{"id":81845,"date":"2025-06-22T00:24:22","date_gmt":"2025-06-21T22:24:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81845"},"modified":"2025-06-21T13:27:24","modified_gmt":"2025-06-21T11:27:24","slug":"analyza-zmena-rezimu-proc-iranci-varuji-ze-izraelska-fantazie-by-se-mohla-promenit-v-nocni-muru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/22\/analyza-zmena-rezimu-proc-iranci-varuji-ze-izraelska-fantazie-by-se-mohla-promenit-v-nocni-muru\/","title":{"rendered":"Anal\u00fdza \u2013 Zm\u011bna re\u017eimu: Pro\u010d \u00cdr\u00e1nci varuj\u00ed, \u017ee izraelsk\u00e1 fantazie by se mohla prom\u011bnit v no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fru"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V\u011bt\u0161ina analytik\u016f se shoduje, \u017ee rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na \u00cdr\u00e1n v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku prosp\u00edvaj\u00ed pouze veden\u00ed Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky \u2013 i kdy\u017e se Benjamin Netanjahu a mnoho Izraelc\u016f n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem pova\u017euj\u00ed za zachr\u00e1nce \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho lidu. \u201eZa\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 to vypadat jako Gaza,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 jeden expert.<\/p>\n

Benjamin Netanjahu m\u00e1 s \u00cdr\u00e1nem mnoho pl\u00e1n\u016f. Mezi jeho deklarovan\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 c\u00edle pat\u0159\u00ed eliminace hrozby, kterou p\u0159edstavuje \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program a raketov\u00fd arzen\u00e1l. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u010dasto vyjad\u0159uje nad\u011bji, \u017ee se \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd lid vzchop\u00ed a osvobod\u00ed se od toho, co naz\u00fdv\u00e1 \u201ezl\u00fdm re\u017eimem\u201c Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky.<\/p>\n

Pozorovatel\u00e9 d\u00e1le spekuluj\u00ed, \u017ee Netanjahu zah\u00e1jil v\u00e1lku, aby podkopal americkou diplomacii s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, nebo \u017ee Washington schv\u00e1lil \u00fader, aby pos\u00edlil svou vlastn\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed pozici. Izraelsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r tak\u00e9 nazna\u010duje zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu \u2013 implikuje n\u00e1siln\u00e9 svr\u017een\u00ed ciz\u00ed mocnost\u00ed, mo\u017en\u00e1 i atent\u00e1t na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce ajatoll\u00e1ha Al\u00edho Chamene\u00edho. Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump \u00fadajn\u011b Netanjahua od tohoto pl\u00e1nu zat\u00edm odradil (zpo\u010d\u00e1tku tak\u00e9 odm\u00edtl izraelsk\u00fd prvn\u00ed \u00fader, ne\u017e si to rozmyslel). Trump m\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1pad: Izrael a \u00cdr\u00e1n by m\u011bly uzav\u0159\u00edt m\u00edr. Pro\u010d ne? V Trumpov\u011b mysli je mo\u017en\u00e9 cokoli \u2013 i kdyby nep\u0159inesl m\u00edr ani Gaze, ani Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

Jak \u00cdr\u00e1n reaguje na tyto pl\u00e1ny sv\u00e9 budoucnosti? Kter\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e se z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho pohledu zdaj\u00ed realistick\u00e9 a kter\u00e9 jsou \u010dirou fantazi\u00ed nebo no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016frou? Pravda je takov\u00e1, \u017ee u ka\u017ed\u00e9ho t\u00e9matu \u2013 deeskalace, budoucnost jadern\u00e9ho programu, mo\u017en\u00e9 op\u011btovn\u00e9 projedn\u00e1n\u00ed dohody a vyhl\u00eddky na zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu \u2013 \u010dasto plat\u00ed jedno i druh\u00e9. Ot\u00e1zky jsou propojen\u00e9. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed to naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed talmudsk\u00fdm nebo vyh\u00fdbav\u00fdm, ale nen\u00ed n\u00e1hoda, \u017ee vynikaj\u00edc\u00ed kniha o \u00cdr\u00e1nu nese n\u00e1zev \u201e\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd labyrint\u201c, zat\u00edmco nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed d\u00edlo renomovan\u00e9ho \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho experta Valiho Nasra nese n\u00e1zev \u201e\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 velk\u00e1 strategie\u201c.<\/p>\n

