{"id":81217,"date":"2025-06-14T00:29:25","date_gmt":"2025-06-13T22:29:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81217"},"modified":"2025-06-13T21:10:06","modified_gmt":"2025-06-13T19:10:06","slug":"velka-valka-na-blizkem-vychode-zelenskij-utrpel-porazku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/14\/velka-valka-na-blizkem-vychode-zelenskij-utrpel-porazku\/","title":{"rendered":"Velk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b: Zelenskij utrp\u011bl por\u00e1\u017eku"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"lead\"><strong>Nic neprozrad\u00edm, kdy\u017e \u0159eknu, \u017ee v\u0161echny \u010diny, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1vaj\u00ed ve sv\u011btov\u00e9 politice, maj\u00ed d\u016fsledky. Viditeln\u00e9 i nepost\u0159ehnuteln\u00e9, z\u0159ejm\u00e9 i skryt\u00e9 pod silnou vrstvou hlasit\u00fdch politick\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Vztahy mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty ohledn\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu maj\u00ed dlouhou historii. Nov\u00e1 vlna nap\u011bt\u00ed ohledn\u011b v\u00fdvoje jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nem za\u010dala na za\u010d\u00e1tku 21. stolet\u00ed. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty obvinily \u00cdr\u00e1n z tajn\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Po \u010detn\u00fdch a nej\u010dast\u011bji pr\u00e1zdn\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch se v\u011bci kone\u010dn\u011b pohnuly kup\u0159edu a v roce 2015 \u00cdr\u00e1n a dan\u00e9 zem\u011b (USA, Francie, Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie, N\u011bmecko, \u010c\u00edna a Rusko) dos\u00e1hly dohody o \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m programu v\u00fdm\u011bnou za zru\u0161en\u00ed sankc\u00ed v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Hned je t\u0159eba \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee po v\u0161echny ty roky se za vyjednava\u010di, respektive USA, ty\u010dil Izrael. Zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 se jedn\u00e1n\u00ed (alespo\u0148) otev\u0159en\u011b ne\u00fa\u010dastnila, ale m\u011bla velk\u00fd z\u00e1jem na jejich krachu.<\/p>\n<p>Pro\u010d? Proto\u017ee Izrael a jeho veden\u00ed nikdy nev\u011b\u0159ili v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd \u201em\u00edrov\u00fd atom\u201c. A m\u011bli k tomu dostatek d\u016fvod\u016f. Izrael je ale sv\u011btov\u00e9mu spole\u010denstv\u00ed p\u0159edkl\u00e1dal marn\u011b \u2013 odh\u00e1n\u011bli je jako otravnou mouchu. V\u0161ichni moc dob\u0159e v\u011bd\u011bli, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n vyv\u00edj\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, ale \u201evelc\u00ed chlapi\u201c si dal\u0161\u00ed konfrontaci na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b nep\u0159\u00e1li. A pokud pro v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed zem\u011b nebyla ot\u00e1zka vytvo\u0159en\u00ed vojensk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu \u00cdr\u00e1nem prvo\u0159adou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, pak pro Izrael, zemi s populac\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 10 milion\u016f, je dr\u017een\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telskou zem\u00ed s populac\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 milion\u016f jako smrt.<\/p>\n<p>Poprv\u00e9, kdy\u017e se\u00a0<strong>Donald Trump<\/strong>\u00a0dostal k moci, poru\u0161il dohody s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Komu t\u00edm ubl\u00ed\u017eil? T\u011b\u017eko \u0159\u00edct. Ale poru\u0161en\u00ed dohody vedlo k urychlen\u00ed a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed prac\u00ed na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee Trump zp\u016fsobil Izraeli pom\u011brn\u011b dost \u0161kody (to je k m\u00e9 fr\u00e1zi o neviditeln\u00fdch d\u016fsledc\u00edch). Kdy\u017e znovu p\u0159i\u0161el do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu, Trump se p\u0159esto rozhodl s \u00cdr\u00e1nem vyjedn\u00e1vat a zd\u00e1lo se, \u017ee se jim da\u0159\u00ed. Ale najednou nastal prudk\u00fd obrat. Hlavn\u00edmi p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekami jsou dv\u011b ot\u00e1zky:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>osud \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho programu obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu,<\/li>\n<li>osud ji\u017e nahromad\u011bn\u00e9ho vysoce obohacen\u00e9ho uranu.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A pak tu bylo usnesen\u00ed Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed agentury pro atomovou energii (MAAE), \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n nepln\u00ed sv\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky v oblasti ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Toto usnesen\u00ed n\u00e1sledovalo po d\u016frazn\u00fdch varov\u00e1n\u00edch \u0161\u00e9fa MAAE za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto t\u00fddne.\u00a0<strong>Rafael Mariano Grossi<\/strong>\u00a0uvedl, \u017ee inspekto\u0159i neprok\u00e1zali, zda je \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program \u010dist\u011b m\u00edrov\u00fd, jak je stanoveno v jadern\u00e9 dohod\u011b z roku 2015.<\/p>\n<p>Za t\u011bchto podm\u00ednek se Izrael rozhodl za\u00fato\u010dit na \u00cdr\u00e1n, respektive zah\u00e1jit v\u00e1lku, prvn\u00ed a jedinou sv\u00e9ho druhu: strany na sebe budou st\u0159\u00edlet, ale k fyzick\u00e9mu st\u0159etu arm\u00e1d s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed nedojde.<\/p>\n<p>Nyn\u00ed k tomu z\u0159ejm\u00e9mu i m\u00e9n\u011b z\u0159ejm\u00e9mu. