{"id":83478,"date":"2025-07-14T00:10:56","date_gmt":"2025-07-13T22:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=83478"},"modified":"2025-07-13T14:16:29","modified_gmt":"2025-07-13T12:16:29","slug":"jaroslav-neveris-zamazal-co-nedelat-pri-hrani-pokeru-aneb-jak-donald-trump-pripravoval-ruskou-ofenzivu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/14\/jaroslav-neveris-zamazal-co-nedelat-pri-hrani-pokeru-aneb-jak-donald-trump-pripravoval-ruskou-ofenzivu\/","title":{"rendered":"Jaroslav Neveris Zamazal: Co ned\u011blat p\u0159i hran\u00ed pokeru aneb Jak Donald Trump p\u0159ipravoval ruskou ofenz\u00edvu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Donald Trump byl zvolen do funkce prezidenta jako lep\u0161\u00ed varianta oproti sv\u00e9mu p\u0159edch\u016fdci Bidenovi. Trump byl, navzdory mal\u00e9mu v\u011bkov\u00e9mu rozd\u00edlu, vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako podstatn\u011b energi\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ak\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, d\u016frazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, a to nejen s\u00a0ohledem na zdravotn\u00ed stav, n\u00fdbr\u017e zejm\u00e9na s\u00a0ohledem na prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed politiky maj\u00edc\u00ed pos\u00edlit americk\u00fd vliv a presti\u017e. Bidenova zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika v\u016f\u010di Rusku (ale i v\u00a0jin\u00fdch sm\u011brech) byla opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u011b vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako slab\u00e1 a postr\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed hlub\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1m\u011br. Opakovan\u00e9 prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed politick\u00fdch krok\u016f ve stylu \u201ep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 m\u00e1lo a p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b\u201c budilo dojem, \u017ee Bidenovou snahou je udr\u017eovat konflikt co nejd\u00e9le v\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00e9m nerozhodnut\u00e9m stavu. Navzdory hlasit\u00fdm deklarac\u00edm ve smyslu, jak je Rusko \u0161patn\u00e9 a jak je Ukrajina ob\u011bt\u00ed rusk\u00e9 agrese, \u010diny za t\u011bmito slovy hojn\u011b zaost\u00e1valy. To se p\u0159irozen\u011b ned\u011blo pouze v USA, ov\u0161em USA m\u011bly a st\u00e1le maj\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enosti jak pr\u016fb\u011bh konfliktu ovlivnit, jak mu p\u0159edej\u00edt a jak zkr\u00e1tit jeho trv\u00e1n\u00ed, a proto z\u00a0jejich strany je neochota tyto kapacity vyu\u017e\u00edt nejv\u00edce do o\u010d\u00ed bij\u00edc\u00ed. V\u00a0tomto sm\u011bru tedy b\u011bhem volebn\u00ed kampan\u011b Trump opakovan\u011b zd\u016fraz\u0148oval jako z\u00e1sadn\u00ed chybu, \u017ee USA za prezidentstv\u00ed Bidena nedok\u00e1zaly svou s\u00edlu vyu\u017e\u00edt, a prohla\u0161oval, \u017ee kdyby byl prezidentem on, kter\u00fd tu s\u00edlu samoz\u0159ejm\u011b um\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edvat daleko l\u00e9pe, tak by k\u00a0t\u00e9 v\u00e1lce v\u016fbec nedo\u0161lo.<\/p>\n

Deklarovan\u00e1 pozice nov\u011b zvolen\u00e9ho prezidenta tedy byla, \u017ee v\u00e1lku ukon\u010d\u00ed a \u017ee dos\u00e1hne m\u00edr skrze s\u00edlu (\u201epeace through strength\u201c), tj. \u017ee zas\u00e1hne jako aktivn\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010d, jen\u017e bude nejen prosazovat zastaven\u00ed boj\u016f, ale na rozd\u00edl od Bidena bude schopen tuto svou snahu podpo\u0159it energi\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi akcemi a v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm spektrem dostupn\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f. Vzhledem k\u00a0americk\u00e9 s\u00edle tento postup m\u011bl p\u0159irozen\u011b zna\u010dnou \u0161anci na \u00fasp\u011bch, nav\u00edc v\u00a0kombinaci s\u00a0povahov\u00fdmi rysy Donalda Trumpa a zejm\u00e9na jeho nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost\u00ed, je\u017e mu umo\u017e\u0148uje dr\u017eet protistranu v\u00a0nejistot\u011b, vyv\u00edjet na ni neust\u00e1l\u00fd tlak a prosadit svou v\u016fli.<\/p>\n

