{"id":81462,"date":"2025-06-17T00:41:28","date_gmt":"2025-06-16T22:41:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81462"},"modified":"2025-06-16T18:17:21","modified_gmt":"2025-06-16T16:17:21","slug":"arnaud-bertrand-bude-aukus-zrusen-aliance-na-pokraji-kolapsu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/17\/arnaud-bertrand-bude-aukus-zrusen-aliance-na-pokraji-kolapsu\/","title":{"rendered":"Arnaud Bertrand: Bude AUKUS zru\u0161en? Aliance na pokraji kolapsu"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p>Sotva skon\u010dily ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 rozhovory mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou v Lond\u00fdn\u011b, Pentagon ozn\u00e1mil p\u0159ezkum, zda by USA m\u011bly pokra\u010dovat v AUKUS \u2013 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed alianci s Austr\u00e1li\u00ed a Velkou Brit\u00e1ni\u00ed. Na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zky. A\u010dkoli se rozhovory ofici\u00e1ln\u011b t\u00fdkaly obchodu, nikoli obrany, shoda okolnost\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pozoruhodn\u00e1: Bezprost\u0159edn\u011b po diplomatick\u00fdch v\u00fdm\u011bn\u00e1ch s \u010c\u00ednou Washington otev\u0159en\u011b zva\u017euje ukon\u010den\u00ed aliance, kter\u00e1 je v\u00fdslovn\u011b nam\u00ed\u0159ena proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AUKUS \u2013 kontroverzn\u00ed od sam\u00e9ho za\u010d\u00e1tku<\/h3>\n<p>Pro p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed, AUKUS vznikl v roce 2021, kdy Austr\u00e1lie bez varov\u00e1n\u00ed zru\u0161ila dohodu s Franci\u00ed v hodnot\u011b 66 miliard dolar\u016f na n\u00e1kup konven\u010dn\u00edch ponorek ve prosp\u011bch americk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch ponorek. Nyn\u00ed je zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee tehdej\u0161\u00ed britsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Boris Johnson na summitu G7 v roce 2021 tla\u010dil na americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Joea Bidena, aby s Austr\u00e1li\u00ed uzav\u0159el tajnou obrannou dohodu \u2013 z osobn\u00ed z\u00e1\u0161ti v\u016f\u010di Emmanuelu Macronovi, kter\u00e9ho podez\u0159\u00edval z toho, \u017ee jako \u201epomstu za Brexit\u201c nezastavil proud uprchlick\u00fdch lod\u00ed p\u0159es Laman\u0161sk\u00fd pr\u016fliv.<\/p>\n<p>Johnson se ve sv\u00fdch pam\u011btech chlub\u00ed, \u017ee dohodu prosadil \u2013 politick\u00fd man\u00e9vr s geopolitick\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky. To, co za\u010dalo jako britsko-americk\u00e1 ur\u00e1\u017eka Francie, se rychle stalo v\u00fdbu\u0161nou p\u00e1kou proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Velk\u00fd slib \u2013 a jeho zhroucen\u00ed<\/h3>\n<p>Nyn\u00ed se ale zd\u00e1, \u017ee sl\u00edben\u00e9 americk\u00e9 ponorky\u00a0<strong>nikdy nebudou dod\u00e1ny<\/strong>\u00a0. Na konci roku 2024 s\u00e1m americk\u00fd Kongres p\u0159iznal, \u017ee americk\u00fd lo\u010fa\u0159sk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl je tak slab\u00fd, \u017ee sotva dok\u00e1\u017ee pokr\u00fdt sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed pot\u0159eby \u2013 nato\u017e ty australsk\u00e9. Aby americk\u00fd obrann\u00fd pr\u016fmysl splnil po\u017eadavky AUKUS, musel by ro\u010dn\u011b vyrobit 2,33 ponorek. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b dok\u00e1\u017ee vyrobit sotva 1,2. Export do Austr\u00e1lie by proto znamenal oslaben\u00ed vlastn\u00ed flotily \u2013 co\u017e je poru\u0161en\u00ed americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 doktr\u00edny.<\/p>\n<p>USA \u010del\u00ed dilematu:\u00a0<strong>Bu\u010f zru\u0161\u00ed program AUKUS<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 a t\u00edm riskuj\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu tv\u00e1\u0159e v zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice \u2013 nebo v n\u011bm budou pokra\u010dovat a oslab\u00ed americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo. Skute\u010dn\u00fdm d\u016fvodem je\u00a0<strong>pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 kapitulace Ameriky<\/strong>\u00a0.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NATO v\u00edtaj\u00ed: Velk\u00e9 sliby, pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9 z\u00e1sobn\u00edky<\/h3>\n<p>Tento vzorec nen\u00ed nov\u00fd. NATO se podobn\u011b p\u0159ehnalo i na Ukrajin\u011b. Gener\u00e1ln\u00ed tajemn\u00edk NATO Mark Rutte ned\u00e1vno p\u0159iznal:\u00a0<strong>Rusko vyrob\u00ed za t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce v\u00edce munice ne\u017e cel\u00e9 NATO za rok<\/strong>\u00a0. Nen\u00ed tedy divu, \u017ee se Ukrajina mus\u00ed uch\u00fdlit k guerillov\u00e9 taktice \u2013 co\u017e obvykle d\u011blaj\u00ed jen materi\u00e1ln\u011b m\u00e9n\u011bcenn\u00ed rebelov\u00e9.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A te\u010f? Washingtonsk\u00fd \u201epl\u00e1n B\u201c<\/h3>\n<p>Co tedy d\u011blat, kdy\u017e nem\u016f\u017eete splnit sv\u00e9 sliby? Washington se uchyluje k osv\u011bd\u010den\u00e9 taktice:\u00a0<strong>p\u0159ezna\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong>\u00a0. Z poru\u0161en\u00e9ho slibu se st\u00e1v\u00e1 \u201eAmerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c \u2013 zat\u00edmco spojenci nesou n\u00e1klady.<\/p>\n<p>Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va kongresu doporu\u010duje pr\u00e1v\u011b toto:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>USA si ponech\u00e1vaj\u00ed kontrolu nad v\u0161emi ponorkami,<\/strong>\u00a0ale rozm\u00edst\u00ed je v Austr\u00e1lii.