{"id":81661,"date":"2025-06-20T00:13:40","date_gmt":"2025-06-19T22:13:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81661"},"modified":"2025-06-19T11:24:08","modified_gmt":"2025-06-19T09:24:08","slug":"drzost-zdrzenlivosti-proc-cina-nezasahne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/20\/drzost-zdrzenlivosti-proc-cina-nezasahne\/","title":{"rendered":"Drzost zdr\u017eenlivosti: Pro\u010d \u010c\u00edna nezas\u00e1hne"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ot\u00e1zka, kterou mi opakovan\u011b kladou \u2013 naposledy v souvislosti s Gazou nebo \u00cdr\u00e1nem \u2013 zn\u00ed: Pro\u010d \u010c\u00edna nezas\u00e1hne? Nebo pokud se p\u0159\u00edmo vojensky neanga\u017euje, pro\u010d alespo\u0148 nezastav\u00ed obchod s Izraelem nebo nepodpo\u0159\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n zbran\u011bmi pro sebeobranu?<\/span><\/p>\n

Abych byl up\u0159\u00edmn\u00fd, nem\u00e1m \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 jednoduch\u00e9 odpov\u011bdi. A lhal bych, kdybych se tv\u00e1\u0159il, \u017ee je m\u00e1m. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed pravidlo zn\u00ed: ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00e1 vhled do strategick\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed, klame. Tito lid\u00e9 nic neprozrad\u00ed \u2013 doslova nikdo mimo jejich nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed okruh nev\u00ed, co si mysl\u00ed. Tak\u017ee kdokoli v z\u00e1padn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00edch, kdo cituje anonymn\u00ed zdroje, kter\u00e9 \u00fadajn\u011b maj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k tajn\u00fdm jedn\u00e1n\u00edm v Pekingu, s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed nesmysly. Ani vysoce postaven\u00ed zam\u011bstnanci Xinhua, ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 tiskov\u00e9 agentury a mluv\u010d\u00ed Komunistick\u00e9 strany, nemaj\u00ed privilegovan\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k jedn\u00e1n\u00edm veden\u00ed strany. Je zcela vylou\u010den\u00e9, \u017ee by ho z\u00e1padn\u00ed novin\u00e1\u0159i m\u011bli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017eeme v\u011bd\u011bt \u2013 a s trochou v\u00fdzkumu by to mohl v\u011bd\u011bt kdokoli \u2013 jsou d\u011bjiny \u010c\u00edny a to, co sama zve\u0159ejnila o z\u00e1sad\u00e1ch sv\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky. Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo se touto problematikou v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zab\u00fdv\u00e1, najde p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b jasn\u00e9 odpov\u011bdi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historicky se \u010c\u00edna od konce druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky zapojila p\u0159esn\u011b do p\u011bti mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch ozbrojen\u00fdch konflikt\u016f: korejsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky (1950\u20131953), v n\u00ed\u017e bojovala na stran\u011b Severn\u00ed Koreje proti Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm; vietnamsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, v n\u00ed\u017e 300 000 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f podporovalo Severn\u00ed Vietnam; pohrani\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lky s Indi\u00ed v roce 1962, vyvolan\u00e9 indick\u00fdmi vp\u00e1dy na sporn\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed, jako je Aksaj\u010din; vojensk\u00fdch st\u0159et\u016f se Sov\u011btsk\u00fdm svazem na konci 60. let, nap\u0159\u00edklad b\u011bhem Ussursk\u00e9ho incidentu; a kr\u00e1tk\u00e9, ale krvav\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti Vietnamu v roce 1979 po vietnamsk\u00e9 invazi do Kambod\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti, jako je tchajwansk\u00e1 krize, invaze do Tibetu v letech 1950\u20131951 nebo ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 incidenty na hranic\u00edch v \u00fadol\u00ed Galwan s Indi\u00ed, jsou podle mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za vnit\u0159n\u00ed nebo m\u00edstn\u00ed spory, a nikoli za vojensk\u00e9 intervence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzorec je jasn\u00fd: \u010c\u00edna vojensky zasahuje pouze tehdy, kdy\u017e vid\u00ed ohro\u017een\u00ed sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00ed celistvosti nebo bezpe\u010dnosti. Ve sv\u00e9 tis\u00edcilet\u00e9 historii nikdy vojensky nezas\u00e1hla mimo sv\u00e9 sousedstv\u00ed \u2013 zejm\u00e9na ne v konfliktech, kter\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edmo