{"id":82069,"date":"2025-06-24T00:39:40","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T22:39:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=82069"},"modified":"2025-06-23T20:25:07","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T18:25:07","slug":"uriel-araujo-americka-intervence-v-iransko-izraelskem-konfliktu-muze-znicit-trumpuv-maga-a-zhroutit-ceny-plynu-a-trhy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/24\/uriel-araujo-americka-intervence-v-iransko-izraelskem-konfliktu-muze-znicit-trumpuv-maga-a-zhroutit-ceny-plynu-a-trhy\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Americk\u00e1 intervence v \u00edr\u00e1nsko-izraelsk\u00e9m konfliktu m\u016f\u017ee zni\u010dit Trump\u016fv \u201eMAGA\u201c a zhroutit ceny plynu a trhy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Eskalace nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem s t\u00edm, \u017ee Washington se pust\u00ed do v\u00e1lky, u n\u00ed\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 naru\u0161en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen ropy a destabilizace americk\u00e9ho dolaru, a t\u00edm zpochybn\u011bn\u00ed Trumpovy obchodn\u00ed agendy zalo\u017een\u00e9 na celn\u00edch sazb\u00e1ch. Tento krok, prosazovan\u00fd obrann\u00fdm sektorem a lobby, m\u016f\u017ee vyvolat americkou recesi, podkopat Trumpovy sliby z programu \u201eMAGA\u201c a zhatit jeho prezidentstv\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Stra\u0161idlo eskalace konfliktu mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem, kter\u00fd se vymyk\u00e1 kontrole (a\u00a0<\/span>Washington se pou\u0161t\u00ed do v\u00e1lky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0), se vzn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed nad glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi trhy a americkou dom\u00e1c\u00ed politikou. To m\u00e1 hlubok\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro ceny ropy, americk\u00fd dolar, Trumpovu celn\u00ed politiku, americkou ekonomiku a jeho politick\u00e9 postaven\u00ed. S t\u00edm, jak nap\u011bt\u00ed tloustne, souhra t\u011bchto faktor\u016f vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed pon\u011bkud nest\u00e1lou sm\u011bsici, kter\u00e1 by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b mohla rozvr\u00e1tit sou\u010dasn\u00fd prezidentsk\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prudk\u00e1 eskalace, zejm\u00e9na v souvislosti s\u00a0<\/span>Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, riskuje uvrhnut\u00ed USA do recese a podkop\u00e1n\u00ed Trumpov\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch slib\u016f a ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 podpory. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se tedy, \u017ee prezidentova zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed budou st\u00e1le v\u00edce formov\u00e1na dom\u00e1c\u00edmi tlaky, co\u017e je dynamika, kter\u00e1 je nedostate\u010dn\u011b informov\u00e1na a z\u00e1rove\u0148 kritick\u00e1. Pod\u00edvejme se tedy na n\u011bkter\u00e1 fakta:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n produkuje\u00a0<\/span>3,3\u20134 miliony barel\u016f ropy denn\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(bpd), co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje\u00a0<\/span>3\u20134 %<\/span><\/a>\u00a0celosv\u011btov\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky, a vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed 1,6\u20132 miliony bpd, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e export \u010din\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>1,6\u20132 miliony bpd<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, a to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>do \u010c\u00edny<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Skute\u010dnou hrozbou v\u0161ak je Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, kter\u00fdm proud\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>20 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a v\u00fdznamn\u00fd pod\u00edl zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu. Naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek v t\u00e9to oblasti by mohlo vyst\u0159elit cenu ropy Brent na\u00a0<\/span>80\u2013100 dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0za barel, co\u017e by zv\u00fd\u0161ilo ceny americk\u00e9ho plynu o\u00a0<\/span>15\u201350 cent\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0za galon. V\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 krize, jako by se \u00cdr\u00e1n pokusil zablokovat pr\u016fliv s podporou\u00a0<\/span>H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, by mohla cenu ropy vy\u0161plhat na\u00a0<\/span>120\u2013150 dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, zat\u00edmco benz\u00edn by se pohyboval kolem\u00a0<\/span>4\u20135 dolar\u016f za galon<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, zejm\u00e9na pot\u00e9, co \u00cdr\u00e1n\u00a0<\/span>ozn\u00e1mil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee tak u\u010din\u00ed po americk\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch na jeho jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Claudia Galimbertiho ze spole\u010dnosti Rystad Energy byly trhy utlumen\u00e9 a vsadily na volnou kapacitu OPEC+ ve v\u00fd\u0161i 5 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b a na americkou b\u0159idlicovou ropu, aby vykompenzovaly ztr\u00e1ty.