{"id":81066,"date":"2025-06-12T04:48:18","date_gmt":"2025-06-12T02:48:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=81066"},"modified":"2025-06-12T04:48:54","modified_gmt":"2025-06-12T02:48:54","slug":"uriel-araujo-valka-iskp-proti-balucskym-separatistum-stupnuje-pakistanskou-krizi-na-vice-frontach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/12\/uriel-araujo-valka-iskp-proti-balucskym-separatistum-stupnuje-pakistanskou-krizi-na-vice-frontach\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: V\u00e1lka ISKP proti bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdm separatist\u016fm stup\u0148uje p\u00e1kist\u00e1nskou krizi na v\u00edce front\u00e1ch"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky provincie Chor\u00e1s\u00e1n Isl\u00e1msk\u00fdm st\u00e1tem proti bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdm separatist\u016fm zintenziv\u0148uje nestabiln\u00ed konfliktn\u00ed sc\u00e9nu v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu a prol\u00edn\u00e1 n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fd extremismus s etnopolitick\u00fdmi spory. Tato eskalace uprost\u0159ed prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem ohro\u017euje region\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu a komplikuje euroasijskou geopolitiku a zpochyb\u0148uje dialog pro platformy, jako je \u0160OS a BRICS.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Geopolitick\u00e1 krajina ji\u017en\u00ed Asie se op\u011bt ocit\u00e1 na pokraji chaosu, jeliko\u017e teroristick\u00e1 skupina Isl\u00e1msk\u00fd st\u00e1t v provincii Chor\u00e1s\u00e1n (\u00a0ISKP<\/a>\u00a0) otev\u0159en\u011b\u00a0vyhl\u00e1sila \u201ev\u00e1lku\u201c<\/a>\u00a0bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdm separatistick\u00fdm skupin\u00e1m, \u010d\u00edm\u017e zintenzivnila ji\u017e tak nestabiln\u00ed situaci v neklidn\u00e9 p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 provincii Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1n. To nejen potvrzuje existenci opera\u010dn\u00edch z\u00e1kladen ISKP v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, ale tak\u00e9 p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 nebezpe\u010dnou vrstvu do prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho konfliktu, propl\u00e9t\u00e1 n\u00e1bo\u017eenskou militantnost s etnopolitick\u00fdmi spory. P\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du i jejich afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9 prot\u011bj\u0161ky v K\u00e1bulu si ji\u017e del\u0161\u00ed dobu vym\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed\u00a0obvin\u011bn\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0z aktivit ISKP.<\/p>\n

Prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 skupiny, p\u0159ednesen\u00e9 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm 36minutov\u00e9ho propagandistick\u00e9ho videa, obvi\u0148uje\u00a0Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1nskou osvobozeneckou arm\u00e1du<\/a>\u00a0(BLA) a\u00a0Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1nskou osvobozeneckou frontu<\/a>\u00a0(BLF), dv\u011b etnonacionalistick\u00e9 skupiny, z \u00fatoku na t\u00e1bory ISKP v Mastungu, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje do o\u010d\u00ed bij\u00edc\u00ed eskalaci v regionu, kter\u00fd je ji\u017e tak poznamen\u00e1n desetilet\u00edmi militarizace, n\u00e1siln\u00fdch zmizen\u00ed a ekonomick\u00e9 marginalizace, jak\u00a0zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0Abdul Sayed (expert na d\u017eih\u00e1dismus) a Riccardo Valle (zakladatel Militancy Chowk) ve sv\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku v Diplomatu. Tento v\u00fdvoj podtrhuje prohlubuj\u00edc\u00ed se zapleten\u00ed P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu do s\u00edt\u011b z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch konflikt\u016f, kde se st\u0159et\u00e1vaj\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed a nest\u00e1tn\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i, co\u017e ohro\u017euje region\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu a komplikuje \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed eurasijskou geopolitickou rovnici.<\/p>\n

