{"id":81539,"date":"2025-06-18T00:19:07","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T22:19:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81539"},"modified":"2025-06-17T13:51:18","modified_gmt":"2025-06-17T11:51:18","slug":"jiri-paroubek-ma-izraelsky-utok-na-iran-smysl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/18\/jiri-paroubek-ma-izraelsky-utok-na-iran-smysl\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: M\u00e1 izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n smysl?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Kdy\u017e jsem v roce 2006 jako \u010desk\u00fd premi\u00e9r nav\u0161t\u00edvil v r\u00e1mci sv\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy Egypt, m\u011bl jsem zhruba dvouhodinov\u00e9 setk\u00e1n\u00ed a diskusi s tehdej\u0161\u00edm prezidentem Mubarakem. Proz\u00e1padn\u00edho, autokratick\u00e9ho prezidenta Mubaraka odv\u00e1l sice \u010das a politika Egypta se posunula od jednozna\u010dn\u00e9 orientace na USA, tak\u00e9 ke spolupr\u00e1ci s v\u00fdchodn\u00edmi mocnostmi Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou. Ne nadarmo se stal Egypt \u010dlenem sdru\u017een\u00ed BRICS.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ale zp\u00e1tky k Mubarakovi. Bylo to zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 setk\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by m\u011bli povinn\u011b absolvovat p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm poradci americk\u00e9ho prezidenta B. Obamy, v jeho\u017e \u00e9\u0159e bylo zah\u00e1jeno v roce 2011 tzv. arabsk\u00e9 jaro. To destabilizovalo n\u011bkter\u00e9 st\u00e1ty St\u0159edn\u00edho v\u00fdchodu, jako jsou S\u00fdrie a Libye, z\u0159ejm\u011b nevratn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem. A Egypt k takov\u00e9 devastaci nem\u011bl daleko. Jen arm\u00e1dn\u00ed p\u0159evrat zabr\u00e1nil prezidentovi z \u0159ad Muslimsk\u00e9ho bratrstva p\u0159em\u011bnit tento ob\u0159\u00ed st\u00e1t v islamistickou autokracii. Mubarak mn\u011b tehdy, tedy v roce 2006 vysv\u011btloval, \u017ee podm\u00ednky pro zaveden\u00ed demokracie jsou v Egypt\u011b minim\u00e1ln\u00ed. Socialist\u016f je p\u00e1r des\u00edtek tis\u00edc, liber\u00e1l\u016f rovn\u011b\u017e… A tyto politick\u00e9 s\u00edly nemaj\u00ed proti Muslimsk\u00e9mu bratrstvu \u0161anci hr\u00e1t v politice zem\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed roli. Tedy, pokud v zemi dojde k demokratick\u00fdm volb\u00e1m, co\u017e se skute\u010dn\u011b tak\u00e9 stalo kr\u00e1tce po Mubarakov\u011b p\u00e1du.<\/p>\n

Mubarak na m\u011b nal\u00e9hal, abych zpracoval z na\u0161eho rozhovoru a jeho politick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkladu memorandum pro \u0161\u00e9fy st\u00e1t\u016f a vl\u00e1d zem\u00ed NATO a EU. To jsem tak\u00e9 po sv\u00e9m n\u00e1vratu do Prahy ud\u011blal. Co bylo obsahem memoranda? U\u017e tehdy Izrael, ale tak\u00e9 n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed politici, operoval s nebezpe\u010d\u00edm \u201e\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b\u201c, kter\u00e1 je potaj\u00ed p\u0159ipravov\u00e1na \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm veden\u00edm. V t\u00e9 dob\u011b se hovo\u0159ilo tak\u00e9 o mo\u017enosti spole\u010dn\u00e9ho \u00fatoku Izraele a Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd atomov\u00fd program. Hovo\u0159ilo se dokonce i o vysl\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch kontingent\u016f do t\u00e9to zem\u011b a o regul\u00e9rn\u00ed v\u00e1lce. Mubarak m\u011b v podstat\u011b sd\u011blil, \u017ee takov\u00fd spole\u010dn\u00fd \u00fatok Izraele a Ameri\u010dan\u016f na \u00cdr\u00e1n by znamenal smeten\u00ed v\u0161ech proz\u00e1padn\u00edch politick\u00fdch elit v arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tech. Je pot\u0159eba vn\u00edmat skute\u010dnost, \u017ee ve velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti arabsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed byly a jsou politick\u00e9 elity v podstat\u011b proz\u00e1padn\u00ed. A arabsk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost v t\u011bchto autokratick\u00fdch re\u017eimech je v z\u00e1sad\u011b protiizraelsk\u00e1 a protiamerick\u00e1.<\/p>\n

