{"id":81533,"date":"2025-06-18T00:25:20","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T22:25:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81533"},"modified":"2025-06-17T12:47:57","modified_gmt":"2025-06-17T10:47:57","slug":"lucas-leiroz-izraelske-provokace-vedou-k-novemu-otevrenemu-konfliktu-na-blizkem-vychode","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/18\/lucas-leiroz-izraelske-provokace-vedou-k-novemu-otevrenemu-konfliktu-na-blizkem-vychode\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Izraelsk\u00e9 provokace vedou k nov\u00e9mu otev\u0159en\u00e9mu konfliktu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee izraelsk\u00fd re\u017eim m\u00e1 omezenou vojenskou s\u00edlu, aby mohl \u010delit dlouhodob\u00e9mu konfliktu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/h3>\n

Situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le kritick\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. 13. \u010dervna Izrael zah\u00e1jil kampa\u0148 \u00fatok\u016f proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu \u00fazem\u00ed, zas\u00e1hl hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto zem\u011b a zavra\u017edil n\u011bkolik kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f. Izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky prob\u00edhaly jak prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00edha\u010dkami, raketami a dron\u016f, tak prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm zpravodajsk\u00fdch operac\u00ed a c\u00edlen\u00fdch atent\u00e1t\u016f s vyu\u017eit\u00edm vnit\u0159n\u00edch sabot\u00e9r\u016f, \u010d\u00edm\u017e zah\u00e1jil dal\u0161\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00fd, p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd konflikt v regionu Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izraelskou v\u00fdmluvou pro svou vojenskou kampa\u0148 byla \u00fadajn\u00e1 \u201epot\u0159eba\u201c naru\u0161it \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd\u00a0<\/span>jadern\u00fd program<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a odradit Teher\u00e1n, aby donutil perskou zemi akceptovat jednostrann\u00e9 podm\u00ednky stanoven\u00e9 osou Tel Aviv-Washington v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch o jadern\u00e9 dohod\u011b. Z tohoto d\u016fvodu byly \u00fatoky nam\u00ed\u0159eny p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm, krom\u011b c\u00edlen\u00e9ho zab\u00edjen\u00ed v\u011bdc\u016f specializuj\u00edc\u00edch se na jadern\u00e9 technologie. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 p\u0159edlo\u017eily d\u016fkazy, v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>jasn\u00fdch z\u00e1b\u011br\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, o \u00fatoc\u00edch na civiln\u00ed c\u00edle, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v d\u016fsledku izraelsk\u00fdch bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed zem\u0159ely d\u011bti.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 reakce v\u0161ak p\u0159i\u0161la kr\u00e1tce pot\u00e9. Jen n\u011bkolik hodin po izraelsk\u00e9 provokaci zah\u00e1jila \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da masivn\u00ed bombardovac\u00ed kampa\u0148 proti Izraeli. Balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely byly pou\u017eity proti vojensk\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm, infrastruktu\u0159e a vl\u00e1dn\u00edm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm po cel\u00e9m Izraeli, v\u010detn\u011b Tel Avivu. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee d\u016fsledky \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady velmi p\u0159ekvapily a rozhodn\u011b nebyly p\u0159ipraveny na tak rozs\u00e1hlou odvetu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezi c\u00edli zasa\u017een\u00fdmi \u00cdr\u00e1nem p\u0159i prvn\u00edch bombov\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch byly izraelsk\u00e9 baterie protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany.\u00a0Na internetu koluj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>sn\u00edmky , kter\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed, jak jsou za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed Iron Dome okam\u017eit\u011b zni\u010dena kv\u016fli siln\u00e9mu dopadu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raket. To zna\u010dn\u011b usnadnilo n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky, proto\u017ee oslabilo schopnost Izraele odrazit bombov\u00e9 \u00fatoky.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

V n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch dnech se \u00fatoky na obou stran\u00e1ch opakovaly. Dynamika st\u0159\u00eddav\u00fdch vln bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed je patrn\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00fd den. Izrael v ur\u010dit\u00fdch denn\u00edch dob\u00e1ch zahajuje \u00fatoky, na kter\u00e9 n\u00e1sledn\u011b reaguje \u00cdr\u00e1n \u2013 co\u017e je typick\u00e9 pro sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u00e1lky na d\u00e1lku, kde ob\u011b v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00ed strany nemaj\u00ed spole\u010dnou hranici a spol\u00e9haj\u00ed se na bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed raketami, d\u011blost\u0159electvem, drony a letadly, aby nep\u0159\u00edteli zp\u016fsobily \u0161kody.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 sledovat\u00a0<\/span>vysokou \u00farove\u0148 ni\u010den\u00ed,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0kter\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety zanechaly v izraelsk\u00fdch m\u011bstech. Obr\u00e1zky koluj\u00edc\u00ed na internetu ukazuj\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u00ed zni\u010den\u00ed n\u011bkolika izraelsk\u00fdch budov, z nich\u017e mnoh\u00e9 pat\u0159\u00ed vojensk\u00fdm nebo politick\u00fdm instituc\u00edm s vysok\u00fdm v\u00fdznamem pro izraelskou spole\u010dnost. Izraelsk\u00e1 infrastruktura je tak\u00e9 ter\u010dem obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b Teher\u00e1nu, kter\u00fd odp\u00e1lil rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 rakety proti p\u0159\u00edstavu v Haif\u011b a m\u00edstn\u00edm elektr\u00e1rn\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dosavadn\u00ed konflikt jasn\u011b uk\u00e1zal vojenskou v\u00fdhodu \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Izrael efektivn\u011b prov\u00e1d\u011bl c\u00edlen\u00e9 atent\u00e1ty a rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 sabot\u00e1\u017en\u00ed operace a dokonce se mu poda\u0159ilo infiltrovat drony na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm\u017e zas\u00e1hl sv\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1tele zevnit\u0159. Zd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee tyto pokusy o \u201edekapitulaci\u201c maj\u00ed proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu jen mal\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek, proto\u017ee je to vnit\u0159n\u011b dob\u0159e organizovan\u00fd a soudr\u017en\u00fd st\u00e1t, jeho\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina d\u016fstojn\u00edk\u016f sd\u00edl\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 hodnoty, c\u00edle a principy.<\/span><\/p>\n

