{"id":82319,"date":"2025-06-28T00:12:28","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T22:12:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=82319"},"modified":"2025-06-27T12:21:30","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T10:21:30","slug":"nejdulezitejsi-ponauceni-z-iranu-kim-cong-un-mel-ve-vsem-pravdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/28\/nejdulezitejsi-ponauceni-z-iranu-kim-cong-un-mel-ve-vsem-pravdu\/","title":{"rendered":"Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ponau\u010den\u00ed z \u00cdr\u00e1nu? Kim \u010cong-un m\u011bl ve v\u0161em pravdu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 vyjmenovat v\u0161echny skute\u010dn\u011b hrozn\u00e9 precedenty, kter\u00e9 Izrael a USA vytvo\u0159ily sv\u00fdm chov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. Pokud bychom to ale m\u011bli shrnout do jedn\u00e9 v\u011bty, zn\u011blo by to:\u00a0<\/span>\u201eMaxim\u00e1ln\u00ed paranoia a utajov\u00e1n\u00ed jsou jedinou rozumnou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed strategi\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n byl paradoxn\u011b v mnoha ohledech a\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 transparentn\u00ed, rozumn\u00fd a spolupracuj\u00edc\u00ed \u2013 akceptoval mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed sledov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 poskytovalo c\u00edlen\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace, zapojoval se do diplomatick\u00fdch proces\u016f, kter\u00e9 se uk\u00e1zaly jako propracovan\u00e9 pasti, a dodr\u017eoval dohody, kter\u00e9 byly jednostrann\u011b ukon\u010deny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ponau\u010den\u00edm pro jakoukoli rozumnou t\u0159et\u00ed zemi je paradoxn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>b\u00fdt jako Severn\u00ed Korea.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 lekce 1: Mus\u00edte m\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, ale mus\u00edte je vyv\u00edjet mimo jak\u00fdkoli mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dohled<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Kdy\u017e se Severn\u00ed Korea na za\u010d\u00e1tku prvn\u00edho desetilet\u00ed 21. stolet\u00ed rozhodla, \u017ee jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b skute\u010dn\u011b pot\u0159ebuje, trvale odstoupila od Smlouvy o ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, vyhnala v\u0161echny mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed inspektory a odm\u00edtla jak\u00e9koli monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed. Pot\u00e9, v roce 2006, provedla sv\u016fj prvn\u00ed jadern\u00fd test a stala se v podstat\u011b nenapaditelnou.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n se na druhou stranu sna\u017eil \u0159e\u0161it v\u011bci \u201ezodpov\u011bdn\u011b\u201c t\u00edm, \u017ee dodr\u017eoval dohody o z\u00e1ruk\u00e1ch MAAE, a to i b\u011bhem rozv\u00edjen\u00ed jadern\u00fdch kapacit. Pomohlo jim to? Pr\u00e1v\u011b naopak \u2013 ka\u017ed\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed zasa\u017een\u00e9 p\u0159i ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch (Natanz, Fordow, Isfah\u00e1n) bylo \u00fato\u010dn\u00edk\u016fm dob\u0159e zn\u00e1mo d\u00edky prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edm inspekc\u00edm MAAE.\u00a0<\/span>\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 transparentnost si nezaslou\u017eila ochranu, sp\u00ed\u0161e poskytovala vod\u00edtko pro c\u00edlen\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee den p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f MAAE zjistila, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n poprv\u00e9 za 20 let nepln\u00ed sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky \u2013\u00a0<\/span>v podstat\u011b t\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1n odm\u011bnila za jeho desetilet\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce s agenturou<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee Izraeli poskytla diplomatick\u00e9 kryt\u00ed \u00fatoku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ponau\u010den\u00ed je jasn\u00e9:\u00a0<\/span>Chov\u00e1n\u00ed Izraele a Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f nejen potvrdilo z\u00e1sadn\u00ed v\u00fdznam v\u00fdvoje jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed \u2013 a t\u00edm zma\u0159ilo desetilet\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed o ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed \u2013 ale tak\u00e9 dok\u00e1zalo, \u017ee udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed jak\u00e9koli spolupr\u00e1ce nebo transparentnosti b\u011bhem v\u00fdvoje jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed je sebevra\u017eedn\u00e9<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, proto\u017ee pouze pom\u00e1h\u00e1 nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm efektivn\u011bji se na v\u00e1s zam\u011b\u0159ovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lekce 2: Diplomacie je hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e zbyte\u010dn\u00e1<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed usiluje o diplomacii v dobr\u00e9 v\u00ed\u0159e, v roce 2015 souhlasil se Spole\u010dn\u00fdm komplexn\u00edm ak\u010dn\u00edm pl\u00e1nem (JCPOA), zmrazil sv\u016fj jadern\u00fd program a pln\u011b dodr\u017eel v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky v\u016f\u010di MAAE. Jak byla tato spolupr\u00e1ce odm\u011bn\u011bna? V roce 2018 Trump jednostrann\u011b odstoupil od dohody, znovu zavedl sankce a za\u010dal \u0161krtit \u00edr\u00e1nskou ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nci ned\u00e1vno op\u011bt padli do diplomatick\u00e9 pasti, kter\u00e1 se uk\u00e1zala b\u00fdt lest:\u00a0<\/span>fingovan\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed byla pou\u017eita k z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dasu pro spole\u010dn\u011b pl\u00e1novan\u00fd americko-izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, zat\u00edmco tento \u00fatok byl ospravedln\u011bn \u201eneschopnost\u00ed\u201c \u00cdr\u00e1nu akceptovat nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9 podm\u00ednky \u2013 konkr\u00e9tn\u011b \u00fapln\u00e9 zastaven\u00ed obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu a demont\u00e1\u017e v\u0161ech jadern\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed \u2013 podm\u00ednky, kter\u00e9 byly navr\u017eeny tak, aby \u00cdr\u00e1n musel tyto podm\u00ednky odm\u00edtnout, aby mohl b\u00fdt obvin\u011bn z jak\u00e9hokoli \u201ene\u00fasp\u011bchu\u201c rozhovor\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed odhaluje \u00famyslnou zorganizovanost: 12. \u010dervna MAAE \u201en\u00e1hodou\u201c zjistila, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n \u201epoprv\u00e9 za 20 let nedodr\u017euje podm\u00ednky\u201c, a jen o n\u011bkolik hodin pozd\u011bji za\u010daly izraelsk\u00e9 n\u00e1lety, kter\u00e9 byly pl\u00e1nov\u00e1ny ve spolupr\u00e1ci s USA. To jasn\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee cel\u00fd diplomatick\u00fd proces byl jen z\u00e1st\u011brkou pro dlouho pl\u00e1novan\u00fd \u00fatok.<\/span><\/p>\n

Srovnejte to se Severn\u00ed Koreou: Po ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch diplomatick\u00fdch dohod\u00e1ch v 90. letech se Severn\u00ed Korea pou\u010dila z lekce, kterou \u00cdr\u00e1n nepochopil, a\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159eru\u0161ila ve\u0161ker\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 kontakty<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, tajn\u011b dokon\u010dila sv\u016fj jadern\u00fd program a\u00a0<\/span>k jedn\u00e1n\u00edm se vr\u00e1tila a\u017e v letech 2018-2019 \u2013 ozbrojen\u00e1 a nenapadnuteln\u00e1.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pou\u010den\u00ed pro ostatn\u00ed zem\u011b je jasn\u00e9:\u00a0<\/span>Diplomatick\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, i kdy\u017e jsou zraniteln\u00e1, nenab\u00edzej\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou ochranu \u2013 aktivn\u011b p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k va\u0161\u00ed zk\u00e1ze.