To, co \u0159\u00edkal Mubarak, m\u011blo svou logiku a i j\u00e1 s\u00e1m jsem po zku\u0161enostech s intervenc\u00ed zem\u00ed Z\u00e1padu veden\u00fdch Ameri\u010dany v Ir\u00e1ku siln\u011b pochyboval o \u00fa\u010delnosti a \u00fasp\u011bchu takov\u00e9 operace. Pova\u017eoval bych ji za ne\u0161\u0165astnou a politicky zcela zcestnou. Na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed k v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem tehdy nedo\u0161lo.<\/p>\n

V polovin\u011b roku 2008 jsem v \u010dele delegace \u010cSSD nav\u0161t\u00edvil Izrael a m\u011bl jsem mo\u017enosti diskutovat s \u0159adou izraelsk\u00fdch \u010dinitel\u016f a tak\u00e9 voj\u00e1k\u016f. Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st t\u011bchto lid\u00ed n\u00e1s p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dovala o tom, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd nejen pro Izrael, ale t\u00edm, \u017ee vyv\u00edj\u00ed (mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed) rakety dalek\u00e9ho doletu, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd tak\u00e9 pro Evropu. Pova\u017eovali jsme tato sd\u011blen\u00ed Izraelc\u016f za poh\u00e1dku z \u0159\u00ed\u0161e Tis\u00edce a jedn\u00e9 noci. Konec konc\u016f do dne\u0161ka \u00cdr\u00e1n nem\u00e1 ani jadernou zbra\u0148 a nem\u00e1 ani rakety schopn\u00e9 operovat na tak velkou vzd\u00e1lenost. Tedy pro Evropu nen\u00ed do dne\u0161n\u00edch dn\u016f nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd. A nev\u00edm, pro\u010d by vlastn\u011b cht\u011bl b\u00fdt pro Evropu nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd. Mo\u017en\u00e1 ve fantazii n\u011bkter\u00fdch izraelsk\u00fdch politick\u00fdch a vojensk\u00fdch \u010dinitel\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed by r\u00e1di zat\u00e1hli do konfliktu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem i Z\u00e1pad. A samoz\u0159ejm\u011b na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b se jedn\u00e1 o Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b poskytuj\u00ed Izraeli nepochybn\u011b vojensk\u00e9 informace a \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed se na eliminaci balistick\u00fdch raket let\u00edc\u00edch na c\u00edle v Izraeli. \u00cdr\u00e1n i po neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9 likvidaci vojensk\u00fdch \u0161pi\u010dek zem\u011b p\u0159i prvn\u00edm \u00fatoku Izraele (bez vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky) se vzpamatoval a zasahuje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle na \u00fazem\u00ed Izraele sv\u00fdmi balistick\u00fdmi st\u0159elami, ale tak\u00e9 drony a hypersonick\u00fdmi raketami. Vojenskou s\u00edlu t\u00e9to 90ti milionov\u00e9 zem\u011b nelze podce\u0148ovat. P\u0159edchoz\u00ed zku\u0161enosti s \u00cdr\u00e1nem sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o tom, \u017ee jakkoliv je re\u017eim ajjatol\u00e1hu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu pro v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti obyvatel nepopul\u00e1rn\u00ed, zem\u011b se v\u017edy semkla p\u0159i \u00fatoc\u00edch z vn\u011bj\u0161ku proti agresorovi. Je dob\u0159e, \u017ee Izrael \u00fato\u010d\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle, ale samoz\u0159ejm\u011b vznikaj\u00ed i tzv. \u201evedlej\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty \u201c, jak se eufemisticky \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 nevinn\u00fdm ob\u011btem z \u0159ad civiln\u00edho obyvatelstva.<\/p>\n

A tot\u00e9\u017e za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 Izrael, kdy\u017e \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed na vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle (nap\u0159. ministerstvo obrany v Tel Avivu) i infrastrukturn\u00ed c\u00edle (rafin\u00e9rie v Haif\u011b) vedou rovn\u011b\u017e k \u201evedlej\u0161\u00edm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m\u201c z \u0159ad izraelsk\u00e9ho civiln\u00edho obyvatelstva.<\/p>\n

