{"id":82746,"date":"2025-07-04T00:18:51","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T22:18:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=82746"},"modified":"2025-07-03T16:12:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T14:12:00","slug":"michael-snyder-pro-americky-dolar-je-to-nejhorsi-rok-od-ropne-krize-v-roce-1973","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/04\/michael-snyder-pro-americky-dolar-je-to-nejhorsi-rok-od-ropne-krize-v-roce-1973\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Snyder: Pro americk\u00fd dolar je to nejhor\u0161\u00ed rok od ropn\u00e9 krize v roce 1973"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Americk\u00fd dolar st\u00e1le sl\u00e1bne \u2013 a to je v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd probl\u00e9m. Na\u0161e sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 siln\u011b z\u00e1vis\u00ed na siln\u00e9m dolaru. Kdy\u017e je dolar siln\u00fd v\u016f\u010di ostatn\u00edm m\u011bn\u00e1m, na\u0161e v\u00fdplaty jdou d\u00e1l a m\u016f\u017eeme si koupit v\u00edce. Naopak slab\u00fd dolar znamen\u00e1, \u017ee za sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze dostaneme m\u00e9n\u011b \u2013 na\u0161e \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 kles\u00e1. Proto by n\u00e1s v\u0161echny m\u011blo znepokojovat, \u017ee dolar za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 nejhor\u0161\u00ed za\u010d\u00e1tek roku od roku 1973.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd dolar \u2013 kdysi z\u00e1kladn\u00ed k\u00e1men americk\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 s\u00edly \u2013 za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 nejslab\u0161\u00ed za\u010d\u00e1tek roku za v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 let.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nevyzpytateln\u00e1 obchodn\u00ed a ekonomick\u00e1 politika prezidenta Trumpa zp\u016fsobila, \u017ee se investo\u0159i zbavili i dominantn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 m\u011bny.<\/p>\n

Dolarov\u00fd index \u2013 kter\u00fd m\u011b\u0159\u00ed kurz dolaru v\u016f\u010di m\u011bn\u00e1m, jako je euro a libra \u2013 zat\u00edm v roce 2025 klesl o v\u00edce ne\u017e 10 %. Jedn\u00e1 se o nejprud\u0161\u00ed pokles v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku od kolapsu brettonwoodsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu kryt\u00e9ho zlatem v 70. letech 20. stolet\u00ed, kter\u00fd zp\u016fsobil 15% propad dolaru.<\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo \u017eil v roce 1973, si bude pamatovat: zu\u0159ila vietnamsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, dan\u011b byly extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00e9, kriminalita rostla, ekonomika se pot\u00fdkala s probl\u00e9my \u2013 a arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty uvalily ochromuj\u00edc\u00ed ropn\u00e9 embargo.<\/p>\n

Dnes \u010del\u00edme velmi podobn\u00e9mu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i: USA jsou zapleteny do konflikt\u016f na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a na Ukrajin\u011b, st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh exploduje, da\u0148ov\u00e1 z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 vysok\u00e1, v m\u011bstech jako Los Angeles doch\u00e1z\u00ed k nepokoj\u016fm, ekonomick\u00e1 situace se zhor\u0161uje \u2013 a prob\u00edh\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledek: D\u016fv\u011bra v dolar ve sv\u011bt\u011b kles\u00e1 \u2013 a index v pond\u011bl\u00ed op\u011bt klesl:<\/p>\n

Dolarov\u00fd index klesl o 0,15 % na 97,05 \u2013 co\u017e je \u0161est\u00e1 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ta v \u0159ad\u011b. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee se bude jednat o nejhor\u0161\u00ed prvn\u00ed polovinu roku od 70. let.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u0160est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f po sob\u011b jdouc\u00edch ztr\u00e1t dolarov\u00e9ho indexu \u2013 to je de facto n\u00e1rodn\u00ed krize. P\u0159esto o tom t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nikdo nemluv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco slab\u0161\u00ed dolar by mohl zv\u00fd\u0161it konkurenceschopnost americk\u00e9ho exportu, obchodn\u00ed deficit se v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2025 m\u00edsto toho prohloubil na rekordn\u00ed maximum:<\/p>\n

Podle \u00da\u0159adu pro ekonomick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy se deficit zv\u00fd\u0161il o 138,2 miliardy USD, tj. o 44,3 %, na 450,2 miliardy USD, co\u017e je historick\u00e9 maximum. Revidovan\u00e9 \u00fadaje za \u010dtvrt\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed nyn\u00ed ukazuj\u00ed 312,0 miliard USD, co\u017e je n\u00e1r\u016fst z p\u0159edchoz\u00edch 303,9 miliardy USD.<\/em><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se cel\u00e1 ekonomika v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed zmen\u0161ila \u2013 o 0,5 % (anualizov\u00e1no), co\u017e se p\u0159ipisuje slab\u00e9 spot\u0159eb\u011b a dopad\u016fm agresivn\u00ed celn\u00ed politiky Trumpa:<\/p>\n

