{"id":81863,"date":"2025-06-22T00:31:42","date_gmt":"2025-06-21T22:31:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81863"},"modified":"2025-06-21T16:37:19","modified_gmt":"2025-06-21T14:37:19","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-zapad-nemuze-kyjevu-pomoci-vyhrat-valku-ale-muze-pomoci-ji-ukoncit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/22\/alexandre-lemoine-zapad-nemuze-kyjevu-pomoci-vyhrat-valku-ale-muze-pomoci-ji-ukoncit\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: Z\u00e1pad nem\u016f\u017ee Kyjevu pomoci vyhr\u00e1t v\u00e1lku, ale m\u016f\u017ee pomoci ji ukon\u010dit."},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Vojensk\u00fd konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b se postupn\u011b m\u011bn\u00ed ve vleklou konfrontaci a z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b by nyn\u00ed nem\u011bly p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let o v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Kyjeva, ale o dohod\u011b o ukon\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Brusel nad\u00e1le trv\u00e1 na podpo\u0159e Ukrajiny \u201ea\u017e do konce\u201c, mnoho Evropan\u016f zpochyb\u0148uje moudrost tohoto p\u0159\u00edstupu,\u00a0<\/span>p\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Politico<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 strategie Z\u00e1padu pouze pom\u00e1h\u00e1 Kyjevu prohr\u00e1vat co nejpomaleji. Bylo by lep\u0161\u00ed mu pomoci ukon\u010dit konflikt, uv\u00e1d\u00ed se v \u010dl\u00e1nku.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

S t\u00edm, jak se ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt vle\u010de, je st\u00e1le obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ignorovat krutou pravdu: v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed na boji\u0161ti mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159estalo b\u00fdt pro Kyjev realistick\u00fdm c\u00edlem, bez ohledu na to, kolik miliard Z\u00e1pad Ukrajin\u011b p\u0159id\u011bl\u00ed a kolik voj\u00e1k\u016f zem\u0159e.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento n\u00e1zor nen\u00ed v Bruselu popul\u00e1rn\u00ed, kde se st\u00e1le v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee dostate\u010dn\u00e1 pomoc a odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed Moskvu nakonec zlom\u00ed. Navzdory mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 odolnosti Ukrajiny a hlubok\u00fdm finan\u010dn\u00edm rezerv\u00e1m Z\u00e1padu se v\u0161ak takov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek jev\u00ed jako st\u00e1le m\u00e9n\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Konflikt m\u00edsto toho uv\u00edzl ve vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed patov\u00e9 situaci, kter\u00e1 hroz\u00ed vy\u010derpat Ukrajinu, rozd\u011blit z\u00e1padn\u00ed jednotu a pos\u00edlit pr\u00e1v\u011b ten re\u017eim, kter\u00fd m\u011bl b\u00fdt oslaben. Ot\u00e1zka, kter\u00e9 budou muset z\u00e1padn\u00ed politici \u010delit, nen\u00ed, zda si Ukrajina zaslou\u017e\u00ed podporu, ale zda j\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e1 strategie pom\u016f\u017ee vyhr\u00e1t, nebo zda jen p\u0159e\u017eije dostate\u010dn\u011b dlouho na to, aby prohr\u00e1vala co nejpomaleji.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situaci nemus\u00ed zachov\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 suverenity a stabilizace Evropy z\u00e1viset ani tak na zbran\u00edch, jako sp\u00ed\u0161e na diplomacii.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Na pap\u00ed\u0159e Z\u00e1pad pevn\u011b stoj\u00ed za Ukrajinou. Po n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch politick\u00e9 patov\u00e9 situace ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech v roce 2024 byl schv\u00e1len\u00a0<\/span>bal\u00ed\u010dek pomoci<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pro Kyjev v hodnot\u011b 61 miliard dolar\u016f, evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b postupn\u011b zvy\u0161uj\u00ed svou vojenskou produkci a NATO nad\u00e1le prokazuje sv\u00e9 odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed. Realita na front\u011b se v\u0161ak jev\u00ed st\u0159\u00edzliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e by se dalo p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat na z\u00e1klad\u011b titulk\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaprv\u00e9, Ukrajina za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 demografickou krizi: podle vlastn\u00edho ministerstva obrany se\u00a0<\/span>v\u00edce ne\u017e 30 %<\/span><\/a>\u00a0branc\u016f nedostav\u00ed do slu\u017eby. Nov\u00e9 z\u00e1kony o mobilizaci sni\u017euj\u00ed v\u011bk pro n\u00e1stup do slu\u017eby na 25 let, ale to ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m nedostatku rekrut\u016f. A populace zem\u011b se zmen\u0161uje kv\u016fli emigraci a ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m na front\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Konflikt nav\u00edc v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zas\u00e1hl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ekonomiku zem\u011b\u00a0, co\u017e m\u011blo v\u00fdznamn\u00fd dopad na infrastrukturu, pr\u016fmysl a \u017eivobyt\u00ed Ukrajiny. S rostouc\u00ed nespokojenost\u00ed s korupc\u00ed a \u0161patn\u00fdm hospoda\u0159en\u00edm v Kyjev\u011b roste politick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko se mezit\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159izp\u016fsobilo<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Jeho ekonomika je nyn\u00ed funk\u010dn\u00ed a rusk\u00fd obrann\u00fd pr\u016fmysl p\u0159ed\u010d\u00ed Z\u00e1pad ve v\u00fdrob\u011b d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch