{"id":81821,"date":"2025-06-22T00:12:55","date_gmt":"2025-06-21T22:12:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81821"},"modified":"2025-06-21T16:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-21T14:00:00","slug":"antarkticky-paradox-torpeduje-katastroficky-pribeh-tajici-led-zpusobuje-ochlazovani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/22\/antarkticky-paradox-torpeduje-katastroficky-pribeh-tajici-led-zpusobuje-ochlazovani\/","title":{"rendered":"Antarktick\u00fd paradox torp\u00e9duje katastrofick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh: taj\u00edc\u00ed led zp\u016fsobuje ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Je to v\u016fbec mo\u017en\u00e9? Led na ji\u017en\u00edm p\u00f3lu taje \u2013 a Zem\u011b se ochlazuje? Nov\u00fd v\u00fdzkum z Antarktidy nastoluje z\u00e1sadn\u00ed ot\u00e1zky ohledn\u011b klimatick\u00fdch narativ\u016f na\u0161\u00ed doby. Je realita slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e b\u011b\u017en\u00fd klimaticky \u0161\u00edlen\u00fd narativ o nezastaviteln\u00e9 tepeln\u00e9 smrti?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Klimatick\u00e9 debat\u011b dominuj\u00ed z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti varovn\u00e9 hlasy klimatick\u00fdch apokalyptik\u016f. Jejich sloganem obvykle je: P\u00f3ly taj\u00ed, sv\u011bt se otepluje \u2013 cokoli jin\u00e9ho je pova\u017eov\u00e1no za pop\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed a kac\u00ed\u0159stv\u00ed. Nov\u00e1 studie projektu SOFIA (\u201eSouthern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica\u201c)\u00a0v \u010dasopise\u00a0Geophysical Research Letters<\/em><\/a> v\u0161ak vykresluje jin\u00fd obr\u00e1zek: T\u00e1n\u00ed antarktick\u00e9ho ledov\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edkrovu by mohlo zp\u016fsobit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed na cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed.<\/p>\n

D\u016fvodem je masivn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edliv sladk\u00e9 vody do Ji\u017en\u00edho oce\u00e1nu. To m\u011bn\u00ed hustotu a cirkulaci vodn\u00edch mas \u2013 s d\u016fsledky, kter\u00e9 se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt v rozporu s p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed klimatickou r\u00e9torikou: ochlazen\u00ed a\u017e o 1 \u00b0C nad Antarktidou, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 tvorba mo\u0159sk\u00e9ho ledu a zm\u011bn\u011bn\u00e9 atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 vzorce. V\u00fdvoj, kter\u00fd se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt v rozporu s logikou klimatick\u00e9 katastrofy \u2013 p\u0159esto je zalo\u017een na spolehliv\u00fdch modelech.<\/p>\n

Slo\u017eit\u00fd syst\u00e9m s vlastn\u00ed dynamikou<\/h3>\n

V\u00fdsledky model\u016f SOFIA ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee v pr\u016fb\u011bhu 21. stolet\u00ed by se cel\u00e1 oblast mezi 40\u00b0 a 70\u00b0 ji\u017en\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159ky mohla ochladit p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 0,7 \u00b0C. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se plocha mo\u0159sk\u00e9ho ledu na ji\u017en\u00ed polokouli zv\u011bt\u0161uje a\u017e o dva miliony kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch \u2013 co\u017e je n\u00e1r\u016fst, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee klimatick\u00e9 fanatiky p\u0159ekvapit. Ve skute\u010dnosti tento trend nen\u00ed nov\u00fdm jevem:\u00a0Studie publikovan\u00e1 v roce 2022<\/a> dokumentovala neust\u00e1l\u00e9 ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed Ji\u017en\u00edho oce\u00e1nu od za\u010d\u00e1tku 80. let 20. stolet\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ale pro\u010d o tom \u010dteme tak m\u00e1lo? Mo\u017en\u00e1 proto, \u017ee takov\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky neodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed narativn\u00edmu r\u00e1mci \u201eklimatick\u00e9 krize\u201c. Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee n\u00e1r\u016fst teploty je line\u00e1rn\u00edm d\u016fsledkem\u00a0lidsk\u00fdch emis\u00ed CO\u2082,<\/a>\u00a0m\u00e1 s takov\u00fdmi zp\u011btnovazebn\u00edmi efekty probl\u00e9m. Poukazuj\u00ed na syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd slep\u011b nesleduje emisn\u00ed k\u0159ivky, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e se dynamicky m\u011bn\u00ed a \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b se samokorek\u010dn\u00edmi mechanismy.<\/p>\n

Hladina mo\u0159e \u2013 napraviteln\u00e9 vedlej\u0161\u00ed \u0161kody?<\/h3>\n