Deeskalace \u2013 cesta dl\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00e1 krv\u00ed?<\/strong>
\nKapituluje \u00cdr\u00e1n \u2013 Trump\u016fv po\u017eadavek na \u201e\u00faplnou pod\u0159\u00edzenost\u201c \u2013 nebo bude pokra\u010dovat v boji? Analytici se shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je vojensky m\u00e9n\u011bcenn\u00fd. \u201eIzrael m\u00e1 evidentn\u011b vojenskou p\u0159evahu a s podporou USA je rovnov\u00e1ha nemo\u017en\u00e1,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Negar Mortazavi, vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00edk Centra pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiku ve Washingtonu, D.C. a moder\u00e1tor vysoce doporu\u010dovan\u00e9ho podcastu \u201eThe Iran Podcast\u201c. Arash Azizi, autor n\u011bkolika knih o \u00cdr\u00e1nu (naposledy \u201eCo \u00cdr\u00e1nci cht\u011bj\u00ed: \u017deny, \u017eivot, svoboda\u201c; brzy bude p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161et na Yale), tak\u00e9 zd\u016fraz\u0148uje t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

Jeden sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159: Zni\u010den\u00ed donut\u00ed Teher\u00e1n k velk\u00fdm \u00fastupk\u016fm v rozhovorech s USA. \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e neofici\u00e1ln\u00edmi kan\u00e1ly \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159es Kypr nebo st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u2013 nazna\u010dil p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. \u201eVn\u00edmaj\u00ed to jako \u00fader a proti\u00fader. Jakmile Izrael p\u0159estane, zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee jsou p\u0159ipraveni na p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00e1 i na n\u00e1vrat k jednac\u00edmu stolu,\u201c \u0159ekl Mortazavi.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 dokonce Izrael a \u00cdr\u00e1n dos\u00e1hnou tich\u00e9 dohody. \u201eNejlep\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by byl n\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho tomu, co se stalo mezi Izraelem a Hizball\u00e1hem v roce 2006,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 vysoce postaven\u00fd \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd expert (anonym). Tehdy ob\u011b strany do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry dodr\u017eovaly tich\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a\u017e do 7. \u0159\u00edjna 2023.<\/p>\n

Lep\u0161\u00ed dohoda<\/strong>
\nDal\u0161\u00ed, nikoli \u0161patn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159: V\u00e1lka vede k vnit\u0159n\u00edmu mocensk\u00e9mu posunu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Azizi. \u201eNe\u0159\u00edk\u00e1m pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd, ale mo\u017en\u00fd: Frakce ochotn\u00e1 se vzd\u00e1t se ujme moci a prohl\u00e1s\u00ed: \u201aHra skon\u010dila, pot\u0159ebujeme dohodu s Trumpem.\u2018\u201c Ale jak se k tomu \u00cdr\u00e1n dostane? V\u00fd\u0161e \u200b\u200bzm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd akademick\u00fd expert se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee ob\u011b strany by musely b\u00fdt \u201ekrvav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u201c, ne\u017e by byly ochotny ke kompromisu \u2013 v souladu s Trumpovou pozn\u00e1mkou, \u017ee si nejprve mus\u00ed \u201evybojovat\u201c.<\/p>\n

Trump by mohl doufat, \u017ee vyu\u017eije vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed obou stran k prosazen\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed dohody pro sebe \u2013 \u201ede facto p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u201c, kter\u00e9 Netanjahu nebude podkop\u00e1vat. Pak by se Trump stal m\u00edrotvorcem hodn\u00fdm Nobelovy ceny.<\/p>\n

L\u00e1kadlo zm\u011bny re\u017eimu<\/strong>
\n. Ale i tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by mohl vy\u017eadovat zm\u011bnu moci. \u201eVnit\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159evrat,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Azizi: B\u00fdval\u00fd prezident Hasan R\u00fah\u00e1n\u00ed se uj\u00edm\u00e1 moci, Chamene\u00ed je um\u00edst\u011bn do dom\u00e1c\u00edho v\u011bzen\u00ed, panel v\u011bdc\u016f uzav\u0159e historickou jadernou dohodu s USA a vyhl\u00e1s\u00ed stolet\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed s Izraelem \u2013 jakousi hudnu.<\/p>\n

