{"id":81340,"date":"2025-06-16T00:19:24","date_gmt":"2025-06-15T22:19:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81340"},"modified":"2025-06-15T14:50:06","modified_gmt":"2025-06-15T12:50:06","slug":"zbynek-fiala-izraelsky-utok-muze-mit-opacny-efekt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/16\/zbynek-fiala-izraelsky-utok-muze-mit-opacny-efekt\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt opa\u010dn\u00fd efekt"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 technologie pro obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu jsou nepo\u0161kozeny a ura\u017een\u00fd Teher\u00e1n m\u016f\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161it snahu o dokon\u010den\u00ed jadern\u00e9 bomby.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bezprecedentn\u00ed izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed i vedouc\u00ed osobnosti, kter\u00e9 jsou s\u00a0nimi spojeny, zdaleka nebyl tak \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd, za co se vyd\u00e1val. Ono ani nejde ze vzduchu zni\u010dit centrifugy a dal\u0161\u00ed provozy, kter\u00e9 jsou hluboko v\u00a0podzem\u00ed. Poda\u0159ilo se v\u0161ak vypustit d\u017eina z\u00a0lahve, kter\u00fd se bude t\u011b\u017eko vracet zp\u011bt.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0izraelsk\u00e9m tisku se rozeb\u011bhla polemika o mo\u017en\u00fdch d\u016fsledc\u00edch t\u00e9to \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 operace. Provl\u00e1dn\u00ed Jeruzalem Post si libuje nad kvalitou zpravodajsk\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce izraelsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb a dlouhodob\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edprav. Av\u0161ak opozi\u010dn\u00ed Haaretz v\u00a0redak\u010dn\u00edm \u00favodn\u00edku varuje, aby se konflikt s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem nezm\u011bnil v\u00a0\u201eni\u010divou opot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lku\u201c, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt nad s\u00edly Izraele. Jak zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, premi\u00e9ru Benjaminu Netanjahovi se p\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny m\u00e1lem rozpadla vl\u00e1da, tak\u017ee \u201evede velkou bitvu v\u00a0zahrani\u010d\u00ed v\u00a0dob\u011b, kdy se jeho dom\u00e1c\u00ed legitimita rozpad\u00e1.\u201c<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/opinion\/editorial\/2025-06-15\/ty-article-opinion\/israel-must-avoid-an-all-out-destructive-war-of-attrition-with-iran\/00000197-725e-da16-ad9f-f2fea59a0000<\/a><\/p>\n

Wall Street Journal m\u00e1 zpr\u00e1vu od \u201eosoby zasv\u011bcen\u00e9 do operace\u201c, \u017ee Mossad vyv\u00edjel dlouhodobou aktivitu v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu, kter\u00e1 zahrnovala nejen lokalizaci c\u00edl\u016f \u00fatoku v\u010detn\u011b bydli\u0161\u0165 v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch osobnost\u00ed v\u00a0Teher\u00e1nu, ale tak\u00e9 propa\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed dron\u016f a \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch st\u0159el na \u00fazem\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu, kter\u00e9 pak ty \u00fatoky provedly.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.pressreader.com\/usa\/the-wall-street-journal\/20250614\/page\/6<\/a><\/p>\n

Je tu jasn\u00e1 shoda s postupem, jak\u00fdm ukrajinsk\u00e9 tajn\u00e9 slu\u017eby za\u00fato\u010dily na leti\u0161t\u011b rusk\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch sil. Jestli tohle je obraz p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed v\u00e1lky, tak n\u00e1m budou americk\u00e9 st\u00edha\u010dky a n\u011bmeck\u00e9 tanky platn\u00e9 jako mrtv\u00e9mu zimn\u00edk.<\/p>\n

Jak u\u017e jsme uvedli, izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok zat\u00edm nijak nepo\u0161kodil \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 technologie pro obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu, kter\u00e9 jsou hluboko v\u00a0podzem\u00ed, a nebylo to ani v\u00a0jeho sil\u00e1ch. Mohly b\u00fdt zni\u010deny pomocn\u00e9 provozy, energetick\u00e9 zdroje, vzduchotechnika, laborato\u0159e, ale ty lze rychle nahradit, a nov\u00e9 b\u00fdv\u00e1 obvykle lep\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jan Campbell na na\u0161ich str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch s\u00e1z\u00ed za rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed. Soud\u00ed, \u017ee by to bylo nejlep\u0161\u00ed cestou, jak u\u010dinit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 atomovky, na kter\u00fdch se tak piln\u011b pracuje, zbyte\u010dn\u00fdmi. P\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed je tu otcem my\u0161lenky\u2026<\/p>\n

https:\/\/vasevec.parlamentnilisty.cz\/komentare\/jan-campbell-vyjimecna-sance<\/a><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o \u00edr\u00e1nskou odvetu, jsou tu dv\u011b z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky, vzd\u00e1lenost, kter\u00e1 vylu\u010duje n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e rakety a drony, a kvalitn\u00ed izraelsk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana. Poukazuje na to ve Foreign Affairs b\u00fdval\u00fd vojensk\u00fd analytik CIA Kenneth Pollack. P\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 propad\u00e1k s\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nskou odvetou za lo\u0148sk\u00e9 izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky z\u00a0dubna a \u0159\u00edjna, ze kter\u00fdch se v\u0161ak \u00cdr\u00e1n pou\u010dil a sv\u00e9 zbran\u011b zdokonalil. Vid\u00edme to ostatn\u011b na ukrajinsk\u00e9m v\u00e1l\u010di\u0161ti, kde Rusko \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 drony.<\/p>\n