neovliv\u0148uj\u00ed jej\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost. Je extr\u00e9mn\u011b nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd v\u016fdce tento historicky hluboce zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00fd vzorec prolomil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je tak\u00e9 to, \u017ee dv\u011b z p\u011bti v\u00e1lek, kter\u00e9 \u010c\u00edna vedla, byly proti Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm \u2013 a ob\u011b vyhr\u00e1la, p\u0159esto\u017ee v t\u00e9 dob\u011b st\u00e1le pat\u0159ila k nejchud\u0161\u00edm zem\u00edm sv\u011bta. P\u0159ipom\u00ednka, kter\u00e1 by pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 jest\u0159\u00e1by ve Washingtonu mohla b\u00fdt nev\u00edtan\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

To n\u00e1s p\u0159iv\u00e1d\u00ed k ot\u00e1zce princip\u016f. \u00dast\u0159edn\u00edm bodem \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky je striktn\u00ed nevm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed se do vnit\u0159n\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed jin\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. I v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jasn\u00e9ho agresora \u010c\u00edna vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed odm\u00edt\u00e1, proto\u017ee by poru\u0161ilo suverenitu \u2013 i kdy\u017e mor\u00e1ln\u011b stoj\u00ed na stran\u011b ob\u011bti. To, co se v z\u00e1padn\u00ed politice \u010dasto jev\u00ed jako cynick\u00fd pragmatismus, je v \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00edm konzistentn\u00edho principu: principy plat\u00ed i tehdy, kdy\u017e je to nepohodln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed: Respektujete suverenitu zem\u011b pouze tehdy, kdy\u017e souhlas\u00edte s jej\u00ed politikou? Nebo i kdy\u017e s n\u00ed nesouhlas\u00edte? \u010c\u00edna se sna\u017e\u00ed o to druh\u00e9. Lp\u00ed na suverenit\u011b, i kdy\u017e je to obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Izraele nebo \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto chov\u00e1n\u00ed vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed paradox: T\u00edm, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna nezasahuje, usnad\u0148uje ostatn\u00edm st\u00e1t\u016fm, aby tak u\u010dinily. \u010c\u00edna v\u0161ak v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee principy v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed skrze d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost a p\u0159\u00edkladn\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 nikoli silou nebo n\u00e1tlakem. Selektivn\u00ed intervence by z \u010c\u00edny ud\u011blala dal\u0161\u00edho hegemona, kter\u00fd by podle libosti poru\u0161oval pravidla.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna chce demonstrovat sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d, v n\u011bm\u017e m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t uplat\u0148ovat vliv, ani\u017e by prom\u00edtal vojenskou s\u00edlu. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed model \u2013 podle \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho protiobrazu \u2013 je zalo\u017een na n\u00e1sil\u00ed, pokrytectv\u00ed a dvoj\u00edm metru. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 alternativa: dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sad, trp\u011blivost a zdr\u017eenlivost. C\u00edlem je dlouhodob\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost, nikoli kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e1 v\u00fdhoda.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna rovn\u011b\u017e odm\u00edt\u00e1 jakoukoli blokovou politiku. Prezident Si \u0164in-pching opakovan\u011b zd\u016fraz\u0148oval odm\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed my\u0161len\u00ed studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, sf\u00e9r vlivu a konfrontace. Vojensk\u00e1 podpora \u00cdr\u00e1nu nebo Gazy by \u010c\u00ednu okam\u017eit\u011b za\u0159adila do protiamerick\u00e9ho bloku \u2013 p\u0159esn\u011b do bipol\u00e1rn\u00ed logiky, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed vyhnout. To by nejen podkopalo \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d, ale tak\u00e9 zni\u010dilo jej\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost jako nehegemonn\u00ed mocnosti \u2013 zejm\u00e9na na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm Jihu, kde je vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako alternativa k z\u00e1padn\u00ed dominanci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historick\u00e9 