{"id":83237,"date":"2025-07-11T00:13:11","date_gmt":"2025-07-10T22:13:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=83237"},"modified":"2025-07-10T13:56:10","modified_gmt":"2025-07-10T11:56:10","slug":"stephen-kinzer-nebezpecna-americka-fantazie-o-zmene-rezimu-v-iranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/11\/stephen-kinzer-nebezpecna-americka-fantazie-o-zmene-rezimu-v-iranu\/","title":{"rendered":"Stephen Kinzer: Nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1 americk\u00e1 fantazie o zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

I kdy\u017e je vl\u00e1da \u0161patn\u00e1, bylo by chybou, kdyby ji svrhli lid\u00e9 zven\u010d\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e americk\u00e1 letadla shodila megabomby na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, bylo nevyhnuteln\u00e9, \u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ve Washingtonu sn\u00ed o svr\u017een\u00ed klerik\u00e1ln\u00edho re\u017eimu. Tato fantazie se opakovan\u011b objevovala. Zm\u011bna re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, zn\u011bla r\u016f\u017eov\u00e1 vize, by poskytla Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho partnera v Teher\u00e1nu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 by potrestala mull\u00e1hy za desetilet\u00ed odporu od krize rukojm\u00ed v letech 1978-79.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato vize ignoruje dv\u011b nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 reality. Zaprv\u00e9, isl\u00e1msk\u00fd re\u017eim zdaleka nepadne, i kdy\u017e mull\u00e1hov\u00e9 nejsou popul\u00e1rn\u00ed. Zadruh\u00e9, pokud se zhrout\u00ed, \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl upadnout do chaosu. \u00cdr\u00e1nci si to uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed. Mnoz\u00ed svou vl\u00e1du nen\u00e1vid\u00ed, ale \u00cdr\u00e1nci kolem sebe vid\u00ed zhroucen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a necht\u011bj\u00ed se k nim p\u0159idat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tce po americk\u00fdch bombov\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch prezident Trump vyslal provokativn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vu: \u201eJe politicky nekorektn\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvat term\u00edn \u201azm\u011bna re\u017eimu\u2018, ale pokud sou\u010dasn\u00fd \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim nen\u00ed schopen \u00cdr\u00e1n znovu u\u010dinit velk\u00fdm, pro\u010d by nem\u011blo doj\u00edt ke zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu??? MIGA!!!\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysoc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 se rychle pokusili Trumpovu hrozbu zm\u00edrnit. \u201eNechceme zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu,\u201c \u0159ekl viceprezident J. D. Vance. Ministr obrany Pete Hegseth trval na tom, \u017ee bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u201enebylo a nikdy nebylo o zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tiskov\u00e1 mluv\u010d\u00ed B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu Karoline Leavittov\u00e1 v\u0161ak situaci d\u00e1le zakalila tvrzen\u00edm, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nci by se mohli \u201epovstat proti tomuto brut\u00e1ln\u00edmu teroristick\u00e9mu re\u017eimu\u201c, pokud nedos\u00e1hne kompromisu se sv\u00fdmi nep\u0159\u00e1teli. \u201ePokud \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim odm\u00edtne naj\u00edt m\u00edrov\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed \u2013 o kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 mimochodem prezident i nad\u00e1le z\u00e1jem a je k n\u011bmu odhodl\u00e1n \u2013 pro\u010d by \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd lid nem\u011bl odebrat moc tomuto neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b n\u00e1siln\u00e9mu re\u017eimu, kter\u00fd je l\u00e9ta utla\u010duje?\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Byla to zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed formulace, proto\u017ee historie nezn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edklad toho, \u017ee by se lid vzbou\u0159il, proto\u017ee jeho v\u016fdci odm\u00edtli podniknout diplomatick\u00e9 kroky. Leavitt\u016fv \u0161\u00e9f ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b rychle odporoval j\u00ed \u2013 i sob\u011b. Kdy\u017e se report\u00e9r zeptal prezidenta Trumpa, zda skute\u010dn\u011b usiluje o zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, odpov\u011bd\u011bl: \u201eNe\u201c a dodal: \u201eZm\u011bna re\u017eimu vy\u017eaduje chaos a v ide\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nechceme vid\u011bt tolik chaosu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Pane prezidente, gratuluji k tomuto pozn\u00e1n\u00ed. Pros\u00edm, u\u017e znovu nem\u011b\u0148te n\u00e1zor. \u00cdr\u00e1nci cht\u011bj\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1du, ale cht\u011bj\u00ed si ji sami utv\u00e1\u0159et. Zm\u011bna re\u017eimu zevnit\u0159 m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st novou stabilitu. Bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed ne.