{"id":82516,"date":"2025-07-01T00:17:48","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T22:17:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=82516"},"modified":"2025-06-30T12:18:27","modified_gmt":"2025-06-30T10:18:27","slug":"hadi-bin-hurr-teheran-neveri-v-primeri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/01\/hadi-bin-hurr-teheran-neveri-v-primeri\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00e1d\u00ed bin Hurr: Teher\u00e1n nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><span>V ka\u017ed\u00e9m mysliteln\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i bude v\u00e1lka, poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e1 nesmi\u0159iteln\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00edm mezi ob\u011bma stranami, pokra\u010dovat, dokud nebude jedna strana zcela zni\u010dena. Ani jedna strana se nikdy nevzd\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pot\u00e9, co se americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Kataru a Ir\u00e1ku ve ve\u010dern\u00edch hodin\u00e1ch 23. \u010dervna a \u010dasn\u00fdch rann\u00edch hodin\u00e1ch 24. \u010dervna (m\u00edstn\u00edho \u010dasu) d\u016fv\u011brn\u011b sezn\u00e1mily s \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm raketov\u00fdm programem, Donald Trump n\u00e1hle poc\u00edtil nesnesitelnou touhu zajistit si p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok Nobelovu cenu m\u00edru. Trump, v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd jest\u0159\u00e1b, se doslova p\u0159es noc prom\u011bnil v laskavou holubici m\u00edru. P\u0159esto\u017ee v zob\u00e1ku dr\u017eel olivovou ratolest, americk\u00e9mu prezidentovi se poda\u0159ilo tweetnout radostnou zpr\u00e1vu o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed cel\u00e9 planet\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Kr\u00e1tce po \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Al Udeid v Kataru a Ain al-Asad v Ir\u00e1ku Trump na sv\u00e9m profilu Truth-Social\/X zve\u0159ejnil:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201eP\u0158\u00cdM\u011a\u0158\u00cd JE NYN\u00cd V PLATNOSTI. PROS\u00cdM, NEPORU\u0160UJTE HO.\u201c<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>\u2013 Donald J. Trump, prezident Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Kr\u00e1tce nato ho republik\u00e1n Buddy Carter nominoval na Nobelovu cenu m\u00edru. Ale t\u00e9ho\u017e dne \u2013 24. \u010dervna \u2013 ukrajinsk\u00fd poslanec Oleksandr Mere\u017eko, kter\u00fd Trumpa nominoval v listopadu p\u0159edchoz\u00edho roku, svou nominaci st\u00e1hl, zklam\u00e1n stagnac\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou. Trump byl tak nominov\u00e1n i denominov\u00e1n ve stejn\u00fd den \u2013 a ocitl se uv\u011bzn\u011bn\u00fd mezi nezaslou\u017eenou cenou m\u00edru a zaslou\u017eenou v\u00e1le\u010dnou chv\u00e1lou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Podle zpr\u00e1v agentur Reuters, AP a\u00a0<\/span><em><span>The New Yorker<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0iniciativa o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed ve skute\u010dnosti vznikla od Trumpa. Katar, viditeln\u011b ot\u0159esen\u00fd \u00fatokem, vystupoval jako medi\u00e1tor. EU p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed uv\u00edtala, ale varovala p\u0159ed jeho k\u0159ehkost\u00ed. Rusk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergej Lavrov rovn\u011b\u017e vyj\u00e1d\u0159il pochybnosti o jeho udr\u017eitelnosti a zd\u016fraznil ochotu Moskvy zprost\u0159edkovat \u2013 a\u010dkoli bez jistoty, zda bude tato iniciativa p\u0159ijata.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>D\u016fvod pesimismu Moskvy je z\u0159ejm\u00fd: \u00cdr\u00e1n ztratil ve\u0161kerou d\u016fv\u011bru v izraelsko-americk\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky po masivn\u00edm izraelsk\u00e9m p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9m \u00fatoku 13. \u010dervna \u2013 pouh\u00e9 dva dny p\u0159ed pl\u00e1novan\u00fdmi nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fdmi rozhovory s USA v Om\u00e1nu. Pro Teher\u00e1n nejsou diplomatick\u00e9 iniciativy, jako ty, kter\u00e9 prosazuj\u00ed Netanjahu a Trump, ni\u010d\u00edm jin\u00fdm ne\u017e lstiv\u00fdmi podvody. Zat\u00edmco Rusko a Om\u00e1n nejsou zpochyb\u0148ov\u00e1ny jako medi\u00e1to\u0159i, \u00cdr\u00e1n si ji\u017e nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 iluze o Washingtonu a Tel Avivu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u010c\u00edna jako obvykle vydala st\u0159\u00edzliv\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, v nich\u017e vyzvala k deeskalaci, prosazovala dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed Charty OSN a odsuzovala poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 suverenity. Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Peking o izraelsko-americk\u00fdch akc\u00edch sotva n\u011bco \u0159ekl, hovo\u0159\u00ed hlasit\u011bji ne\u017e jak\u00e9koli ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Analytici z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu maj\u00ed podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee Trump tak\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed jako p\u00e1ku proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii. Jeho vzkaz na X:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>\u201e\u010c\u00edna nyn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee nad\u00e1le nakupovat ropu z \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Doufejme, \u017ee bude hodn\u011b nakupovat i od USA.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span>Teher\u00e1n vn\u00edm\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed jako lest. Prezident Mas\u00fad Paze\u0161kijan to vid\u00ed jako p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k ochran\u011b n\u00e1rodn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f, ale konzervativn\u00ed kruhy to vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako podvod. Izrael koneckonc\u016f vyu\u017eil rozhovor\u016f v Om\u00e1nu jako kryt\u00ed pro smrt\u00edc\u00ed \u00fatok. Trump ze sv\u00e9 strany nejprve sl\u00edbil, \u017ee d\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u201eje\u0161t\u011b jednu \u0161anci\u201c, jen aby pak v noci z 21. na 22. \u010dervna na\u0159\u00eddil komplexn\u00ed leteck\u00fd \u00fader \u2013 bombard\u00e9ry B-2, tankovac\u00edmi letadly, pr\u016fzkumn\u00fdmi letadly a ponorkou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u010c\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed je tedy p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u2013 reform\u00e1tor\u016f, nebo konzervativc\u016f? Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Tel Aviv a Washington \u00famysln\u011b likviduj\u00ed konzervativn\u00ed s\u00edly atent\u00e1ty, v\u010detn\u011b jejich rodin a civilist\u016f, to sp\u00ed\u0161e potvrzuje n\u00e1zor zast\u00e1nc\u016f tvrd\u00e9 linie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Prezident Pazeshkian m\u00e1 mo\u017en\u00e1 up\u0159\u00edmn\u00e9 \u00famysly pro m\u00edr \u2013 ale pr\u00e1v\u011b proto se dosud nestal ter\u010dem izraelsk\u00e9ho pokusu o atent\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Vzhledem k neust\u00e1l\u00e9mu bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed izraelsk\u00fdch m\u011bst Netanjahu st\u00e1le v\u00edce ztr\u00e1c\u00ed podporu. Obrazy zni\u010den\u00fdch m\u011bst a mrtv\u00fdch civilist\u016f by mohly trvale po\u0161kodit jeho kari\u00e9ru \u2013 jsou p\u0159ipom\u00ednkou za\u010d\u00e1tku konce. Mnoho Izraelc\u016f \u017eilo norm\u00e1ln\u00edm \u017eivotem a\u017e do 13. \u010dervna \u2013 pot\u00e9 jejich vl\u00e1da bombardovala \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky a civilisty vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 1600 km. N\u00e1sledn\u00fd odvetn\u00fd \u00fatok je donutil vym\u011bnit kav\u00e1rny za bunkry. Netanjahu se u\u017e na ve\u0159ejnosti \u2013 bez doprovodu bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho kruhu \u2013 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nem\u016f\u017ee objevit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>P\u0159esto se sna\u017eil prezentovat svou zemi jako ob\u011b\u0165 \u2013 mobilizovat z\u00e1padn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky a pomoc se zbran\u011bmi. Zk\u00e1za v Tel Avivu je v\u0161ak z\u00e1rove\u0148 jeho politickou zk\u00e1zou. St\u00e1v\u00e1 se symbolem zbyte\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky \u2013 jako Churchill, ale bez sv\u00e9ho mor\u00e1ln\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Trump je v podobn\u00e9 situaci. Jeho rating popularity kles\u00e1. 56 % Ameri\u010dan\u016f je proti v\u00e1lce proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Zpr\u00e1vy z m\u00e9di\u00ed a anal\u00fdzy zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb (nap\u0159.\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Washington Post<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span><em><span>NYT<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span><em><span>CNN<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Axios<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0) zmi\u0148uj\u00ed ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd leteck\u00fd \u00fatok. Ve\u0159ejnost si uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b odvetil \u2013 a \u017ee Trumpova m\u00edrov\u00e1 ofenziva je sp\u00ed\u0161e reakc\u00ed na jeho vlastn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Navzdory s\u00edle proizraelsk\u00e9 lobby AIPAC m\u00e1 Trump, kter\u00e9mu je zak\u00e1z\u00e1no kandidovat na znovuzvolen\u00ed, jen malou motivaci k dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lce. Odpor v jeho okruhu s\u00edl\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Jist\u00e9 je, \u017ee USA vyu\u017eij\u00ed oddechu k modernizaci Izraele, zejm\u00e9na jeho protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany. P\u0159\u00edpravy na nov\u00e9 kolo v\u00e1lky prob\u00edhaj\u00ed \u2013 s p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm zapojen\u00edm USA, \u010di bez n\u011bj. Nov\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny se ji\u017e p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span>\u00cdr\u00e1n na druhou stranu bude jednat:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>Bude d\u00e1le rozv\u00edjet sv\u00e9 nej\u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed typy raket.