{"id":80310,"date":"2025-06-03T00:19:05","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T22:19:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=80310"},"modified":"2025-06-02T12:23:37","modified_gmt":"2025-06-02T10:23:37","slug":"jaroslav-neveris-zamazal-navrat-do-istanbulu-aneb-trumpova-telenovela","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/03\/jaroslav-neveris-zamazal-navrat-do-istanbulu-aneb-trumpova-telenovela\/","title":{"rendered":"Jaroslav Neveris Zamazal: N\u00e1vrat do Istanbulu aneb Trumpova telenovela"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Donald Trump si cht\u011bl ve sv\u00e9m seznamu \u00fakol\u016f rychle od\u0161krtnou polo\u017eku \u201ep\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b\u201c, aby se mohl prohl\u00e1sit za stabiln\u011b geni\u00e1ln\u00edho vyjedn\u00e1va\u010de a v\u00a0poklidu \u010dekat na Nobelovu cenu. Za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem cht\u011bl uzav\u0159\u00edt dohodu o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed fakticky za jak\u00fdchkoli podm\u00ednek a bez ohledu na obsah. Tedy se to zd\u00e1lo tak snadn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Jeliko\u017e Trump se nehodlal zat\u011b\u017eovat detaily jako je ot\u00e1zka, kdo celou v\u00e1lku zah\u00e1jil, a rozhodn\u011b nem\u011bl v\u00a0\u00famyslu se zab\u00fdvat n\u011bjak\u00fdmi kompromisy \u010di vyv\u00e1\u017eenost\u00ed, nato\u017e pak br\u00e1t ohled na Ukrajinu \u010di na spojeneck\u00e9 vazby a z\u00e1rove\u0148 m\u00e1 pod sv\u00fdm velen\u00edm vojenskou i ekonomickou s\u00edlu USA, tak m\u011bl pro svou vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed ofenz\u00edvu opravdu hodn\u011b \u0161irok\u00fd man\u00e9vrovac\u00ed prostor, kde mohl rozvinout sv\u00e9 siln\u00e9 str\u00e1nky a p\u0159edv\u00e9st sv\u016fj talent. A vskutku dos\u00e1hl d\u00edl\u010d\u00edho \u00fasp\u011bchu, kdy\u017e mu Vladim\u00edr Putin poslal\u00a0lichotiv\u00fd obraz<\/a>\u00a0(sice u\u017e takov\u00fd Trump v\u00a0B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b\u00a0m\u00e1<\/a>, ale to nevad\u00ed),<\/p>\n

Zase je nutno p\u0159iznat, \u017ee v\u00a0jednu chv\u00edli se Trumpovi poda\u0159ilo dostat Rusko pod tlak. Ov\u0161em je nejist\u00e9, zda to byl jeho z\u00e1m\u011br. Stalo se tak p\u0159i Trumpov\u011b \u201eceln\u00ed bou\u0159i\u201c, kter\u00e1 vyvolala glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1chvat nejistoty, jen\u017e se projevil poklesem cen ropy. Na druhou stranu vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e1 \u201ecla\u201c se Ruska (jako jedn\u00e9 z\u00a0m\u00e1la zem\u00ed) net\u00fdkala a Trumpov\u00fdm z\u00e1m\u011brem bylo dostat pod tlak \u010c\u00ednu. A s\u00a0t\u00edm to tak\u00e9 vypad\u00e1\u00a0v\u0161elijak<\/a>\u00a0a navzdory sil\u00e1ck\u00fdm p\u00f3z\u00e1m to podez\u0159ele zav\u00e1n\u00ed legend\u00e1rn\u00ed klausovskou \u201enev\u00fdhrou\u201c.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed \u2013 prvn\u00ed pokus<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Ov\u0161em v\u00a0ot\u00e1zce p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed to po\u0159\u00e1d drhlo. Zat\u00edmco Putin neust\u00e1le ml\u017eil neust\u00e1l\u00fdmi p\u0159ipom\u00ednkami a bizarn\u00edmi n\u00e1pady ve stylu, a\u0165 spr\u00e1vu Ukrajiny p\u0159evezme n\u011bjak\u00e1 agencie OSN (co\u017e je zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b vtipn\u00e9, jeliko\u017e OSN uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 hranice Ukrajiny z\u00a0roku 1991), ke konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm krok\u016fm sm\u011brem k\u00a0Trumpem vytou\u017een\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed se nem\u011bl (bl\u00ed\u017ee viz t\u0159eba\u00a0zde<\/a>, zejm\u00e9na 08:00-15:00) a dokonce i s\u00e1m Trump si u\u017e na konci b\u0159ezna 2025 st\u011b\u017eoval, \u017ee Putin zbyte\u010dn\u011b zdr\u017euje. Ov\u0161em Vladim\u00edr se rozhodl, \u017ee uk\u00e1\u017ee trochu t\u00e9 dominance, a tak slavn\u011b vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 t\u0159icetidenn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed fakticky nikdy nenastalo a nam\u00edsto toho p\u0159edhodil Trumpovi cca t\u0159icetihodinov\u00e9, proto\u017ee cht\u011bl m\u00edt klid pro svou exhibici 9. kv\u011btna na Rud\u00e9m n\u00e1m\u011bst\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Putinovy hr\u00e1tky<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Po\u0159\u00e1d se \u010dekalo, \u017ee Trump p\u0159ekvap\u00ed a uk\u00e1\u017ee Putinovi, \u017ee si na n\u011bj nem\u00e1 dovolovat, av\u0161ak zat\u00edm kde nic, tu nic. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b u\u017e s\u00a0jistotou v\u00edme, kdo nep\u0159ekvap\u00ed. Putin zjevn\u011b nec\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee by m\u011bl d\u016fvod m\u011bnit v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Trumpa to, co mu fungovalo na Bidena a op\u011bt vyt\u00e1hl\u2026. Velk\u00e9 p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed\u2026.. (v\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed bubn\u016f a chv\u00edle nap\u011bt\u00ed)\u2026..\u00a0hrozbu jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed<\/a>. Tak\u017ee u\u017e zase n\u00e1m hroz\u00ed \u201ejadern\u00e1 apokalypsa\u201c. Pr\u00fd. Stejn\u011b jako t\u0159eba na\u00a0ja\u0159e 2024<\/a>, v\u00a0\u0159\u00edjnu 2024<\/a>, v\u00a0listopadu 2024<\/a>,\u00a0 a prakticky kdykoli p\u0159ed t\u00edm, kdy\u017e se Rusku n\u011bco nel\u00edbilo.<\/p>\n

Putin zjevn\u011b kalkuluje s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee kdy\u017e bude d\u011blat dost vytrvale cavyky, tak Trump bude sice slovn\u011b \u201epo\u0161t\u011bk\u00e1vat\u201c na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch, ale nakonec nam\u00edsto \u201ekousnut\u00ed\u201c do Moskvy znovu zatla\u010d\u00ed na Kyjev, aby Putinovi nab\u00eddku je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce osladil. Anebo v \u201enejhor\u0161\u00edm\u201c p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se prost\u011b vyka\u0161le na m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, ale svede to na Ukrajince a podporu jim neobnov\u00ed, zat\u00edmco na Putina se nad r\u00e1mec plan\u00fdch \u0159e\u010d\u00ed nijak neodv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed (bl\u00ed\u017ee viz\u00a0zde<\/a>\u00a07:00-13:00, co\u017e zbylo z\u0159ejm\u00e9 u\u017e po\u010d\u00e1tkem dubna, viz\u00a0zde<\/a>\u00a014:00-19:00). A je celkem jedno, zda to bude z\u00a0naivity (tj. bude i nad\u00e1le v\u00e1\u017en\u011b br\u00e1t Putinova pr\u00e1zdn\u00e1 gesta jako \u201eobraz pro Trumpa, spr\u00e1va OSN pro Ukrajinu, sliby pu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed americk\u00e9ho byznysu do rusk\u00e9ho energetick\u00e9ho sektoru, pidip\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed na Velikonoce, pidip\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed na 9. kv\u011btna atd.), anebo zda Trump tato pr\u00e1zdn\u00e1 gesta bude br\u00e1t jen jako z\u00e1st\u011brku pro sv\u016fj oby\u010dejn\u00fd strach hr\u00e1t na Putina tvrd\u011b.