{"id":83033,"date":"2025-07-08T05:09:41","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T03:09:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=83033"},"modified":"2025-07-08T05:09:41","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T03:09:41","slug":"lucas-leiroz-zapadni-strategove-zavadeji-novou-valecnou-doktrinu-proti-euroasijskym-mocnostem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/08\/lucas-leiroz-zapadni-strategove-zavadeji-novou-valecnou-doktrinu-proti-euroasijskym-mocnostem\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Z\u00e1padn\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed novou v\u00e1le\u010dnou doktr\u00ednu proti euroasijsk\u00fdm mocnostem"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd posun od boji\u0161t\u011b k psychologick\u00fdm a kybernetick\u00fdm operac\u00edm odhaluje skute\u010dn\u00e9 priority z\u00e1padn\u00edch elit.<\/strong><\/p>\n

V posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch vlna publikac\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch think tank\u016f a m\u00e9di\u00ed napojen\u00fdch na arm\u00e1du odhalila v\u00fdznamn\u00fd posun v tom, jak Z\u00e1pad vn\u00edm\u00e1 konflikt s glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi mocnostmi, jako jsou Rusko a \u010c\u00edna. Instituce jako RAND Corporation, Centrum pro strategick\u00e1 a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed studia (CSIS), Kr\u00e1lovsk\u00fd institut spojen\u00fdch slu\u017eeb (RUSI) a\u00a0<\/span>Military Review<\/span><\/em>\u00a0nast\u00ednily to, co pova\u017euj\u00ed za z\u00e1klady budouc\u00edho v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed my\u0161lenka se ji\u017e nezam\u011b\u0159uje na p\u0159\u00edmou vojenskou konfrontaci, ale na prodlou\u017eenou, v\u00edcerozm\u011brnou hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lku. Tato \u201ev\u00e1lka budoucnosti\u201c se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 ve t\u0159ech hlavn\u00edch oblastech: informa\u010dn\u00edch a psychologick\u00fdch operac\u00edch, kyberprostoru a ekonomick\u00e9 sf\u00e9\u0159e. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed bude p\u0159evaha v um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligenci a bezpilotn\u00edch syst\u00e9mech. Pro USA a NATO je dosa\u017een\u00ed dominance v t\u011bchto oblastech prezentov\u00e1no jako kl\u00ed\u010d k udr\u017een\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho v\u016fd\u010d\u00edho postaven\u00ed a zvl\u00e1dnut\u00ed strategick\u00fdch rival\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee tato forma v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed p\u0159inese rychl\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. Naopak je koncipov\u00e1na jako \u201edlouh\u00e1 hra\u201c na vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem je oslabit protivn\u00edka zevnit\u0159 \u2013 destabilizac\u00ed jeho ekonomiky, p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159en\u00edm jeho informa\u010dn\u00edho prostoru a psychologickou demoralizac\u00ed jak jeho populace, tak politick\u00fdch elit. Analytici RAND zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee tento typ konfliktu vy\u017eaduje trp\u011blivost a schopnost n\u00e9st socioekonomick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy ve skute\u010dnosti ji\u017e p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 obyvatelstvo na p\u0159ijet\u00ed takov\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f a ospravedl\u0148uj\u00ed \u00fasporn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed a klesaj\u00edc\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 narativem mor\u00e1ln\u00ed konfrontace s takzvan\u00fdmi \u201eautorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdmi re\u017eimy\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato strategick\u00e1 zm\u011bna je z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti d\u016fsledkem selh\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edstupu na Ukrajin\u011b. P\u016fvodn\u00ed pl\u00e1n \u2013 vyzbrojit a podpo\u0159it Ukrajinu jako z\u00e1stupnou s\u00edlu schopnou zp\u016fsobit Rusku strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku \u2013 se zhroutil. Politika militarizace Ukrajiny a jej\u00ed p\u0159em\u011bny na geopolitick\u00fd n\u00e1stroj proti Moskv\u011b zavedla USA a jejich spojence do slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed analytici nyn\u00ed p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee vojensk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nad Ruskem prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Ukrajiny je nedosa\u017eiteln\u00e9. Toto zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed donutilo z\u00e1padn\u00ed pl\u00e1nova\u010de p\u0159ehodnotit samotn\u00fd koncept konfliktu a p\u0159ej\u00edt od p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontace k psychologick\u00fdm a technologick\u00fdm operac\u00edm zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm na vnit\u0159n\u00ed soudr\u017enost soupe\u0159\u00edc\u00edch n\u00e1rod\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle t\u00e9to nov\u00e9 doktr\u00edny je c\u00edlem formovat vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed budoucnosti v rusk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti \u2013 vykreslit obraz nevyhnuteln\u00e9ho \u00fapadku, \u0161\u00ed\u0159it pochybnosti o schopnosti Ruska vojensky a ekonomicky konkurovat Z\u00e1padu a vyvolat dezorientaci mezi jeho elitami. Z\u00e1pad se sna\u017e\u00ed v\u0161t\u00edpit my\u0161lenku, \u017ee Rusko je trvale pozadu \u2013 technologicky m\u00e9n\u011bcenn\u00e9, glob\u00e1ln\u011b