Partie s Putinem<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Re\u00e1ln\u011b se v\u0161ak tato o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nenaplnila (viz \u2013 v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0b\u0159eznu<\/a>,\u00a0dubnu<\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0kv\u011btnu<\/a>), ov\u0161em nesouvis\u00ed to s\u00a0ruskou s\u00edlou, neporazitelnost\u00ed nebo Putinovou genialitou, jak to b\u00fdv\u00e1 prezentov\u00e1no v\u00a0p\u0159irovn\u00e1n\u00ed mnohokr\u00e1t opakovan\u00e9m na rusk\u00e9 propagandistick\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u011b. Podle tohoto a\u017e barvit\u011b divadeln\u00edho obrazu Amerika, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b cel\u00fd Z\u00e1pad, hraj\u00ed poker, zat\u00edmco Putin \u010di Rusko hraj\u00ed \u0161achy. To m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edjemc\u016fm nazna\u010dit, \u017ee tedy Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 napr\u00e1zdno blafuj\u00ed bez n\u011bjak\u00e9 re\u00e1ln\u00e9 s\u00edly \u010di re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nu a spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed, zat\u00edmco Rusov\u00e9 maj\u00ed \u00fasp\u011bchy \u010dist\u011b d\u00edky sv\u00e9mu brilantn\u00edmu pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed, p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161len\u00ed a racion\u00e1ln\u00edmu postupu. To je v\u0161ak omyl. Probl\u00e9m nesouvis\u00ed ani tolik s\u00a0t\u00edm, zda je Putin v\u00edce \u010di m\u00e9n\u011b geni\u00e1ln\u00ed ne\u017e \u201estabiln\u00ed genius\u201c Trump, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e s\u00a0prost\u00fdm faktem, \u017ee v\u00a0pokerov\u00e9 partii, kterou spolu hr\u00e1li kolem vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, si Putin mohl pomysln\u00e9 karty dr\u017eet u t\u011bla, zat\u00edmco Trump je bezelstn\u011b pokl\u00e1dal l\u00edcem na st\u016fl. V\u00a0takov\u00e9 situaci je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 n\u011bjak blafovat, nato\u017e pak ten poker \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b hr\u00e1t \u010di dokonce vyhr\u00e1t. P\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b, pokud to p\u0159esuneme do \u0161achov\u00e9 roviny, tak by to byla podobn\u00e1 situace, jako kdyby v\u00a0\u0161achov\u00e9 partii Trump je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem hry ze sv\u00e9 strany \u0161achovnice odstranil sv\u00e9 nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed figury. Potom pak jednostrann\u00fd pr\u016fb\u011bh partie (neboli naprost\u00fd ne\u00fasp\u011bch Trumpova sna\u017een\u00ed) sotva m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt n\u011bjak\u00fdm p\u0159ekvapen\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Toto p\u0159irovn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ak pokulh\u00e1v\u00e1. Bl\u00ed\u017ee skute\u010dnosti je obraz, kdy jde o partii mezi Ukrajinou a Ruskem, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e Trump je ten, kdo m\u00e1 p\u0159im\u011bt oba hr\u00e1\u010de, aby se p\u0159estali pokou\u0161et toho druh\u00e9ho porazit a n\u011bjak se dohodli na rem\u00edze. Ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 Trump pouze jednomu z\u00a0hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f (Ukrajin\u011b) postupn\u011b odeb\u00edr\u00e1 ze \u0161achovnice jej\u00ed figury, \u010d\u00edm\u017e tuto hru \u010din\u00ed pro Ukrajinu v\u00edce a v\u00edce obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. V\u00a0t\u00e9to situaci je pak dosti bizarn\u00ed, \u017ee se Trump div\u00ed a nech\u00e1pe (viz jeho vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee\u00a0Putin se zbl\u00e1znil<\/a>), pro\u010d Rusko za t\u011bchto podm\u00ednek nejev\u00ed ochotu p\u0159estat tuto partii hr\u00e1t a naopak v\u00a0n\u00ed chce v\u00edce a v\u00edce pokra\u010dovat, a\u017e do \u00fapln\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Je\u0161t\u011b bizarn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je pak n\u00e1sledn\u00e1 interpretace tohoto stavu Trumpem ve smyslu, \u017ee to je chyba Ukrajiny, proto\u017ee p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 prohr\u00e1v\u00e1, a tak Rusko chce hr\u00e1t d\u00e1l a tedy kv\u016fli Ukrajin\u011b se Trumpovi neda\u0159\u00ed domluvit onu rem\u00edzu.<\/p>\n

