{"id":80643,"date":"2025-06-07T04:29:24","date_gmt":"2025-06-07T02:29:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=80643"},"modified":"2025-06-07T04:29:24","modified_gmt":"2025-06-07T02:29:24","slug":"indicko-pakistansky-konflikt-se-vyostruje-a-je-zapleten-do-geopolitickych-rivalit-na-blizkem-vychode-a-kavkaze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/07\/indicko-pakistansky-konflikt-se-vyostruje-a-je-zapleten-do-geopolitickych-rivalit-na-blizkem-vychode-a-kavkaze\/","title":{"rendered":"Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt se vyost\u0159uje a je zapleten do geopolitick\u00fdch rivalit na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a Kavkaze"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt, kter\u00fd zintenzivnil \u00fatok v Pahalgamu v roce 2025 a operace Sindoor, vtahuje bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed mocnosti, jako je Izrael a Turecko, spolu s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem, do slo\u017eit\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b alianc\u00ed. Tato propletence hroz\u00ed, \u017ee prom\u011bn\u00ed rivalitu v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii v \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed geopolitick\u00fd ohnisko konfliktu a zkomplikuj\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

O trval\u00fdch d\u016fsledc\u00edch vzniku St\u00e1tu Izrael v roce 1948 v \u00fadol\u00ed Jord\u00e1nu bylo naps\u00e1no mnoho. O rok d\u0159\u00edve se v\u0161ak pod\u00e9l rovin \u0159eky Indus odehr\u00e1la dal\u0161\u00ed seismick\u00e1 geopolitick\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost \u2013 rozd\u011blen\u00ed Britsk\u00e9 Indie na Indii a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n v roce 1947. Prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt, jeho\u017e ko\u0159eny pramen\u00ed z tohoto rozd\u011blen\u00ed a jeho\u017e st\u0159edem je sporn\u00fd region Ka\u0161m\u00edr, je v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii ji\u017e dlouho ohniskem konflikt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 eskalace, zejm\u00e9na po\u00a0<\/span>teroristick\u00e9m \u00fatoku v Pahalgamu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(22. dubna 2025), p\u0159i kter\u00e9m zahynulo 26 civilist\u016f, znovu vr\u00e1tila tuto rivalitu do centra pozornosti cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta. Indick\u00e1 odvetn\u00e1 operace \u201eSindoor\u201c, zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed raketov\u00e9 \u00fadery na \u00fadajn\u00e9 teroristick\u00e9 lokality v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, znamenala nebezpe\u010dnou eskalaci mezi t\u011bmito jadern\u011b vyzbrojen\u00fdmi sousedy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sta\u010d\u00ed \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee dominov\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky konfliktu sahaj\u00ed daleko za hranice ji\u017en\u00ed Asie a zapl\u00e9taj\u00ed mocnosti Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a Kavkazu do slo\u017eit\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b alianc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ohro\u017euj\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed a dokonce i glob\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu.\u00a0<\/span>Pevn\u00e1 podpora Indie ze strany Izraele<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, neochv\u011bjn\u00e1 podpora P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu ze strany Turecka a spojen\u00ed \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu s Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dem tyto provazy n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem prohloubily a zkomplikovaly snahy o deeskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historick\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem, \u017eiven\u00e9 n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdm nacionalismem a \u00fazemn\u00edmi spory, nen\u00ed nov\u00e1\u010dkem vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm vliv\u016fm. V\u00fd\u0161e \u200b\u200bzm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 rozd\u011blen\u00ed z roku 1947, kter\u00e9 zrodilo tyto nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, zaselo semena sv\u00e1ru, kter\u00e1 p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1 dodnes, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e Ka\u0161m\u00edr z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 epicentrem jejich rivality.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je dost p\u0159\u00edzna\u010dn\u00e9, \u017ee ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 vzplanut\u00ed konfliktu, vyvolan\u00e9 \u00fatokem v Pahalgamu, vedlo Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>k pozastaven\u00ed \u00fa\u010dasti ve Smlouv\u011b o vod\u00e1ch Indu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, co\u017e je vz\u00e1cn\u00fd symbol spolupr\u00e1ce, kter\u00e1 p\u0159e\u017eila desetilet\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed, a potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed hydropolitick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky jsou ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed. Reakce Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du \u2013\u00a0<\/span>odstoupen\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0od m\u00edrov\u00e9 smlouvy ze \u0160imly z roku 1972 \u2013 d\u00e1le naru\u0161ila diplomatick\u00e9 z\u00e1brany. Akce obou zem\u00ed, umocn\u011bn\u00e9 modern\u00ed vojenskou technologi\u00ed, jako jsou drony a rakety, zv\u00fd\u0161ily s\u00e1zky a hrozba jadern\u00e9 eskalace se r\u00fdsuje do o\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed mocnosti v t\u00e9to krizi\u00a0<\/span>nez\u016fstaly neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Izrael, neochv\u011bjn\u00fd spojenec Indie, rychle podpo\u0159il operaci Sindoor a velvyslanec