Izrael ovl\u00e1dl oblohu nad \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Podle v\u0161eho \u2013 soud\u011b podle nezv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 radiace kolem jadern\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 nedo\u0161lo k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9mu z\u00e1sahu t\u011bchto za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 jsou ukryta v hlubok\u00e9m podzem\u00ed. K tomu, aby je Izrael zni\u010dil, nem\u00e1 pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 zbra\u0148ov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u011bc\u00ed je, jak\u00e9 jsou skute\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch balistick\u00fdch a jin\u00fdch raket a dron\u016f, aby vysta\u010dily k veden\u00ed alespo\u0148 n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f trvaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lky s Izraelem. Podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch informac\u00ed m\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1n k dispozici a\u017e 20 000 raket. N\u011bkter\u00e9 zdroje tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee disponuje „jen“ 3 000 a\u017e 5 000 raketami (!)\u2026.<\/p>\n

Z nich\u017e \u010d\u00e1st je pr\u00fd um\u00edst\u011bna v podzemn\u00edch silech v horsk\u00fdch oblastech nebo p\u0159\u00edmo v horsk\u00fdch \u00fadol\u00edch, kam se izraelsk\u00e1 bombardovac\u00ed letadla t\u011b\u017eko dostanou, proto\u017ee by byla snadn\u00fdm c\u00edlem pro protivzdu\u0161nou obranu.<\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b telefon\u00e1t mezi prezidenty Putinem a Trumpem ukazuje, \u017ee tyto dv\u011b velmoci se necht\u011bj\u00ed nechat zat\u00e1hnout do konfliktu mezi ob\u011bma v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00edmi stranami. V.Putin ned\u00e1vno podepsal dohodu o strategick\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, kter\u00e1 se nepochybn\u011b zab\u00fdvala mj. tak\u00e9 dod\u00e1vkou sofistikovan\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch zbra\u0148ov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

To byl podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru jeden z faktor\u016f, pro\u010d se Izrael rozhodl zas\u00e1hnout vojensky d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017eli budou tyto syst\u00e9my dod\u00e1ny.<\/p>\n

A druh\u00fd d\u016fvod je ten, \u017ee velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bylo bl\u00edzko k uzav\u0159en\u00ed dohody o \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m programu mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Izrael pochopiteln\u011b tvrd\u00ed opak. Pokud maj\u00ed pravdu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zdroje, pak by izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n postr\u00e1dal jak\u00fdkoliv smysl.<\/p>\n

Prezident Putin udr\u017euje dobr\u00e9 vztahy jak s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, tak s Izraelem a m\u016f\u017ee tedy p\u0159isp\u011bt, s podporou Ameri\u010dan\u016f, k ukon\u010den\u00ed t\u00e9to zbyte\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Tento konflikt, \u010d\u00edm d\u00e9le bude trvat, t\u00edm v\u00edce bude patrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee je avanturistick\u00fd. Co\u017e je rys p\u0159\u00edzna\u010dn\u00fd pro v\u0161echny politick\u00e9 \u010diny a vojensk\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed Netanjahuova kabinetu od 7.\u0159\u00edjna 2023. Ale \u00cdr\u00e1n je zjevn\u011b t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed soupe\u0159 a t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 v\u00e1ha ne\u017eli Ham\u00e1s, Hizball\u00e1h, \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u0161\u00editsk\u00e9 milice v Ir\u00e1ku \u010di hut\u00edov\u00e9. T\u011b\u017eko si um\u00edm p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee Netanjahu tento v\u00e1hov\u00fd rozd\u00edl mezi v\u00e1hami mu\u0161\u00edmi a vahou t\u011b\u017ekou, nevid\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1 mu jde pouze o to, aby ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m po\u017e\u00e1ru, kter\u00fd lze jen t\u011b\u017eko uhasit, se udr\u017eel co nejd\u00e9le u moci a zamezil tak sv\u00e9mu trestn\u00edmu st\u00edh\u00e1n\u00ed. A to jak izraelsk\u00fdmi soudy, tak soudem v Haagu.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kdy\u017e jsem v roce 2006 jako \u010desk\u00fd premi\u00e9r nav\u0161t\u00edvil v r\u00e1mci sv\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy Egypt,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":20751,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[38,107,1503,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81539"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81539"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81539\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20751"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81539"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81539"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81539"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}