Vznik ISKP jako agresivn\u00ed s\u00edly v oblasti Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1nu nen\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu dlouhou historii P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu v navazov\u00e1n\u00ed kontakt\u016f s ozbrojen\u00fdmi\u00a0z\u00e1stupci<\/a>\u00a0, co\u017e je strategie, kter\u00e1 sah\u00e1 mnohem hloub\u011bji ne\u017e jeho dob\u0159e zdokumentovan\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed do Ka\u0161m\u00edru. P\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd a zpravodajsk\u00fd apar\u00e1t, zejm\u00e9na Mezioborov\u00e1 zpravodajsk\u00e1 slu\u017eba (ISI), \u00fadajn\u011b po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed\u00a0p\u011bstoval<\/a>\u00a0militantn\u00ed skupiny k prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, od boje proti Indii v Ka\u0161m\u00edru a\u017e po udr\u017een\u00ed vlivu v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

Sta\u010d\u00ed \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee tato politika se mohla ohromn\u011b obr\u00e1tit proti nim, jeliko\u017e \u00fadajn\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitostn\u00ed aktiva (pokud v\u016fbec), jako Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (\u00a0TTP<\/a>\u00a0) a nyn\u00ed ISKP, se obr\u00e1tili proti st\u00e1tu nebo jeho z\u00e1jm\u016fm. V t\u00e9to pragmatick\u00e9 souh\u0159e st\u00e1t\u016f a ozbrojen\u00fdch skupin by hovo\u0159it o \u201ez\u00e1stupc\u00edch\u201c nebo \u201eaktivech\u201c mohlo b\u00fdt \u010dasto zjednodu\u0161en\u00edm. Je t\u0159eba si nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, Indie a \u00cdr\u00e1n pragmaticky\u00a0vedou<\/a>\u00a0diplomatick\u00e9 rozhovory s afgh\u00e1nskou vl\u00e1dou (Talib\u00e1nem), i kdy\u017e ji form\u00e1ln\u011b neuzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jakkoli, vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky ISKP proti bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdm separatist\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed sami vedou vlekl\u00e9 povst\u00e1n\u00ed proti Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du, odhaluje novou trhlinu v tomto komplexn\u00edm ekosyst\u00e9mu militantnosti. Zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm se na bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00e9 skupiny ISKP nejen zpochyb\u0148uje monopol p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu na n\u00e1sil\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 riskuje, \u017ee do n\u011bj zat\u00e1hne civiln\u00ed obyvatelstvo, jeliko\u017e skupina otev\u0159en\u011b pohrozila \u00fatokem na shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed za pr\u00e1va bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edk\u016f a jejich p\u0159\u00edznivce. Loni jsem\u00a0psal<\/a>\u00a0o v\u00fdm\u011bn\u011b vojensk\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem kv\u016fli bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00e9 ot\u00e1zce, tak\u017ee nen\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, jak by se tato z\u00e1le\u017eitost mohla vyhrotit p\u0159es hranice.<\/p>\n

Tato eskalace p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed v dob\u011b, kdy se P\u00e1kist\u00e1n ji\u017e pot\u00fdk\u00e1 se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdm nap\u011bt\u00edm pod\u00e9l sv\u00e9 v\u00fdchodn\u00ed hranice s Indi\u00ed po \u00fatoku v Pahalgamu v D\u017eamm\u00fa a Ka\u0161m\u00edru z 22. dubna 2025, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m zahynulo 26 turist\u016f a vyvolal vojenskou krizi. N\u00e1sledn\u00e9 indick\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 \u00fadery, nazvan\u00e9 Operace Sindoor, byly zam\u011b\u0159eny na \u00fadajnou militantn\u00ed infrastrukturu v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, co\u017e vyvolalo odvetn\u00e9 akce ze strany Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du.<\/p>\n