Term\u00edny jako \u201ezm\u011bna re\u017eimu\u201c nebo v\u00fdzvy k povst\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ak mohou spustit no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fry. Vnit\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159evrat by tak\u00e9 mohl pos\u00edlit radik\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky pova\u017euj\u00ed za definitivn\u00ed d\u016fkaz, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b pot\u0159ebuje. \u201eMohli by \u0159\u00edct: \u201aMus\u00edme okam\u017eit\u011b vyrobit bombu,\u2018\u201c varuje Azizi. Jak Izrael s\u00e1m v\u00ed, situace ob\u011bti \u010dasto vede k agresi.<\/p>\n

Netanjahu v\u0161ak nep\u0159em\u00fd\u0161l\u00ed o vnit\u0159n\u00edch frakc\u00edch. On a ameri\u010dt\u00ed neokonzervativci jako John Bolton si nemohou pomoct a pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed term\u00edn zm\u011bna re\u017eimu. Mortazavi se pt\u00e1: Chce Izrael \u201eizraelsk\u00e9 boty\u201c na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 p\u016fd\u011b? Jak hodl\u00e1 ovl\u00e1dat zemi s 90 miliony obyvatel?<\/p>\n

Doufat v lidovou vzpouru se zd\u00e1 nere\u00e1ln\u00e9. \u201e\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 opozice nen\u00ed organizovan\u00e1 \u2013 v\u016fbec ne… Pokud by jich k \u00fasp\u011bchu bylo pot\u0159eba 100, tak jich nem\u00e1 ani p\u011bt,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Azizi, s\u00e1m \u010dlen mal\u00e9 exilov\u00e9 strany star\u0161\u00edch opozi\u010dn\u00edch osobnost\u00ed. Pravideln\u011b byly potla\u010deny i velk\u00e9 protesty. Dokonce i hnut\u00ed \u201e\u017deny, \u017eivot, svoboda\u201c, o kter\u00e9m se Netanjahu ve sv\u00e9m poselstv\u00ed zm\u00ednil, z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti upadlo: Dnes podle akademika elegantn\u00ed kav\u00e1rny plat\u00ed mor\u00e1ln\u00ed policii za to, aby nechala z\u00e1kazn\u00edky bez hid\u017e\u00e1bu na pokoji. Ot\u00e1zka \u0161\u00e1tk\u016f se stala zdrojem p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f pro st\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Rostouc\u00ed hn\u011bv v\u016f\u010di Izraeli.<\/strong>
\nNa za\u010d\u00e1tku izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nci st\u00e1le chovali sympatie k Izraeli \u2013 z odporem k jejich re\u017eimu. Ale s \u00fatoky v Teher\u00e1nu a chaosem se n\u00e1lada m\u011bn\u00ed. \u201ePro mnoh\u00e9 to vypad\u00e1 jako Gaza,\u201c \u0159ekl expert. Rakety odp\u00e1len\u00e9 na televizn\u00ed stanici hn\u011bv zes\u00edlily. To re\u017eimu prosp\u00edv\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Nejhor\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em<\/strong>\u00a0by byl kolaps st\u00e1tu po Chamene\u00edho smrti: mocensk\u00e9 vakuum, milice, chaos \u2013 \u201ejako v Ir\u00e1ku\u201c nebo radikalizovan\u00e1 nov\u00e1 verze Ham\u00e1su, varuje expert.<\/p>\n

Moc lidu, omezen\u00e1.<\/strong>
\nPo tolika krveprolit\u00ed u\u017e nejsou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 pozitivn\u00ed str\u00e1nky, jen m\u00e9n\u011b n\u00e1sil\u00ed \u2013 nebo temn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e. Azizi alespo\u0148 vid\u00ed, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 obyvatelstvo nikdy nebylo z\u00e1sadn\u011b protiizraelsk\u00e9. Vzpom\u00edn\u00e1 na kampa\u0148 z roku 2012 \u201eJ\u00e1 \u2665 \u00cdr\u00e1n \/ J\u00e1 \u2665 Izrael\u201c. Existuje t\u00e1bor pro m\u00edr. Ale ka\u017ed\u00fd den v\u00e1lky zab\u00edj\u00ed v\u00edce lid\u00ed a prohlubuje propast. \u010c\u00edm d\u0159\u00edve to skon\u010d\u00ed, t\u00edm l\u00e9pe.<\/p>\n

Haaretz<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u011bt\u0161ina analytik\u016f se shoduje, \u017ee rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na \u00cdr\u00e1n v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku prosp\u00edvaj\u00ed pouze…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81846,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,107,1503,9347],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81845"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81845"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81845\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81846"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81845"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81845"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81845"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}