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed \u2013 druh\u00fd pokus<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Tak \u010di onak, Trump\u016fv dramaticky prezentovan\u00fd\u00a0\u0161estn\u00e1ctibodov\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd n\u00e1vrh<\/a>\u00a0z\u00a0konce dubna 2025, v\u00a0n\u011bm\u017e se pokusil Putina obm\u011bk\u010dit p\u0159id\u00e1n\u00edm dal\u0161\u00edch \u00fastupk\u016f (mimo jin\u00e9 uzn\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 okupace Krymu jako legitimn\u00ed a zru\u0161en\u00ed sankc\u00ed od roku 2014) vy\u0161um\u011bl na rusk\u00e9m nez\u00e1jmu do ztracena. Tak op\u011bt, jako u\u017e mnohokr\u00e1t p\u0159edt\u00edm, do\u010dasn\u011b p\u0159evl\u00e1dl dojem, \u017ee \u201ete\u010f u\u017e se Trump na Putina opravdu na\u0161tve\u201c a potrest\u00e1 ho sankcemi, kter\u00e9 u\u017e dlouho le\u017e\u00ed p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 v\u00a0americk\u00e9m Sen\u00e1tu, kde maj\u00ed drtivou podporu (viz t\u0159eba zpr\u00e1vy z\u00a0b\u0159ezna<\/a>\u00a0a z\u00a0kv\u011btna<\/a>). Tak\u017ee se z\u00e1stupci evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed zkusili rozh\u00fdbat a v\u00a0koordinaci s\u00a0Trumpem se pokusili hrozbou sankc\u00ed zatla\u010dit na prosazen\u00ed alespo\u0148 prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti jeho m\u00edrov\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nu, a to t\u0159icetidenn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, b\u011bhem n\u011bho\u017e by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159istoupit k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edm krok\u016fm k\u00a0ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Ov\u0161em Putin situaci spr\u00e1vn\u011b vyhodnotil, jak v\u00fdsti\u017en\u011b shrnula Lucie Sulovsk\u00e1 (viz\u00a0zde<\/a>\u00a09:00-11:20) tak, \u017ee \u201eTrumpovo slovo nev\u00e1\u017e\u00ed v\u016fbec nic.<\/em>\u201c, v\u00a0\u010dem\u017e se nespletl. To ov\u0161em nep\u0159edstavuje \u017e\u00e1dnou hlubokou genialitu na Putinov\u011b stran\u011b, n\u00fdbr\u017e jednoduchou logickou \u00favahu, \u017ee pokud by Trump opravdu hrozbu sankc\u00ed myslel v\u00e1\u017en\u011b, tak by ji Putinovi sd\u011blil d\u016frazn\u011b a p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm osobn\u011b, ale nepok\u0159ikoval by ji do pl\u00e9na na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch. T\u00edm se sou\u010dasn\u00fd americk\u00fd prezident bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed politick\u00e9mu stylu sv\u00e9ho p\u0159edch\u016fdce Bidena, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b stylu evropsk\u00fdch politik\u016f (typicky, ale nikoli v\u00fdlu\u010dn\u011b t\u0159eba Emmanuel Macron), tj. sil\u00e1ck\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, po nich\u017e nen\u00e1sleduje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd re\u00e1ln\u00fd obsah (viz\u00a0tamt\u00e9\u017e<\/a>\u00a038:00-41:00). A opravdu, Trump vz\u00e1p\u011bt\u00ed p\u0159estal (op\u011bt) o sankc\u00edch mluvit, co\u017e celou akci (op\u011bt) oto\u010dilo ve prosp\u011bch Ruska. Putin tak mohl (op\u011bt) snadno z\u00edskat dal\u0161\u00ed PR body \u201epevn\u00fdm postojem\u201c, jeliko\u017e evropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty (z nich\u017e nav\u00edc n\u011bkter\u00e9 krom\u011b dotac\u00ed evropsk\u00fdch aktivn\u011b usiluj\u00ed i o \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed dotac\u00ed z\u00a0Ruska a tomu p\u0159izp\u016fsobuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 politick\u00e9 postoje) samy o sob\u011b p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed hrozbu.<\/p>\n

