{"id":80482,"date":"2025-06-05T00:16:13","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T22:16:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=80482"},"modified":"2025-06-04T14:53:30","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T12:53:30","slug":"cekani-na-oresniky-zatimco-istanbulske-kabuki-pokracuje-ne-negativne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/05\/cekani-na-oresniky-zatimco-istanbulske-kabuki-pokracuje-ne-negativne\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010cek\u00e1n\u00ed na Ore\u0161niky, zat\u00edmco istanbulsk\u00e9 kabuki pokra\u010duje \u201ene negativn\u011b\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Takov\u00e1 byla n\u00e1lada v informovan\u00e9 Moskv\u011b \u2013 jen p\u00e1r hodin p\u0159ed obnoven\u00fdm istanbulsk\u00fdm kabuki o \u201ejedn\u00e1n\u00edch\u201c mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou. T\u0159i kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 body.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \u00datok na rusk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 bombard\u00e9ry \u2013 sou\u010d\u00e1st jadern\u00e9 tri\u00e1dy \u2013 byl spole\u010dnou operac\u00ed USA a Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nie. Zejm\u00e9na MI6. Celkov\u00e9 technologick\u00e9 investice a strategie byly zaji\u0161t\u011bny pr\u00e1v\u011b touto zpravodajskou kombinac\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Je zcela nejasn\u00e9, zda je Trump skute\u010dn\u011b u moci \u2013 \u010di nikoli. V noci mi to potvrdil \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fd zdroj zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb; dodal, \u017ee Kreml a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slo\u017eky aktivn\u011b vy\u0161et\u0159uj\u00ed v\u0161echny mo\u017enosti, zejm\u00e9na to, kdo vydal kone\u010dnou zelenou.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161eobecn\u00fd konsenzus: Propustit Ore\u0161niky. Plus vlny balistick\u00fdch raket.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Jak se dalo o\u010dek\u00e1vat, instabulsk\u00e9 kabuki p\u0159i\u0161lo a ode\u0161lo jako k\u00fd\u010dovit\u00e1 pod\u00edvan\u00e1, dopln\u011bn\u00e1 ukrajinskou delegac\u00ed ve vojensk\u00fdch uniform\u00e1ch a ministrem obrany Umarovem, kter\u00fd na chaotick\u00e9 tiskov\u00e9 konferenci po kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 sch\u016fzce trvaj\u00edc\u00ed 1 hodinu a 15 minut neznal ani pr\u016fm\u011brnou angli\u010dtinu. Tureck\u00e9 ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed epicky popsalo kabuki jako z\u00e1v\u011br \u201ene negativn\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nejednalo se o ni\u010dem strategick\u00e9m ani politicky podstatn\u00e9m: pouze o v\u00fdm\u011bn\u00e1ch v\u011bz\u0148\u016f. V Moskv\u011b nav\u00edc panovala n\u00e1lada, \u017ee hlavn\u00ed rusk\u00fd vyjednava\u010d Medinskij m\u011bl p\u0159edlo\u017eit ultim\u00e1tum, nikoli memorandum. \u017debr\u00e1k z Banderast\u00e1nu si ho, jak se dalo o\u010dek\u00e1vat, interpretoval jako ultim\u00e1tum; to, co v\u0161ak Medinskij Ukrajinc\u016fm ve skute\u010dnosti p\u0159edal, bylo de facto memorandum o cest\u011b do 3 \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed se 2 mo\u017enostmi podm\u00ednek p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a 31 body, z nich\u017e velkou \u010d\u00e1st Moskva podrobn\u011b formulovala po cel\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