Tohle zjevn\u011b nen\u00ed ta spr\u00e1vn\u00e1 cesta, jak konflikt ukon\u010dit, a tedy, navzdory Trumpem deklarovan\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm, p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k\u00a0jeho pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed. Ov\u0161em to nen\u00ed cel\u00fd rozsah probl\u00e9mu. Krom\u011b pouh\u00e9ho prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu Trumpovy akce podporuj\u00ed i jeho eskalaci.<\/p>\n

Nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1 p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Jakkoli to je bizarn\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Trumpa, tak se mu v\u00a0uplynul\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch poda\u0159ilo p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Putina o sv\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti. To v\u0161ak, jak vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 i teorie her, podn\u011bcuje u protivn\u00edka v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed agresivitu a v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed snahu \u201ezvy\u0161ovat s\u00e1zky\u201c a sna\u017eit se ze situace, kdy se druh\u00e1 strana chov\u00e1 p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b (nebo alespo\u0148 d\u011bl\u00e1 ten dojem), vyt\u011b\u017eit maximum ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch a p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fd subjekt \u201eo\u0161kubat\u201c. Naopak tedy, pokud jedna strana z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e1 a d\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u011brohodn\u011b najevo, \u017ee je p\u0159ipravena na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 eskala\u010dn\u00ed kroky reagovat adekv\u00e1tn\u00ed odvetou, tak sni\u017euje pravd\u011bpodobnost t\u00e9to eskalace. Pokud v\u0161ak d\u00e1v\u00e1 najevo, \u017ee reagovat nebude, a\u0165 se d\u011bje, co se d\u011bje, tak se pravd\u011bpodobnost agresivn\u00edch krok\u016f a eskalace nep\u0159ekvapiv\u011b zvy\u0161uje.<\/p>\n

Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b v\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Rusko coby n\u00e1sledn\u00edk Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu zd\u011bdilo des\u00edtky let shroma\u017e\u010fovan\u00e9 z\u00e1soby v\u00fdzbroje, ale tyto zdroje nejsou nekone\u010dn\u00e9. Stejn\u011b tak i \u201ev\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 ekonomika\u201c mohutn\u011b dotovan\u00e1 z\u00a0d\u0159\u00edve nashrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch rezerv nen\u00ed dlouhodob\u011b udr\u017eiteln\u00e1. Logicky tedy, pokud by se Putin ob\u00e1val toho, \u017ee se Trump na\u0161tve a \u017ee v\u00a0reakci na Putinovy provokace a obstrukce p\u0159istoup\u00ed k\u00a0odvet\u011b, tak by Putin p\u0159irozen\u011b necht\u011bl riskovat a nechal by si n\u011bjak\u00e9 s\u00edly a zdroje v\u00a0z\u00e1loze. V\u00a0takov\u00e9 situaci by tedy m\u00e9n\u011b eskaloval konflikt a m\u011bl by k\u00a0tomuto \u00fa\u010delu m\u00e9n\u011b pou\u017eiteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. Ov\u0161em Trumpovi se poda\u0159ilo Putina p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit, \u017ee eskalovat m\u016f\u017ee a \u017ee trest za to z\u00a0americk\u00e9 strany nep\u0159ijde (nad r\u00e1mec ubl\u00ed\u017een\u00fdch post\u016f na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch). V\u00a0takov\u00e9 situaci m\u00e1 tedy Putin p\u0159irozen\u011b nutk\u00e1n\u00ed \u201enav\u00fd\u0161it s\u00e1zky\u201c, ne\u0161et\u0159it si \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 rezervy v\u00a0z\u00e1loze a v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 zdroje nasadit nejen do pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky, ale i do jej\u00edho zintenzivn\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zdroje tu (zat\u00edm) jsou<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Tomu nasv\u011bd\u010duje i v\u00fdvoj na front\u011b, kdy Rusko vyu\u017eilo oslaben\u00ed Ukrajinc\u016f skrze v\u00fdpadek americk\u00e9 podpory k\u00a0pos\u00edlen\u00ed sv\u00e9 pozice (mimo jin\u00e9 eliminac\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 pozice v\u00a0Kursk\u00e9 oblasti a n\u00e1slednou diverz\u00ed ve sm\u011bru na Sumy). Zd\u00e1nliv\u011b p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b se to v\u0161ak bezprost\u0159edn\u011b neprojevilo akutn\u00edm nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm tlaku v\u00a0klasicky rusk\u00e9m stylu. B\u011bhem jara 2025 rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nad\u00e1le sv\u016fj postup prov\u00e1d\u011bla (na sv\u00e9 pom\u011bry a ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edmi roky) s\u00a0relativn\u011b omezen\u00fdm nasazen\u00edm t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 techniky (viz nap\u0159\u00edklad medi\u00e1ln\u011b atraktivn\u00ed \u00fatoky na\u00a0motocyklech<\/a>,\u00a0\u010dty\u0159kolk\u00e1ch<\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0golfov\u00fdch voz\u00edc\u00edch<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Toto pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed \u201ekreativn\u00ed v\u00fdzbroje\u201c ov\u0161em nen\u00ed v\u00fdraz jak\u00e9si geni\u00e1ln\u00ed rusk\u00e9 taktick\u00e9 koncepce, jak ob\u010das sl\u00fdch\u00e1me od prorusk\u00fdch fanou\u0161k\u016f, ale ani to nen\u00ed pr\u016fvodn\u00ed jev zhroucen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy ve smyslu, \u017ee ta u\u017e nic jin\u00e9ho nem\u00e1. Objektivn\u011b z anal\u00fdz rusk\u00fdch sklad\u016f v\u00fdzbroje a tempa jej\u00ed spot\u0159eby (podrobn\u011bji viz\u00a0zde<\/a>) vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee v\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed nedostatek t\u011bchto zdroj\u016f v\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch kategori\u00edch v\u00fdzbroje nastane a\u017e b\u011bhem roku 2026.<\/p>\n