podobenstv\u00ed z roku 288 p\u0159. n. l. ilustruje strategick\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed \u010c\u00edny: Dv\u011b soupe\u0159\u00edc\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e, \u010cchin a \u010cchi, se ob\u011b prohl\u00e1sily za c\u00edsa\u0159e. Benevolentn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1t \u010cchi v\u0161ak v d\u016fsledku tohoto kroku ztratil svou mor\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdhodu \u2013 a nakonec byl \u010cchin zni\u010den. Ponau\u010den\u00ed: Kdokoli jedn\u00e1 jako spoluvl\u00e1dce, ztr\u00e1c\u00ed sv\u00e9 zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed postaven\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Multilateralismus je tak\u00e9 \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm prvkem \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky. \u010c\u00edna usiluje o skute\u010dn\u00fd multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d podporovan\u00fd OSN. Nebude jednostrann\u011b zasahovat \u2013 ani v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee je syst\u00e9m blokov\u00e1n. Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo ignoruje syst\u00e9m OSN, ni\u010d\u00ed jakoukoli autoritu, kterou by mohl pou\u017e\u00edt k jeho obran\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strategicky se \u010c\u00edna tak\u00e9 vyh\u00fdb\u00e1 nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9mu p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00ed, kter\u00e9 kdysi zni\u010dilo Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz a nyn\u00ed oslabuje Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. M\u00edsto pl\u00fdtv\u00e1n\u00ed zdroji na vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 intervence se \u010c\u00edna zam\u011b\u0159uje na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed rozvoj \u2013 co\u017e je \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd model, kter\u00fd hodl\u00e1 zachovat. Vojensk\u00e9 dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm tak\u00e9 poskytlo munici k pos\u00edlen\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii a v okol\u00ed Tchaj-wanu \u2013 co\u017e by Pekingu neprosp\u011blo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Znovusjednocen\u00ed s Tchaj-wanem, hlavn\u00ed strategick\u00fd c\u00edl \u010c\u00edny, vy\u017eaduje obraz stability a nad\u0159azenosti \u2013 nikoliv agresivn\u00edho hegemona. Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo se vojensky zaplete do celosv\u011btov\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, tento obraz ztr\u00e1c\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Se\u010dteno a podtr\u017eeno: A\u0165 u\u017e z historick\u00e9ho, principi\u00e1ln\u00edho nebo strategick\u00e9ho hlediska, v\u0161e hovo\u0159\u00ed ve prosp\u011bch toho, aby \u010c\u00edna nezasahovala. Proti\u0159e\u010dilo by to jej\u00ed politick\u00e9 identit\u011b, zni\u010dilo by jej\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost a ohrozilo jej\u00ed strategick\u00e9 c\u00edle. Zda bude tato cesta z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e z\u00e1padn\u00ed demonstrace moci, se teprve uvid\u00ed. Je to v\u0161ak skute\u010dn\u00e1 alternativa k syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd a\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 \u010dasto kon\u010d\u00ed n\u00e1sil\u00edm, intervencemi a pokrytectv\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

A jakkoli bolestiv\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt vid\u011bt ne\u010dinnost tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 lidsk\u00fdm trag\u00e9di\u00edm, jako byla ta v Gaze, pokus \u010c\u00edny o model odli\u0161n\u00e9 role velmoci si zaslou\u017e\u00ed p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm respekt. Mo\u017en\u00e1 i obdiv \u2013 za svou radik\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fslednost a odvahu odm\u00edtnout cyklus n\u00e1sil\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od Arnauda Bertranda<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ot\u00e1zka, kterou mi opakovan\u011b kladou \u2013 naposledy v souvislosti s Gazou nebo \u00cdr\u00e1nem \u2013 zn\u00ed:…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3807,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,38,107],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81661"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81661"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81661\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}