V praxi je atent\u00e1t na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho velitele nebo vysoce postaven\u00e9ho politika pouh\u00fdm uvoln\u011bn\u00edm m\u00edsta pro jin\u00e9ho podobn\u011b sm\u00fd\u0161lej\u00edc\u00edho d\u016fstojn\u00edka. Izraeli se sotva poda\u0159\u00ed z\u00edskat stejnou strategickou v\u00fdhodu proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, jakou dos\u00e1hl s\u0165at\u00edm v\u016fdc\u016f protiizraelsk\u00fdch milic\u00ed v Gaze a Libanonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izrael z\u0159ejm\u011b zoufale pot\u0159ebuje mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed podporu. Vzhledem k siln\u00e9mu odsouzen\u00ed ze strany Ruska, \u010c\u00edny a velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu nem\u00e1 Tel Aviv jinou mo\u017enost ne\u017e po\u017e\u00e1dat o pomoc Ameriku a Evropu. Navzdory z\u00e1padn\u00ed podpo\u0159e izraelsk\u00e9 r\u00e9toriky o \u201esebeobran\u011b\u201c \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd v\u016fdce dosud neprojevil ochotu p\u0159\u00edmo se zapojit do v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 co\u017e je p\u0159irozen\u00e9 vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je v\u00fdznamnou vojenskou mocnost\u00ed a jak\u00e1koli v\u00e1lka proti n\u011bmu nevyhnuteln\u011b povede k nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 eskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n o\u010dek\u00e1van\u011b ozn\u00e1mil \u00fapln\u00fd z\u00e1kaz v\u0161ech diplomatick\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o jadern\u00e9 dohod\u011b. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee izraelsk\u00e1 strana \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na Teher\u00e1n a medi\u00e1tor (USA) je podez\u0159el\u00fd ze spolu\u00fa\u010dasti, neexistoval d\u016fvod, aby \u00cdr\u00e1nci v takov\u00fdch rozhovorech pokra\u010dovali. \u00cdr\u00e1n nav\u00edc ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee p\u0159ezkoum\u00e1 svou jadernou politiku, a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n brzy vyd\u00e1 nov\u00e9 pokyny k t\u00e9to z\u00e1le\u017eitosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud izraelsk\u00fd z\u00e1m\u011br skute\u010dn\u011b zahrnoval odradit \u00cdr\u00e1n a p\u0159im\u011bt ho k p\u0159ijet\u00ed dohody navr\u017een\u00e9 USA, pak c\u00edl kampan\u011b selhal, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v reakci na izraelskou agresi \u00cdr\u00e1n jednal se zna\u010dnou silou a nezd\u00e1 se, \u017ee by izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok utrp\u011bl n\u011bjak\u00fd mor\u00e1ln\u00ed ani psychologick\u00fd dopad.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 brzy hovo\u0159it o budoucnosti konfliktu, ale probl\u00e9m je naprosto znepokojiv\u00fd, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu, \u017ee Izrael je jadern\u00e1 mocnost a mohl by v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u201eexisten\u010dn\u00ed hrozby\u201c pou\u017e\u00edt sv\u016fj extr\u00e9mn\u00ed arzen\u00e1l. Bez jadern\u00e9ho faktoru je vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159evaha \u00cdr\u00e1nu naprosto nezpochybniteln\u00e1. Teher\u00e1n se upevnil jako nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 mocnost na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, a to navzdory z\u00e1padn\u00ed propagand\u011b, kter\u00e1 trv\u00e1 na p\u0159ece\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00edly izraelsk\u00e9 IDF.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 vid\u011bt, zda ob\u011b strany budou jednat s n\u00e1le\u017eitou zdr\u017eenlivost\u00ed, aby zabr\u00e1nily bezprecedentn\u00ed eskalaci, nebo zda se konflikt v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch dnech bude d\u00e1le vyost\u0159ovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz,<\/a> \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Centra pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee izraelsk\u00fd re\u017eim m\u00e1 omezenou vojenskou s\u00edlu, aby mohl \u010delit dlouhodob\u00e9mu konfliktu s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81534,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81533"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81533"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81533\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81534"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}