{"id":82047,"date":"2025-06-24T00:28:17","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T22:28:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=82047"},"modified":"2025-06-23T17:46:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T15:46:09","slug":"hua-bin-jakou-roli-by-mela-cina-hrat-ve-valce-mezi-iranem-a-izraelem-realisticky-pohled","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/24\/hua-bin-jakou-roli-by-mela-cina-hrat-ve-valce-mezi-iranem-a-izraelem-realisticky-pohled\/","title":{"rendered":"Hua Bin: Jakou roli by m\u011bla \u010c\u00edna hr\u00e1t ve v\u00e1lce mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem \u2013 realistick\u00fd pohled"},"content":{"rendered":"
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D\u016fv\u011bra a podpora si mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zaslou\u017een\u00e9, ne d\u00e1van\u00e9. \u00cdr\u00e1n mus\u00ed ud\u011blat v\u00edce, pokud chce podporu \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/em><\/h3>\n

Mnoho \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch strat\u00e9g\u016f, mnohem chyt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed a l\u00e9pe informovan\u00ed ne\u017e j\u00e1, se v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b touto ot\u00e1zkou zab\u00fdv\u00e1. V\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee najdou spr\u00e1vn\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 krizi ochr\u00e1nit n\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00fdm skromn\u00fdm c\u00edlem v t\u00e9to eseji je nab\u00eddnout faktickou a detailn\u00ed anal\u00fdzu situace z osobn\u00edho pohledu. Zam\u011b\u0159\u00edm se na vyvr\u00e1cen\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch m\u00fdt\u016f o dopadu v\u00e1lky na \u010c\u00ednu a \u010d\u00ednsko-\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vztahy. Jakmile budou tyto m\u00fdty vyvr\u00e1ceny, \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i budou schopni l\u00e9pe p\u0159edv\u00eddat a interpretovat kroky \u010c\u00edny v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech a m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00fdtus \u010d. 1: \u010c\u00edna nepomohla.<\/span><\/strong>
\nRealita:<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u010c\u00edna odsoudila izraelskou agresi a vyzvala k okam\u017eit\u00e9mu ukon\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed na r\u016fzn\u00fdch f\u00f3rech: v Rad\u011b bezpe\u010dnosti OSN, v BRICS, v \u0160anghajsk\u00e9 organizaci pro spolupr\u00e1ci (SCO) a na summitu \u010c\u00edna-St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie. Ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Wang I telefonoval sv\u00fdm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm i izraelsk\u00fdm prot\u011bj\u0161k\u016fm a vyzval k deeskalaci. Prezident Si \u0164in-pching dnes hovo\u0159il s prezidentem Putinem; oba odsoudili Izrael a vyzvali k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n zat\u00edm ve\u0159ejn\u011b nepo\u017e\u00e1dal o pomoc \u010c\u00ednu ani Rusko. Domn\u00edv\u00e1m se v\u0161ak, \u017ee prezident Si \u0164in-pching i prezident Putin by byli ochotni zprost\u0159edkovat, pokud by o to \u00cdr\u00e1n po\u017e\u00e1dal.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00fdtus \u010d. 2: Pokud bude \u00cdr\u00e1n pora\u017een, multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d sel\u017ee.<\/span><\/strong>
\nRealita:<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Izrael pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1n s\u00e1m neporaz\u00ed. M\u016f\u017ee zp\u016fsobit \u0161kody (a \u00cdr\u00e1n by se odplatil), ale zcela nezni\u010d\u00ed jeho jadern\u00fd program ani vojenskou infrastrukturu \u2013 a u\u017e v\u016fbec nedos\u00e1hne zm\u011bny re\u017eimu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 intervence by mohla zp\u016fsobit i v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161kody, ale jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed lze obnovit \u2013 a existuje dokonce riziko, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n pak poprv\u00e9 \u00famysln\u011b vyrob\u00ed bombu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zm\u011bna re\u017eimu bez okupace zem\u011b s 90 miliony obyvatel je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1. Leteck\u00e1 v\u00e1lka s drony a raketami syst\u00e9m nezni\u010d\u00ed. Pr\u00e1v\u011b naopak: V\u00e1lka by mohla p\u0159in\u00e9st n\u00e1rodn\u00ed jednotu rozd\u011blen\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti \u2013 jako v \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lce v 80. letech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud \u00cdr\u00e1nci sami svrhnou re\u017eim a obr\u00e1t\u00ed se na stranu agresor\u016f, \u010c\u00edna nebo Rusko budou bezmocn\u00e9. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd st\u00e1t nem\u016f\u017ee zachr\u00e1nit rozbitou spole\u010dnost, kter\u00e1 se dobrovoln\u011b pod\u0159\u00edd\u00ed sv\u00e9mu ni\u010diteli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Selsk\u00fd rozum n\u00e1m \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee nelze bombardov\u00e1n\u00edm vynutit p\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed mezi n\u00e1rody (i kdy\u017e existuj\u00ed v\u00fdjimky jako N\u011bmecko, Japonsko a Vietnam \u2013 zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee zapomn\u011bly na zni\u010den\u00ed z\u00e1paln\u00fdmi a atomov\u00fdmi bombami a nyn\u00ed se chovaj\u00ed jako poslu\u0161n\u00ed vazalov\u00e9).<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nci projev\u00ed p\u00e1te\u0159 a stanou se jednotnou spole\u010dnost\u00ed proti spole\u010dn\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm, stejn\u011b jako to ud\u011blali v 80. letech.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00fdtus \u010d. 3: Pokud \u010c\u00edna a Rusko \u00cdr\u00e1nu okam\u017eit\u011b nepomohou, ztrat\u00ed mor\u00e1ln\u00ed autoritu na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm Jihu.<\/span><\/strong>
\nRealita:<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Opak je pravdou. Jsou to Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, kdo mrh\u00e1 svou posledn\u00ed zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed mor\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost\u00ed veden\u00edm agresivn\u00ed v\u00e1lky s Izraelem, kter\u00e1 jasn\u011b poru\u0161uje mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo \u2013 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 kryje genocidu v Gaze.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud sv\u011bt skute\u010dn\u011b podporuje politiky, jako je nov\u00fd kancl\u00e9\u0159 Merz \u2013 kter\u00fd chv\u00e1l\u00ed Izrael a dod\u00e1v\u00e1 zbran\u011b, zat\u00edmco dovoluje ob\u011btov\u00e1n\u00ed Palestinc\u016f \u2013 pak to nen\u00ed sv\u011bt, kter\u00fd by \u010c\u00edna nebo Rusko cht\u011bly zachr\u00e1nit.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 u\u017e v \u00cdr\u00e1nu dojde k v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, nebo por\u00e1\u017ece, Z\u00e1pad se st\u00e1le v\u00edce izoluje \u2013 ne \u010c\u00edna. Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo si to neuv\u011bdomuje, ztratil kontakt s realitou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud USA skute\u010dn\u011b vstoup\u00ed do v\u00e1lky, ocitnou se znovu v medv\u011bd\u00ed pasti. Kolik miliard dolar\u016f a mrtv\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f bylo pot\u0159eba ke svr\u017een\u00ed T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu nebo Sadd\u00e1ma Husajna? Kolik by st\u00e1la v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu?<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011b\u0159\u00ed n\u011bkdo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b, \u017ee se v \u00cdr\u00e1nu po tomhle objev\u00ed proamerick\u00fd re\u017eim? Fungovalo to v Ir\u00e1ku, Libyi nebo Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu? Ne \u2013 a ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo tomu st\u00e1le v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, mus\u00ed b\u00fdt velmi naivn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00fdtus \u010d. 4: \u00cdr\u00e1n je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm spojencem \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/strong>
\nRealita:<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Ne, nen\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 jasn\u00e9 priority: Tchaj-wan, Jiho\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e a hranici s Indi\u00ed. Jej\u00ed nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed partne\u0159i: Rusko a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n je ekonomick\u00fdm partnerem \u2013 \u010c\u00edna nakupuje ropu a prod\u00e1v\u00e1 spot\u0159ebn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna se pod\u00edl\u00ed na 90 % \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu ropy, ale dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed pouze 12\u201314 % ropy z \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Hlavn\u00edmi dodavateli \u010c\u00edny jsou Rusko, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a Ir\u00e1k.<\/span><\/p>\n