Z\u00a0toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee prob\u00edh\u00e1 shroma\u017e\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 techniky a formov\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch jednotek se zjevn\u00fdm \u00fa\u010delem. V\u00a0praxi to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Putin, uklidn\u011bn\u00fd dosavadn\u00edm postojem Trumpa, bez obav \u201epotopil\u201c m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, aby mohl vyu\u017e\u00edt p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 letn\u00ed obdob\u00ed k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed ofenz\u00edv\u011b (podrobn\u011bji viz\u00a0zde<\/a>\u00a0od 45:51 d\u00e1l). I v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpravn\u00e9 f\u00e1zi v\u0161ak bylo nutno pokra\u010dovat v tlaku, aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 udr\u017eet narativ ve stylu: \u201eUkrajinci st\u00e1le prohr\u00e1vaj\u00ed, nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 karty a je tedy nutno vyhov\u011bt v\u0161em rusk\u00fdm po\u017eadavk\u016fm.\u201c To vzhledem k\u00a0\u0161et\u0159en\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 v\u00fdzbroje na l\u00e9to vedlo ke zp\u016fsobu boje n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9mu na lidsk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

Ty se v\u0161ak da\u0159\u00ed nahrazovat a Rusko zat\u00edm netrp\u00ed nedostatkem voj\u00e1k\u016f. I k\u00a0tomu svou aktivitou p\u0159isp\u011bl americk\u00fd prezident, nebo\u0165 rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na finan\u010dn\u011b motivovan\u00e9 z\u00e1jemce z\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch vrstev, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st on\u00e9 motivace nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 jen ve vysok\u00e9m platu, ale zejm\u00e9na ve vysok\u00e9m bonusu za pouh\u00e9 podeps\u00e1n\u00ed smlouvy. Po zvolen\u00ed Trumpa prezidentem a s\u00a0n\u00e1r\u016fstem vyhl\u00eddek na brzk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed se mezi rusk\u00fdm obyvatelstvem p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 kategorie nep\u0159ekvapiv\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ilo p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee \u201especi\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 operace\u201c brzy skon\u010d\u00ed, a tedy se stalo daleko l\u00e1kav\u011bj\u0161\u00edm podepsat smlouvu, inkasovat za podpis sedmim\u00edstnou sumu a doufat, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nastane d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e doty\u010dn\u00fd \u010derstv\u00fd milion\u00e1\u0159 bude p\u0159evelen z\u00a0v\u00fdcviku na frontu (bl\u00ed\u017ee viz\u00a0narativn\u00ed shrnut\u00ed<\/a>,\u00a0podrobnosti a \u010d\u00edsla<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Hazard bez rizika<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed by tedy Putin neriskoval a nezkou\u0161el by \u201ehr\u00e1t vabank\u201c.