    P\u0159\u00edklady: prvn\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed by m\u011blo b\u00fdt \u00fapln\u00e9 sta\u017een\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny z DLR, LLR, Chersonu a Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed do 30 dn\u016f; mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed uzn\u00e1n\u00ed Krymu, Donbasu a Novoruska jako sou\u010d\u00e1sti Ruska; neutralita Ukrajiny; uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed voleb na Ukrajin\u011b a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 podeps\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 smlouvy \u2013 schv\u00e1len\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>pr\u00e1vn\u011b z\u00e1vaznou rezoluc\u00ed Rady bezpe\u010dnosti OSN<\/span><\/em>\u00a0(kurz\u00edva moje); a z\u00e1kaz p\u0159\u00edjmu a rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nic z toho samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nikdy nep\u0159ijme terorem napln\u011bn\u00e1 kyjevsk\u00e1 apar\u00e1tka, neonacistick\u00e9 skupiny, kter\u00e9 ji ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed, a r\u016fzn\u00ed, rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed kolektivn\u00ed podporovatel\u00e9 v\u00e1lky ze Z\u00e1padu. Tak\u017ee SMO bude pokra\u010dovat. Mo\u017en\u00e1 a\u017e do roku 2026. Spolu s dodate\u010dn\u00fdmi verzemi istanbulsk\u00e9ho kabuki: ta dal\u0161\u00ed by se m\u011bla konat koncem \u010dervna.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Sou\u010dasn\u00fd kabuki mimochodem skl\u00e1d\u00e1 sal\u00f3n posledn\u00ed \u0161ance, aby si Kyjev zachoval ur\u010ditou m\u00edru \u2013 rozt\u0159esen\u00e9 \u2013 \u201esuverenity\u201c. Jak ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Lavrov opakovan\u011b zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, v\u0161echno se skute\u010dn\u011b rozhodne na boji\u0161ti.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Jak zni\u010dit novou smlouvu START<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

    A nyn\u00ed k \u00fatoku na v\u011btev rusk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 tri\u00e1dy \u2013 kter\u00e1 zahalila z\u00e1padn\u00ed propagandistick\u00e1 m\u00e9dia do vrstev a vrstev stratosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 hysterie.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Znovu a znovu se hovo\u0159\u00ed o tom, pro\u010d Rusko nechalo sv\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 bombard\u00e9ry nechr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e9 na leti\u0161tn\u00ed plo\u0161e. Proto\u017ee to je po\u017eadavek nov\u00e9 smlouvy START \u2013 podepsan\u00e9 v roce 2010 a prodlou\u017een\u00e9 do \u00fanora p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku (kdy by se mohlo st\u00e1t, \u017ee se pono\u0159\u00ed i dva metry pod zem, vzhledem k tomu, co se pr\u00e1v\u011b stalo).<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nov\u00e1 smlouva START stanov\u00ed, \u017ee strategick\u00e9 bombard\u00e9ry by m\u011bly b\u00fdt viditeln\u00e9 pro \u201en\u00e1rodn\u00ed technick\u00e9 prost\u0159edky (NTM) ov\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, jako jsou satelitn\u00ed sn\u00edmky, aby je druh\u00e1 strana mohla monitorovat.\u201c Jejich stav \u2013 jadern\u011b vyzbrojen\u00e9 nebo p\u0159eveden\u00e9 na konven\u010dn\u00ed pou\u017eit\u00ed \u2013 by tedy m\u011bl b\u00fdt v\u017edy ov\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fd. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 \u0161ance na \u201ep\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd\u201c prvn\u00ed \u00fader.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Tato operace jednostrann\u011b zni\u010dila to, co bylo doposud slu\u0161nou relikvi\u00ed studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, a zabr\u00e1nila tak zah\u00e1jen\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky pomoc\u00ed jednoduch\u00e9ho mechanismu. Bezohlednost, kter\u00e1 s t\u00edm souvis\u00ed, je neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e1. Nen\u00ed tedy divu, \u017ee nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed patra moci v Rusku \u2013 od Kremlu a\u017e po bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed apar\u00e1t \u2013 hore\u010dn\u011b pracuj\u00ed na tom, aby zjistili, zda byl Trump v obraze, \u010di nikoli. A pokud ne, kdo dal kone\u010dnou zelenou?<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 zat\u00edm ml\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Zdroj z bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch slo\u017eek mi sd\u011blil, \u017ee Lavrovovi volal americk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Marco Rubio \u2013 a ne naopak \u2013 aby vyj\u00e1d\u0159il soustrast k teroristick\u00e9mu \u00fatoku na most ve vlaku v Brjansku. O strategick\u00fdch bombard\u00e9rech nepadlo ani slovo. Soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s t\u00edm b\u00fdval\u00fd velitel \u010dety v Ir\u00e1ku, tehdej\u0161\u00ed moder\u00e1tor Fox News, kter\u00fd se stal \u0161\u00e9fem Pentagonu, sledoval \u00fatoky dron\u016f na rusk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase.<\/span><\/p>\n