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Austr\u00e1lie plat\u00ed<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 za drony, st\u0159ely s plochou dr\u00e1hou letu, bombard\u00e9ry B-21 a dal\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9my dlouh\u00e9ho doletu.<\/li>\n<li>Ty pak budou prov\u00e1d\u011bt vojensk\u00e9 mise \u201e\u00a0<strong>pro Austr\u00e1lii a USA<\/strong>\u00a0\u201c.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>V\u00fdsledek:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Austr\u00e1lie nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou kontrolu nad ponorkami um\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdmi ve sv\u00e9 zemi.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Investuje miliardy do americk\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 techniky, kter\u00e1\u00a0<strong>neslou\u017e\u00ed k obran\u011b Austr\u00e1lie,<\/strong>\u00a0ale k prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f.<\/li>\n<li>Pln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 \u00fakoly\u00a0<strong>pro USA<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 co\u017e je u vojensk\u00fdch alianc\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b neobvykl\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Austr\u00e1lie se v podstat\u011b st\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0<strong>platebn\u00ed z\u00e1kladnou americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy<\/strong>\u00a0bez vlastn\u00ed opera\u010dn\u00ed kontroly.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Austr\u00e1lie v odporu: B\u00fdval\u00ed vysoce postaven\u00ed politici bij\u00ed na poplach<\/h3>\n<p>AUKUS byl u\u017e tak kontroverzn\u00ed \u2013 ale te\u010f se jeho fas\u00e1da hrout\u00ed.<br \/>\nB\u00fdval\u00ed austral\u0161t\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci se vyjad\u0159uj\u00ed neobvykle ost\u0159e:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Malcolm Turnbull (premi\u00e9r 2015\u20132018):<\/strong>\u00a0\u201eJak si n\u011bkdo mohl myslet, \u017ee je to chytr\u00e1 dohoda, mi nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9.\u201c<\/li>\n<li><strong>Paul Keating (premi\u00e9r 1991\u20131996):<\/strong>\u00a0ozna\u010dil AUKUS za \u201enejhor\u0161\u00ed dohodu v historii\u201c a varoval, \u017ee by mohla Austr\u00e1lii prom\u011bnit v \u201e51. st\u00e1t USA\u201c.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Gareth Evans (b\u00fdval\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed):<\/strong>\u00a0hovo\u0159il o \u201ejednom z nejhor\u0161\u00edch rozhodnut\u00ed v oblasti obrany a zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky v\u0161ech dob\u201c.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bob Carr (tak\u00e9 b\u00fdval\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed):<\/strong>\u00a0nazval AUKUS \u201evo\u0148av\u00fdm, metanem zabalen\u00fdm nesmyslem\u201c.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A to v\u0161e je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e bylo ozn\u00e1meno, \u017ee\u00a0<strong>Austr\u00e1lie pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nikdy nedostane jedinou ponorku<\/strong>\u00a0.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AUKUS \u2013 lekce o z\u00e1vislosti na imp\u00e9riu<\/h3>\n<p>A\u0165 u\u017e bude AUKUS ukon\u010den, nebo ne, \u0161koda je nap\u00e1ch\u00e1na. Austr\u00e1lie investovala miliardy, jen aby si nyn\u00ed uv\u011bdomila, \u017ee Washington nedok\u00e1\u017ee splnit sv\u00e9 c\u00edle.<\/p>\n<p>Stejn\u011b jako u NATO je jasn\u00e9,\u00a0<strong>\u017ee spol\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed se na USA je strategicky riskantn\u00ed.<\/strong>\u00a0\u201eSpojenci\u201c nesou n\u00e1klady a z\u00e1vislost \u2013 zat\u00edmco ve Washingtonu existuje mezera mezi plan\u00fdm slibem a pr\u016fmyslovou realitou.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Z\u00e1v\u011br:<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Konec americk\u00e9 hegemonie nep\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed s ranou, ale s k\u0148u\u010den\u00edm rozbit\u00fdch slib\u016f.<\/strong><br \/>\nAUKUS nen\u00ed jen propad\u00e1kem zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky \u2013 je symbolem \u00fapadku americk\u00e9 projekce moci. A ho\u0159k\u00e9ho uv\u011bdom\u011bn\u00ed si, \u017ee ti, kdo se spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na Washington, nakonec za to zaplat\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/arnaudbertrand.substack.com\/p\/is-aukus-being-killed-off?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=4076906&amp;post_id=165765963&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=false&amp;r=pf6gr&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sotva skon\u010dily ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 rozhovory mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou v Lond\u00fdn\u011b, Pentagon ozn\u00e1mil p\u0159ezkum, zda by&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81463,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1222,30,39],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81462"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81462\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81463"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}