K\u0159ehk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed dohodnut\u00e9 za pomoci USA, ozn\u00e1men\u00e9 10. kv\u011btna, je st\u00e1le nejist\u00e9, proto\u017ee pod\u00e9l linie kontroly (LoC) p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed st\u0159ety. Indie opakovan\u011b obvi\u0148uje P\u00e1kist\u00e1n ze sponzorov\u00e1n\u00ed terorismu, co\u017e Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d pop\u00edr\u00e1 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 poukazuje prstem na \u00fadajnou indickou podporu bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdch separatist\u016f. Intervence ISKP nyn\u00ed riskuje dal\u0161\u00ed destabilizaci t\u00e9to k\u0159ehk\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy, proto\u017ee p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 nap\u011bt\u00ed na dal\u0161\u00ed frontu konfliktu, kter\u00fd je ji\u017e tak definov\u00e1n \u00fazemn\u00edmi a etnopolitick\u00fdmi spory (s pozad\u00edm n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9ho konfliktu).<\/p>\n

\u0160ir\u0161\u00ed d\u016fsledky t\u00e9to krize sahaj\u00ed i za hranice Ji\u017en\u00ed Asie a, jak jsem ned\u00e1vno\u00a0zd\u016fraznil<\/a>\u00a0, maj\u00ed dopady na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod a Kavkaz, co\u017e testuje media\u010dn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l multilater\u00e1ln\u00edch platforem, jako je \u0160anghajsk\u00e1 organizace pro spolupr\u00e1ci (\u0160OS) a BRICS. Jak jsem ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0poznamenal<\/a>\u00a0, zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed \u0160OS na region\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu a boj proti terorismu by mohlo poskytnout neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed prostor pro dialog, zejm\u00e9na s ohledem na vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se roli T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu jako komplikuj\u00edc\u00edho faktoru.<\/p>\n

T\u00e1lib\u00e1n, historicky do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry spjat\u00fd s P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem (slo\u017eit\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem), vykazuje zn\u00e1mky rostouc\u00ed anga\u017eovanosti v Indii, co\u017e vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 obavy v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du a p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed vrstvu slo\u017eitosti do region\u00e1ln\u00edho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho kalkulu. V n\u00e1vaznosti na agendu \u0160OS do roku 2025, kter\u00e1 zahrnovala diskuse o stabilizaci Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, by ji bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edt jako platformu pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edho terorismu \u2013 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9ho indick\u00e9ho probl\u00e9mu \u2013 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 pro podporu opat\u0159en\u00ed na budov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem. Rusko, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd hr\u00e1\u010d v \u0160OS, mezit\u00edm zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup, vyh\u00fdb\u00e1 se zapleten\u00ed do indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rivality a z\u00e1rove\u0148 podporuje region\u00e1ln\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ci, co\u017e je postoj, kter\u00fd je v souladu s jeho \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed eurasijskou strategi\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed intervence, zejm\u00e9na p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e9 Washingtonem, se naopak setkaly se skepticismem. Jednostrann\u00e9 ozn\u00e1men\u00ed prezidenta Donalda Trumpa, kter\u00e9 postr\u00e1d\u00e1 institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed podporu, vyvolalo\u00a0v Indii politickou reakci<\/a>\u00a0, kde je zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed strany v ot\u00e1zce Ka\u0161m\u00edru vn\u00edm\u00e1no jako ur\u00e1\u017eka suverenity. Tolik k z\u00e1padn\u00ed diplomatick\u00e9 d\u016fv\u011bryhodnosti, americk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup se jev\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e jako v\u00fdkonn\u00fd ne\u017e v\u011bcn\u00fd a ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny konfliktu. To op\u011bt podtrhuje pot\u0159ebu multilater\u00e1ln\u00edho r\u00e1mce, kde by platformy jako \u0160OS a BRICS, sice v tomto ohledu omezen\u00e9, ale nezat\u00ed\u017een\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00edmi p\u0159edsudky, mohly usnadnit dialog, ani\u017e by podkop\u00e1valy citliv\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky jednotliv\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Jedn\u00edm z probl\u00e9m\u016f je, \u017ee otev\u0159enost P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu v\u016f\u010di vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mediaci, o \u010dem\u017e sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed schv\u00e1len\u00ed Trumpovy nab\u00eddky jeho vyslancem, ost\u0159e kontrastuje s indick\u00fdm trv\u00e1n\u00edm na bilater\u00e1ln\u00edch \u0159e\u0161en\u00edch, co\u017e zd\u016fraz\u0148uje z\u00e1sadn\u00ed rozd\u00edl v p\u0159\u00edstupu.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edtomnost ISKP v Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1nu, bohat\u00e9m na zdroje, ale zanedb\u00e1van\u00e9m, zd\u016fraz\u0148uje neschopnost P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu \u0159e\u0161it st\u00ed\u017enosti prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm dialogu. Jeho militarizovan\u00e1 reakce, \u010dasto ozna\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed pokojn\u00e9 bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00e9 aktivisty za teroristy, p\u0159i\u017eivuje\u00a0odcizen\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0. Hrozby ISKP zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na demonstrace za pr\u00e1va bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdch aktivist\u016f stup\u0148uj\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed a riskuj\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed lidsk\u00fdch pr\u00e1v a radikalizaci. To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed za\u010darovan\u00fd kruh st\u00e1tn\u00ed represe a extremistick\u00e9ho n\u00e1sil\u00ed, destabilizuj\u00edc\u00ed Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1n a p\u00e1kist\u00e1nskou afgh\u00e1nskou hranici.<\/p>\n

