{"id":80938,"date":"2025-06-11T00:23:36","date_gmt":"2025-06-10T22:23:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=80938"},"modified":"2025-06-10T12:18:57","modified_gmt":"2025-06-10T10:18:57","slug":"andrew-korybko-prichod-ruska-do-dnepropetrovsku-stavi-ukrajinu-do-dilematu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/11\/andrew-korybko-prichod-ruska-do-dnepropetrovsku-stavi-ukrajinu-do-dilematu\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: P\u0159\u00edchod Ruska do Dn\u011bpropetrovsku stav\u00ed Ukrajinu do dilematu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Je velmi t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, jak by Ukrajina mohla po tomto zabr\u00e1nit dal\u0161\u00edmu rusk\u00e9mu postupu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 ministerstvo obrany v ned\u011bli ozn\u00e1milo, \u017ee jeho s\u00edly vstoupily do ukrajinsk\u00e9 Dn\u011bpropetrovsk\u00e9 oblasti, co\u017e mluv\u010d\u00ed Kremlu Dmitrij Peskov\u00a0potvrdil\u00a0<\/a>jako sou\u010d\u00e1st Putinovy\u00a0\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bpl\u00e1novan\u00e9 n\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00e9 z\u00f3ny\u00a0<\/a>. S t\u00edm se\u00a0po\u010d\u00edtalo\u00a0<\/a>ji\u017e koncem srpna, kdy za\u010dala bitva o Pokrovsk, ale poda\u0159ilo se to i bez dobyt\u00ed tohoto strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9ho opevn\u011bn\u00e9ho m\u011bsta. Rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly jej po pr\u016flomu ji\u017en\u00ed donbask\u00e9 fronty jednodu\u0161e obe\u0161ly. Tento v\u00fdvoj stav\u00ed Ukrajinu do dilematu.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed bude muset sou\u010dasn\u011b opevnit Dn\u011bpropetrovskou frontu spolu s ji\u017en\u00ed Charkovskou a severn\u00ed Z\u00e1poro\u017eskou frontou pro p\u0159\u00edpad, \u017ee Rusko vyu\u017eije sv\u00e9 nov\u00e9 pozice k zah\u00e1jen\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy v kter\u00e9koli z t\u011bchto t\u0159\u00ed oblast\u00ed. To by mohlo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zat\u00ed\u017eit ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 se ji\u017e nyn\u00ed sna\u017e\u00ed zabr\u00e1nit velk\u00e9mu pr\u016flomu v Sumsk\u00e9 oblasti z Kurska. Spolu s ub\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edmi lidsk\u00fdmi zdroji a ot\u00e1zkami ohledn\u011b pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 pomoci by to mohlo sta\u010dit k rozpadu frontov\u00fdch lini\u00ed.<\/p>\n