S n\u00e1stupem elektrick\u00e9 mobility kles\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost \u010c\u00edny na rop\u011b. \u00cdr\u00e1n je ekonomicky druho\u0159ad\u00fd \u2013 zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee Indii, kter\u00e1 je deklarovan\u00fdm protivn\u00edkem \u010c\u00edny, zadal d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 projekty, jako je p\u0159\u00edstav \u010cabah\u00e1r. A zat\u00edmco \u010c\u00edna v roce 2023 zprost\u0159edkovala jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed, \u00cdr\u00e1n reagoval strategickou dohodou s Nov\u00fdm Dill\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n poskytl bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fato\u010di\u0161t\u011b na hranici s P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem proti\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 teroristick\u00e9 skupin\u011b BLA \u2013 t\u00e9\u017ee skupin\u011b, kter\u00e1 vra\u017edila \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 d\u011bln\u00edky a sabotovala vlajkov\u00fd projekt BRI v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna to nikdy ve\u0159ejn\u011b nekritizovala, ale jedna v\u011bc je jasn\u00e1: vztahy jsou napjat\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00fdtus \u010d. 5: \u010c\u00edna by m\u011bla bojovat s USA hned te\u010f \u2013 v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, a ne ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii.<\/span><\/strong>
\nRealita:<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0To je nesmysl. Tato logika poch\u00e1z\u00ed od George W. Bushe: \u201eBojujte s nep\u0159\u00edtelem tam, ne\u017e p\u0159ijde sem.\u201c \u010c\u00edna by nikdy nebojovala s americk\u00fdmi z\u00e1kladnami vzd\u00e1len\u00fdmi 7 000 kilometr\u016f \u2013 bez vlastn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti v tomto st\u00e1t\u011b. Byla by to strategick\u00e1 sebevra\u017eda.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna si sama ur\u010d\u00ed na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu \u2013 jako ve h\u0159e\u00a0<\/span>Go<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, ne v \u0161ach\u00e1ch. Souboj s USA p\u0159ijde, ale ne ukvapen\u011b. Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod je strategicky irelevantn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00fdtus \u010d. 6: \u010c\u00edna chce nahradit USA v roli sv\u011btov\u00e9ho policisty a k tomu pot\u0159ebuje \u00cdr\u00e1n .<\/span><\/strong>
\nRealita:<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u010c\u00edna nem\u00e1 z\u00e1jem st\u00e1t se nov\u00fdm \u201e\u0161erifem\u201c sv\u011bta. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika je zalo\u017eena na pragmatismu, nikoli na ideologii nebo mision\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m z\u00e1palu. Aliance jako NATO jsou pro \u010c\u00ednu odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed \u2013 kv\u016fli nerovnom\u011brn\u00e9mu zat\u011b\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed, spor\u016fm mezi partnery a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdm mlad\u0161\u00edm \u010dlen\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna se nezav\u00e1\u017ee k nejist\u00e9mu, ekonomicky slab\u00e9mu partnerovi, jako je \u00cdr\u00e1n, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pokud je strategicky nespolehliv\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 politika je multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed, ale ne slep\u011b loaj\u00e1ln\u00ed. Peking chce tak\u00e9 dobr\u00e9 vztahy s Tureckem, Egyptem a st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, kter\u00e9 se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 \u00fazk\u00fdch vazeb s \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br:<\/span><\/strong>
\n\u010c\u00edna nebude slep\u011b podporovat \u00cdr\u00e1n. D\u016fv\u011bra, strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam a spolehlivost si mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zaslou\u017een\u00e9. Ti, kdo cht\u011bj\u00ed pomoc, si ji mus\u00ed zaslou\u017eit. A tohle nen\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

D\u016fv\u011bra a podpora si mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zaslou\u017een\u00e9, ne d\u00e1van\u00e9. \u00cdr\u00e1n mus\u00ed ud\u011blat v\u00edce, pokud chce…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":350,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,38,1242,814],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82047"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82047\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/350"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}