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee Izrael zni\u010d\u00ed (ji\u017e zni\u010dil) pom\u011brn\u011b velkou \u010d\u00e1st \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho potenci\u00e1lu. Byli zni\u010deni vysoc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9, ti, kte\u0159\u00ed vyv\u00edjeli a implementovali vojenskou a jadernou doktr\u00ednu zem\u011b. S takov\u00fdm mno\u017estv\u00edm raket a bomb jsou ztr\u00e1ty mezi civiln\u00edm obyvatelstvem \u00cdr\u00e1nu minim\u00e1ln\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Na druhou stranu: mus\u00edte b\u00fdt bl\u00e1zen, abyste m\u011bli v\u00e1lku v Gaze, rukojm\u00ed, sotva zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e9 ost\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ka\u017edodenn\u00ed ost\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f, probl\u00e9my v S\u00fdrii a Palestinsk\u00e9 samospr\u00e1v\u011b, abyste mohli za\u010d\u00edt novou v\u00e1lku s dob\u0159e vyzbrojen\u00fdm a hlavn\u011b siln\u011b motivovan\u00fdm \u00cdr\u00e1nem.\u00a0<strong>Bibi<\/strong>\u00a0( slangov\u00e9 jm\u00e9no\u00a0<strong>Netanjahua<\/strong>\u00a0) prom\u011bnil Izrael v ostrov, zahnal obyvatelstvo do protileteck\u00fdch kryt\u016f, vypr\u00e1zdnil obchody, co\u017e po n\u011bjak\u00e9 dob\u011b povede k nedostatku potravin v zemi \u2013 obloha nad Izraelem je zcela uzav\u0159ena. A nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana zem\u011b odol\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00edm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm n\u00e1let\u016fm. Zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e vezmeme v \u00favahu, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b a dokonce i Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty odm\u00edtly Izraeli pomoci.<\/p>\n<p>Ale to v\u0161echno jsou z\u0159ejm\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. A zde jsou n\u011bkter\u00e9, kter\u00e9 v\u016fbec z\u0159ejm\u00e9 nejsou. Ceny ropy za\u010daly r\u016fst, a to pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b. A jak se uk\u00e1zalo, bylo to z\u0159ejm\u00e9 \u2013 to je dobr\u00e9 pro Rusko. V\u0161ichni analytici ropn\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu a ekonomiky to \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed jedn\u00edm hlasem. Sv\u011btov\u00e9 ceny ropy vykazuj\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jednodenn\u00ed procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst v posledn\u00edch letech \u2013 uprost\u0159ed obav, \u017ee konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by mohl v\u00e9st k v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9mu naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek energie. Informovaly o tom 13. \u010dervna agentury CNN a Reuters.<\/p>\n<p>Za druh\u00e9, a tak\u00e9 ne p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 z\u0159ejm\u00e9: kdo z tohoto konfliktu prohraje? Ukrajina. A to ve dvou ohledech. Nyn\u00ed se pozornost Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f p\u0159irozen\u011b p\u0159esune na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod a ukrajinsk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my se posunou na t\u0159et\u00ed nebo \u010dtvrt\u00e9 m\u00edsto, nikoli na druh\u00e9. Izrael nav\u00edc m\u016f\u017ee platit za z\u00e1padn\u00ed zbran\u011b pen\u011bzi, nikoli m\u00fdtick\u00fdmi p\u016fj\u010dkami. A je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee \u201eprodejci smrti\u201c tohle preferuj\u00ed.\u00a0<strong>Zelenskyj<\/strong>\u00a0by logicky m\u011bl Izrael podporovat, ale boj\u00ed se to ud\u011blat, proto\u017ee jeho evrop\u0161t\u00ed p\u00e1ni se proti izraelsk\u00fdm krok\u016fm ozvali. Expirace \u2013 v zugzwangu \u2013 je v \u0161achu situace, kdy jak\u00fdkoli tah hr\u00e1\u010de zhor\u0161uje jeho pozici.<\/p>\n<p>A pokud mluv\u00edme o d\u016fsledc\u00edch, kter\u00e9 nejsou pro v\u011bt\u0161inu neob\u010dan\u016f Izraele v\u016fbec z\u0159ejm\u00e9, pak je Netanjahu doma, v Izraeli, ve velmi \u0161patn\u00e9 situaci. Vl\u00e1da je na pokraji kolapsu, dva minist\u0159i vl\u00e1dy se dostali pod americk\u00e9 sankce, rukojm\u00ed nebyli vr\u00e1ceni a to vede k ka\u017edodenn\u00edm protest\u016fm \u010d\u00e1sti arm\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 se odm\u00edt\u00e1 vr\u00e1tit do Gazy a v\u016fbec neakceptuje vl\u00e1dn\u00ed politiku. S\u00e1m Netanjahu v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b kolapsu vl\u00e1dy rezignuje, a proto bude v procesu plnohodnotn\u00fdm ob\u017ealovan\u00fdm.<\/p>\n<p>A v\u0161echny tyto nen\u00e1padn\u00e9 d\u016fsledky jsou, p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, jedny z p\u0159edpoklad\u016f pro pl\u00e1novan\u00fd rozhovor mezi rusk\u00fdm prezidentem\u00a0<strong>Vladimirem Putinem<\/strong>\u00a0a izraelsk\u00fdm premi\u00e9rem Benjaminem Netanjahuem. Hlavn\u00edm poselstv\u00edm v\u0161ak samoz\u0159ejm\u011b bude Putinova zcela p\u0159irozen\u00e1 lidsk\u00e1 a politick\u00e1 touha pomoci sv\u00e9mu spojenci, \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nic neprozrad\u00edm, kdy\u017e \u0159eknu, \u017ee v\u0161echny \u010diny, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1vaj\u00ed ve sv\u011btov\u00e9 politice,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81218,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,40,1000],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81217"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81217"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81217\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81218"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}