\u00a0Dlouhodob\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu by v\u0161ak tyto rezervy p\u0159et\u00ed\u017eilo, co\u017e by p\u0159ipom\u00ednalo ropn\u00e9 embargo z roku 1973. Navzdory produkci ropy v USA (12,9 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b) glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ceny zvy\u0161uj\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed n\u00e1klady a ohro\u017euj\u00ed Trump\u016fv slib n\u00edzk\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f na energie.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dlouhodob\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu by v\u0161ak tyto rezervy zahltilo, zp\u016fsobem p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>ropn\u00e9 embargo z roku 1973.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Status USA jako \u010dist\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozce ropy (s produkc\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>12,9 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) sta\u010d\u00ed \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee nab\u00edz\u00ed omezenou ochranu, proto\u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ceny ropy do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry\u00a0<\/span>diktuj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0dom\u00e1c\u00ed n\u00e1klady. Jak\u00e9koli dal\u0161\u00ed zhor\u0161en\u00ed situace proto ohro\u017euje Trump\u016fv slib udr\u017eet n\u00edzk\u00e9 ceny energi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny ropy \u010dasto posiluj\u00ed dolar jako bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 aktivum, jak\u00a0<\/span>uv\u00e1d\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka , ale Trumpova 10\u201320% cla na \u010c\u00ednu, Kanadu a kanadsk\u00e1 cla na dovoz to komplikuj\u00ed. Siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dolar podle\u00a0<\/span>anal\u00fdzy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0CFR po\u0161kozuje export , zat\u00edmco cla zvy\u0161uj\u00ed dovozn\u00ed ceny a podporuj\u00ed inflaci. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b prudk\u00e9 eskalace by dolar mohl kr\u00e1tce vzr\u016fst, ale podle ekonom\u016f, jako je Nouriel Roubini, oslabit v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b\u00a0<\/span>recese<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Tato volatilita zpochyb\u0148uje Trumpovu obchodn\u00ed agendu, proto\u017ee cla a inflace by mohly stla\u010dit spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje (\u00a0<\/span>70 % americk\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity<\/span><\/a>\u00a0), co\u017e by p\u0159im\u011blo\u00a0<\/span>Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m<\/span><\/a>\u00a0k odlo\u017een\u00ed sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb nebo\u00a0<\/span>k jejich zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span>co\u017e by zpomalilo hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova cla maj\u00ed chr\u00e1nit americk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, ale zvy\u0161uj\u00ed n\u00e1klady pro spot\u0159ebitele a podniky, co\u017e riskuje\u00a0<\/span>inflaci<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Jeho politika \u201e\u00a0<\/span>vrtat, baby, vrtat<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c se sna\u017e\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161it produkci ropy (co\u017e d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl), ale cla na ocel\u00a0<\/span>zvy\u0161uj\u00ed n\u00e1klady na t\u011b\u017ebu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, co\u017e tento c\u00edl podkop\u00e1v\u00e1. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny ropy v d\u016fsledku eskalace konfliktu by mohly zes\u00edlit ekonomick\u00e9 probl\u00e9my zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 cly a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b by mohly Trumpa donutit k pozastaven\u00ed cel, jak tomu bylo v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Kanady a Mexika v dubnu 2025.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova cla maj\u00ed chr\u00e1nit americk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, ale jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno zvy\u0161uj\u00ed n\u00e1klady pro spot\u0159ebitele a podniky, \u010d\u00edm\u017e\u00a0<\/span>riskuj\u00ed inflaci a sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Jeho politika \u201e\u00a0<\/span>vrtat, baby, vrtat<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c se sna\u017e\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161it dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkci ropy (co\u017e d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl), ale cla na ocel a dal\u0161\u00ed materi\u00e1ly\u00a0<\/span>zv\u00fd\u0161ila n\u00e1klady na vrt\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, co\u017e tento c\u00edl podkop\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Politick\u00e1 cena je tedy jasn\u00e1, ale zahrnuje r\u016fzn\u00e9 druhy tlaku. \u010clov\u011bk si mo\u017en\u00e1 vzpomene, \u017ee Trumpova provokativn\u00ed r\u00e9torika, v\u010detn\u011b nast\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed americk\u00e9ho \u201ep\u0159evzet\u00ed\u201c Gazy, byla\u00a0<\/span>pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u0161ikanuj\u00edc\u00ed taktikou,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem