{"id":81805,"date":"2025-06-21T04:49:44","date_gmt":"2025-06-21T02:49:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81805"},"modified":"2025-06-21T04:49:44","modified_gmt":"2025-06-21T02:49:44","slug":"ocekava-trump-realisticky-ze-iran-v-omanu-kapituluje-pred-vanceem-a-witkoffem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/21\/ocekava-trump-realisticky-ze-iran-v-omanu-kapituluje-pred-vanceem-a-witkoffem\/","title":{"rendered":"O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 Trump realisticky, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n v Om\u00e1nu kapituluje p\u0159ed Vanceem a Witkoffem?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zat\u00edmco Trump v\u00e1h\u00e1 a zd\u00e1 se b\u00fdt zmaten\u00fd ohledn\u011b toho, co p\u0159esn\u011b by m\u011bl ud\u011blat d\u00e1l, \u201epos\u00edl\u00e1\u201c Vance a Witkoffa \u201evyjedn\u00e1vat s \u00cdr\u00e1nem\u201c. Pot\u00e9 na Truth Social zve\u0159ej\u0148uje v\u00fdhr\u016f\u017eku, \u017ee \u201ev\u0161ichni by m\u011bli okam\u017eit\u011b evakuovat Teher\u00e1n!\u201c (V \u010dist\u00e9m izraelsk\u00e9m stylu<\/a>). Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee jeho rozhodnut\u00edm je prozat\u00edm ponechat si v\u0161echny mo\u017enosti otev\u0159en\u00e9.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Situace v nejobecn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch term\u00ednech je takov\u00e1, \u017ee pokus Izraele a spojeneck\u00fdch zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb vyvolat \u201esynergick\u00fd psychick\u00fd \u0161ok\u201c proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu st\u00e1tu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm simult\u00e1nn\u00edch poprav v n\u011bkolika oblastech, vra\u017ed v\u011bdc\u016f, naru\u0161en\u00ed syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a vysl\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00fdm\u016f sabot\u00e9r\u016f s drony, selhal.<\/p>\n

Selhal ve sv\u00e9m o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9m v\u00fdsledku \u2013 paralyzovat a vyvolat paniku mezi \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi v\u016fdci a dokonce vytvo\u0159it prostor pro nastolen\u00ed \u201epo\u017eadovan\u00e9 atmosf\u00e9ry\u201c pro zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu. (To se nikdy nestalo. \u00cdr\u00e1nci poh\u0159b\u00edvaj\u00ed politick\u00e9 rozd\u00edly a sjednocuj\u00ed se za\u00a0n\u00e1rodn\u00ed suverenitu<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Naopak, navzdory ztr\u00e1t\u011b osmi vojensk\u00fdch velitel\u016f se syst\u00e9m rychle obnovil: syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany byly obnoveny za m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 8 hodin a \u00cdr\u00e1n odpov\u011bd\u011bl raketov\u00fdmi \u00fatoky na Izrael.<\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee krom\u011b povrchn\u00edch \u0161kod nedo\u0161lo k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu zpomalen\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu. A aby bylo jasno, to nikdy nebyl izraelsk\u00fd c\u00edl. Prost\u011b nemaj\u00ed schopnost zni\u010dit infrastrukturu ukrytou 800 metr\u016f pod horami. Sp\u00ed\u0161e doufaj\u00ed (spolu se sv\u00fdmi spojenci \u2013 USA a evropsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty) v \u201ezm\u011bnu re\u017eimu\u201c.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00a0p\u00ed\u0161e<\/a>\u00a0Chaim Leveson v Haaretz:<\/p>\n

