{"id":82242,"date":"2025-06-27T00:15:18","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T22:15:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=82242"},"modified":"2025-06-26T13:00:54","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T11:00:54","slug":"andrew-korybko-pet-duvodu-proc-se-iran-a-izrael-dohodly-na-primeri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/27\/andrew-korybko-pet-duvodu-proc-se-iran-a-izrael-dohodly-na-primeri\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: P\u011bt d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d se \u00cdr\u00e1n a Izrael dohodly na p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Nikdo to ne\u010dekal.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n a Izrael p\u0159ekvapily sv\u011bt t\u00edm, \u017ee\u00a0se dohodly na p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>p\u0159esn\u011b v okam\u017eiku, kdy v\u011bt\u0161ina pozorovatel\u016f o\u010dek\u00e1vala, \u017ee se jejich v\u00e1lka vymkne kontrole. Trumpovo rozhodnut\u00ed\u00a0bombardovat n\u011bkolik jadern\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a jeho n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 flirtov\u00e1n\u00ed se zm\u011bnou re\u017eimu je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dilo, \u017ee se chyst\u00e1 eskalovat americk\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed do konfliktu bez ohledu na to, zda \u00cdr\u00e1n podnikne odvetn\u00e9 kroky proti region\u00e1ln\u00edm americk\u00fdm z\u00e1kladn\u00e1m, nebo zda Izrael provede provokaci pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou, aby to ospravedlnil. Zde je d\u016fvod, pro\u010d se v\u0161ichni m\u00edsto toho dohodli na p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed:<\/p>\n

———-<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \u00cdr\u00e1n a Izrael si navz\u00e1jem zp\u016fsobily nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9 \u0161kody<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Hlavn\u00ed m\u00e9dia dosud tvrdila, \u017ee Izrael zp\u016fsobil \u00cdr\u00e1nu obrovsk\u00e9 \u0161kody, zat\u00edmco\u00a0alternativn\u00ed m\u00e9dia\u00a0<\/a>dosud tvrdila, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n zp\u016fsobil Izraeli obrovsk\u00e9 \u0161kody, a pro jednou m\u011bli oba prav\u00fd n\u00e1zor, i kdy\u017e si navz\u00e1jem ne\u010destn\u011b pop\u00edrali tvrzen\u00ed. Realita je takov\u00e1, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n a Izrael si navz\u00e1jem zp\u016fsobili nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9 \u0161kody po necel\u00fdch dvou t\u00fddnech \u00fader\u016f. Ani jeden z nich proto nedok\u00e1zal vydr\u017eet o moc d\u00e9le, co\u017e nevyhnuteln\u011b vedlo bu\u010f k v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 eskalaci, nebo k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Trumpova administrativa necht\u011bla dal\u0161\u00ed velkou region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Eskalaci se poda\u0159ilo zabr\u00e1nit pouze proto, \u017ee Trumpova administrativa necht\u011bla dal\u0161\u00ed velkou region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii, kter\u00e1 by mohla urychlit \u00fapadek hegemonie USA a z\u00e1rove\u0148 jim zabr\u00e1nit v \u201eoto\u010den\u00ed (zp\u011bt) k (v\u00fdchodn\u00ed) Asii\u201c za \u00fa\u010delem siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edho zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed \u010c\u00edny. Proto pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b Izraeli sd\u011blila, \u017ee v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nebude st\u00e1t za nimi, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u00cdr\u00e1nu pohrozila nadm\u011brnou (jadernou?) odvetou, pokud budou napadeny jeho bl\u00edzk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by odradila eskalaci z obou stran a umo\u017enila p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Trump ne\u010dekan\u011b vzep\u0159el izraelsk\u00e9 lobby a neokonzervativc\u016fm<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Mnoho pozorovatel\u016f dosp\u011blo k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee Trumpovo rozhodnut\u00ed bombardovat \u00cdr\u00e1n signalizovalo jeho naprostou kapitulaci p\u0159ed izraelskou lobby a neokonzervativci, ale nemohli se v\u00edce m\u00fdlit. Daleko od toho, aby se vzdal jejich po\u017eadavk\u016f na dal\u0161\u00ed \u201e\u0161okuj\u00edc\u00ed a \u00factyhodnou\u201c v\u00e1lku za zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu, kter\u00e1 mohla zahrnovat nasazen\u00ed voj\u00e1k\u016f v ter\u00e9nu a dokonce i jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, se mu n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem poda\u0159ilo p\u0159im\u011bt Izrael, aby p\u0159estal bombardovat \u00cdr\u00e1n, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b hrozbou, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b eskalace konfliktu to nech\u00e1 napospas osudu. \u00cdr\u00e1n pot\u00e9 n\u00e1sledoval jeho p\u0159\u00edkladu a vstoupilo v platnost p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. USA prezentovaly bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu jako strategick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          N\u00e1zory na to, zda americk\u00e9 bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u011bkolika jadern\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dos\u00e1hlo sv\u00e9ho c\u00edle, kter\u00fdm bylo zni\u010den\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu, nebo ho alespo\u0148 odsunulo o mnoho let zp\u011bt, co\u017e by mohlo \u00cdr\u00e1n vy\u0159adit z geopolitick\u00e9 hry, se sm\u00ed\u0161ily. USA to v\u0161ak i tak dok\u00e1zaly prezentovat jako strategick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch. To dalo Trumpovi \u201ez\u00e1chrannou\u201c \u00fanikovou rampu pro deeskalaci konfliktu spekulativn\u00edm tlakem na Izrael, aby zastavil bombardovac\u00ed kampa\u0148, a n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1nu, aby s nimi souhlasil, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo velk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce, kter\u00e9 se ob\u00e1val.<\/p>\n