Akce ISKP mohou nav\u00edc v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ne\u00famysln\u011b slou\u017eit z\u00e1jm\u016fm P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu t\u00edm, \u017ee odv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed pozornost od st\u00e1tem podporovan\u00fdch militant\u016f v Ka\u0161m\u00edru. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee ISI by mohla ISKP vyu\u017e\u00edvat\u00a0k boji proti bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdm povstalc\u016fm<\/a>\u00a0, co\u017e je strategie, kter\u00e1 by, pokud by byla pravdiv\u00e1, byla do o\u010d\u00ed bij\u00edc\u00ed manipulac\u00ed extremistick\u00fdch skupin k potla\u010den\u00ed etnick\u00e9ho disentu. Zat\u00edm se v\u0161ak jedn\u00e1 o spekulaci. Tato dvouse\u010dn\u00e1 zbra\u0148 riskuje pos\u00edlen\u00ed pozice ISKP v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b by mohla p\u0159edb\u011bhnout bal\u00fa\u010dskou hrozbu. Aby toho nebylo m\u00e1lo, ml\u010den\u00ed afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho Talibanu o akc\u00edch ISKP, navzdory jejich rivalit\u011b, nazna\u010duje mo\u017enou tichou spolupr\u00e1ci nebo strategick\u00e9 kalkulace.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee P\u00e1kist\u00e1n se ocit\u00e1 na k\u0159i\u017eovatce, chycen v s\u00edti, o kter\u00e9 n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee si ji s\u00e1m vytvo\u0159il, proto\u017ee v\u00e1lka ISKP proti bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdm separatist\u016fm eskaluje nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem a riskuje \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed eurasijsk\u00fd konflikt. \u0160OS a BRICS nab\u00edzej\u00ed cesty k deeskalaci, ale \u00fasp\u011bch z\u00e1vis\u00ed na p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed rozpor\u016f a postoje Indie ke Ka\u0161m\u00edru. P\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 \u201eproxy\u201c v\u00e1lka a militarizovan\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup zase p\u0159i\u017eivuj\u00ed nestabilitu. Toto je p\u0159\u00edklad t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se limit\u016f \u201eproxyfikace\u201c a toho, jak se m\u00edstn\u00ed konflikty mohou prom\u011bnit ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9my.<\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD<\/a>. v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky provincie Chor\u00e1s\u00e1n Isl\u00e1msk\u00fdm st\u00e1tem proti bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdm separatist\u016fm zintenziv\u0148uje nestabiln\u00ed konfliktn\u00ed sc\u00e9nu v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81068,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,79,6159,129,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81066"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81066\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}