\u010casto uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdm hororov\u00fdm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je, \u017ee pokud v Antarktid\u011b roztaje led, stoupne hladina mo\u0159\u00ed \u2013 a s t\u00edm i riziko pro m\u011bsta s miliony obyvatel. I toto si v\u0161ak zaslou\u017e\u00ed bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed pohled. Podle\u00a0dat a modelov\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f IPCC<\/a> povede potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed nad Antarktidou nejen k \u00fabytku ledu, ale tak\u00e9 k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu mno\u017estv\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek. Studen\u00fd vzduch bude vlh\u010d\u00ed, sn\u011b\u017een\u00ed se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed. A \u010derstv\u00fd sn\u00edh zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed hmotnost vnitrozemsk\u00e9ho ledu.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc by tyto \u00fa\u010dinky mohly dokonce sn\u00ed\u017eit \u010dist\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek Antarktidy ke zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed hladiny mo\u0159\u00ed.\u00a0Podle jin\u00e9 studie<\/a>\u00a0by teplej\u0161\u00ed antarktick\u00e9 klima vedlo k n\u00e1r\u016fstu hmotnosti a\u017e o 1,2 mm\/rok \u2013 co\u017e by mohlo zpomalit vzestup oce\u00e1n\u016f. To zn\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b jako sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 soudn\u00e9ho dne a sp\u00ed\u0161e jako p\u0159irozen\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha.<\/p>\n

Slep\u00e1 skvrna model\u016f a ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 debata<\/h3>\n

Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je to, co mnoho sou\u010dasn\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f\u00a0nezohled\u0148uje<\/em>\u00a0: systematick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsun sladk\u00e9 vody z taj\u00edc\u00edho antarktick\u00e9ho ledu. Auto\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9 studie to vyj\u00e1d\u0159ili st\u0159\u00edzliv\u011b: \u201eNa\u0161e v\u00fdsledky podporuj\u00ed my\u0161lenku, \u017ee procesy v Ji\u017en\u00edm oce\u00e1nu mohou potenci\u00e1ln\u011b zpozdit antropogenn\u00ed zm\u011bnu klimatu.\u201c Jin\u00fdmi slovy: \u00dadajn\u00fd nezastaviteln\u00fd trend oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed by ji\u017e mohl b\u00fdt zpomalen oce\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi zp\u011btn\u00fdmi vazbami.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee se takov\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry ve ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 debat\u011b objevuj\u00ed jen z\u0159\u00eddka, vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zky. Jak selektivn\u00ed je v\u00fdzkum \u2013 a jak selektivn\u00ed je informov\u00e1n\u00ed? Kde je v\u011bdeck\u00e1 zv\u011bdavost na rozpory? Diskuse se a\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 \u010dasto zu\u017euje na CO\u2082 jako jedinou relevantn\u00ed p\u00e1ku reguluj\u00edc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed klima \u2013 vysv\u011btluj\u00edc\u00ed model, kter\u00fd redukuje slo\u017eit\u00e9 fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed procesy na jednoduch\u00e9 vzorce a narativy.<\/p>\n

Od narativu klimatick\u00e9 katastrofy ke klimatick\u00e9 slo\u017eitosti<\/h3>\n

Co kdy\u017e Antarktida nen\u00ed ani klimatick\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00edtelem, ani klimatickou ob\u011bt\u00ed, ale \u2013 v tom nejlep\u0161\u00edm slova smyslu \u2013 nevypo\u010ditateln\u00fdm z\u00e1stupcem? Kontinentem, kter\u00fd se vymyk\u00e1 lidsk\u00e9 kontrole, kter\u00fd vykazuje sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed rytmy a reak\u010dn\u00ed vzorce? Pak by nastal \u010das, abychom klima ji\u017e nepova\u017eovali pouze za hrozbu, ale za syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd v sob\u011b skr\u00fdv\u00e1 i p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch pozitivn\u00edch.<\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli nov\u00e9 v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 poznatky zkoumaj\u00ed pouze jeden aspekt, podkop\u00e1vaj\u00ed jednorozm\u011brnou r\u00e9toriku klimatick\u00e9 apokalypsy. Jejich nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed provokac\u00ed nen\u00ed odchylka od konsensu, ale n\u00e1vrat k v\u011bd\u011b jako otev\u0159en\u00e9mu, protich\u016fdn\u00e9mu procesu. Ti, kdo p\u0159ij\u00edmaj\u00ed klimatick\u00e1 data pouze tehdy, pokud podporuj\u00ed jejich vlastn\u00ed narativ, nahrazuj\u00ed v\u00fdzkum v\u00edrou. P\u0159\u00edroda nefunguje podle ideologick\u00fdch sm\u011brnic a ti, kdo ji vnucuj\u00ed do politick\u00fdch dogmat, rychle ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed ze z\u0159etele \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed souvislosti.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Je to v\u016fbec mo\u017en\u00e9? Led na ji\u017en\u00edm p\u00f3lu taje \u2013 a Zem\u011b se ochlazuje? Nov\u00fd…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81822,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1648,873,1102,2700],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81821"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81821"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81821\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81822"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}