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nci maj\u00ed mnoho d\u016fvod\u016f k smutku. Od roku 1979 jsou pod vl\u00e1dou represivn\u00edho a zkorumpovan\u00e9ho klerik\u00e1ln\u00edho re\u017eimu. Ten \u017een\u00e1m vnucuje p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fd kodex chov\u00e1n\u00ed a obl\u00e9k\u00e1n\u00ed a v\u011bzn\u00ed ty, kte\u0159\u00ed se zasazuj\u00ed o svobodu. Hlavn\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u00fdzvy, od ekonomick\u00e9 diverzifikace a\u017e po z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed vodou, z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nevy\u0159e\u0161eny.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nci v\u0161ak v\u011bd\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 l\u00e9pe ne\u017e kdokoli jin\u00fd na sv\u011bt\u011b, \u017ee a\u0165 je p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed re\u017eim jakkoli \u0161patn\u00fd, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed. Mull\u00e1hov\u00e9 se k moci dostali v roce 1979 po svr\u017een\u00ed Mohammada Rezy \u0160\u00e1ha. Koalice, kter\u00e1 \u0161\u00e1ha smetla, byla extr\u00e9mn\u011b r\u016fznorod\u00e1, od n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdch fanatik\u016f p\u0159es komunisty a\u017e po liber\u00e1ln\u011b sm\u00fd\u0161lej\u00edc\u00ed demokraty. Nikdo nev\u011bd\u011bl, jak bude re\u017eim po \u0161\u00e1hovi vypadat, ale v\u0161ichni se shodli, \u017ee a\u0165 u\u017e p\u0159inese cokoli, bude to zlep\u0161en\u00ed. M\u00fdlili se. M\u00edsto posunu od \u0161patn\u00e9ho k lep\u0161\u00edmu se podm\u00ednky zhor\u0161ily. Pokud by byli mull\u00e1hov\u00e9 sesazeni, mohlo by doj\u00edt k opakov\u00e1n\u00ed situace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mnoho \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f nen\u00ed ochotno podstoupit toto riziko. Jejich vlastn\u00ed sousedstv\u00ed poskytuje st\u0159\u00edzliv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edklady zk\u00e1zy, kterou m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st zm\u011bna re\u017eimu sponzorovan\u00e1 USA. S\u00fdrie, Ir\u00e1k a Libye byly stabiln\u00ed zem\u011b pod diktaturou. Lid\u00e9 mohli v\u00e9st norm\u00e1ln\u00ed \u017eivot, pokud nekritizovali vl\u00e1du. Kdokoli se mohl bezpe\u010dn\u011b proch\u00e1zet po ulici nebo sed\u011bt v kav\u00e1rn\u011b, ani\u017e by se musel b\u00e1t v\u00fdbuchu teroristick\u00e9 bomby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pot\u00e9, co americk\u00e1 moc svrhla syrsk\u00e9, ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 a libyjsk\u00e9 v\u016fdce, se demokracie nikdy neobjevila. S\u00fdrii vl\u00e1dne b\u00fdval\u00fd terorista, za jeho\u017e zat\u010den\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty kdysi nab\u00eddly milionovou odm\u011bnu. Ir\u00e1k je rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd a nefunk\u010dn\u00ed. Libye je selh\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed st\u00e1t a \u017eivn\u00e1 p\u016fda pro teror.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nci maj\u00ed bolestn\u00e9 kolektivn\u00ed vzpom\u00ednky na zahrani\u010dn\u00ed intervenci. V 19. a na za\u010d\u00e1tku 20. stolet\u00ed Rusko a Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie fakticky kontrolovaly \u00cdr\u00e1n a okupovaly \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed v dne\u0161n\u00edm \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu. Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie vynutila dohodu, kter\u00e1 j\u00ed ud\u011blila vlastnictv\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch z\u00e1sob. Kdy\u017e se v 50. letech 20. stolet\u00ed kone\u010dn\u011b objevila demokracie a premi\u00e9r Mohammad Mossadegh zn\u00e1rodnil ropn\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie zorganizovaly p\u0159evrat s c\u00edlem ho svrhnout. To vedlo k 25 let\u016fm kr\u00e1lovsk\u00e9 diktatury, po nich\u017e n\u00e1sledovalo v\u00edce ne\u017e 40 let pod mull\u00e1hy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mnoz\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu sd\u00edlej\u00ed dv\u011b z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed: Re\u017eim je \u0161patn\u00fd, ale ciz\u00ed mocnosti by se ho nem\u011bly sna\u017eit svrhnout. To si nen\u00ed protimluv. Politick\u00e9 zm\u011bny po bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed nebo invazi jsou obvykle k hor\u0161\u00edmu. Pokud zm\u011bna p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed zevnit\u0159 \u2013 kdy\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1nci, a ne cizinci, ur\u010duj\u00ed osud \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 bude autenti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, hlub\u0161\u00ed a trvalej\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stephen Kinzer<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I kdy\u017e je vl\u00e1da \u0161patn\u00e1, bylo by chybou, kdyby ji svrhli lid\u00e9 zven\u010d\u00ed. Kdy\u017e americk\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12331,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,703,1212,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83237"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83237"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83237\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12331"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83237"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83237"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83237"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}