Reuven Azar potvrdil \u201epr\u00e1vo Nov\u00e9ho Dill\u00ed na sebeobranu\u201c proti terorismu. Tato solidarita nen\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e1 vzhledem k prohlubuj\u00edc\u00edmu se strategick\u00e9mu partnerstv\u00ed mezi Indi\u00ed a Izraelem, zejm\u00e9na v oblasti obrany a technologi\u00ed. Pou\u017eit\u00ed izraelsk\u00fdch dron\u016f Harop Indi\u00ed p\u0159i \u00fatoc\u00edch na P\u00e1kist\u00e1n podtrhuje jejich vojenskou spolupr\u00e1ci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podpora Izraele je nav\u00edc v souladu s jeho \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed geopolitickou strategi\u00ed, kter\u00e1 vn\u00edm\u00e1 Indii jako protiv\u00e1hu region\u00e1ln\u00edch protivn\u00edk\u016f a partnera v boji proti isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 militantnosti. Toto slad\u011bn\u00ed posiluje pozici Nov\u00e9ho Dill\u00ed a jeho schopnost prom\u00edtat s\u00edlu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se vyrovn\u00e1vat s dom\u00e1c\u00edm tlakem a rozhodn\u011b reagovat na terorismus. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 kritiku kv\u016fli polarizuj\u00edc\u00ed roli Izraele v palestinsk\u00e9m konfliktu, co\u017e ovliv\u0148uje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed image Indie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Naopak, role Turecka v tomto konfliktu je, jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, destabilizuj\u00edc\u00ed. Neochv\u011bjn\u00e1 podpora Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du ze strany Ankary, v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>dod\u00e1vek<\/span><\/a>\u00a0300\u2013400 dron\u016f Songar od Asisguard pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch pod\u00e9l linie kontroly, eskalovala nap\u011bt\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>Hlasit\u00e1 podpora P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu ze<\/span><\/a>\u00a0strany tureck\u00e9ho prezidenta Recepa Tayyipa Erdogana , kter\u00e1 chv\u00e1l\u00ed jeho \u201eklidnou a zdr\u017eenlivou politiku\u201c, odm\u00edt\u00e1 legitimn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed obavy Indie a posiluje postoj Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tureck\u00e9 kroky (je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed eskalac\u00ed) pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed jeho ambice prosadit si vliv i v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii, vyu\u017e\u00edt sv\u016fj obrann\u00fd export a ideologick\u00e9 spojen\u00ed s P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem k zpochybn\u011bn\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed dominance Indie. K \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm tureck\u00fdm ambic\u00edm jsem se vyj\u00e1d\u0159il\u00a0<\/span>jinde<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0<\/span>Podle<\/span><\/a>\u00a0koment\u00e1tora Samita Gupty tato \u201eregion\u00e1ln\u00ed rekalibrace\u201c p\u0159edstavuje \u201etransforma\u010dn\u00ed moment v geopolitice ji\u017en\u00ed Asie\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00e9 vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed spojen\u00ed, formalizovan\u00e9 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm f\u00f3r, jako byl\u00a0<\/span>t\u0159\u00edstrann\u00fd summit P\u00e1kist\u00e1n-Turecko-\u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v \u010dervenci 2024, p\u0159edstavuje p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd protiklad geopolitick\u00fdch man\u00e9vr\u016f Indie. Tolik k tvrzen\u00edm Turecka, \u017ee usiluje o \u201ez\u00e1kulisn\u00ed diplomacii\u201c ke zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed; jeho vojensk\u00e1 podpora P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu nazna\u010duje konfronta\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed agendu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ba\u0161\u00edr Ali Abb\u00e1s (vedouc\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00fd pracovn\u00edk Rady pro strategick\u00fd a obrann\u00fd v\u00fdzkum v Nov\u00e9m Dill\u00ed)\u00a0<\/span>tvrd\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee siln\u00e1 podpora Turecka P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu m\u00e1 ko\u0159eny ve sd\u00edlen\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 identit\u011b a historick\u00fdch obrann\u00fdch vazb\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00ed \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu s P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0zase d\u00e1le komplikuje geopolitickou situaci. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed podpora Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du ze strany Baku, vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00e1 b\u011bhem ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch st\u0159et\u016f, je v souladu s jeho strategick\u00fdm partnerstv\u00edm s Tureckem a odm\u00edtnut\u00edm uznat Arm\u00e9nii, co\u017e je postoj, kter\u00fd P\u00e1kist\u00e1n sd\u00edl\u00ed. Podpora \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu, a\u010dkoli je vojensky m\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 ne\u017e tureck\u00e1, m\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u011b symbolickou v\u00e1hu a posiluje tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc protiindickou osu na Kavkaze.