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Jist\u011b, tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 byl v posledn\u00edch v\u00edce ne\u017e 1200 dnech mnohokr\u00e1t zmi\u0148ov\u00e1n, ale dnes se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt l\u00e1kav\u011b bl\u00ed\u017e ne\u017e kdy jindy. Pozorovatel\u00e9 by tak\u00e9 nem\u011bli zapom\u00ednat, \u017ee Putin Trumpovi \u0159ekl, \u017ee za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto m\u011bs\u00edce\u00a0zareaguje na\u00a0<\/a>strategick\u00e9 \u00fatoky dron\u016f\u00a0<\/a>ze strany Ukrajiny\u00a0, co\u017e by v kombinaci s v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdmi dv\u011bma faktory mohlo v\u00e9st k dosa\u017een\u00ed tohoto dlouho \u017e\u00e1dan\u00e9ho pr\u016flomu. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b by to mohla b\u00fdt jen symbolick\u00e1 demonstrace s\u00edly, ale mohlo by to b\u00fdt i\u00a0n\u011bco v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Nejlep\u0161\u00ed \u0161ance Ukrajiny, jak tomu zabr\u00e1nit, jsou, kdy\u017e USA bu\u010f p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed Rusko, aby souhlasilo se zmrazen\u00edm frontov\u00fdch lini\u00ed, nebo aby zah\u00e1jilo dal\u0161\u00ed ofenz\u00edvu. Prvn\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed by mohl b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edstup \u201ecukru a bi\u010de\u201c v podob\u011b n\u00e1vrhu lep\u0161\u00edho strategick\u00e9ho partnerstv\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9ho na zdroje, ne\u017e jak\u00e9 ji\u017e bylo nab\u00eddnuto, v\u00fdm\u011bnou za uvalen\u00ed ochromuj\u00edc\u00edch sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch sankc\u00ed na jej\u00ed energetick\u00e9 klienty (zejm\u00e9na \u010c\u00ednu a Indii s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdmi v\u00fdjimkami\u00a0<\/a>pro EU) a\/nebo zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed pomoci vojensk\u00fdm zpravodajsk\u00fdm slu\u017eb\u00e1m, pokud i nad\u00e1le odm\u00edtne.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o druhou mo\u017enost,\u00a0120 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e9 Ukrajina podle prezidenta Alexandra Luka\u0161enka loni v l\u00e9t\u011b shrom\u00e1\u017edila pod\u00e9l b\u011blorusk\u00fdch hranic, by mohlo p\u0159ekro\u010dit bu\u010f tuto hranici, nebo jednu z mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b uznan\u00fdch hranic Ruska. Objektivn\u011b vzato v\u0161ak ob\u011b mo\u017enosti maj\u00ed jen malou \u0161anci na \u00fasp\u011bch: Rusko dalo jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee ne\u017e se dohodne na jak\u00e9mkoli\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, mus\u00ed v konfliktu dos\u00e1hnout v\u00edce sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f\u00a0<\/a>, zat\u00edmco jeho \u00fasp\u011bch v vytla\u010den\u00ed Ukrajiny z\u00a0Kurska\u00a0<\/a>nev\u011bst\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed invaze.<\/p>\n

Pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee Ukrajina sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty souhlasem s dal\u0161\u00edmi rusk\u00fdmi po\u017eadavky na m\u00edr, je nulov\u00e1. Proto by se nevyhnuteln\u011b mohla rozhodnout, a\u0165 u\u017e m\u00edsto v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f, nebo soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s jedn\u00edm \u010di ob\u011bma z nich, zintenzivnit sv\u00e9 \u201enekonven\u010dn\u00ed operace\u201c proti Rusku. To se t\u00fdk\u00e1 atent\u00e1t\u016f, strategick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f dron\u016f a terorismu. To v\u0161ak pouze vyvol\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed (pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nadm\u011brnou) konven\u010dn\u00ed odvetu ze strany Ruska, a t\u00edm bolestn\u011b odd\u00e1l\u00ed zd\u00e1nliv\u011b nevyhnutelnou por\u00e1\u017eku Ukrajiny.<\/p>\n

S ohledem na kone\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek se zd\u00e1, \u017ee inflexn\u00ed bod je brzy dosa\u017een, nebo k n\u011bmu ji\u017e do\u0161lo, v tom smyslu, \u017ee se vojensko-strategick\u00e1 dynamika nevratn\u011b posune ve prosp\u011bch Ruska. Je velmi t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, jak se Ukrajina z tohoto dilematu dok\u00e1\u017ee vymanit. V\u0161echno nasv\u011bd\u010duje tomu, \u017ee je to nemo\u017en\u00e9, a\u010dkoli konflikt ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve p\u0159ekvapil pozorovatele na obou stran\u00e1ch, tak\u017ee to nelze vylou\u010dit. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b je to p\u0159ita\u017een\u00fd za vlasy sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 a je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed por\u00e1\u017eka Ukrajiny je na dosah.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Je velmi t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, jak by Ukrajina mohla po tomto zabr\u00e1nit dal\u0161\u00edmu rusk\u00e9mu postupu….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":80939,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1917,9289,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80938"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80938"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80938\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80940,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80938\/revisions\/80940"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80939"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}