{"id":83269,"date":"2025-07-11T04:58:34","date_gmt":"2025-07-11T02:58:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=83269"},"modified":"2025-07-11T04:58:34","modified_gmt":"2025-07-11T02:58:34","slug":"elena-fritz-rusko-a-azerbajdzan-analyza-postupneho-odcizovani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/11\/elena-fritz-rusko-a-azerbajdzan-analyza-postupneho-odcizovani\/","title":{"rendered":"Elena Fritz: Rusko a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n: Anal\u00fdza postupn\u00e9ho odcizov\u00e1n\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Vztahy mezi Ruskem a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem se v uplynul\u00e9m roce a p\u016fl v\u00fdrazn\u011b ochladily. Zat\u00edmco do roku 2022 oba st\u00e1ty \u00fazce spolupracovaly a Rusko v \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu vid\u011blo ekonomicky i bezpe\u010dnostn\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho partnera, dnes panuje znateln\u00e1 distance \u2013 diplomatick\u00e1 i strategick\u00e1. Zm\u011bna nenastala n\u00e1hle, ale byla v\u00fdsledkem struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch posun\u016f, odli\u0161n\u00fdch priorit zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky a zm\u011bn region\u00e1ln\u00edch mocensk\u00fdch konstelac\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Historicky bylo Rusko pova\u017eov\u00e1no za ochrannou mocnost \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu, zejm\u00e9na od po\u010d\u00e1tku 90. let. Po skon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky o N\u00e1horn\u00ed Karabach v roce 1994 a p\u0159evzet\u00ed moci Hejdarem Alijevem se mezi Moskvou a Baku etablovaly vztahy zalo\u017een\u00e9 na spolupr\u00e1ci, kter\u00e9 byly podpo\u0159eny ekonomick\u00fdmi vazbami \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 diaspory v Rusku \u2013 a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politikou. Rusko se v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b etablovalo jako prost\u0159edn\u00edk mezi konfliktn\u00edmi stranami, Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem. Zmrazen\u00fd status N\u00e1horn\u00edho Karabachu \u2013 podle mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va sou\u010d\u00e1st \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu, fakticky v\u0161ak pod kontrolou Arm\u00e9nie \u2013 vytvo\u0159il r\u00e1mec, v n\u011bm\u017e mohlo Rusko vystupovat jako garant stability na Ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze.<\/p>\n

Tato rovnov\u00e1ha se za\u010dala hroutit nejpozd\u011bji s v\u00fdm\u011bnou vl\u00e1dy v Arm\u00e9nii v roce 2018. N\u00e1stup premi\u00e9ra Nikolaje Pa\u0161injana \u2013 podporovan\u00e9ho spole\u010densk\u00fdm reformn\u00edm hnut\u00edm \u2013 byl v Moskv\u011b p\u0159ijat kriticky. Rusko-arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 vztahy se ochladily, zat\u00edmco Moskva se z\u00e1rove\u0148 sna\u017eila d\u00e1le rozv\u00edjet spolupr\u00e1ci s Baku. Rostouc\u00ed energetick\u00e1 a vojensk\u00e1 spolupr\u00e1ce \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu s Tureckem nebyla v tomto kontextu vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed v\u00fdzva.<\/p>\n

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\"[...]\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Zlomov\u00fd bod: konflikty v Karabachu v letech 2020 a 2023<\/h2>\n

Z\u00e1sadn\u00edm zlomov\u00fdm bodem byla vojensk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu v N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu v roce 2020. Rusko se zdr\u017eelo otev\u0159en\u00e9ho odsouzen\u00ed \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 operace a m\u00edsto toho zprost\u0159edkovalo dohodu o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla b\u00fdt monitorov\u00e1na rusk\u00fdmi m\u00edrov\u00fdmi silami. \u010c\u00e1st rusk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed v t\u00e9to operaci vid\u011bla p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost oslabit vliv Arm\u00e9nie pod Pa\u0161inyanem, ani\u017e by ohrozila vztahy s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem. Druh\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu v roce 2023, kter\u00e1 vedla k \u00fapln\u00e9 kontrole nad \u00fazem\u00edm, byla Moskvou rovn\u011b\u017e akceptov\u00e1na.<\/p>\n

Tato pasivita v\u0161ak m\u011bla strategick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. Zat\u00edmco \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n dos\u00e1hl sv\u00fdch \u00fazemn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f a fakticky sn\u00ed\u017eil z\u00e1vislost na Rusku, Rusko ztratilo d\u016fle\u017eitou pozici v Ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkazu, ani\u017e by za to z\u00edskalo jasnou protihodnotu. \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n zintenzivnil spolupr\u00e1ci s Tureckem a Izraelem, zejm\u00e9na v oblasti zbrojn\u00ed technologie. Sou\u010dasn\u011b do\u0161lo ke zhor\u0161en\u00ed vztah\u016f mezi Baku a Teher\u00e1nem pot\u00e9, co se objevily zpr\u00e1vy o vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru izraelsk\u00fdmi pr\u016fzkumn\u00fdmi drony.<\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00e9 faktory a strategick\u00e9 rozd\u00edly<\/h2>\n

