{"id":82788,"date":"2025-07-04T04:35:51","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T02:35:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=82788"},"modified":"2025-07-04T04:35:51","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T02:35:51","slug":"pristi-nejvyssi-vudce-zdedi-bombu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/04\/pristi-nejvyssi-vudce-zdedi-bombu\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce zd\u011bd\u00ed bombu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Americk\u00e1 ned\u016fslednost a izraelsk\u00e1 agrese zpe\u010detily strategick\u00fd sm\u011br Teher\u00e1nu. Konec d\u016fv\u011bry. Konec \u0159e\u010d\u00ed<\/h3>\n

\u201eDvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lka\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0mezi\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem znamenala zlom \u2013 nejen pro \u00cdr\u00e1n, ale pro cel\u00fd region. Zapojen\u00ed Ameriky do konfliktu zni\u010dilo ve\u0161ker\u00e9 zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed nad\u011bje na deeskalaci diplomatickou cestou. Pro Teher\u00e1n je nyn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika rozd\u011blena na\u00a0<\/span>\u201ep\u0159ed\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>\u201epo\u201c.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0A v tomto nov\u00e9m\u00a0<\/span>\u201epo\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0nezb\u00fdv\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bra \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v Donalda Trumpa.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed politici a analytici st\u00e1le doufali v postupn\u00e9 t\u00e1n\u00ed vztah\u016f se Z\u00e1padem. Tato nad\u011bje se vypa\u0159ila, kdy\u017e Washington uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee dok\u00e1\u017ee b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed kol\u00edsat mezi m\u00edrov\u00fdmi gesty a vojensk\u00fdmi hrozbami. I um\u00edrn\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hlasy v Teher\u00e1nu nyn\u00ed pova\u017euj\u00ed Trumpa za nespolehliv\u00e9ho, a\u010dkoli dlouhodob\u00e9 rozhovory se Z\u00e1padem zcela nevylou\u010dily.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bnou za\u00a0<\/span>\u201em\u00edrov\u00fd dialog\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0jsou v \u00cdr\u00e1nu v\u0161eobecn\u011b vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako pr\u00e1zdn\u00e1. Koncem \u010dervna sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly z Washingtonu jen prohloubily ned\u016fv\u011bru. 26. \u010dervna stanice Fox News informovala, \u017ee USA podporuj\u00ed pl\u00e1n pomoci ve v\u00fd\u0161i 30 miliard dolar\u016f pro \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd civiln\u00ed jadern\u00fd program \u2013 s v\u00fdjimkou obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu. N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed den v\u0161ak Trump zpr\u00e1vu ozna\u010dil za\u00a0<\/span>\u201em\u00fdtus\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0a nazna\u010dil dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fadery na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Pot\u00e9, 29. \u010dervna, op\u011bt zm\u011bnil kurz a uvedl, \u017ee sankce by mohly b\u00fdt zru\u0161eny, pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n projev\u00ed\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u201em\u00edrov\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Tento vzorec je zn\u00e1m\u00fd. 12. \u010dervna Trump vyzval Izrael, aby ne\u00fato\u010dil na \u00cdr\u00e1n. O n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed pozd\u011bji izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky podpo\u0159il. Teher\u00e1n tyto zm\u011bny nepova\u017euje za diplomacii, ale za manipulaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed se v reakci na to sna\u017e\u00ed prezentovat jednotnou frontu. Hlubok\u00e9 rozpory v\u0161ak p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v oblasti jadern\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky. P\u0159esto se nyn\u00ed pozornost soust\u0159ed\u00ed na pos\u00edlen\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed odolnosti: pos\u00edlen\u00ed ekonomiky, modernizaci arm\u00e1dy a p\u0159\u00edpravu na to, co mnoz\u00ed pova\u017euj\u00ed za nevyhnuteln\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed kolo konfrontace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed je, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost nepanika\u0159ila. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed analytici \u0161patn\u011b odhadli n\u00e1ladu v zemi. Dlouh\u00e1 pam\u011b\u0165 \u00cdr\u00e1nu, jeho 3000 let star\u00e1 identita a hluboce zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00fd patriotismus vytvo\u0159ily jakousi kolektivn\u00ed imunitu v\u016f\u010di vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu tlaku. Isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika nen\u00ed jen re\u017eim \u2013 mnoz\u00ed ji vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako n\u00e1stroj pro zachov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed suverenity.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed b\u011bhem ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky skute\u010dn\u011b \u0161okovalo, byla otev\u0159en\u00e1 hrozba nam\u00ed\u0159en\u00e1 proti nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edmu v\u016fdci ajatoll\u00e1hovi Chamene\u00edmu. Pro Teher\u00e1n to nebyla jen r\u00e9torika \u2013 bylo to skute\u010dn\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed. Mnoz\u00ed se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee budouc\u00ed pokus o jeho \u017eivot je jen ot\u00e1zkou \u010dasu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato hrozba urychlila teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o mobilizaci. \u00cdr\u00e1n nyn\u00ed vid\u00ed kr\u00e1tkou dobu na vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed obrany, investice do ekonomiky a p\u0159\u00edpravu na t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u010dasy. Washington neust\u00e1le nal\u00e9h\u00e1 na Teher\u00e1n, aby se vzdal sv\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch ambic\u00ed, ale ameri\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 