{"id":80587,"date":"2025-06-06T00:19:06","date_gmt":"2025-06-05T22:19:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=80587"},"modified":"2025-06-05T13:09:36","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T11:09:36","slug":"jiri-paroubek-kratky-pohled-na-volebni-preference-politickych-stran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/06\/jiri-paroubek-kratky-pohled-na-volebni-preference-politickych-stran\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Kr\u00e1tk\u00fd pohled na volebn\u00ed preference politick\u00fdch stran"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

P\u0159izn\u00e1m se, \u017ee agentury Kantar a Ipsos z \u0159ady d\u016fvod\u016f pova\u017euji p\u0159i odhadu volebn\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f stran za p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017eli ty ostatn\u00ed. Agentura Ipsos m\u00e1 britskou metodiku a mysl\u00edm, \u017ee i zahrani\u010dn\u00ed dohled, a to s ohledem na seri\u00f3znost t\u00e9to celosv\u011btov\u00e9 agentury p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00ed i u n\u00e1s. N\u011bkter\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed agentury pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed pon\u011bkud tvrdo\u0161\u00edjn\u011b prezentuj\u00ed sv\u016fj pohled, kter\u00fd se n\u011bkomu m\u016f\u017ee zd\u00e1t jako manipulativn\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A jejich snahou je zp\u0159es\u0148ovat volebn\u00ed odhady, kdy\u017e se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed volby. U n\u011bkter\u00fdch agentur se nemohu zbavit dojmu, \u017ee se sna\u017e\u00ed spoluvytv\u00e1\u0159et sv\u00fdmi volebn\u00edmi odhady a jejich \u010dast\u00fdm zve\u0159ej\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed.\u00a0Podle pr\u016fzkum\u016f obou\u00a0 agentur se zd\u00e1, \u017ee hnut\u00ed ANO by mohlo zv\u00edt\u011bzit ve volb\u00e1ch s\u00a0v\u00fdsledkem 35 a\u017e 36 %.<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho se poda\u0159ilo zastavit pokles a obnovit dynamiku r\u016fstu preferenc\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho opozi\u010dn\u00edho hnut\u00ed – SPD. SPD z\u00a0n\u00edzk\u00fdch odhad\u016f volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00ed v\u00a0lednu t.r. , kdy se odhady volebn\u00edho v\u00fdsledku\u00a0 SPD u obou agentur pohybovaly kolem 5 %, se zd\u00e1, \u017ee integrac\u00ed osobnost\u00ed z\u00a0men\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1rodn\u011b profilovan\u00fdch politick\u00fdch stran se hnut\u00ed SPD dostalo hladce na 10 % preferenc\u00ed. Osobn\u011b bych o\u010dek\u00e1val v \u010dase do voleb je\u0161t\u011b ur\u010dit\u00fd m\u00edrn\u00fd r\u016fst. Zejm\u00e9na, pokud p\u0159edseda Okamura bude vystupovat d\u016frazn\u011b a um\u00edrn\u011bn\u011b jako dosud. Tedy tak jako v\u00a0posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. A za druh\u00e9, pokud osobnosti integrovan\u00e9 na kandid\u00e1tky hnut\u00ed z\u00a0mal\u00fdch politick\u00fdch stran dostanou skute\u010dn\u011b viditeln\u00e1 m\u00edsta na kandid\u00e1tce. SPD tak projev\u00ed svou schopnost integrovat nacion\u00e1ln\u011b vyhran\u011bn\u00fd politick\u00fd t\u00e1bor do siln\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho proudu.<\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed strany podle obou agentur sp\u00ed\u0161e posiluj\u00ed \u010di zachov\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u011bkolik posledn\u00edch\u00a0 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f volebn\u00ed preference na zhruba stejn\u011b \u00farovni.\u00a0Pokud bych se\u010detl preference koalice Spolu, d\u00e1le STANu a Pir\u00e1t\u016f, dostal bych se na \u010d\u00edslo zhruba 37 a\u017e 38 % u t\u011bchto p\u011bti politick\u00fdch stran, seskupen\u00fdch do t\u0159\u00ed formac\u00ed. Ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0t\u00edm, t\u00e1bor hnut\u00ed ANO a s\u00a0SPD by mohl disponovat 44 a\u017e 45 % preferenc\u00ed. Tedy jasn\u00e1 p\u0159evaha sou\u010dasn\u00e9 opozice.<\/p>\n