Nap\u011bt\u00ed se projevilo i v ekonomick\u00e9 oblasti. \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n s\u00e1hl po z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed tureck\u00e9ho plynov\u00e9ho uzlu, kter\u00fd m\u011bl slou\u017eit jako distribu\u010dn\u00ed platforma pro v\u00fdvoz energie do Evropy \u2013 za zapojen\u00ed rusk\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek plynu. Tyto pl\u00e1ny byly v Moskv\u011b p\u0159ijaty se skeps\u00ed a z\u016fstaly z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti nerealizov\u00e1ny. K tomu se p\u0159idala blok\u00e1da tranzitu \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 energie p\u0159es Ukrajinu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n p\u0159i\u0161el o d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd odbytov\u00fd trh.<\/p>\n

V Rusku nav\u00edc do\u0161lo k pos\u00edlen\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed proti krimin\u00e1ln\u00edm struktur\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 jsou spojov\u00e1ny s \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 diaspory. Rozbit\u00ed t\u011bchto s\u00edt\u00ed zas\u00e1hlo tak\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy ur\u010dit\u00fdch \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fdch elit, kter\u00e9 dosud profitovaly z neform\u00e1ln\u00edch vazeb.<\/p>\n

Diplomatick\u00e1 zdr\u017eenlivost navzdory zjevn\u00fdm t\u0159ec\u00edm ploch\u00e1m<\/h2>\n

A\u010dkoli jsou konfliktn\u00ed linie jasn\u011b rozpoznateln\u00e9, rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da dosud reagovala zdr\u017eenliv\u011b. Diplomatick\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje se omezily na p\u0159edvol\u00e1n\u00ed \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho velvyslance a p\u0159ed\u00e1n\u00ed protestn\u00ed n\u00f3ty. Ofici\u00e1ln\u011b se na rusk\u00e9 stran\u011b hovo\u0159\u00ed o bl\u00ed\u017ee nespecifikovan\u00fdch vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch akt\u00e9rech, kte\u0159\u00ed maj\u00ed z\u00e1jem na zhor\u0161en\u00ed vztah\u016f. Tato formulace ponech\u00e1v\u00e1 prostor pro interpretaci a umo\u017e\u0148uje prozat\u00edm zabr\u00e1nit eskalaci.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se mno\u017e\u00ed n\u00e1znaky, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 strana zva\u017euje strategick\u00e9 mo\u017enosti v\u016f\u010di \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu, nap\u0159\u00edklad opatrn\u00e9 sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed s Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed nebo zintenzivn\u011bn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed kroky v\u0161ak zat\u00edm nejsou zn\u00e1my.<\/p>\n

Perspektivy<\/h2>\n

V kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu nelze o\u010dek\u00e1vat normalizaci rusko-\u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fdch vztah\u016f. Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika Baku z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 jasn\u011b proz\u00e1padn\u00ed a pro-tureck\u00e1, zat\u00edmco Rusko s\u00e1z\u00ed na s\u00ed\u0165 region\u00e1ln\u00edch partnerstv\u00ed, do kter\u00e9 \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nepat\u0159\u00ed. Spolupr\u00e1ce v oblasti bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politiky je fakticky pozastavena, ekonomick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy se rozch\u00e1zej\u00ed. Je v\u0161ak mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee se vztahy ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m horizontu op\u011bt stabilizuj\u00ed, nap\u0159\u00edklad v souvislosti s geopolitick\u00fdmi posuny nebo person\u00e1ln\u00edmi zm\u011bnami ve veden\u00ed obou zem\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Dlouhodob\u00fd v\u00fdvoj bilater\u00e1ln\u00edch vztah\u016f bude siln\u011b z\u00e1viset na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed situaci, region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektu\u0159e a vnit\u0159n\u00ed dynamice v Baku. Rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nesignalizuje ochotu ke konfrontaci, sna\u017e\u00ed se v\u0161ak zajistit si zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed kan\u00e1ly vlivu. Zda se j\u00ed to poda\u0159\u00ed, je otev\u0159en\u00e9.<\/p>\n

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Russland und Aserbaidschan: Analyse einer schleichenden Entfremdung<\/a> vy\u0161el 3.7.2025 na pi-news.net. P\u0159eklad Zv\u011bdavec<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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Vztahy mezi Ruskem a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem se v uplynul\u00e9m roce a p\u016fl v\u00fdrazn\u011b ochladily. Zat\u00edmco do…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":83270,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2966,22,814],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83269"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83269"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83269\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/83270"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83269"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83269"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83269"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}