izolovan\u00e9 a neschopn\u00e9 dohnat ostatn\u00ed. Jak poznamenali analytici z RUSI, tyto narativy jsou z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159eny pro masovou spot\u0159ebu s c\u00edlem oslabit soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a psychologickou strukturu rusk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dast\u0159edn\u00edm bodem t\u00e9to strategie je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee informa\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159evaha bude definovat v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v 21. stolet\u00ed. Publikace CSIS a RAND v\u00fdslovn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee \u201ekdo ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 narativ, vyhr\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00e1lku\u201c. Budouc\u00ed konflikty, tvrd\u00ed, se nebudou v\u00e9st tanky pror\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00edmi linie, ale senzorickou a kognitivn\u00ed dominanc\u00ed \u2013 dezorientac\u00ed protivn\u00edka, manipulac\u00ed s jeho vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00edm ud\u00e1lost\u00ed a urychlen\u00edm rozhodovac\u00edch cykl\u016f pomoc\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence. Nejde jen o v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed; jde o psychologickou nadvl\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro implementaci tohoto modelu je nutn\u00e9 mobilizovat pln\u00fd potenci\u00e1l zdroj\u016f kolektivn\u00edho Z\u00e1padu. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed publikace zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence nejen podpo\u0159\u00ed informa\u010dn\u00ed operace, ale m\u016f\u017ee zcela nahradit tradi\u010dn\u00ed formy vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu. Propaganda zalo\u017een\u00e1 na um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligenci, kampan\u011b soci\u00e1ln\u00edho in\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed a autonomn\u00ed digit\u00e1ln\u00ed operace by se mohly st\u00e1t prim\u00e1rn\u00edmi zbran\u011bmi vlivu. Vize RAND zahrnuje tak\u00e9 technologick\u00fd z\u00e1vod s \u010c\u00ednou, zejm\u00e9na v asijsko-pacifick\u00e9m regionu, kde se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159evaha um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence bude ur\u010dovat rovnov\u00e1hu sil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory sv\u00e9mu uhlazen\u00e9mu povrchu v\u0161ak tato nov\u00e1 hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 doktr\u00edna trp\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdmi nedostatky. Zanedb\u00e1v\u00e1 historick\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti a kulturn\u00ed realitu. Zejm\u00e9na Rusko opakovan\u011b prok\u00e1zalo schopnost vydr\u017eet a p\u0159izp\u016fsobit se v dlouhodob\u00fdch kriz\u00edch. I v 90. letech, kdy proz\u00e1padn\u00ed s\u00edly ovl\u00e1daly velkou \u010d\u00e1st m\u00e9di\u00ed a politick\u00e9 struktury zem\u011b, si rusk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost zachovala svou kulturn\u00ed identitu a oddanost tradi\u010dn\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed analytici tuto z\u00e1kladn\u00ed odolnost z\u0159ejm\u011b p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed. Selh\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch sankc\u00ed je toho jasn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem. Rusk\u00e1 ekonomika se m\u00edsto kolapsu p\u0159izp\u016fsobila podm\u00ednk\u00e1m modern\u00edho konfliktu, rychle se restrukturalizovala a dokonce vstoupila do f\u00e1ze vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 expanze.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 militarizaci sv\u00e9 ekonomiky Rusko dos\u00e1hlo v n\u011bkter\u00fdch kritick\u00fdch oblastech p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9 p\u0159evahy nad Z\u00e1padem. V objemu vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fdroby, zejm\u00e9na v oblasti dron\u016f a vysoce p\u0159esn\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, p\u0159ekonalo zem\u011b NATO. V\u00fdvoj, jako jsou bezpilotn\u00ed letouny Lancet, hypersonick\u00e1 raketa Kin\u017eal a pokroky v satelitn\u00edch technologi\u00edch, posunuly Rusko p\u0159ed Ukrajinu, p\u0159esto\u017ee ta byla zpo\u010d\u00e1tku v sektoru dron\u016f podporov\u00e1na silnou z\u00e1pado-tureckou alianc\u00ed. B\u011bhem necel\u00fdch dvou let Rusko zvr\u00e1tilo dynamiku na boji\u0161ti a uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee technologick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj m\u016f\u017ee prob\u00edhat i za p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fdch sankc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

