{"id":81309,"date":"2025-06-16T00:13:28","date_gmt":"2025-06-15T22:13:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81309"},"modified":"2025-06-15T13:37:07","modified_gmt":"2025-06-15T11:37:07","slug":"thomas-roper-zablokuje-iran-hormuzsky-pruliv","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/16\/thomas-roper-zablokuje-iran-hormuzsky-pruliv\/","title":{"rendered":"Thomas R\u00f6per: Zablokuje \u00cdr\u00e1n Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Zpr\u00e1vy z \u00cdr\u00e1nu nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee zva\u017euje blok\u00e1du Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. To by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159erostlo ve velkou v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je \u00fa\u017eina spojuj\u00edc\u00ed Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv s Om\u00e1nsk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem, Arabsk\u00fdm mo\u0159em a Indick\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem na v\u00fdchod\u011b. Proch\u00e1z\u00ed j\u00edm dvacet procent sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy a 30 procent sv\u011btov\u00e9ho zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu (LNG). To by ovlivnilo ropu a plyn z \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Ir\u00e1ku a n\u011bkter\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. V neju\u017e\u0161\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b, mezi protilehl\u00fdmi pevninsk\u00fdmi pob\u0159e\u017e\u00edmi \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Om\u00e1nu, je pr\u016fliv \u0161irok\u00fd 55 kilometr\u016f (30 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch mil). Mezi ostrovy Larak (\u00cdr\u00e1n) a Sal\u00e1ma (Om\u00e1n) je neju\u017e\u0161\u00ed m\u00edsto \u0161irok\u00e9 pouze asi 38 kilometr\u016f (20 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch mil).<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem desetilet\u00ed konfliktu mezi Z\u00e1padem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem bylo jedn\u00edm z d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d Z\u00e1pad nikdy nedovolil, aby se konflikt roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il do tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky, jist\u011b to, \u017ee by pro \u00cdr\u00e1n nep\u0159edstavovalo probl\u00e9m blokovat pr\u016fliv. Toho by bylo snadn\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout pomoc\u00ed protilodn\u00edch min, kter\u00e9 lze na jejich pozice dopravit i pomoc\u00ed pohonn\u00fdch hmot podobn\u00fdch torp\u00e9d\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fsledky pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku by v\u0161ak byly hrozn\u00e9, kdyby selhalo 20 procent dod\u00e1vek ropy a 30 procent dod\u00e1vek LNG, proto\u017ee by ceny energi\u00ed explodovaly.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00edky frakov\u00e1n\u00ed se USA staly nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm producentem ropy a plynu a USA by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b mohly absorbovat explozi glob\u00e1ln\u00edch cen energi\u00ed doma sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm exportu a z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00edm nejprve dom\u00e1c\u00edho trhu (\u201eAmerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c).<\/span><\/p>\n

Odborn\u00edci varuj\u00ed, \u017ee blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu by mohla zp\u016fsobit prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen ropy a\u017e na 130 dolar\u016f za barel, co\u017e by podn\u00edtilo glob\u00e1ln\u00ed inflaci a oslabilo glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku. Ovlivn\u011bny by byly nejen dod\u00e1vky ropy, ale tak\u00e9 v\u00fdvoz zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu (LNG), kter\u00fd je st\u00e1le d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm zdrojem energie, zejm\u00e9na pro EU.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fsledky blok\u00e1dy pr\u016flivu by proto pro Evropu byly dvojn\u00e1sobn\u011b hrozn\u00e9, proto\u017ee EU odm\u00edt\u00e1 ruskou ropu a plyn a blok\u00e1da by naru\u0161ila dod\u00e1vky z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a USA by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b omezily sv\u016fj v\u00fdvoz (nap\u0159\u00edklad LNG). Ekonomick\u00fd \u0161ok, kter\u00fd by n\u00e1sledoval po blok\u00e1d\u011b Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b spustil v Evrop\u011b skute\u010dnou energetickou krizi \u2013 se v\u0161emi souvisej\u00edc\u00edmi d\u016fsledky pro pr\u016fmysl a ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zablokuje \u00cdr\u00e1n Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Esmail Kosari, \u010dlen V\u00fdboru pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost a zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho parlamentu, uvedl, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n zva\u017euje uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu po izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd port\u00e1l Rokna ho\u00a0<\/span>citoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eMo\u017enost uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu se v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b zva\u017euje a \u00cdr\u00e1n bez v\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed u\u010din\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou nyn\u00ed je, jak v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 tato hrozba je, proto\u017ee politick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky by byly pro \u00cdr\u00e1n tak\u00e9 extr\u00e9mn\u011b fat\u00e1ln\u00ed, jeliko\u017e by se nakonec od\u0159\u00edzl od sv\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z prodeje ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty<\/span><\/h3>\n

Pot\u00e9, co se \u00cdr\u00e1n a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie v posledn\u00edch letech op\u011bt sbl\u00ed\u017eily, by \u00cdr\u00e1n riskoval sv\u00e9 vztahy se Sa\u00fady, proto\u017ee Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie by byla tak\u00e9 v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zasa\u017eena blok\u00e1dou Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. Zda by v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pro Sa\u00fady byla d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed solidarita mezi muslimy proti Izraeli, nebo jejich vlastn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed situace, je opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, ale Netanjahuova vyhlazovac\u00ed v\u00e1lka proti Palestinc\u016fm uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed solidarita mezi muslimy je mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u00e1, ne\u017e by se dalo p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat p\u0159ed 7. \u0159\u00edjnem 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1sti vod Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu pat\u0159\u00ed Om\u00e1nu, musel by Om\u00e1n souhlasit s jeho uzav\u0159en\u00edm. V opa\u010dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by \u00cdr\u00e1n musel naru\u0161it om\u00e1nsk\u00e9 teritori\u00e1ln\u00ed vody, co\u017e by konflikt vyhrotilo a Om\u00e1n by to mohl klasifikovat jako v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd akt.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebude m\u00edt v tomto konfliktu \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z\u00e1jem na tom, aby si znep\u0159\u00e1telil arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, a proto je z tohoto hlediska uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u010c\u00edna je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm odb\u011bratelem \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy a od n\u00e1kupu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy ji neodradily ani hrozby americk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna ji\u017e signalizovala, \u017ee nebude tolerovat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159epravy ropy z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, a\u010dkoliv je ot\u00e1zkou, co p\u0159esn\u011b by tato formulace v praxi znamenala. Lze v\u0161ak p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee Peking vyu\u017eije sv\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho vlivu k tomu, aby \u00cdr\u00e1nu zabr\u00e1nil v blok\u00e1d\u011b Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

I z tohoto hlediska je blok\u00e1da pr\u016flivu nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co d\u011bl\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1n?<\/span><\/h3>\n

I kdy\u017e tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu se zd\u00e1 nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1, nemus\u00ed to tak nutn\u011b b\u00fdt. Pokud se \u00cdr\u00e1n domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee v konfliktu je v s\u00e1zce jeho samotn\u00e9 p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed a \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed st\u00e1ty jsou de facto agresivn\u00ed, proto\u017ee podporuj\u00ed Izrael, pak by se \u00cdr\u00e1n mohl st\u00e1t velmi nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdm, jako zran\u011bn\u00e9 zv\u00ed\u0159e, a d\u016fsledky blok\u00e1dy by pro \u00cdr\u00e1n nemusely b\u00fdt d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fd\u0161e jsem zm\u00ednil, \u017ee takov\u00e1 blok\u00e1da by tak\u00e9 od\u0159\u00edzla \u00cdr\u00e1n od p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z prodeje ropy. Ale jak moc by to \u00cdr\u00e1nu vadilo, kdyby nap\u0159\u00edklad Izrael za\u010dal bombardovat \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy, tak\u017ee by \u00cdr\u00e1n stejn\u011b u\u017e nemohl ropu vyv\u00e1\u017eet?