            \n
          1. Trump je naprosto posedl\u00fd z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00edm Nobelovy ceny m\u00edru<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            A kone\u010dn\u011b, Trumpovo ego pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b sehr\u00e1lo v\u00fdznamnou roli v jeho rozhodnut\u00ed donutit \u00cdr\u00e1n a Izrael (ka\u017ed\u00fd jin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem) k dohod\u011b o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, proto\u017ee je\u00a0naprosto posedl\u00fd\u00a0<\/a>z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00edm Nobelovy ceny m\u00edru, v kterou douf\u00e1, \u017ee mu bude v d\u016fsledku toho ud\u011blena. P\u0159esto\u017ee sehr\u00e1l roli v rozpout\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu t\u00edm, \u017ee nechal Izrael bombardovat \u00cdr\u00e1n 61. den sv\u00e9 60denn\u00ed lh\u016fty pro dal\u0161\u00ed jadernou dohodu, na to v\u0161e by v\u00fdbor mohl pohodln\u011b zapomenout, pokud by p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed bylo dodr\u017eeno a povedlo by k trval\u00e9mu m\u00edru.<\/p>\n

            ———-<\/p>\n

            P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed by v\u0161ak nemuselo platit, v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by USA nemusely pln\u011b podporovat obnoven\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9ho bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed, pokud by za to mohl z\u00e1padn\u00ed Jeruzal\u00e9m. USA by tak\u00e9 mohly usilovat o zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu nep\u0159\u00edmo, i kdy\u017e by p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed platilo. V nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed mohlo v\u00e9st k trval\u00e9mu m\u00edru prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>jadern\u00e9 dohody, kter\u00e1 by vy\u017eadovala zapojen\u00ed Ruska (nap\u0159\u00edklad odstran\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho paliva z \u00cdr\u00e1nu). Putin by si proto v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zaslou\u017eil i Nobelovu cenu m\u00edru.<\/p>\n

            Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

            \"\"<\/p>\n

             <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            Nikdo to ne\u010dekal. \u00cdr\u00e1n a Izrael p\u0159ekvapily sv\u011bt t\u00edm, \u017ee\u00a0se dohodly na p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u00a0p\u0159esn\u011b v okam\u017eiku,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":82243,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[7327,1042,107,4199],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82242"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82242"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82242\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82242"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82242"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82242"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}