To vede ke kritick\u00e9 ot\u00e1zce: pokud je nov\u00e1 z\u00e1padn\u00ed strategie tak efektivn\u00ed, pro\u010d se tolik spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na medi\u00e1ln\u00ed humbuk a teoretick\u00e1 zd\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00ed s mal\u00fdm mno\u017estv\u00edm praktick\u00fdch d\u016fkaz\u016f? Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st z\u00e1padn\u00edho nad\u0161en\u00ed pro hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lku se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt poh\u00e1n\u011bna nikoli strategickou nutnost\u00ed, ale z\u00e1jmy vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu. Think tanky a dodavatel\u00e9 obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu mohou z p\u0159echodu na v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed zalo\u017een\u00e9 na um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligenci, digit\u00e1ln\u00ed infrastruktu\u0159e a financov\u00e1n\u00ed kybernetick\u00e9ho velen\u00ed nesm\u00edrn\u011b t\u011b\u017eit. Politick\u00e1 t\u0159\u00edda pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 narativ \u201ev\u00e1lky nov\u00e9 generace\u201c k ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed rozpo\u010dtu pro obrann\u00fd sektor, zat\u00edmco omezuje ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 slu\u017eby a potla\u010duje disent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnou funkc\u00ed t\u00e9to hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 doktr\u00edny je ochrana z\u00e1jm\u016f nadn\u00e1rodn\u00ed elity. Pod rou\u0161kou boje proti glob\u00e1ln\u00edm hrozb\u00e1m, jako jsou Rusko, \u010c\u00edna, \u00cdr\u00e1n a dal\u0161\u00ed, z\u00e1padn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy p\u0159erozd\u011bluj\u00ed bohatstv\u00ed sm\u011brem nahoru \u2013 sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 pen\u00edze do rukou vojensk\u00fdch dodavatel\u016f a think tank\u016f. Oby\u010dejn\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9 jsou \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1ni, aby se ob\u011btovali za \u201esvobodu\u201c, zat\u00edmco jejich re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mzdy stagnuj\u00ed a \u017eivotn\u00ed podm\u00ednky se zhor\u0161uj\u00ed. Domn\u011bl\u00e1 nal\u00e9havost konfrontace s \u201eautokratick\u00fdm druh\u00fdm\u201c se st\u00e1v\u00e1 kou\u0159ovou clonou pro dom\u00e1c\u00ed selh\u00e1n\u00ed a \u0161patn\u00e9 hospoda\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Role m\u00e9di\u00ed v t\u00e9to operaci je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed. Stejn\u011b jako z\u00e1padn\u00ed tisk zveli\u010doval pravd\u011bpodobnost rusk\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017eky na Ukrajin\u011b, nyn\u00ed nafukuje potenci\u00e1l hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky a nadvl\u00e1dy um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence. Dosavadn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky t\u011bchto p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed jsou v\u0161ak slab\u00e9. Tit\u00ed\u017e experti, kte\u0159\u00ed slibovali rychl\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, nyn\u00ed volaj\u00ed po des\u00edtky let trvaj\u00edc\u00ed psychologick\u00e9 v\u00e1lce \u2013 co\u017e je jasn\u00e9 znamen\u00ed, \u017ee p\u016fvodn\u00ed pl\u00e1n selhal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee nov\u00e1 hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 strategie Z\u00e1padu odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e taktick\u00fd \u00fastup ne\u017e pr\u016flom. Uzn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee tradi\u010dn\u00ed metody selhaly, zejm\u00e9na na Ukrajin\u011b, a pokou\u0161\u00ed se nahradit ztracenou dynamiku na boji\u0161ti psychologick\u00fdm, ekonomick\u00fdm a technologick\u00fdm tlakem. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady jsou v\u0161ak chybn\u00e9: \u017ee narativy mohou zlomit n\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u016fli, \u017ee um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence m\u016f\u017ee nahradit strategii a \u017ee propaganda m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Tato p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed slou\u017e\u00ed prim\u00e1rn\u011b k udr\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 ekonomiky a jej\u00edch elit, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e aby nab\u00edzela jakoukoli re\u00e1lnou vyhl\u00eddku na \u00fasp\u011bch. Ve snaze vyhr\u00e1t v\u00e1lku vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee Z\u00e1pad op\u011bt prohr\u00e1t v\u00e1lku reality.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
Lucas Leiroz<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n
\"Lucas<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Brazilsk\u00fd novin\u00e1\u0159, geopolitick\u00fd analytik. Absolvent programu Kulturn\u00ed roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed Brazilsk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 akademie. V\u00fdzkumn\u00edk v Centru pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia. Profesn\u011b pracuje jako novin\u00e1\u0159 a geopolitick\u00fd analytik. V\u00fdzkumn\u00edk ve v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 skupin\u011b \u201eKrize, rozvoj a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vztahy\u201c na Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed venkovsk\u00e9 univerzit\u011b v Rio de Janeiru. Na pozv\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 delegace v \u017denev\u011b prezentoval zpr\u00e1vu o pou\u017eit\u00ed chemick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdmi ozbrojen\u00fdmi silami na 52. zased\u00e1n\u00ed Rady OSN pro lidsk\u00e1 pr\u00e1va a na \u201edopl\u0148kov\u00fdch diskus\u00edch\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd posun od boji\u0161t\u011b k psychologick\u00fdm a kybernetick\u00fdm operac\u00edm odhaluje skute\u010dn\u00e9 priority z\u00e1padn\u00edch elit. V…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":83034,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,760,1894,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83033"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83033"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83033\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/83034"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}