\u00a0 P\u0159eci jen v\u00a0roce 2022 se mu dostalo ponau\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00e9 hazardov\u00e1n\u00ed se m\u016f\u017ee \u0161kared\u011b nevyplatit, a nav\u00edc jeho\u00a0pozice v\u00a0Kremlu je pevn\u00e1<\/a>\u00a0a nen\u00ed z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na dosa\u017een\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9ho \u201etot\u00e1ln\u00edho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c, tj. dob\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed Putin prov\u00e1d\u00ed pro sv\u016fj dobr\u00fd pocit a nikoli z\u00a0nutnosti. Ov\u0161em Trump jej \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil, \u017ee mu nic nehroz\u00ed a \u017ee nebude nijak penalizov\u00e1n, kdy\u017e jeho risk nevyjde, a pouze pak ud\u011bl\u00e1 to, co by mohl ud\u011blat te\u010f, tj. bude souhlasit s\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Putinova kalkulace je n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed: Kdyby za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed vrhl v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy do ofenz\u00edvy, hrozilo by, \u017ee se Trump na\u0161tve a podpo\u0159\u00ed Ukrajinu, aby Putina za neochotu potrestal. T\u00edm by rusk\u00fd vl\u00e1dce \u201eprop\u00e1lil\u201c sv\u00e9 rezervy, nic by nez\u00edskal, ale nav\u00edc by byl zbaven z\u00e1loh a toto oslaben\u00ed by mohla vyu\u017e\u00edt Ukrajina pos\u00edlen\u00e1 podporou ze strany USA a z\u00edskat zp\u011bt \u010d\u00e1st \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Putin m\u00e1 u\u017e te\u010f. Tedy by \u0161lo o potenci\u00e1ln\u011b dost riskantn\u00ed krok. Ov\u0161em d\u00edky americk\u00e9mu prezidentovi je nyn\u00ed Putin v\u00a0situaci, kdy v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy \u201evsadit do hry\u201c a t\u00edm m\u016f\u017ee z\u00edskat v\u00edce, ne\u017e m\u00e1 te\u010f, a to s\u00a0minim\u00e1ln\u00edm rizikem a bez obav z\u00a0n\u00e1sledk\u016f v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ne\u00fasp\u011bchu.<\/p>\n

P\u0159irozen\u011b za takov\u00fdch podm\u00ednek u\u017e \u201ehra vabank\u201c pro Putina nep\u0159edstavuje hazard a naopak nab\u00edz\u00ed \u0161anci na \u00fasp\u011bch prakticky bez rizika. P\u0159irozen\u011b to neplat\u00ed o voj\u00e1c\u00edch na front\u011b, u nich\u017e to pro nemalou \u010d\u00e1st z\u00a0nich znamen\u00e1 podstatn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u0161ance na zran\u011bn\u00ed \u010di smrt. Ale po\u010dty padl\u00fdch jsou z\u00a0kremelsk\u00e9ho pohledu naprostou mali\u010dkost\u00ed, kter\u00e1 na Putinov\u011b dobr\u00e9m pocitu nic nezm\u011bn\u00ed. A hlavn\u011b, i kdyby tato jeho s\u00e1zka v\u016fbec nevy\u0161la a ofenz\u00edva v\u00a0roce 2025 neusp\u011bla a nedos\u00e1hla v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch zisk\u016f, tak jemu \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta nehroz\u00ed. M\u016f\u017ee jen vyhr\u00e1t a v\u00a0nejhor\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u201ez\u016fstane na sv\u00e9m\u201c. A pokud by se nepovedla opravdu katastrof\u00e1ln\u011b a hrozil by n\u011bjak\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd proti\u00fatok, tak d\u00edky Trumpovu \u00fasil\u00ed m\u00e1 Putin st\u00e1le tu mo\u017enost, \u017ee v\u00a0takovou chv\u00edli vyhl\u00e1s\u00ed svou ochotu k\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a americk\u00fd prezident se postar\u00e1, aby Ukrajina byla p\u0159inucena ho akceptovat.<\/p>\n