<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n nav\u00edc ji\u017e pohrozil \u00fatokem na vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lod\u011b v oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, kter\u00e9 pat\u0159\u00ed jak\u00e9koli zemi, je\u017e podporuje Izrael. Varov\u00e1n\u00ed je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b konkr\u00e9tn\u011b nam\u00ed\u0159eno proti USA, Francii a Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii, kter\u00e9 \u00fadajn\u011b pomohly sest\u0159elit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety nad Izraelem pomoc\u00ed st\u00edha\u010dek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud hn\u011bv a zoufalstv\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed vzrostou natolik, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n toto varov\u00e1n\u00ed uvede do praxe a za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lod\u011b zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch zem\u00ed, pak by se blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu mohla pro \u00cdr\u00e1n st\u00e1t dokonce vojenskou nutnost\u00ed, aby uzav\u0159el Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lod\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, pokud by \u00cdr\u00e1n vn\u00edmal tuto v\u00e1lku jako skute\u010dn\u011b existencion\u00e1ln\u00ed a do\u0161el k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee u\u017e nem\u00e1 co ztratit, mohl by ze zoufalstv\u00ed odhodit v\u0161echny z\u00e1brany a zablokovat Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. Blok\u00e1da by byla jasn\u00fdm znamen\u00edm, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n bojuje o svou existenci, a v\u00e1lka by se mohla odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem vyhrotit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co kdy\u017e\u2026?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b se zamysleme nad mo\u017en\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky takov\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy. Jak ji\u017e bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno, pro EU by to bylo katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed. O tom nemus\u00edme dlouze hovo\u0159it.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA by na druhou stranu zpo\u010d\u00e1tku profitovaly, proto\u017ee by p\u0159irozen\u011b dost\u00e1valy mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny za svou ropu a plyn, zat\u00edmco jejich ekonomi\u010dt\u00ed konkurenti \u010c\u00edna a EU by byli oslabeni.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko by z vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cen ropy v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu tak\u00e9 profitovalo, zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee 18. sank\u010dn\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dek EU, kter\u00fdm se EU sna\u017e\u00ed d\u00e1le sn\u00ed\u017eit sv\u016fj ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd \u201estrop cen ropy\u201c, by tak byl zneplatn\u011bn je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed jeho p\u0159ijet\u00edm. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika ropu a plyn pot\u0159ebuje a pokud se nab\u00eddky z\u00fa\u017e\u00ed, nikdo na sv\u011bt\u011b nebude m\u00edt o sankce EU z\u00e1jem, jak ji\u017e uk\u00e1zal p\u0159edchoz\u00ed \u201estrop cen ropy\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro USA, Rusko a v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed v\u00fdvozce ropy by v\u0161ak cenov\u00fd \u0161ok ropy tvrd\u011b zas\u00e1hl glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku, co\u017e by n\u00e1sledn\u011b rychle sn\u00ed\u017eilo popt\u00e1vku po rop\u011b. Proto se OPEC sna\u017e\u00ed udr\u017eovat ceny ropy stabiln\u00ed, proto\u017ee klesaj\u00edc\u00ed ceny ropy znamenaj\u00ed pro OPEC ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy, zat\u00edmco rostouc\u00ed ceny ropy znamenaj\u00ed slab\u0161\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku, a t\u00edm i ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po rop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Popravd\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, ani v\u00fdvozci ropy by nebyli z rostouc\u00edch cen ropy nad\u0161en\u00ed, sp\u00ed\u0161e naopak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mimochodem, pro \u010c\u00ednu by to mohlo b\u00fdt obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b problematick\u00e9, proto\u017ee by to vy\u017eadovalo, aby \u010c\u00edna nahradila sv\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky ropy z \u00cdr\u00e1nu, co\u017e v situaci glob\u00e1ln\u00edho nedostatku ropy jist\u011b nebude snadn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zpr\u00e1vy z \u00cdr\u00e1nu nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee zva\u017euje blok\u00e1du Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. To by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159erostlo ve velkou…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81310,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,569,6382,38],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81309"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81309\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}