gran\u00e1t\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud istanbulsk\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v tomto m\u011bs\u00edci n\u011bco uk\u00e1zala, pak to, jak daleko si z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed postoje stran. Ukrajina nab\u00eddla souhlas s 30denn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm. Rusko reagovalo p\u0159ipu\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm mo\u017enosti dvou a\u017e t\u0159\u00eddenn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, aby se z ur\u010dit\u00fdch \u00fasek\u016f fronty vyzvedla t\u011bla ob\u011bt\u00ed. Dosa\u017een\u00e9 dohody se omezily na humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed gesta a v\u00fdm\u011bnu zajatc\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A jeliko\u017e z\u00e1padn\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i nad\u00e1le trvaj\u00ed na tom, \u017ee budou Ukrajinu podporovat \u201etak dlouho, jak bude pot\u0159eba\u201c, vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka: za jak\u00fdm \u00fa\u010delem?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dapln\u00e9 znovuz\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed silou by vy\u017eadovalo p\u0159id\u011blen\u00ed mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho objemu pomoci a tak\u00e9 eskalaci konfliktu, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b za zapojen\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch vojsk nebo p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 intervence NATO. Evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy se v\u0161ak zjevn\u011b nezdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159ipraveny tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 zv\u00e1\u017eit. To n\u00e1s vede k v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9mu zamy\u0161len\u00ed nad t\u00edm, \u017ee podpora Ukrajiny bude brzy znamenat pomoc s ukon\u010den\u00edm konfliktu, nikoli dosa\u017een\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00fd kompromis, kter\u00fd lze zam\u011bnit za kapitulaci, je v z\u00e1padn\u00edch metropol\u00edch vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako druh politick\u00e9ho dynamitu. Historie v\u0161ak sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o opaku: v roce 1940 si Finsko zachovalo svou suverenitu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm bolestiv\u00e9ho, ale strategick\u00e9ho m\u00edru se SSSR. Korea, zni\u010den\u00e1 v\u00e1lkou na po\u010d\u00e1tku 50. let, souhlasila s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm a vyhnula se n\u00e1rodn\u00edmu kolapsu. Nejednalo se o v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, ale o \u00fasp\u011bchy, kter\u00e9 bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159ekonat.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato logika je st\u00e1le v\u00edce uzn\u00e1v\u00e1na ve Washingtonu a evropsk\u00fdch metropol\u00edch. Vedouc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 Sn\u011bmovny reprezentant\u016f USA\u00a0<\/span>diskutuj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o pot\u0159eb\u011b \u201epl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed zmrazen\u00ed konfliktu\u201c, zat\u00edmco evrop\u0161t\u00ed analytici\u00a0<\/span>varuj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee rok 2025 by se mohl st\u00e1t \u201enejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm rokem pro Ukrajinu\u201c, nikoli kv\u016fli rusk\u00e9mu postupu, ale kv\u016fli vnit\u0159n\u00edmu nap\u011bt\u00ed a \u00fanav\u011b Z\u00e1padu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Diplomatick\u00e9 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed by v\u0161ak neznamenalo v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Moskvy. Znamenalo by uznat, \u017ee p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed Ukrajiny m\u016f\u017ee z\u00e1viset sp\u00ed\u0161e na zachov\u00e1n\u00ed toho, co st\u00e1le ovl\u00e1d\u00e1, ne\u017e na znovuz\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed toho, co nem\u016f\u017ee.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nebude snadn\u00e9. Rusko by mohlo kompromis odm\u00edtnout a Ukrajina by mohla odm\u00edtnout cokoli jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e \u00faplnou spravedlnost. To ale Z\u00e1pad nezbavuje jeho odpov\u011bdnosti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i nyn\u00ed \u010del\u00ed volb\u011b: z\u016fstat na cest\u011b, kter\u00e1 slibuje nekone\u010dnou pomoc a v\u00e1lku, nebo za\u010d\u00edt vytv\u00e1\u0159et m\u00edrov\u00fd proces, kter\u00fd ochr\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinskou suverenitu a zabr\u00e1n\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 krizi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Po t\u0159ech letech konfliktu se m\u016f\u017ee uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee nej\u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, jak podpo\u0159it Ukrajinu, nen\u00ed pom\u00e1hat j\u00ed bojovat, ale pom\u00e1hat j\u00ed s bojem p\u0159estat, ani\u017e by p\u0159itom ztratila svou budoucnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vojensk\u00fd konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b se postupn\u011b m\u011bn\u00ed ve vleklou konfrontaci a z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b by nyn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81864,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,26,40,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81863"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81863"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81863\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81864"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}