\u010cty\u0159i dny po za\u010d\u00e1tku izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu se jej\u00ed c\u00edle st\u00e1vaj\u00ed jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi: c\u00edlem nen\u00ed pouze zastavit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd projekt, ale svrhnout re\u017eim ajatoll\u00e1h\u016f a nahradit ho re\u017eimem, kter\u00fd program ukon\u010d\u00ed s\u00e1m. Mu\u017e, kter\u00fd se v pond\u011bl\u00ed setkal s Netanjahuem, popsal jeho n\u00e1ladu jako \u201eod m\u011b k Moj\u017e\u00ed\u0161ovi, na\u0161emu p\u00e1nu\u201c. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ji\u017e nejsou st\u0159edem pozornosti. Izraelsk\u00fd zdroj [vysv\u011btlil]: \u201eV\u0161echno p\u0159ipravujeme pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. Jako ve fotbale jsme prolomili obranu soupe\u0159e … a te\u010f jsme jim p\u0159ihr\u00e1li do v\u00e1pna, kde jsou sami p\u0159ed brank\u00e1\u0159em\u201c. Netanjahuov\u00fdm c\u00edlem je sp\u00e1lit \u00cdr\u00e1n a doufat, \u017ee Trumpova megalom\u00e1nie a touha zanechat po sob\u011b odkaz ho p\u0159im\u011bj\u00ed p\u0159ipojit se k ni\u010den\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00e1 i cel\u00e9ho re\u017eimu…<\/em><\/p>\n

Situace se tedy oproti 13. \u010dervnu obr\u00e1tila. Izrael je nyn\u00ed ve velk\u00fdch pot\u00ed\u017e\u00edch: jeho protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana nefunguje a Izrael utrp\u011bl zna\u010dn\u00e9 (ov\u011b\u0159en\u00e9) \u0161kody na kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch aktivech. V podstat\u011b ka\u017ed\u00fd politik v Izraeli nyn\u00ed pros\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, aby za n\u011b vstoupily do v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Gila Gamliel, ministryn\u011b a \u010dlenka izraelsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy: \u201eKategoricky po\u017eadujeme, aby se Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty p\u0159ipojily k v\u00e1lce proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu\u201c.<\/p>\n

Co ud\u011bl\u00e1 Trump? Prozat\u00edm administrativa tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty z\u016fstanou stranou, dokud nebude zabit Ameri\u010dan. Levenson poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1:<\/p>\n

\u010cast\u00fd n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvn\u00edk B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu [v pond\u011bl\u00ed prohl\u00e1sil]: \u201eZeptal jsem se lid\u00ed prezidenta. Tato ot\u00e1zka pro n\u011b v\u016fbec nen\u00ed na po\u0159adu dne. A nen\u00ed d\u016fvod, aby byla. Izrael d\u011bl\u00e1 pr\u00e1ci za Ameriku. Dali Izraeli zelenou, to sta\u010d\u00ed. \u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Pak jsou tu Vance a Witkoff vyslan\u00ed do zahrani\u010d\u00ed, aby jednali s \u00cdr\u00e1nci. Ti ale \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed \u201e\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c,\u00a0pokud Izrael \u00fapln\u011b nezastav\u00ed palbu<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ale ani to, jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, Trumpovi nic nezaru\u010d\u00ed, pokud neopust\u00ed svou posledn\u00ed deklarovanou pozici (vyj\u00e1d\u0159enou Witkoffem minulou st\u0159edu): \u201e\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu; zni\u010den\u00ed infrastruktury pro obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed a nov\u00e1 Trumpova \u201eodhodlanost\u201c \u2013 \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 balistick\u00e9 rakety jsou stejn\u011b existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbou pro Izrael, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a \u201esvobodn\u00fd sv\u011bt\u201c jako jadern\u00fd program\u201c.<\/p>\n

Trumpovy po\u017eadavky jsou tak maximalistick\u00e9, \u017ee se v podstat\u011b jedn\u00e1 o v\u00fdzvu ke kapitulaci. \u00cdr\u00e1n v\u0161ak prozat\u00edm v raketov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed. Jeho lid je sjednocen\u00fd a m\u00e1 za sebou dlouhou historii utrpen\u00ed a smrti. Izraelci nejsou zvykl\u00ed ani na jedno, ani na druh\u00e9. Volaj\u00ed o pomoc Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 Trump realisticky, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n kapituluje v Om\u00e1nu p\u0159ed Vancem a Witkoffem? To se nestane.<\/p>\n

