{"id":82167,"date":"2025-06-26T00:18:34","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T22:18:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=82167"},"modified":"2025-06-25T12:53:26","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T10:53:26","slug":"osn-tise-snizuje-sve-populacni-prognozy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/26\/osn-tise-snizuje-sve-populacni-prognozy\/","title":{"rendered":"OSN ti\u0161e sni\u017euje sv\u00e9 popula\u010dn\u00ed progn\u00f3zy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed n\u00e1m bylo \u0159\u00edk\u00e1no, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem sv\u011bta je p\u0159elidn\u011bn\u00ed. Od Thomase Malthuse v 18. stolet\u00ed a\u017e po <\/span>Popula\u010dn\u00ed bombu<\/span><\/em>\u00a0v 60. letech 20. stolet\u00ed zn\u011bla v\u017edycky hrozn\u00e1 varov\u00e1n\u00ed: v\u00edce lid\u00ed povede k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu hladomoru, v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed chudob\u011b a v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu ni\u010den\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Stalo se v\u0161ak n\u011bco ne\u010dekan\u00e9ho. Demografick\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty se zm\u011bnily \u2013 a Organizace spojen\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f, sv\u011btov\u011b nejcitovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed autorita v oblasti popula\u010dn\u00edch progn\u00f3z, si toho v\u0161imla.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u017e doned\u00e1vna jeho modely p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daly, \u017ee sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace bude po cel\u00e9 21. stolet\u00ed d\u00e1le r\u016fst a do roku 2100 dos\u00e1hne vrcholu t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 11 miliard lid\u00ed. Ve sv\u00fdch reviz\u00edch z let 2022 a 2024 v\u0161ak OSN sv\u00e9 projekce ti\u0161e sn\u00ed\u017eila. Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odhad p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 vrchol pouze 10,3 miliardy lid\u00ed \u2013 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve, kolem roku 2084.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e se to st\u00e1le zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo, p\u0159edstavuje to jasn\u00fd odklon od pojmu \u201enekone\u010dn\u00fd r\u016fst\u201c \u2013 p\u0159edpokladu, na kter\u00e9m je zalo\u017eeno mnoho politick\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00ed, investic a institucion\u00e1ln\u00edho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed. Skute\u010dn\u00fd probl\u00e9m nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 jen v tom, \u017ee OSN nyn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 m\u00e9n\u011b lid\u00ed \u2013 mnoho demograf\u016f se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee i tato \u010d\u00edsla jsou st\u00e1le p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vysok\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kolaps plodnosti<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Posun v progn\u00f3z\u00e1ch nen\u00ed zp\u016fsoben t\u00edm, \u017ee by lid\u00e9 um\u00edrali rychleji. Pr\u00e1v\u011b naopak \u2013 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 d\u00e9lka \u017eivota se ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b region\u016f sv\u011bta nad\u00e1le zvy\u0161uje, i kdy\u017e jen m\u00edrn\u011b. Hlavn\u00ed zm\u011bnou je, \u017ee lid\u00e9 maj\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b d\u011bt\u00ed \u2013 v\u00fdrazn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 1970 byla glob\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u00edra plodnosti (pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd po\u010det d\u011bt\u00ed, kter\u00e9 \u017eena za \u017eivot porod\u00ed) p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u011bt. Dnes je to 2,25 \u2013 a st\u00e1le kles\u00e1. V t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 70 % v\u0161ech zem\u00ed sv\u011bta je m\u00edra plodnosti ji\u017e pod tzv. \u201em\u00edrou n\u00e1hrady\u201c \u2013 \u00farovn\u00ed pot\u0159ebnou k udr\u017een\u00ed stabiln\u00ed populace. V industrializovan\u00fdch zem\u00edch se tato m\u00edra pohybuje kolem 2,1 d\u00edt\u011bte na \u017eenu a v zem\u00edch s vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00famrtnost\u00ed je m\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pokles porodnosti prob\u00edh\u00e1 rychleji, ne\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina expert\u016f o\u010dek\u00e1vala. Z tohoto d\u016fvodu OSN v posledn\u00edch p\u011bti letech dvakr\u00e1t revidovala sv\u00e9 modely. Ne v\u0161ichni experti se v\u0161ak shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee tyto \u00fapravy jsou dostate\u010dn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem posledn\u00edho desetilet\u00ed n\u011bkolik nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch v\u00fdzkumn\u00fdch skupin vypracovalo alternativn\u00ed progn\u00f3zy. V\u011bt\u0161ina z nich p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee m\u00edra porodnosti bude klesat rychleji, ne\u017e odhaduje OSN. Nap\u0159\u00edklad t\u00fdm z\u00a0<\/span>Institutu pro metriky a hodnocen\u00ed zdrav\u00ed<\/span><\/em>\u00a0(IHME) Washingtonsk\u00e9 univerzity v roce 2020 zp\u016fsobil rozruch, kdy\u017e p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace dos\u00e1hne vrcholu kolem roku 2064, kdy dos\u00e1hne n\u011bco m\u00e1lo p\u0159es 9 miliard a do roku 2100 klesne na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 8,8 miliardy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Wolfgang Lutz, jeden z nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch demograf\u016f, tak\u00e9 publikoval v\u00fdpo\u010dty s d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm vrcholem. Lutz\u016fv t\u00fdm z Wittgensteinova centra pro demografii a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed lidsk\u00fd kapit\u00e1l zakl\u00e1d\u00e1 sv\u00e9 modely na trendech v oblasti vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed a urbanizace, kter\u00e9 \u00fazce souvisej\u00ed s plodnost\u00ed. Ve studii publikovan\u00e9 v roce 2024, zalo\u017een\u00e9 na pr\u016fzkumech v\u00edce ne\u017e milionu \u017een v subsaharsk\u00e9 Africe, Lutz a jeho spoluauto\u0159i zjistili, \u017ee m\u00edra plodnosti zde tak\u00e9 kles\u00e1 rychleji, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v d\u016fsledku rostouc\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed \u017een.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Kanad\u0161t\u00ed novin\u00e1\u0159i Darrell Bricker a John Ibbitson ve sv\u00e9\u00a0knize\u00a0<\/span>Empty Planet z roku 2019 shrnuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 argumenty pro ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3zy. A\u010dkoli nejsou akademick\u00fdmi demografy, provedli hloubkov\u00e9 rozhovory a fokusn\u00ed skupiny se \u017eenami v p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b tuctu zem\u00ed o jejich postoj\u00edch k rodin\u011b a touze m\u00edt d\u011bti. Jejich z\u00e1v\u011br: Pokles porodnosti m\u00e1 jak kulturn\u00ed, tak ekonomick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny \u2013 p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e kulturn\u00ed faktory pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed porodnost je\u0161t\u011b prud\u010deji a rychleji, ne\u017e se d\u0159\u00edve myslelo.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eP\u0159edpov\u011bdi jsou obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 \u2013 zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e se t\u00fdkaj\u00ed budoucnosti\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Tuto fr\u00e1zi zavedl americk\u00fd filozof Yogi Berra. V\u0161echny modely proto pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnostn\u00ed varianty, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed \u0161irok\u00e9 spektrum mo\u017en\u00fdch budoucnost\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco medi\u00e1nov\u00fd odhad OSN p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 vrchol 10,3 miliardy lid\u00ed v roce 2084, jejich model zahrnuje i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s n\u00edzkou porodnost\u00ed: V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace dos\u00e1hla vrcholu 9,5 miliardy kolem roku 2060 a pot\u00e9 by klesala. Tato trajektorie je v\u00edce v souladu s akademick\u00fdmi progn\u00f3zami.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161echno se to\u010d\u00ed kolem Afriky<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