Podle t\u0159et\u00edho odhadu BEA klesl hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt meziro\u010dn\u011b o 0,5 %. P\u016fvodn\u011b byl hl\u00e1\u0161en pokles pouze o 0,2 %.<\/em><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm d\u016fvodem t\u00e9to slab\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00fdkonnosti je masivn\u00ed propad na americk\u00e9m trhu s nemovitostmi:<\/p>\n

Analyti\u010dka Meredith Whitneyov\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 \u201enejhor\u0161\u00ed rok za n\u011bkolik desetilet\u00ed\u201c. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se prodej zhruba \u010dty\u0159 milion\u016f st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch dom\u016f \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 i v\u00fdrazn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b. To by m\u011blo v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro celkovou ekonomiku.<\/em><\/p>\n

Navzdory t\u00e9to zoufal\u00e9 situaci Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m zat\u00edm odm\u00edt\u00e1 sn\u00ed\u017eit \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. P\u0159edseda Fedu Jerome Powell se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee je v\u0161e v po\u0159\u00e1dku \u2013 co\u017e vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d je prezident Trump st\u00e1le v\u00edce frustrovan\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m: Po skon\u010den\u00ed 43m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edho pozastaven\u00ed spl\u00e1cen\u00ed studentsk\u00fdch p\u016fj\u010dek explodovala m\u00edra nespl\u00e1cen\u00ed:<\/p>\n

V prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2025 bylo 23,7 % v\u0161ech dlu\u017en\u00edk\u016f v prodlen\u00ed se spl\u00e1tkami. V d\u016fsledku toho v\u00edce ne\u017e 2,2 milionu lid\u00ed ztratilo ve sv\u00e9m kreditn\u00edm sk\u00f3re v\u00edce ne\u017e 100 bod\u016f \u2013 a v\u00edce ne\u017e milion dokonce ztratil v\u00edce ne\u017e 150 bod\u016f.<\/em><\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee mnoho lid\u00ed ztr\u00e1c\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k hypot\u00e9k\u00e1m, p\u016fj\u010dk\u00e1m na auto nebo kreditn\u00edm kart\u00e1m \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b 2,4 milionu lid\u00ed s d\u0159\u00edve \u201edobr\u00fdm\u201c \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdm hodnocen\u00edm (nad 620). Jedn\u00e1 se o spole\u010denskou a ekonomickou \u010dasovanou bombu.<\/p>\n

Dohromady to vykresluje obraz naprost\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho chaosu. Nikdo to nem\u016f\u017ee v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zpochybnit.<\/p>\n

A v\u00fdhled na druhou polovinu roku 2025? Je\u0161t\u011b bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad CNN ned\u00e1vno zve\u0159ejnila \u010dl\u00e1nek s n\u00e1zvem \u201eEkonomick\u00e9 peklo p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed toto l\u00e9to\u201c. Jedn\u00edm z d\u016fvod\u016f je: 90denn\u00ed pozastaven\u00ed cel Trumpovou administrativou v\u016f\u010di mnoha obchodn\u00edm partner\u016fm kon\u010d\u00ed 9. \u010dervence.<\/p>\n

Pokud do t\u00e9 doby nebude dosa\u017eeno dohody, mohla by b\u00fdt uvalena masivn\u00ed nov\u00e1 cla na tis\u00edce dov\u00e1\u017een\u00fdch produkt\u016f \u2013 s v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky pro spot\u0159ebitele i firmy.<\/em><\/p>\n

A jako by to nesta\u010dilo, v\u00e1lka mezi Izraelem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem by se mohla kdykoli znovu vyhrotit. Pokud by Teher\u00e1n v reakci na to zablokoval Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, m\u011blo by to zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dopady \u2013 a ropn\u00e9 embargo z roku 1973 by vypadalo jako d\u011btsk\u00e1 narozeninov\u00e1 oslava.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed polovina roku 2025 byla u\u017e tak extr\u00e9mn\u00ed \u2013 ale ta druh\u00e1 m\u011b znepokojuje je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc.<\/p>\n

Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee to bude pln\u00e9 bolestn\u00fdch p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed. A to pro nikoho nedopadne dob\u0159e.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Americk\u00fd dolar st\u00e1le sl\u00e1bne \u2013 a to je v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd probl\u00e9m. Na\u0161e sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 siln\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66480,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1324,371,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82746"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82746"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82746\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66480"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82746"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82746"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82746"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}