    O \u00fa\u010dinnosti takov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f \u2013 za hranicemi radostn\u011b zm\u00edtan\u00e9 mlhy v\u00e1lky. N\u011bkolik protich\u016fdn\u00fdch odhad\u016f poukazuje na mo\u017en\u00e9 z\u00e1sahy t\u0159\u00ed strategick\u00fdch bombard\u00e9r\u016f Tu-95MS \u2013 zn\u00e1m\u00fdch jako \u201eMedv\u011bdi\u201c \u2013 na z\u00e1kladn\u011b B\u011bl\u00e1 v Irkutsku, jeden z nich byl \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b po\u0161kozen, a na z\u00e1sahy t\u0159\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch letoun\u016f T-22M3, z nich\u017e dva byly neopraviteln\u011b po\u0161kozeny. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee po\u017e\u00e1ry t\u0159\u00ed letoun\u016f Tu-95MS byly lokalizov\u00e1ny, tak\u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9 je opravit.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Na z\u00e1kladn\u011b Olenya v Murmansku mohly b\u00fdt zasa\u017eeny dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i Tu-95MS a jeden An-12.<\/span><\/p>\n

    V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b m\u011blo Rusko k tomuto v\u00edkendu 58 letoun\u016f Tu-95MS. I kdy\u017e p\u011bt z nich bylo ztraceno nadobro, je to m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 10 % jejich flotily. A to nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 19 Tu-160 a 55 Tu-22M3M. Z p\u011bti z\u00e1kladen, kter\u00e9 m\u011bly b\u00fdt napadeny, se \u00fatok poda\u0159il pouze ve dvou.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Tyto ztr\u00e1ty, a\u0165 jsou sebebolestn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, jednodu\u0161e neovlivn\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fadery rusk\u00fdch leteck\u00fdch a kosmick\u00fdch sil.<\/span><\/p>\n

    P\u0159\u00edklad: standardn\u00ed zbran\u00ed, kterou nese T-95MSM, je st\u0159ela s plochou dr\u00e1hou letu X-101. Maxim\u00e1ln\u011b 8 na misi. P\u0159i ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch \u00faderech bylo sou\u010dasn\u011b odp\u00e1leno maxim\u00e1ln\u011b 40 raket. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee v akci je pouze 6 letoun\u016f Tu-95. Rusko tedy ve skute\u010dnosti pot\u0159ebuje pouze 6 letoun\u016f Tu-95MSM p\u0159ipraven\u00fdch k letu, aby mohlo prov\u00e1d\u011bt stejn\u011b intenzivn\u00ed \u00fadery jako v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch dnech a t\u00fddnech. Letouny Tu-160 se nav\u00edc p\u0159i posledn\u00edch \u00faderech ani nepou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Vyhodnocen\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed strategie<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