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Rozhovory \u201ev dobr\u00e9 v\u00ed\u0159e\u201c se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed operacemi shroma\u017e\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed pro nep\u0159\u00edtele. Dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed smluv je interpretov\u00e1no jako slabost. Diplomacie se st\u00e1v\u00e1 past\u00ed pro \u00fatok zezadu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, a\u017e p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011b z\u00e1padn\u00ed mocnost nab\u00eddne zraniteln\u00e9 zemi \u201ejedn\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c, m\u011bla by tato zem\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee je to past \u2013 proto\u017ee na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho precedentu to s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed past je.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lekce 3: Odm\u00edtn\u011bte z\u00e1padn\u00ed technologie a vyvi\u0148te zcela nez\u00e1visl\u00fd syst\u00e9m<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Severn\u00ed Korea je zn\u00e1m\u00e1 t\u00edm, \u017ee m\u00e1 zcela izolovan\u00fd technologick\u00fd ekosyst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd\u00a0<\/span>je imunn\u00ed v\u016f\u010di kybernetick\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm, manipulaci s dodavatelsk\u00fdm \u0159et\u011bzcem a vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 sabot\u00e1\u017ei<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 to v\u0161e jsou \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 vektory, kter\u00e9 v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m konfliktu \u00cdr\u00e1n tvrd\u011b zas\u00e1hly.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n naopak hluboce integroval z\u00e1padn\u00ed technologie do sv\u00e9 infrastruktury. Tento \u201emodern\u00ed\u201c p\u0159\u00edstup se uk\u00e1zal jako katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed: B\u011bhem \u00fatok\u016f \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady zoufale varovaly sv\u00e9 ob\u010dany,\u00a0<\/span>aby smazali WhatsApp<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, proto\u017ee se ob\u00e1valy, \u017ee by data byla sd\u00edlena s Izraelem. Izrael\u0161t\u00ed zpravodaj\u0161t\u00ed d\u016fstojn\u00edci byli schopni\u00a0<\/span>kontaktovat vysok\u00e9 gener\u00e1ly p\u0159\u00edmo na jejich soukrom\u00fdch mobiln\u00edch telefonech<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a vyhro\u017eovat jim a jejich rodin\u00e1m smrt\u00ed \u2013 co\u017e je jasn\u00fdm znamen\u00edm, jak hluboce izraelsk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby pronikly do \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 komunika\u010dn\u00ed infrastruktury.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00datok pagerem na Hizball\u00e1h je stejn\u011b tak odhaluj\u00edc\u00ed: Jeliko\u017e Hizball\u00e1h nem\u011bl vlastn\u00ed technologii, musel se spol\u00e9hat na zahrani\u010dn\u00ed dodavatele \u2013\u00a0<\/span>uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee to byly izraelsk\u00e9 kryc\u00ed spole\u010dnosti<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 v\u00fdbu\u0161niny p\u0159\u00edmo do za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed zabudovaly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nebo si vezm\u011bte syst\u00e9my um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence jako \u201eEvangelium\u201c a \u201eLavender\u201c, kter\u00e9 Izrael pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 proti Palestinc\u016fm v p\u00e1smu Gazy \u2013\u00a0<\/span>tr\u00e9novan\u00e9 s vyu\u017eit\u00edm zachycen\u00fdch soukrom\u00fdch dat, z\u0159ejm\u011b tak\u00e9 z WhatsAppu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Tyto syst\u00e9my transformuj\u00ed konverzace na c\u00edlov\u00e9 parametry pro \u00fatoky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br:\u00a0<\/span>Jak\u00e1koli zahrani\u010dn\u00ed technologie \u2013 zejm\u00e9na z\u00e1padn\u00ed technologie \u2013 je potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm vektorem \u00fatoku.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Izolace Severn\u00ed Koreje je \u010dasto zesm\u011b\u0161\u0148ov\u00e1na jako zaostala, ale ve sv\u011bt\u011b, kde se propojen\u00ed rovn\u00e1 zranitelnosti, se jev\u00ed jako nejpokro\u010dilej\u0161\u00ed forma sebeobrany.