{"id":82199,"date":"2025-06-26T04:48:23","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T02:48:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=82199"},"modified":"2025-06-26T04:48:23","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T02:48:23","slug":"lucas-leiroz-iransko-izraelske-primeri-zmirnuje-napeti-ale-konflikt-neukoncuje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/26\/lucas-leiroz-iransko-izraelske-primeri-zmirnuje-napeti-ale-konflikt-neukoncuje\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: \u00cdr\u00e1nsko-izraelsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed zm\u00edr\u0148uje nap\u011bt\u00ed, ale konflikt neukon\u010duje"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00cdr\u00e1n a Izrael dos\u00e1hly k\u0159ehk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed po dvou t\u00fddnech intenzivn\u00edch boj\u016f.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Po t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvou t\u00fddnech intenzivn\u00edho boje St\u00e1t Izrael a \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika kone\u010dn\u011b dos\u00e1hly dohody o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. P\u0159esto\u017ee bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed bylo zastaveno, nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi ob\u011bma stranami p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1 a existuje vysok\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti dojde k nov\u00fdm poty\u010dk\u00e1m. \u010c\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e1 deeskalace konfliktu je v\u0161ak pozitivn\u00edm znamen\u00edm pro ob\u011b strany, kter\u00e9 se zotavuj\u00ed z dopad\u016f dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00edch boj\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izraelsk\u00e1 agrese proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu 13. \u010dervna zah\u00e1jila takzvanou \u201e\u00a0<\/span>dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lku\u201c.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Tel Aviv a Teher\u00e1n zah\u00e1jily intenzivn\u00ed bombardovac\u00ed v\u00e1lku na dlouh\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla mnoho negativn\u00edch dopad\u016f na ob\u011b strany. Izrael si pro svou operaci stanovil dva c\u00edle: neutralizovat \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program a podn\u00edtit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd lid k rebelii proti veden\u00ed ajatoll\u00e1ha Al\u00edho Chamene\u00edho. Po dvan\u00e1cti dnech boj\u016f se ani jednoho z t\u011bchto c\u00edl\u016f nepoda\u0159ilo dos\u00e1hnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izraelsk\u00e1 agrese byla nejprve zah\u00e1jena kombinovan\u00fdmi \u00fadery st\u00edha\u010dek a sabot\u00e1\u017en\u00edmi operacemi s drony a vyu\u017eit\u00edm zpravodajsk\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f uvnit\u0159 \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed dopad agrese byl zna\u010dn\u00fd, Izrael zni\u010dil podstatnou \u010d\u00e1st \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch obrann\u00fdch kapacit. To dalo Izraeli v\u00fdhodu v operac\u00edch hlubok\u00e9ho pronik\u00e1n\u00ed do \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru \u2013 a\u010dkoli v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m okam\u017eiku Izrael nem\u011bl \u201eplnou kontrolu nad vzdu\u0161n\u00fdm prostorem\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory slabin\u00e1m na leti\u0161ti v\u0161ak \u00cdr\u00e1n prok\u00e1zal svou raketovou p\u0159evahu, kdy\u017e zas\u00e1hl Izrael postupn\u00fdmi vlnami balistick\u00fdch raket a zp\u016fsobil masivn\u00ed dopady na vojensk\u00e9 a strategick\u00e9 objekty. Tel Aviv zavedl p\u0159\u00edsnou vojenskou cenzuru, kter\u00e1 br\u00e1n\u00ed adekv\u00e1tn\u00edmu posouzen\u00ed \u0161kod zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch \u00cdr\u00e1nem, ale je zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee rakety persk\u00e9 zem\u011b zni\u010dily za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pat\u0159\u00edc\u00ed ministerstvu obrany, zpravodajsk\u00fdm slu\u017eb\u00e1m, baterie Iron Dome a elektr\u00e1rn\u00e1m na cel\u00e9m izraelsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s t\u00edm zah\u00e1jil rozs\u00e1hlou kontrarozv\u011bdnou kampa\u0148, v r\u00e1mci kter\u00e9 zat\u00fdkal a popravoval agenty Mossadu na sv\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed. Strategi\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 rozv\u011bdky bylo kooptovat etnick\u00e9 men\u0161iny a imigranty. Mnoho sabot\u00e9r\u016f byli cizinci, zejm\u00e9na Afgh\u00e1nci a Indov\u00e9. Eliminace t\u011bchto agent\u016f zp\u016fsobila, \u017ee pravidelnost a \u00fa\u010dinnost izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f den ode dne klesala.