Celkov\u00fd vztah \u00cdr\u00e1nu s\u00a0Ruskem mezit\u00edm zna\u010dn\u011b pos\u00edlil. Kr\u00e1tce p\u0159ed izraelsk\u00fdm \u00fatokem ob\u011b zem\u011b uzav\u0159ely smlouvu o strategick\u00e9m partnerstv\u00ed. Jej\u00ed efekt v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli p\u0159edstavuje velkou nezn\u00e1mou. O p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 pomoci tam nen\u00ed \u0159e\u010di, ale Pollack se odvol\u00e1v\u00e1 na zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee Rusko u\u017e se sta\u010dilo pod\u00edlet na zlep\u0161en\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinnosti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n

(Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladim\u00edr Putin te\u010f kontaktoval ob\u011b v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00ed strany a vyv\u00edj\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed \u2013 jak \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u2013 o deeskalaci konfliktu.)<\/p>\n

Pollack nemysl\u00ed, \u017ee by dal\u0161\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 a dronov\u00e9 \u00fatoky mohly zp\u016fsobit Izraeli v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161kodu, ale upozor\u0148uje na rostouc\u00ed schopnosti Ir\u00e1nu v\u00e9st kybernetickou v\u00e1lku nap\u0159\u00edklad \u00fatoky na izraelskou infrastrukturu. \u00cdr\u00e1n tak\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee aktivovat ozbrojen\u00e9 skupiny v\u00a0zahrani\u010d\u00ed, se kter\u00fdmi dlouhodob\u011b spolupracuje. Pokud se n\u011bco dlouhodob\u011b pl\u00e1novalo, je te\u010f p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost to spustit, poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 b\u00fdval\u00fd analytik CIA.<\/p>\n

A kdyby do\u0161lo i na uzav\u0159en\u00ed Horm\u00fazsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u017einy pro export ropy? Pak by se podle Pollacka stal z\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu nep\u0159\u00edtel v\u0161ech.<\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm rizikem podle n\u011bj tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 to dlouhodob\u00e9, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n bude povzbuzen k\u00a0urychlen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edprav jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b:<\/p>\n

\u201eIzrael (a americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da) si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee v\u011bd\u00ed v\u0161e o kask\u00e1d\u00e1ch \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch funk\u010dn\u00edch centrifug \/<\/em>na obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu\/, ale Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed agentura pro jadernou energii soud\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n vybudoval mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed po\u010det centrifug, o jejich\u017e um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed nen\u00ed nic zn\u00e1mo. I kdy\u017e te\u010f nejsou zapojeny do b\u011b\u017e\u00edc\u00edch kask\u00e1d, mohou b\u00fdt do nich snadno integrov\u00e1ny, a \u00cdr\u00e1n vyr\u00e1b\u00ed st\u00e1le dal\u0161\u00ed.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Ocitli jsme se v\u00a0situaci Hlavy XXII, kdy nejlep\u0161\u00edm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm by byla\u00a0\u201eagres\u00edvn\u00ed snaha o novou jadernou dohodu s\u00a0Teher\u00e1nem, ale o tu se m\u00e1me pokou\u0161et ve chv\u00edli, kdy na tom m\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1n, ura\u017een\u00fd izraelsk\u00fdm \u00fatokem, ten nejmen\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1jem,\u201c<\/em>\u00a0uzav\u00edr\u00e1 Pollack.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/israel\/real-threat-iran-tehran-most-dangerous-option-responding-israel<\/a><\/p>\n

Izrael si na vra\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zvykl, tak\u017ee mu jemnosti unikaj\u00ed. Jeho racionalita je oslabena ideologick\u00fdm vid\u011bn\u00edm n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, co\u017e plat\u00ed o \u00cdr\u00e1nu tak\u00e9. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed je proto z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na patronech obou zem\u00ed, USA a Rusku. Ale nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed \u010dekejme na Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e1 p\u0159ijde o zahrani\u010dn\u00ed pozornost i zbran\u011b.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 technologie pro obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu jsou nepo\u0161kozeny a ura\u017een\u00fd Teher\u00e1n m\u016f\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161it snahu o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":20751,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,38,107,3179,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81340"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81340"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81340\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20751"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}