V zem\u00edch, kde \u017eij\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b t\u0159i \u010dtvrtiny sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace, m\u00edra porodnosti ji\u017e klesla na \u00farove\u0148 pot\u0159ebnou k reprodukci nebo pod ni. V dal\u0161\u00edch 15 % zem\u00ed je m\u00edra plodnosti jen m\u00edrn\u011b nad \u00farovn\u00ed pot\u0159ebnou k reprodukci a rychle kles\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pouze asi dvacet zem\u00ed v subsaharsk\u00e9 Africe a \u010d\u00e1stech jihoz\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie m\u00e1 st\u00e1le velmi vysokou m\u00edru porodnosti. P\u0159esto\u017ee tyto zem\u011b tvo\u0159\u00ed pouze asi 11 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace, budou se pod\u00edlet na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ve\u0161ker\u00e9m budouc\u00edm r\u016fstu, dokud nebude dosa\u017eeno glob\u00e1ln\u00edho vrcholu. Mezi spole\u010dn\u00e9 charakteristiky t\u011bchto zem\u00ed pat\u0159\u00ed n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fd fundamentalismus (zejm\u00e9na isl\u00e1msk\u00fd fundamentalismus), n\u00edzk\u00e1 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed integrace a slab\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed struktury.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b i v t\u011bchto zem\u00edch kles\u00e1 porodnost \u2013 by\u0165 v r\u016fzn\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e. Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st debaty o budouc\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 populaci se to\u010d\u00ed kolem toho, jak rychle a do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry budou tyto zem\u011b n\u00e1sledovat glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trend posledn\u00edch 50 let.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro\u010d je to d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Popula\u010dn\u00ed projekce, na kter\u00e9 se spol\u00e9h\u00e1me, ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed v\u0161e od urbanistick\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed a penzijn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f a\u017e po imigra\u010dn\u00ed politiku, v\u00fdstavbu \u0161kol, vojenskou brannou povinnost a dlouhodob\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd rozvoj. Odchylka o jednu miliardu lid\u00ed nebo dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed nen\u00ed statistick\u00e1 zaokrouhlovac\u00ed chyba \u2013 je to seismick\u00fd posun v matematick\u00fdch z\u00e1kladech na\u0161eho budouc\u00edho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto mnoho instituc\u00ed st\u00e1le funguje v re\u017eimu autopilota a p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 neust\u00e1le rostouc\u00ed populaci \u2013 se st\u00e1le rostouc\u00edm po\u010dtem pracovn\u00edk\u016f, spot\u0159ebitel\u016f a da\u0148ov\u00fdch poplatn\u00edk\u016f. Data v\u0161ak vypov\u00eddaj\u00ed jin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh: Tato \u00e9ra se rychle bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed ke konci. Na n\u011bkter\u00fdch m\u00edstech je tomu ji\u017e nyn\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad \u010c\u00edna zaznamenala v posledn\u00edch t\u0159ech letech pokles populace.<\/span><\/p>\n

To, co z toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 \u2013 a jak se s t\u00edm vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1me \u2013 je jedn\u00edm z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch, ale nejm\u00e9n\u011b pochopen\u00fdch v\u00fdvoj\u016f na\u0161\u00ed doby.<\/span><\/p>\n

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O autorovi:<\/span><\/strong>
\nBill King<\/strong> je podnikatel, pr\u00e1vn\u00edk a b\u00fdval\u00fd autor n\u00e1zorov\u00fdch koment\u00e1tor\u016f a \u010dlen redak\u010dn\u00ed rady den\u00edku\u00a0<\/span>Houston Chronicle<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Zast\u00e1val volen\u00e9 i jmenovan\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 funkce, v\u010detn\u011b funkce starosty sv\u00e9ho rodn\u00e9ho m\u011bsta. Pravideln\u011b p\u00ed\u0161e o politick\u00fdch a soci\u00e1ln\u00edch t\u00e9matech a v roce 2015 vydal antologii\u00a0<\/span>Unapologetically Moderate<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b spravuje blog\u00a0<\/span>BillKingBlog.com<\/span><\/em>\u00a0a je \u010dlenem\u00a0<\/span>Bakerova institutu<\/span><\/em>\u00a0na Rice University v Houstonu.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed n\u00e1m bylo \u0159\u00edk\u00e1no, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem sv\u011bta je p\u0159elidn\u011bn\u00ed. Od Thomase Malthuse…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67734,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,186,2728],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82167"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82167"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82167\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}