Trump m\u00e1 tedy \u010dty\u0159i hlavn\u00ed mo\u017enosti:
\n1) donutit \u00cdr\u00e1n kapitulovat u jednac\u00edho stolu;
\n2) zas\u00e1hnout \u00cdr\u00e1n devastuj\u00edc\u00edm \u00faderem \u2013 s c\u00edlem vynutit \u201ezm\u011bnu re\u017eimu\u201c \u2013 nebo
\n3) jednostrann\u011b zni\u010dit v\u0161ech p\u011bt hluboko zakopan\u00fdch \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch obohacovac\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed: pl\u00e1n, kter\u00fd vych\u00e1z\u00ed z p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee americk\u00e9 t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 bombard\u00e9ry jsou imunn\u00ed v\u016f\u010di \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obran\u011b ve vysok\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161k\u00e1ch.
\n\u010ctvrtou mo\u017enost\u00ed je odkl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o t\u0159et\u00ed mo\u017enost, nen\u00ed jist\u00e9, zda USA maj\u00ed schopnost sestoupit do hloubky 800 a\u017e 900 metr\u016f do nitra hor \u2013 ani za pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. A pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed (proti st\u00e1tu, kter\u00fd je nem\u00e1) by bylo p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm problematick\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu na kusy s c\u00edlem vyvolat chaos nezbytn\u00fd pro zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu by znamenalo zaveden\u00ed jin\u00e9ho geopolitick\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du \u2013 jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e pouh\u00e9 zv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed mechaniky a v\u00fdpo\u010det, zda by to mohlo usp\u011bt.<\/p>\n

Rozhodnut\u00ed pro zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu by p\u0159edstavovalo zlomov\u00fd bod. Pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d by se zm\u011bnil. Nejen rovnov\u00e1ha na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, ale i cel\u00fd paradigmat BRICS.<\/p>\n

Odvetn\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 v n\u00e1vaznosti na z\u00e1ke\u0159n\u00fd pokus o \u00fatok ze strany Izraele \u2013 p\u0159edstavuje v\u00edce ne\u017e pouhou odvetu, je to \u00fader proti symbolu sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du: nedotknuteln\u00fd Izrael, samotn\u00fd symbol z\u00e1padn\u00ed hegemonie, z\u00e1padn\u00edho v\u00fdjime\u010dnosti, z\u00e1padn\u00edho tvrzen\u00ed o technick\u00e9 neporazitelnosti \u2013 je zpochybn\u011bn a jev\u00ed se zraniteln\u00fd. Symbolicky \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 odveta zpochyb\u0148uje zakl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed m\u00fdtus Z\u00e1padu a jeho hodnoty.<\/p>\n

Mnoho v\u011bc\u00ed z\u00e1vis\u00ed na v\u00fdsledku tohoto st\u0159etu a na rozhodnut\u00ed Trumpa. To\u00a0zat\u00edn\u00ed zbytek jeho prezidentstv\u00ed<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed bylo definov\u00e1no prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edmi Ruska a \u010c\u00edny v Rad\u011b bezpe\u010dnosti. \u00davodn\u00ed z\u00e1ke\u0159n\u00fd \u00fatok Izraele, \u0159ekly, nebyl vyprovokov\u00e1n a je neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed; zcela v rozporu s Chartou OSN \u2013 a mo\u017en\u00e1 i v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm zlo\u010dinem.<\/p>\n

Rusko a \u010c\u00edna zaujaly konfliktn\u00ed postoj. Z\u00e1pad je osamocen\u00fd. Trump stoj\u00ed s oslabenou d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost\u00ed v polarizovan\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b \u2013 nyn\u00ed k\u0159eh\u010d\u00edm a neklidn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Alastair Crooke<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

Trump s\u2019attend-il de mani\u00e8re r\u00e9aliste \u00e0 ce que l\u2019Iran capitule \u00e0 Oman face \u00e0 Vance et Witkoff?<\/a> vy\u0161el 19.6.2025 na lesakerfrancophone.fr. P\u0159eklad Zv\u011bdavec<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zat\u00edmco Trump v\u00e1h\u00e1 a zd\u00e1 se b\u00fdt zmaten\u00fd ohledn\u011b toho, co p\u0159esn\u011b by m\u011bl ud\u011blat…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":72901,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,22,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81805"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81805"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81805\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}