Situaci nepomohl ani n\u011bmeck\u00fd kancl\u00e9\u0159 Merz, jen\u017e v\u00a0rozhovoru z\u00a015. kv\u011btna se\u00a0vzdal jednoho z\u00a0m\u00e1la trumf\u016f<\/a>, kter\u00e9 N\u011bmecko m\u00e1 pro p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd tlak na Putina, a to dod\u00e1vky pokro\u010dil\u00fdch st\u0159el Taurus. Tu v\u00a0loni na podzim p\u0159isl\u00edbil pr\u00e1v\u011b pro p\u0159\u00edpad, \u017ee Rusko nebude ochotn\u00e9 k\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, a po sv\u00e9m n\u00e1stupu do kancl\u00e9\u0159sk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu ji potvrdil. Ov\u0161em v\u00a0kv\u011btnu, pr\u00e1v\u011b b\u011bhem v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho pokusu o tlak na Rusko, sv\u016fj slib poru\u0161il (by\u0165 ot\u00e1zkou z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, zda v\u00a0d\u016fsledku sv\u00e9 osobn\u00ed bezp\u00e1te\u0159nosti, anebo pod tlakem sv\u00fdch koali\u010dn\u00edch partner\u016f z\u00a0SPD, jejich\u017e podpora pro Ukrajinu je sice verb\u00e1ln\u011b deklarovan\u00e1, ale v\u00a0praxi je \u201especifick\u00e1\u201c \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad\u00a0zde<\/a>, \u010d\u00e1st \u201eSlova a realita\u201c).<\/p>\n

\u010cek\u00e1n\u00ed v Istanbulu<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Proto Putin p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed s\u00a0klidem odm\u00edtl pod bizarn\u00ed z\u00e1minkou, \u017ee se neosv\u011bd\u010dilo j\u00edm jednostrann\u011b navr\u017een\u00e9, nik\u00fdm ne\u017e\u00e1dan\u00e9 a re\u00e1ln\u00fd \u00fa\u010del postr\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed, pidip\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed z\u00a09. kv\u011btna. A nam\u00edsto p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161el s\u00a0n\u00e1vrhem p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0Ukrajinci. To zn\u011blo velmi hezky, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e si Putin tentokr\u00e1t nen\u00e1rokoval \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 \u00fastupky, kter\u00e9 by obdr\u017eel jen za to, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 delegace se jedn\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed. N\u011bco takov\u00e9ho je sice b\u011b\u017en\u00fdm standardem, proto\u017ee podm\u00ednky a \u00fastupky p\u0159irozen\u011b b\u00fdvaj\u00ed a\u017e p\u0159edm\u011btem samotn\u00e9ho jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, ale oproti dosavadn\u00edmu pr\u016fb\u011bhu Trumpovy diplomatick\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy to p\u0159edstavovalo velk\u00fd pokrok. H\u00e1\u010dek byl v\u00a0tom, \u017ee \u0161lo o jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0Istanbulu, co\u017e p\u0159\u00edmo evokovalo pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 \u0161ar\u00e1dy, je\u017e tam prob\u00edhala na ja\u0159e 2022 a s\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00fdm jedn\u00e1n\u00edm m\u011bla m\u00e1lo spole\u010dn\u00e9ho. Ukrajinci tedy m\u011bli na p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed Putina \u201ep\u0159il\u00e9zt ke k\u0159\u00ed\u017eku\u201c. Do toho se jim p\u0159irozen\u011b necht\u011blo, ale Trump si to p\u0159\u00e1l a oni (na rozd\u00edl od Putina) si nemohli dovolit mu nevyhov\u011bt. Tak Zelenskyj souhlasil a kontroval nab\u00eddkou, \u017ee v\u00a0Istanbulu se s\u00a0Putinem setk\u00e1 osobn\u011b on s\u00e1m (bl\u00ed\u017ee viz\u00a0zde<\/a>, zejm\u00e9na 13:00-20:00).