Tedy Rusko se m\u016f\u017ee s\u00a0klidem pokusit vyu\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed zdroje k\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 ofenz\u00edv\u011b, je\u017e v\u00e1lku nemus\u00ed zcela rozhodnout a Ukrajinu \u00fapln\u011b porazit, ale m\u016f\u017ee Rusku z\u00edskat dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st ukrajinsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. P\u0159irozen\u011b to bude znamenat prodlou\u017een\u00ed v\u00e1lky, v\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst po\u010dtu mrtv\u00fdch na ukrajinsk\u00e9 i rusk\u00e9 stran\u011b, co\u017e v\u0161ak nikoho relevantn\u00edho v\u00a0Rusku tr\u00e1pit nebude. Oby\u010dejn\u00fdm Rus\u016fm je sice jedno, jestli Rusko bude ovl\u00e1dat 20 nebo 25 procent \u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny, ale Putin se bude c\u00edtit jako v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dobyvatel, a to je jedin\u00e9, co se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1. A pokud nehroz\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed americk\u00e9 odvety, tak pro\u010d t\u00e9to p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti nevyu\u017e\u00edt?<\/p>\n

Varov\u00e1n\u00ed z historie<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Bohu\u017eel p\u0159i pohledu do historie tato situace nen\u00ed nov\u00e1. Podobn\u011b tomu bylo i ve t\u0159ic\u00e1t\u00fdch letech dvac\u00e1t\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed velmoci se pokou\u0161ely Hitlerovi vych\u00e1zet vst\u0159\u00edc a na jeho provokace reagovaly \u00fastupky. Logick\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem bylo, \u017ee Hitler sv\u00e9 po\u017eadavky a sv\u016fj tlak stup\u0148oval, proto\u017ee svou situaci vyhodnotil tak, \u017ee jeho soupe\u0159i jsou p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00ed v\u00a0tom, \u017ee mu v\u017edy vyhov\u00ed a na odpor se mu nepostav\u00ed. Jak je zn\u00e1mo z\u00a0historie, tento dojem byl myln\u00fd. Kdy\u017e se Hitler p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edtal a Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie s\u00a0Francii pochopily, \u017ee se mus\u00ed postavit na odpor, a s\u00a0velkou neochotou to ud\u011blaly v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1939, tak t\u00edm byl \u201egeni\u00e1ln\u00ed\u201c hr\u00e1\u010d velmi p\u0159ekvapen, ale u\u017e bylo pro v\u0161echny pozd\u011b (bl\u00ed\u017ee viz\u00a0zde<\/a>\u00a0v\u00a0kontextu teorie her).<\/p>\n

P\u0159irozen\u011b historie se nikdy neopakuje pln\u011b a doslova, n\u00fdbr\u017e se sp\u00ed\u0161e \u201er\u00fdmuje\u201c. Tak\u017ee z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u00e9, zda se Donald Trump pou\u010d\u00ed a z\u00a0nevyhnutelnosti v\u00a0sob\u011b najde odvahu, kterou v\u00a0sob\u011b kdysi na\u0161el i Neville Chamberlain, anebo zda z\u016fstane i nad\u00e1le uzav\u0159en v koloto\u010di \u201eusmi\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed Putina\u201c. Probl\u00e9m v\u0161ak je, \u017ee tato partie neprob\u00edh\u00e1 jen mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b mezi Ruskem a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Tuto hru\u00a0sleduj\u00ed i jin\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di<\/a>, kte\u0159\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u011b t\u00e9\u017e budou v\u00a0poku\u0161en\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edt toho, \u017ee Amerika, pota\u017emo cel\u00fd Z\u00e1pad, jsou nalad\u011bni p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b ve smyslu, \u017ee jejich standardn\u00ed odpov\u011bd\u00ed na tlak nebudou \u010diny a odveta, n\u00fdbr\u017e jen slova a \u00fastup. Jedn\u00edm z\u00a0t\u011bchto hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed pozoruj\u00ed a na z\u00e1klad\u011b tohoto pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed zva\u017euj\u00ed, jak agresivn\u011b maj\u00ed hr\u00e1t sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed partie, je nep\u0159ekvapiv\u011b \u010c\u00edna. A pokud se \u201estr\u00fd\u010dek Si\u201c rozhodne tak\u00e9 nav\u00fd\u0161it s\u00e1zky ohledn\u011b Tchaj-wanu, tak platit to budeme v\u0161ichni.<\/p>\n

Jaroslav Neveris Zamazal<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump byl zvolen do funkce prezidenta jako lep\u0161\u00ed varianta oproti sv\u00e9mu p\u0159edch\u016fdci Bidenovi. Trump…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":72617,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,102,452,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83478"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83478"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83478\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72617"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}