pro na\u0161e partnery i protivn\u00edky,\u201c \u0159ekl francouzsk\u00fd prezident. Podepsan\u00e1 dohoda stanov\u00ed z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 skupiny pro \u201ejadern\u00fd dohled\u201c, kter\u00e1 by m\u011bla dohl\u00ed\u017eet na spolupr\u00e1ci.<\/em><\/p>\n

Co to znamen\u00e1<\/h3>\n

Pot\u00e9, co Trump v pond\u011bl\u00ed\u00a0ozn\u00e1mil<\/u><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee se USA fakticky stahuj\u00ed z v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b a v\u00e1lku proti Rusku, v\u010detn\u011b v\u0161ech n\u00e1klad\u016f a rizik, p\u0159enech\u00e1vaj\u00ed Evropan\u016fm, nab\u00fdv\u00e1 toto ozn\u00e1men\u00ed zcela nov\u00e9ho v\u00fdznamu, zejm\u00e9na pot\u00e9, co americk\u00fd ministr obrany Hegseth ji\u017e na summitu NATO na konci \u010dervna jasn\u011b uvedl, \u017ee pro Evropany nebude existovat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 ochrana podle \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 Smlouvy NATO, pokud se na Ukrajin\u011b st\u0159etnou s Ruskem.<\/p>\n

Pokud si \u201eodborn\u00edci\u201c v n\u011bmeck\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch tuto souvislost nakonec uv\u011bdom\u00ed, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b budou ps\u00e1t radostn\u00e9 \u010dl\u00e1nky o tom, jak Britov\u00e9 a Francouzi p\u0159evezmou evropskou jadernou obranu, pokud to USA odm\u00edtnou. Hur\u00e1!<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee riziko fat\u00e1ln\u00edho jadern\u00e9ho konfliktu pro Evropu v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b eskalace na Ukrajin\u011b se mohlo sp\u00ed\u0161e zv\u00fd\u0161it, ne\u017e sn\u00ed\u017eit.<\/p>\n

Podle teori\u00ed o jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce existuj\u00ed f\u00e1ze eskalace. Nap\u0159\u00edklad pokud se jedna strana v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky c\u00edt\u00ed ve skute\u010dn\u00e9 existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozb\u011b, nevypust\u00ed okam\u017eit\u011b cel\u00fd sv\u016fj arzen\u00e1l proti nep\u0159\u00edteli, jen aby byla jeho reakc\u00ed zni\u010dena. M\u00edsto toho by za\u010dala \u201evarovn\u00fdmi v\u00fdst\u0159ely\u201c. Nap\u0159\u00edklad by byla odp\u00e1lena mal\u00e1 taktick\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 zbra\u0148, mo\u017en\u00e1 i nad nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm c\u00edlem, aby se vyslal sign\u00e1l, \u017ee bylo dosa\u017eeno kone\u010dn\u00e9ho bodu bolesti a \u017ee pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky by vedlo ke zni\u010den\u00ed obou v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00edch stran.<\/p>\n

To by podle teorie mohlo otev\u0159\u00edt \u0161anci na jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 by zabr\u00e1nila nejhor\u0161\u00edmu.<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m je v\u0161ak v tom, \u017ee Francie a Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie maj\u00ed jen mal\u00e9 arzen\u00e1ly jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch (nebo jen velmi m\u00e1lo) taktick\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by byly schopny vyslat tento varovn\u00fd sign\u00e1l, a existovalo by tak\u00e9 riziko, \u017ee by na rusk\u00fd varovn\u00fd sign\u00e1l mohly reagovat strategick\u00fdm \u00fatokem, co\u017e by vyvolalo rozs\u00e1hlou jadernou v\u00e1lku vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho zni\u010den\u00ed.<\/p>\n

To by bylo v po\u0159\u00e1dku pro americkou vl\u00e1du, proto\u017ee by to zni\u010dilo Rusko nebo ho alespo\u0148 siln\u011b oslabilo, zat\u00edmco USA, kter\u00e9 se ne\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed v\u00e1lky v Evrop\u011b, by jadern\u00e1 v\u00e1lka neovlivnila, proto\u017ee by se omezila na Evropu a Rusko.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee p\u0159esn\u011b to, co bylo c\u00edlem USA od dob studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Francie a Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie se minul\u00fd t\u00fdden dohodly na \u201espole\u010dn\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c. V N\u011bmecku se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[283,1652,1503,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83625"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83625"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83625\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}