    V dob\u011b psan\u00ed tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku st\u00e1le nedostala rusk\u00e1 nevyhnuteln\u011b zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed reakce zelenou. To je naprosto v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 v\u011bc. I kdyby byla pravda, \u017ee prezident USA nebyl informov\u00e1n \u2013 a to si Kreml a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slu\u017eby cht\u011bj\u00ed b\u00fdt naprosto jist\u00e9, ne\u017e na Kyjev rozpout\u00e1 \u201epeklo shora\u201c \u2013 kontury operace NATO \u2013 USA\/Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed \u2013 p\u0159\u00edmo veden\u00e9 kombinac\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb CIA\/MI6, st\u00e1le budou jasn\u00e9, s Trumpem, kter\u00e9mu bude nab\u00eddnuto v\u011brohodn\u00e9 pop\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed a Ukrajinou, kter\u00e1 bude ve velk\u00e9m poru\u0161it protokol START.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pokud by Trump tyto \u00fadery schv\u00e1lil, znamenalo by to p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky Rusku ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em tedy z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Trumpa zasko\u010d\u00ed neokonzervativci zasazen\u00ed do privilegovan\u00fdch sil roztrou\u0161en\u00fdch po cel\u00e9m Beltway.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Stejn\u011b jako \u00fatok na radarov\u00fd syst\u00e9m v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed Voron\u011b\u017e-M v kv\u011btnu lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku, \u00fatok na rusk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 bombard\u00e9ry odpov\u00edd\u00e1 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho pob\u00edzen\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu k jeho zne\u0161kodn\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159ed prvn\u00edm jadern\u00fdm \u00faderem. Ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed Dr. Divnol\u00e1sci si tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 po desetilet\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed ve sv\u00fdch nejdivo\u010dej\u0161\u00edch snech.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Jak zdroje pe\u010dliv\u011b potvrdily, p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed interpretace mezi vysok\u00fdmi mocensk\u00fdmi patry v Rusku je, \u017ee jde o PR operaci, kter\u00e1 vynut\u00ed tvrdou \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 jadernou \u2013 ruskou reakci, spolu s odchodem Moskvy z istanbulsk\u00e9ho kabuki.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Rusk\u00e1 reakce je zat\u00edm pom\u011brn\u011b metodick\u00e1: naprost\u00e9 ticho, rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed a nav\u00edc prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9 kroky v Istanbulu.<\/span><\/p>\n

    P\u0159esto nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee \u2013 nevyhnuteln\u00e1 \u2013 reakce bude vy\u017eadovat maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed strategii. Pokud bude reakce v souladu s aktualizovanou ruskou jadernou doktr\u00ednou, Moskva riskuje ztr\u00e1tu t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jednomysln\u00e9 podpory glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pokud bude reakce vla\u017en\u00e1, dom\u00e1c\u00ed odveta bude masivn\u00ed. Existuje t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161eobecn\u00e1 shoda na \u201epropu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed Ore\u0161nik\u016f\u201c. Rusk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed u\u017e m\u00e1 v\u00e1\u017en\u011b dost toho, \u017ee je ter\u010dem s\u00e9riov\u00fdch teroristick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f. Hodina osudov\u00e9ho rozhodnut\u00ed se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Co\u017e n\u00e1s p\u0159iv\u00e1d\u00ed k z\u00e1sadn\u00edmu dilematu. Rusk\u00e1 mocnost p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161l\u00ed, jak porazit kolektivn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd \u0161tv\u00e1\u010d Z\u00e1padu, ani\u017e by rozpoutala t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed, inspirovan\u00e9 \u010c\u00ednou, by mohlo b\u00fdt nalezeno prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm aliance zremixovan\u00e9ho Sun-c’a ve spojen\u00ed s Lao-c’em. Mus\u00ed existovat zp\u016fsob \u2013 nebo v\u00edcen\u00e1sobn\u00e9 zp\u016fsoby \u2013 jak zni\u010dit strategicky zbaven\u00e9ho nihilistick\u00e9ho nep\u0159\u00edtele, jeho\u017e schopnost a v\u016fli v\u00e9st nekone\u010dnou v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pepe Escobar<\/a><\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Takov\u00e1 byla n\u00e1lada v informovan\u00e9 Moskv\u011b \u2013 jen p\u00e1r hodin p\u0159ed obnoven\u00fdm istanbulsk\u00fdm kabuki o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":80352,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,3788,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80482"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80482\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80352"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}