{"id":83309,"date":"2025-07-12T00:12:56","date_gmt":"2025-07-11T22:12:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=83309"},"modified":"2025-07-11T12:15:24","modified_gmt":"2025-07-11T10:15:24","slug":"arnaud-bertrand-zabila-izraelska-valka-sionismus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/12\/arnaud-bertrand-zabila-izraelska-valka-sionismus\/","title":{"rendered":"Arnaud Bertrand: Zabila izraelsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka sionismus?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ned\u00e1vno jsem narazil na anal\u00fdzu \u00edr\u00e1nsko-izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kterou pova\u017euji za jednu z nejpronikav\u011bj\u0161\u00edch, jak\u00e9 jsem \u010detl. Napsal ji Jacques Sapir \u2013 jeden z p\u0159edn\u00edch francouzsk\u00fdch ekonom\u016f a geopolitick\u00fdch myslitel\u016f, \u0159editel \u00c9cole des Hautes \u00c9tudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei a \u010dlen Rusk\u00e9 akademie v\u011bd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sapir tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee izraelsk\u00e1 snaha o kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 taktick\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy mohla ve skute\u010dnosti v\u00e9st ke strategick\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017ece cel\u00e9ho sionistick\u00e9ho projektu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Propaganda na v\u0161ech stran\u00e1ch<\/span><\/h3>\n

Podle Sapira v\u0161ichni t\u0159i hlavn\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i \u2013 Izrael, \u00cdr\u00e1n a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty \u2013 \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed intenzivn\u00ed propagandu. Trump nap\u0159\u00edklad tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed byla kompletn\u011b zni\u010dena \u2013 co\u017e je le\u017e, jak ukazuje unikl\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va Obrann\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby (DIA). Uv\u00e1d\u00ed se v n\u00ed, \u017ee \u00fatok na jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed \u2013 zejm\u00e9na na Fordow \u2013 m\u011bl pouze \u201em\u00edrn\u00fd\u201c \u00fa\u010dinek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n tak\u00e9 tento narativ akceptuje, aby mohl neru\u0161en\u011b pokra\u010dovat v pr\u00e1ci na sv\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m programu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jadern\u00e1 realita<\/span><\/h3>\n

Podle Sapira \u00cdr\u00e1n \u201epravd\u011bpodobn\u011b u\u0161et\u0159il velkou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9ho \u0161t\u011bpn\u00e9ho materi\u00e1lu \u2013 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 400 kg uranu obohacen\u00e9ho na v\u00edce ne\u017e 60 %\u201c. Teher\u00e1n nav\u00edc st\u00e1le disponuje technick\u00fdmi mo\u017enostmi pro dal\u0161\u00ed obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n nikdy nem\u011bl v \u00famyslu okam\u017eit\u011b vyr\u00e1b\u011bt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, ale prost\u0159edky k tomu z\u00edskal. N\u011bkolik fatv, v\u010detn\u011b jedn\u00e9 od Chamene\u00edho (2003\/2004), jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b zakazuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sapir poukazuje na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti s \u00fatoky jedovat\u00fdm plynem Sadd\u00e1ma Husajna v \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lce a na skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Izrael s\u00e1m o sob\u011b je jadernou mocnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dv\u011b strategick\u00e9 mo\u017enosti pro \u00cdr\u00e1n<\/span><\/h3>\n

Varianta A<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0: Jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b jako<\/span>
\nodstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek. Pokud se \u00cdr\u00e1n rozhodne pln\u011b se vyzbrojit, Sapir odhaduje, \u017ee by mohl m\u00edt b\u011bhem 2\u20133 let 6\u20138 hlavic. Bez schopnosti druh\u00e9ho \u00faderu \u2013 jako je izraelsk\u00fdch 120\u2013150 hlavic \u2013 v\u0161ak \u00cdr\u00e1n z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zraniteln\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Varianta B<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0: Prahov\u00fd status jako p\u00e1ka.<\/span>
\nAlternativn\u011b by si Teher\u00e1n mohl zachovat sv\u016fj sou\u010dasn\u00fd status: schopen vyrobit bombu, ale neschopn\u00fd ji vyrobit. To by nab\u00eddlo nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enou vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed p\u00e1ku s USA v nad\u011bji, \u017ee Washington omez\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o eskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto rozhodnut\u00ed bude utv\u00e1\u0159et geopolitickou jadernou dynamiku nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konven\u010dn\u00ed po\u0161kozen\u00ed a vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed st\u0159el<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n utrp\u011bl vojensk\u00e9 \u0161kody \u2013 zejm\u00e9na na sv\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e. Podle DIA v\u0161ak byl Izrael zasa\u017een tvrd\u011b: 60 % jeho energetick\u00e9 infrastruktury je mimo provoz, ob\u011b rafinerie v Haif\u011b jsou paralyzovan\u00e9 a jih trp\u00ed v\u00fdpadky proudu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je v\u0161ak\u00a0<\/span>vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu protiraketov\u00e9 obrany<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Izrael si udr\u017euje t\u0159i vrstvy obrany (\u017delezn\u00e1 kopule, rakety st\u0159edn\u00edho doletu a obranu proti IRBM). Vysok\u00e1 m\u00edra odpalov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 2\u20133 z\u00e1chytn\u00e9 st\u0159ely na \u00edr\u00e1nskou raketu \u2013 v\u0161ak oslabila z\u00e1soby. P\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou se vyr\u00e1b\u011blo pouze 3\u20138 z\u00e1chytn\u00fdch st\u0159el m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b \u2013 dopln\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1sob mohlo trvat 2\u20133 roky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00e1 past<\/span><\/h3>\n