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izrael evidentn\u011b nebyl p\u0159ipraven na intenzitu syrsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f. P\u0159esto\u017ee m\u011bl dostate\u010dnou kapacitu pro pohyb v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m vzdu\u0161n\u00e9m prostoru, m\u011bl vzhledem k \u010detnosti balistick\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f jen velmi malou opera\u010dn\u00ed autonomii. To vyvolalo zoufalstv\u00ed mezi izraelsk\u00fdmi elitami a vedlo k \u017e\u00e1dosti o pomoc od USA. A\u010dkoli se Donald Trump zpo\u010d\u00e1tku odm\u00edtal zapojit, nakonec podlehl siln\u00e9 \u017eidovsk\u00e9 lobby ve sv\u00e9 zemi.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee Trump vm\u011b\u0161oval do konfliktu, zachoval americkou obavu vyhnout se eskalaci. Washington provedl t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 symbolick\u00fd \u00fatok na n\u011bkter\u00e1 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00fd m\u011bl jen mal\u00fd dopad a nezp\u016fsobil \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 ob\u011bti. Teher\u00e1n p\u0159edt\u00edm evakuoval sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny, tak\u017ee nehrozilo velk\u00e9 riziko. Trump tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00fd \u00fatok \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program \u201ezni\u010dil\u201c, ale tuto informaci n\u011bkolik expert\u016f zpochyb\u0148uje, proto\u017ee je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9, aby do \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch podzemn\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed proniklo bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edrn\u00fdm bombardov\u00e1n\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n reagoval na americk\u00fd \u00fatok symbolickou odvetou a odp\u00e1lil rakety na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Kataru a Ir\u00e1ku. Washington tyto z\u00e1kladny p\u0159edem tak\u00e9 evakuoval, \u010d\u00edm\u017e zabr\u00e1nil tomu, aby \u00fatok zp\u016fsobil ob\u011bti. Trump neprojevil \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z\u00e1jem reagovat na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed a m\u00edsto vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed zprost\u0159edkoval dohodu o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed mezi ob\u011bma stranami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izrael dohodu okam\u017eit\u011b p\u0159ijal, ale poru\u0161il ji b\u011bhem prvn\u00edch n\u011bkolika hodin od jej\u00edho vstupu v platnost. \u00cdr\u00e1n \u010dekal s definitivn\u00ed odpov\u011bd\u00ed a\u017e do r\u00e1na 24. P\u0159edt\u00edm reagoval na izraelsk\u00e9 poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed intenzivn\u00edm bombardov\u00e1n\u00edm po cel\u00e9m Izraeli. Prozat\u00edm, a\u010dkoli je k\u0159ehk\u00e1, dohoda z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v platnosti a nejsou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy o poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nakonec \u00cdr\u00e1n i Izrael utrp\u011bly t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty. Byly to dny vysoce intenzivn\u00edch boj\u016f na d\u00e1lku, kter\u00e9 negativn\u011b ovlivnily ob\u011b strany. D\u00e1 se \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee do\u0161lo k jak\u00e9si \u201evojensk\u00e9 rem\u00edze\u201c, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu, \u017ee Izrael zni\u010dil zna\u010dnou \u010d\u00e1st \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, ale byl tak\u00e9 hluboce zasa\u017een bombardov\u00e1n\u00edm persk\u00e9 zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu, na politick\u00e9 \u00farovni Izrael nepochybn\u011b prohr\u00e1l. Zem\u011b nedos\u00e1hla c\u00edl\u016f stanoven\u00fdch pro svou vojenskou kampa\u0148. \u00cdr\u00e1n nejen\u017ee zachoval sv\u016fj jadern\u00fd program \u2013\u00a0<\/span>jak ji\u017e z\u00e1padn\u00ed noviny p\u0159iznaly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 ale tak\u00e9 pozastavil spolupr\u00e1ci s MAAE a zak\u00e1zal mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed inspekce sv\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu. V praxi si nyn\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u016f\u017ee, pokud chce, kdykoli vyrobit atomovou bombu, ani\u017e by k tomuto procesu m\u011bl p\u0159\u00edstup jak\u00fdkoli mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pozorovatel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc v \u00cdr\u00e1nu nedo\u0161lo k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu. Naopak, Isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika vy\u0161la z konfliktu siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Opozi\u010dn\u00ed v\u016fdci obnovili vazby s vl\u00e1dou a ignorovali sv\u00e9 rozd\u00edly, aby podpo\u0159ili zemi proti spole\u010dn\u00e9mu nep\u0159\u00edteli. V ulic\u00edch Teher\u00e1nu prob\u00edhaj\u00ed demonstrace – ne proti vl\u00e1d\u011b, ale na podporu ajatoll\u00e1ha a na podporu vojensk\u00fdch akc\u00ed. Izrael doufal, \u017ee po\u0161tv\u00e1rn\u00ed lid proti vl\u00e1d\u011b, ale dos\u00e1hl prav\u00e9ho opaku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato politick\u00e1 realita se v\u0161ak v Izraeli ned\u011bje. Benjamin Netanjahu \u010del\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b siln\u00e9 opozici a jeho politi\u010dt\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9 d\u011blaj\u00ed v\u0161e pro to, aby ho svrhli a zatkli. Jsou proti n\u011bmu zah\u00e1jena trestn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a tak\u00e9 \u017e\u00e1dosti o impeachment. V\u00e1lka je pro Netanjahua zp\u016fsobem, jak se udr\u017eet u moci a uklidnit opozici. Je v\u0161ak t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci, zda izraelsk\u00fd v\u016fdce dok\u00e1\u017ee odolat dopad\u016fm dal\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017eky \u2013 zem\u011b ji\u017e selhala ve sv\u00e9m ta\u017een\u00ed v Gaze, kter\u00e9 je\u0161t\u011b neskon\u010dilo, a to ned\u00e1vn\u00fdmi eskaluj\u00edc\u00edmi protesty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc se v Izraeli objevuj\u00ed zn\u00e1mky krize. V posledn\u00edch dvou t\u00fddnech uprchlo ze zem\u011b po mo\u0159i na Kypr t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 1 000 lid\u00ed. St\u00e1le v\u00edce lid\u00ed chce emigrovat. Kvalita \u017eivota drasticky kles\u00e1 a bezpe\u010dnost se jen zhor\u0161uje, proto\u017ee zem\u011b je nad\u00e1le ve v\u00e1lce s Ham\u00e1sem a H\u00fat\u00edy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nakonec byly n\u00e1klady na v\u00e1lku \u0161patn\u00e9 pro ob\u011b strany, ale hor\u0161\u00ed pro Izrael – co\u017e zhor\u0161ilo vnit\u0159n\u00ed krizi a nepoda\u0159ilo se mu dos\u00e1hnout jeho c\u00edl\u016f. Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je, \u017ee dojde k neust\u00e1l\u00e9mu poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a ob\u011b strany budou v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti znovu bojovat, ale s ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed intenzitou, kter\u00e1 nedos\u00e1hne \u00farovn\u011b posledn\u00edch dvou t\u00fddn\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz,<\/a> \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Centra pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cdr\u00e1n a Izrael dos\u00e1hly k\u0159ehk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed po dvou t\u00fddnech intenzivn\u00edch boj\u016f. Po t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvou t\u00fddnech…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":82200,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,4199,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82199"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82199"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82199\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82200"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}