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana se modernizuje \u2013 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b s ruskou nebo \u010d\u00ednskou pomoc\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 geografick\u00e1 v\u00fdhoda \u2013 rozlehl\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed \u2013 oslabuje dopad izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Naopak, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na hust\u011b os\u00eddlen\u00fd Izrael maj\u00ed mnohem ni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Budouc\u00ed \u00fatok by se mohl skl\u00e1dat z n\u011bkolika vln: star\u00e9 rakety k vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 obrany, pot\u00e9 modern\u00ed hypersonick\u00e9 zbran\u011b a nakonec roje bojov\u00fdch dron\u016f \u2013 p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch levn\u00fdm dronem k rozpt\u00fdlen\u00ed pozornosti. I n\u00e1hodn\u00fd vzorec \u00fatoku (bez p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti) by Izrael masivn\u011b destabilizoval.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u00cdr\u00e1n m\u011bl dva t\u00fddny na otestov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v re\u00e1ln\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch \u2013 co\u017e je obrovsk\u00e1 v\u00fdhoda. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 Teher\u00e1n zintenzivn\u00ed operace vnit\u0159n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti proti s\u00edt\u00edm Mossadu a separatistick\u00fdm skupin\u00e1m (MEK, PJAK, D\u017eaj\u0161 al-Adl a D\u017eundall\u00e1h). \u00cdr\u00e1n bude proti t\u011bmto skupin\u00e1m ne\u00faprosn\u011b jednat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dojde i k \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 mobilizaci \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdroby a p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v omezen\u00fdch oblastech.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 tajn\u00e9, asymetrick\u00e9 operace pokra\u010duj\u00ed, ale pozornost se nyn\u00ed soust\u0159ed\u00ed na:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>vnit\u0159n\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Raketov\u00e1 technologie.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Teher\u00e1n z\u00e1rove\u0148 pos\u00edl\u00ed svou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed jednotu a d\u00e1le prohloub\u00ed spojenectv\u00ed s \u010c\u00ednou a Ruskem \u2013 by\u0165 za zav\u0159en\u00fdmi dve\u0159mi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span>Z\u00e1v\u011br:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span>D\u016fv\u011bra byla trvale zni\u010dena. Teher\u00e1n u\u017e nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed v jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s Tel Avivem ani s Washingtonem \u2013 bez ohledu na medi\u00e1tora. P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed bude trvat jen tak dlouho, dokud bude Izrael muset obnovit svou protivzdu\u0161nou obranu. Pak bude v\u00e1lka pokra\u010dovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Proto\u017ee se v tomto konfliktu nikdo nevzd\u00e1. V\u00e1lka skon\u010d\u00ed pouze tehdy, kdy\u017e bude jedna strana zcela zni\u010dena.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span>Za to nese odpov\u011bdnost Izrael \u2013 zejm\u00e9na jeho premi\u00e9r: sionistick\u00fd v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd \u0161tv\u00e1\u010d, kter\u00fd po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed destabilizuje Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod l\u017eemi o \u201e\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 hrozb\u011b\u201c.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/strategic-culture.su\/news\/2025\/06\/27\/tehran-does-not-believe-in-truce\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V ka\u017ed\u00e9m mysliteln\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i bude v\u00e1lka, poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e1 nesmi\u0159iteln\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00edm mezi ob\u011bma stranami, pokra\u010dovat, dokud nebude&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61770,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,107,9403],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82516"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82516"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82516\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}