bylo donutit Tel Aviv, aby se vyhnul \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lce s Teher\u00e1nem, kter\u00e1 by mohla naru\u0161it trhy s ropou \u2013 i kdy\u017e jsem ned\u00e1vno argumentoval, \u017ee americk\u00fd prezident by mohl o proveden\u00ed takov\u00e9 hrozby\u00a0<\/span>v\u00e1\u017en\u011b uva\u017eovat<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, i kdyby to byl pl\u00e1n B. S Trumpem op\u011bt nic nen\u00ed nikdy jednoduch\u00e9. A\u0165 je to jakkoli, jeho cla vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed rozpor, jak ji\u017e bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno: jejich c\u00edlem je pos\u00edlit americk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, ale zv\u00fd\u0161it n\u00e1klady pro producenty a spot\u0159ebitele ropy. To je politicky toxick\u00fd recept, pokud je sp\u00e1rov\u00e1n s prudk\u00fdm n\u00e1r\u016fstem cen ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump se ve sv\u00e9 kampani zam\u011b\u0159il na hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst a n\u00edzk\u00e9 ceny energi\u00ed, tak\u017ee rostouc\u00ed ceny plynu a inflace by mohly zjevn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>naru\u0161it podporu ve\u0159ejnosti<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, zejm\u00e9na pokud voli\u010di spoj\u00ed jeho cla nebo zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku s ekonomick\u00fdmi probl\u00e9my, jak je vid\u011bt na\u00a0<\/span>poklesu Bidenovy podpory<\/span><\/a>\u00a0b\u011bhem n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen plynu v roce 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

Voli\u010di ale op\u011bt nejsou jedin\u00fdm zdrojem tlaku: obrann\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a mocn\u00e9 proizraelsk\u00e9 lobby by mohly Trumpa sv\u00e1d\u011bt k tomu, aby si vybral v\u00e1lku, kter\u00e1 by uklidnila tyto p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy, zejm\u00e9na pot\u00e9, co je americk\u00fd prezident dostate\u010dn\u011b rozzlobil sta\u017een\u00edm z Ukrajiny, jak jsem ned\u00e1vno\u00a0<\/span>argumentoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed americk\u00e9 \u00fadery (i kdy\u017e pon\u011bkud \u201esymbolick\u00e9\u201c, proto\u017ee Teher\u00e1n z\u0159ejm\u011b\u00a0p\u0159ed bombardov\u00e1n\u00edm\u00a0<\/a><\/span>odstranil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v\u0161echny z\u00e1soby obohacen\u00e9ho uranu\u00a0) by pak mohly b\u00fdt jen za\u010d\u00e1tkem, proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n jist\u011b odvet\u00ed, a to zase rozn\u00edt\u00ed americk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 jest\u0159\u00e1by.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00fdkoli takov\u00fd krok bl\u00ed\u017ee k plnohodnotn\u00e9 v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem v\u0161ak riskuje, \u017ee Trumpovo prezidentstv\u00ed uvrhne do ba\u017einy, vy\u010derp\u00e1 zdroje a vyvol\u00e1 dom\u00e1c\u00ed nepokoje, kter\u00e9 jsou ji\u017e tak\u00a0<\/span>vysok\u00e9<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a jsou \u017eiveny etnopolitick\u00fdm nap\u011bt\u00edm a obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm z autorit\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed. A\u0165 je to jakkoli, Trumpovo\u00a0dosavadn\u00ed p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>t\u0159\u00ed pokus\u016f o atent\u00e1t by m\u011blo\u00a0<\/span><\/a>podtrhnout<\/span><\/a>\u00a0dom\u00e1c\u00ed rizika znep\u0159\u00e1telen\u00ed si mocn\u00fdch frakc\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b \u010d\u00e1sti takzvan\u00e9ho \u201e\u00a0<\/span>hlubok\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, \u00edr\u00e1nsko-izraelsk\u00fd konflikt riskuje chaos na trhu s ropou, volatilitu dolaru a ekonomick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 cly. Trump by musel vyv\u00e1\u017eit svou agresivn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed a zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku s o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edmi voli\u010d\u016f ohledn\u011b stability. Z americk\u00e9ho pohledu by jeho \u201emaxim\u00e1ln\u00ed tlak\u201c na \u00cdr\u00e1n mohl odradit eskalaci, ale v\u017edycky s sebou nese riziko chybn\u00e9ho odhadu (i kdy\u017e Trump omez\u00ed \u00fa\u010dast Washingtonu ve v\u00e1lce na\u00a0<\/span>bomby, nikoli na boty<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 na m\u00edst\u011b).<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>\u00fatoky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v sobotu rozhodn\u011b zp\u016fsobily velk\u00fd chaos. Pokud Trump padne do \u201enekonick\u00e9 pasti\u201c dal\u0161\u00ed bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky, \u201eMAGA\u201c je pry\u010d a rozbije u\u017e tak pot\u00e1cej\u00edc\u00ed se Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, mo\u017en\u00e1 i nenapraviteln\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eskalace nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem s t\u00edm, \u017ee Washington se pust\u00ed do v\u00e1lky, u…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":82070,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1472,452,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82069"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82069\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}