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lekce 4: Preventivn\u00ed \u00fadery a c\u00edlen\u00e9 zab\u00edjen\u00ed civilist\u016f jsou nyn\u00ed legitimn\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b d\u011bsiv\u00fdm precedentem t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky je\u00a0<\/span>normalizace preventivn\u00edch \u00fader\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 \u00fatok\u016f ne proto, \u017ee n\u011bkdo p\u0159edstavuje hrozbu, ale proto, \u017ee by\u00a0<\/span>ji v ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku p\u0159edstavovat mohl<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izrael a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ospravedl\u0148ovaly sv\u016fj masivn\u00ed \u00fatok nikoli argumentem, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b vlastn\u00ed, ale argumentem, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>by je nakonec mohl b\u00fdt schopen<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0vyrobit. To v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eilo prah pro vstup do v\u00e1lky:\u00a0<\/span>Jak\u00e1koli zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 by se jednoho dne mohla st\u00e1t hrozbou, mohla b\u00fdt okam\u017eit\u011b napadena.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u017dijeme v jak\u00e9si dystopii ve stylu \u201eMinority Report\u201c. Na rozd\u00edl od knihy u\u017e ani nejsou pot\u0159eba d\u016fkazy o budouc\u00edm zlo\u010dinu \u2013 samotn\u00fd potenci\u00e1l sta\u010d\u00ed k tomu, aby se shodily bomby a zabily tis\u00edce lid\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed je systematick\u00e9 vra\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed civilist\u016f \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b d\u011bt\u00ed. Poslechn\u011bte si nahr\u00e1vku zve\u0159ejn\u011bnou den\u00edkem\u00a0<\/span>Washington Post<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, na kter\u00e9 agent Mossadu vol\u00e1 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu gener\u00e1lovi:<\/span>
\n\u201eM\u016f\u017eu v\u00e1m nyn\u00ed poradit, m\u00e1te 12 hodin na to, abyste utekli se svou \u017eenou a d\u00edt\u011btem. Jinak budete okam\u017eit\u011b na na\u0161em seznamu… Jsme v\u00e1m bl\u00ed\u017e ne\u017e va\u0161e vlastn\u00ed kr\u010dn\u00ed \u017e\u00edla.\u201c<\/span><\/strong>
\nTuto nahr\u00e1vku zjevn\u011b zve\u0159ejnil samotn\u00fd Mossad \u2013\u00a0<\/span>jako \u00famysln\u00e9 zastra\u0161ovac\u00ed poselstv\u00ed sv\u011btu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

A skute\u010dn\u011b to ud\u011blali: byli zavra\u017ed\u011bni civilist\u00e9 \u2013 nejen gener\u00e1lov\u00e9 a jejich rodiny, ale i v\u011bdci, st\u00e1tn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci a politici. Precedent plat\u00ed:\u00a0<\/span>Kdy\u017e je va\u0161e zem\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1na za hrozbu, ka\u017ed\u00fd se st\u00e1v\u00e1 ter\u010dem. Nikdo u\u017e nen\u00ed civilista.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00e1 zem\u011b dnes mus\u00ed p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad vn\u00edm\u00e1 transparentnost jako slabost, spolupr\u00e1ci jako zranitelnost a uspokojen\u00ed se se sou\u010dasn\u00fdm stavem jako v\u00fdzvu k \u00fatoku.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt uk\u00e1zal\u00a0<\/span>, \u017ee spolupr\u00e1ce s mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmi institucemi, akceptov\u00e1n\u00ed sledov\u00e1n\u00ed, dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed dohod nebo pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch technologi\u00ed je strategickou sebevra\u017edou.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Donald Trump dok\u00e1zal nep\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9: Zcela ospravedlnil Kim \u010cong-una.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Arnaud Bertrand<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 vyjmenovat v\u0161echny skute\u010dn\u011b hrozn\u00e9 precedenty, kter\u00e9 Izrael a USA vytvo\u0159ily sv\u00fdm chov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u016f\u010di…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":82320,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1069,1644,502,1503],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82319"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82319"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82319\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":82321,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82319\/revisions\/82321"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}