Nejistota volebn\u00edho v\u00fdsledku men\u0161\u00edch stran<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Podle Ipsosu a Kantaru nejsou volebn\u00ed preference\u00a0 vl\u00e1dn\u00edch politick\u00fdch formac\u00ed, v\u010d. Pir\u00e1t\u016f zdaleka takov\u00e9, aby zaru\u010dily, \u017ee tyto strany p\u0159es\u00e1hnou ve volb\u00e1ch do sn\u011bmovny s jistotou hranici 5 % hlas\u016f, pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch pro vstup\u00a0 p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 strany (formace) do poslaneck\u00e9 sn\u011bmovny. Nejh\u016f\u0159e je na tom zat\u00edm s\u00a0preferencemi SOCDEM, kter\u00e1 se pohybuje, podle obou agentur v kv\u011btnu kolem 2 %, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jej\u00ed preference, nemaj\u00ed vzestupn\u00fd trend.<\/p>\n

Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b se tak trochu pohybuj\u00ed s preferencemi jako na houpa\u010dce. Projevuje se u nich m\u00edrn\u011b sestupn\u00fd trend volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00ed, ale podle agentury Kantar, by se v\u00a0kv\u011btnu propracovali do poslaneck\u00e9 sn\u011bmovny. Jsou na tom ov\u0161em ve volebn\u00edch odhadech h\u016f\u0159e ne\u017eli opozi\u010dn\u011b-provl\u00e1dn\u00ed Pir\u00e1ti.<\/p>\n

Koalice Sta\u010dilo! je na tom podobn\u011b jako Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b. V\u00fdsledek t\u00e9to koalice odhadovan\u00fd pro p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 kv\u011btnov\u00e9 volby do sn\u011bmovny by se pohyboval od 4,5 do 5,8 %. Tak\u017ee op\u011bt: nic jist\u00e9ho. Koalice Sta\u010dilo! by se m\u011bla zab\u00fdvat t\u00edm, kde jsou p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny jej\u00ed politick\u00e9 stagnace. Smutn\u00e9 by bylo, pokud by ze stran protestu, jako jsou Motorist\u00e9, Sta\u010dilo! a SOCDEM, nez\u00edskala mand\u00e1ty do sn\u011bmovny \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z nich.<\/p>\n

Ostatn\u011b, ani Pir\u00e1ti nemaj\u00ed nic jist\u00e9ho. Jedna v\u011bc jsou volebn\u00ed preference Pir\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e9 v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b ov\u0161em stagnuj\u00ed a jin\u00e1 v\u011bc je, \u017ee Pir\u00e1ti ve v\u0161ech typech posledn\u00edch voleb \u2013 zj. pak ve volb\u00e1ch krajsk\u00fdch a sen\u00e1tn\u00edch p\u0159ed rokem \u2013 naprosto poho\u0159eli.<\/p>\n

Souhrnem lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee pokud nedojde ve volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00edch k\u00a0z\u00e1sadn\u00edmu zvratu, tak podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat dle dvou z\u00a0m\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti nep\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch agentur, velk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00edch stran nad vl\u00e1dn\u00edm t\u00e1borem, do n\u011bj\u017e po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1m i Pir\u00e1ty. Pokud se Pir\u00e1ti do p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed sn\u011bmovny ve volb\u00e1ch nedostanou, bude odstup obou vl\u00e1dn\u00edch formac\u00ed (Spolu a STAN) za v\u00fdsledkem hnut\u00ed ANO a SPD p\u0159\u00edmo hroziv\u00fd. A pokud se do sn\u011bmovny dostanou nap\u0159. Motorist\u00e9 a nedostanou se tam Pir\u00e1ti, m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt sou\u010dasn\u00fd opozi\u010dn\u00ed t\u00e1bor ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b s\u00edlu, op\u00edraj\u00edc\u00edm se prakticky o \u00fastavn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159izn\u00e1m se, \u017ee agentury Kantar a Ipsos z \u0159ady d\u016fvod\u016f pova\u017euji p\u0159i odhadu volebn\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":55786,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,3797,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80587"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80587"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80587\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}