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee se \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n tak\u00e9 postavil do pozice\u00a0<\/span>potenci\u00e1ln\u00edho prost\u0159edn\u00edka<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ve vztaz\u00edch mezi Tureckem a Izraelem, co\u017e vzhledem k prop\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu postoji \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu znepokojuje Indii. Tento v\u00fdvoj podtrhuje slo\u017eitou souhru region\u00e1ln\u00edch alianc\u00ed, kde se vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 konflikty prot\u00ednaj\u00ed s jihoasijsk\u00fdmi rivalitami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indick\u00e1 reakce na tyto probl\u00e9my byla um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e1, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 pevn\u00e1. Navazov\u00e1n\u00edm partnerstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>s \u0158eckem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Indie pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u016fsob\u00ed proti ose Turecko-P\u00e1kist\u00e1n-\u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, zejm\u00e9na na Kavkaze.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zapojen\u00ed bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edch a kavkazsk\u00fdch mocnost\u00ed do indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho konfliktu nen\u00ed pouze oportunistick\u00e9; odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 zm\u011bny. Tureck\u00e1 podpora P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu je v souladu s jeho rivalitou proti Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii a SAE, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovat jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem s c\u00edlem stabilizovat region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Opatrn\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy Rady pro spolupr\u00e1ci v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu k deeskalaci jsou v ostr\u00e9m kontrastu s provokativn\u00edmi kroky Turecka a zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed protich\u016fdn\u00e9 vize vlivu v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii. Izraelsk\u00e1 podpora Indie mezit\u00edm posiluje jeho strategickou pozici v Asii a \u010del\u00ed tak omezen\u00e9, ale hlasit\u00e9 podpo\u0159e P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu ze strany \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Syeda Mohammada Aliho, extern\u00edho akademika p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00edho v programu MEI pro Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n,\u00a0by se to nem\u011blo podce\u0148ovat (a to navzdory\u00a0<\/span>\u00edr\u00e1nsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 epizod\u011b z roku 2024<\/span><\/a>\u00a0). Takov\u00e1 spojenectv\u00ed, jakkoli slo\u017eit\u00e1 jsou, riskuj\u00ed, \u017ee prom\u011bn\u00ed indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt v z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 boji\u0161t\u011b pro bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed rivalitu, a t\u00edm zes\u00edl\u00ed jeho glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dopady. Lze tvrdit, \u017ee k tomu ji\u017e doch\u00e1z\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt, jakkoli je propleten s geopolitikou Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a Kavkazu (nemluv\u011b o n\u00e1bo\u017eenstv\u00ed a etnopolitice), vy\u017eaduje opatrn\u00e9 zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed. Tureck\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 a diplomatick\u00e1 podpora P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu spolu se symbolick\u00fdm sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00edm \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu zhor\u0161uje nap\u011bt\u00ed a hroz\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159it\u00e1hne dal\u0161\u00ed mocnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izraelsk\u00e1 podpora Indie a z\u00e1rove\u0148 posiluje postaven\u00ed Nov\u00e9ho Dill\u00ed, konflikt d\u00e1le polarizuje. Podle americk\u00e9ho arm\u00e1dn\u00edho strat\u00e9ga Andrewa Haanpaa projevuj\u00ed P\u00e1kist\u00e1n i Indie navzdory jadern\u00fdm schopnostem zdr\u017eenlivost a pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed omezenou s\u00edlu a donucovac\u00ed prost\u0159edky, aby se vyhnuly tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce. Jak jsem ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>poznamenal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u0160anghajsk\u00e1 organizace pro spolupr\u00e1ci (SCO) i BRICS by navzdory sv\u00fdm omezen\u00edm mohly v t\u00e9to krizi hr\u00e1t kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu nedostatky z\u00e1padn\u00ed mediace veden\u00e9 USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 podpora Washingtonu pro Indii a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, a\u010dkoli je strategicky motivovan\u00e1, ve skute\u010dnosti, jak jsem ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>uvedl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, riskuje zhor\u0161en\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed. Prozat\u00edm plat\u00ed k\u0159ehk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, ale z\u00e1kladn\u00ed zlomov\u00e9 linie \u2013 jak v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii, tak na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b \u2013 z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nebezpe\u010dn\u011b aktivn\u00ed a hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se p\u0159i sebemen\u0161\u00ed provokaci znovu rozho\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD<\/a>. v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt, kter\u00fd zintenzivnil \u00fatok v Pahalgamu v roce 2025 a operace Sindoor, vtahuje bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":80644,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,79,220,129],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80643"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80643"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80643\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80643"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80643"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80643"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}