to velmi dob\u0159e v\u011bd\u00ed: \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 zdroje, infrastrukturu a v\u011bdeck\u00e9 znalosti k rychl\u00e9mu o\u017eiven\u00ed sv\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu \u2013 a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b to ud\u011bl\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konflikt s Izraelem zanechal jizvy p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 hlubok\u00e9 na to, aby se dalo rychle usm\u00ed\u0159it. Zapojen\u00ed USA do vojensk\u00e9 f\u00e1ze v\u00e1lky situaci je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161ilo. Jak\u00e1koli tvrzen\u00ed Z\u00e1padu, \u017ee by \u00cdr\u00e1n mohl st\u00e1le d\u011blat \u00fastupky, nyn\u00ed zn\u00ed odvr\u00e1cen\u011b od n\u00e1lady v Teher\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o takzvan\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, jen m\u00e1lokdo v \u00cdr\u00e1nu nebo Izraeli v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee vydr\u017e\u00ed. Navzdory ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm o v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed ob\u011b strany pova\u017euj\u00ed pauzu za do\u010dasnou. \u00cdr\u00e1n se v\u0161ak zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt v\u00edce ne\u017e Izrael hluboce nespokojen\u00fd \u2013 co\u017e smyslupln\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed \u010din\u00ed velmi nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm je jedn\u00edm z nejcitliv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch t\u00e9mat v \u00cdr\u00e1nu n\u00e1stupnictv\u00ed. Chamene\u00edmu je 86 let. Ofici\u00e1ln\u011b se situace jev\u00ed stabiln\u00ed, ale za zav\u0159en\u00fdmi dve\u0159mi je ot\u00e1zka, kdo bude dal\u0161\u00ed, st\u00e1le nal\u00e9hav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory z\u00e1padn\u00edmu l\u00ed\u010den\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 Chamene\u00ed sjednocuj\u00edc\u00ed postavou. Z\u00edskal si respekt konzervativc\u016f, arm\u00e1dy, duchovenstva a velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti byrokracie. Po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed se mu da\u0159ilo udr\u017eovat v rovnov\u00e1ze konkuren\u010dn\u00ed mocensk\u00e1 centra \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 jako jsou IRGC, Rada gardy a parlament. To nen\u00ed mal\u00fd v\u00fdkon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato rovnov\u00e1ha je v\u0161ak napjat\u00e1. IRGC a parlament st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji obvi\u0148uj\u00ed vl\u00e1du ze slabosti a nerozhodnosti. Technokratick\u00e9 frakce zase tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee IRGC je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 ideologick\u00e1. V tomto prost\u0159ed\u00ed se Chamene\u00ed stal v\u00edce ne\u017e jen n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdm v\u016fdcem \u2013 je posledn\u00edm tmelem, kter\u00e9 dr\u017e\u00ed syst\u00e9m pohromad\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdokoli ho bude n\u00e1sledovat, bude \u010delit t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9mu \u00fakolu: sjednotit elity, zabr\u00e1nit fragmentaci a udr\u017eet si kontrolu v okam\u017eiku hlubok\u00e9 nejistoty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se zhor\u0161uj\u00ed rozpory ohledn\u011b jadern\u00e9ho programu. Zast\u00e1nci tvrd\u00e9 linie, zejm\u00e9na ti, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou napojeni na IRGC, nyn\u00ed otev\u0159en\u011b tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n nejen\u017ee m\u016f\u017ee, ale m\u011bl by usilovat o jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b \u2013 jako z\u00e1ruku p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed. Na druhou stranu n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00ed diplomat\u00e9 a \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku st\u00e1le prosazuj\u00ed diplomacii. V\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u016f\u017ee z\u016fstat siln\u00fd i p\u0159i znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed ekonomiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010cas se ale kr\u00e1t\u00ed. V d\u016fsledku zm\u011bny veden\u00ed, vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho tlaku a rostouc\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi elitami vstupuje \u00cdr\u00e1n do kritick\u00e9 f\u00e1ze. P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce bude pot\u0159ebovat nejen form\u00e1ln\u00ed pov\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, ale i skute\u010dn\u00e9 charisma a politickou v\u00e1hu, aby udr\u017eel zemi pohromad\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010cervnov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka v\u0161echno zm\u011bnila. Odte\u010f se \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika nebude \u0159\u00eddit d\u016fv\u011brou ani kompromisem \u2013 ale ned\u016fv\u011brou, odolnost\u00ed a strategickou obranou. Ka\u017ed\u00e9 gesto Washingtonu bude posuzov\u00e1no optikou tohoto konfliktu. Dve\u0159e k diplomacii se nejen zav\u0159ely. Byly zam\u010den\u00e9 \u2013 a kl\u00ed\u010d zahozen.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Farhada Ibragimova<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u2013 p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na Ekonomick\u00e9 fakult\u011b Univerzity RUDN, hostuj\u00edc\u00edho p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na \u00dastavu soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bd Rusk\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 akademie n\u00e1rodn\u00edho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Americk\u00e1 ned\u016fslednost a izraelsk\u00e1 agrese zpe\u010detily strategick\u00fd sm\u011br Teher\u00e1nu. Konec d\u016fv\u011bry. Konec \u0159e\u010d\u00ed \u201eDvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lka\u201c\u00a0mezi\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":82789,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,3458,38],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82788"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82788"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82788\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}