Sapir odhaduje, \u017ee p\u0159edchoz\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky vynalo\u017eily na obranu zhruba miliardu dolar\u016f \u2013 sou\u010dasn\u00fd konflikt pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vyjde na p\u011btkr\u00e1t a\u017e \u0161estkr\u00e1t v\u00edce. Izrael \u010del\u00ed dilematu: ekonomick\u00e1 krize nebo masivn\u00ed z\u00e1vislost na USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pora\u017een\u00fd: Izrael<\/span><\/h3>\n

Arm\u00e1da<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0: Izraelsk\u00e1 odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00edla byla naru\u0161ena. Arm\u00e1da se spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na podporu americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva \u2013 americk\u00e9 fregaty se syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany nyn\u00ed zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed izraelsk\u00fd vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Politicky<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0: Zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na Gazu p\u0159edstavuje mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed probl\u00e9my ne\u017e v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Konsenzus se hrout\u00ed. Sapir vid\u00ed ofenz\u00edvu v Gaze jako c\u00edl:\u00a0<\/span>etnick\u00e9 \u010distky<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Ale ani Egypt, ani Jord\u00e1nsko necht\u011bj\u00ed p\u0159ij\u00edmat uprchl\u00edky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato situace nut\u00ed Izrael k volb\u011b:\u00a0<\/span>poru\u0161it p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a eskalovat nap\u011bt\u00ed v Gaze<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u2013 riskovat ztr\u00e1tu Trumpovy podpory \u2013 nebo riskovat z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bnu strategie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Smrt sionistick\u00e9 suverenity<\/span><\/h3>\n

Sapirova nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed teze: Izrael st\u00e1le v\u00edce ztr\u00e1c\u00ed svou politickou autonomii \u2013 je fakticky kontrolov\u00e1n Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Sionistick\u00e1 my\u0161lenka suver\u00e9nn\u00edho \u017eidovsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu je tak podkop\u00e1na. Lobbov\u00e1n\u00ed a medi\u00e1ln\u00ed moc \u2013 kdysi mocn\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje \u2013 maj\u00ed na Trumpa jen mal\u00fd vliv. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby by mohl dokonce takticky vyu\u017e\u00edt protiizraelsk\u00e9 proudy proti Izraeli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izrael se s\u00e1m dostal do t\u00e9to z\u00e1vislosti \u2013 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00fd byl je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika lety nemysliteln\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sionistick\u00fd paradox<\/span><\/h3>\n

Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sionistickou my\u0161lenkou byl \u017eidovsk\u00fd,\u00a0<\/span>suver\u00e9nn\u00ed<\/span><\/em>\u00a0st\u00e1t. Ale jak nez\u00e1visl\u00fd je st\u00e1t, kter\u00fd je na Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech zcela z\u00e1visl\u00fd vojensky, ekonomicky a politicky? Sapir to naz\u00fdv\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1sadn\u00ed hrozbou pro samotn\u00fd sionismus<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strategick\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/span><\/h3>\n

Je ironi\u00ed, \u017ee z\u00e1vislost Izraele na USA by mohla b\u00fdt pro \u00cdr\u00e1n v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm. Kontrolovateln\u00fd Izrael \u2013 jeho\u017e eskalace je \u0159\u00edzena Washingtonem \u2013 je pro Teher\u00e1n snaz\u0161\u00ed zvl\u00e1dnout ne\u017e autonomn\u00edho agresora.<\/span><\/p>\n

Riziko \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Sapir varuje p\u0159ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi d\u016fsledky. Pou\u010den\u00edm z v\u00e1lky je, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozice je na prahu jadern\u00fdch<\/span><\/em>\u00a0zbran\u00ed. Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo chce odradit jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, se jich mus\u00ed bu\u010f \u00fapln\u011b vzd\u00e1t, nebo\u00a0<\/span>tajn\u011b a rychle<\/span><\/em>\u00a0jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b vybudovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n z\u00edsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, bude ho n\u00e1sledovat Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie. Braz\u00edlie je tak\u00e9 probl\u00e9mem \u2013 s potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm dominov\u00fdm efektem pro Argentinu a Chile.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/span><\/h3>\n

To, co Izrael prod\u00e1v\u00e1 jako v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, je ve skute\u010dnosti obchod:\u00a0<\/span>n\u011bkter\u00e1 zni\u010dila \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed za ztr\u00e1tu vlastn\u00ed suverenity<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Sionistick\u00fd projekt, zalo\u017een\u00fd na nez\u00e1vislosti, se \u2013 up\u00edn\u00e1n\u00edm na maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed kontrolu nad Palestinou \u2013 dostal do naprost\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti na supervelmoci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pyrrhovo v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nejen zm\u011bn\u00ed Izrael \u2013 ale mohlo by tak\u00e9 ot\u0159\u00e1st glob\u00e1ln\u00edm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm \u0159\u00e1dem.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ned\u00e1vno jsem narazil na anal\u00fdzu \u00edr\u00e1nsko-izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kterou pova\u017euji za jednu z nejpronikav\u011bj\u0161\u00edch, jak\u00e9 jsem…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":41378,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[107,6431,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83309"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83309\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}