<\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledkem bylo chvilkov\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed ve stylu \u201eP\u0159ijede, nep\u0159ijede?\u201c, ale re\u00e1ln\u011b \u0161lo pouze o medi\u00e1ln\u00ed bublinu. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku bylo jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Putin nep\u0159ijede, proto\u017ee dlouhodob\u011b nechce jednat \u201es Ukrajinou\u201c, n\u00fdbr\u017e pouze \u201eo Ukrajin\u011b\u201c (a bez Ukrajinc\u016f). A hlavn\u011b, istanbulsk\u00e9 divad\u00e9lko nebylo m\u00edn\u011bno jako skute\u010dn\u00e9 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, n\u00fdbr\u017e jako pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161e m\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch pr\u00e1zdn\u00fdch gest (telefon\u00e1ty, obraz, spr\u00e1va OSN nad Ukrajinou, pidip\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed velikono\u010dn\u00ed \u010di kv\u011btnov\u00e9) pro balamucen\u00ed Trumpa a vzbuzov\u00e1n\u00ed dojmu, \u017ee jeho snahu Putin bere v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Potvrdila to i skute\u010dnost, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 delegace byla prakticky stejn\u00e1 jako v\u00a0roce 2022, tj. bezv\u00fdznamn\u00e1 a bez mand\u00e1tu k\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00fdm jedn\u00e1n\u00edm. Proto tak\u00e9 z\u00a0rusk\u00e9 strany k\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu jedn\u00e1n\u00ed nedo\u0161lo a pouze byly p\u0159edlo\u017eeny po\u017eadavky na faktickou kapitulaci Ukrajiny, kter\u00e9 by mo\u017en\u00e1 d\u00e1valy smysl, kdyby rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da u\u017e dr\u017eela Kyjev a postupovala na z\u00e1pad od Dn\u011bpru, ale ur\u010dit\u011b ne te\u010f. Mimo jin\u00e9 i p\u0159ed\u00e1n\u00ed, nejen faktick\u00e9, ale i de iure, Krymu a \u010dty\u0159ech \u201eanektovan\u00fdch\u201c oblast\u00ed, a to v\u010detn\u011b dosud neobsazen\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed (bl\u00ed\u017ee viz t\u0159eba\u00a0zde<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Trumpova gymnastika<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Trump nejd\u0159\u00edve v\u00a0pond\u011bl\u00ed 12. kv\u011btna\u00a0prohl\u00e1sil<\/a>, \u017ee je p\u0159ipraven do Istanbulu p\u0159ijet a \u017ee Putin by ho tam cht\u011bl m\u00edt. N\u00e1sledn\u011b dorazila (nep\u0159ekvapiv\u00e1) zpr\u00e1va, \u017ee Putin tam nedoraz\u00ed. V\u00a0tomto kontextu by pochopiteln\u011b nebylo pro Putina p\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9, kdyby on nedorazil a Trump ano, jeliko\u017e by to v\u00edce uk\u00e1zalo zjevnou skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Putin, navzdory Trumpov\u00fdm tvrzen\u00edm, re\u00e1ln\u011b vyjedn\u00e1vat nehodl\u00e1 a samotn\u00e9ho Trumpa v\u00a0tomto sm\u011bru nebere v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Proto Trump pohotov\u011b oto\u010dil a nasadil narativ ve stylu \u201eV Istanbulu o nic nejde, stejn\u011b se nic nedohodne, kdy\u017e tam j\u00e1 nebudu.\u201c A pokusil se dokonce oto\u010dit cel\u00fd sled ud\u00e1lost\u00ed tak, aby Putin nevypadal \u0161patn\u011b, a vzal na sebe jeho nep\u0159\u00edtomnost. V\u00a0pod\u00e1n\u00ed Trumpa toti\u017e Putin do Istanbulu nep\u0159ilet\u00ed, proto\u017ee se doslechl, \u017ee tam nebude Trump (bl\u00ed\u017ee viz\u00a0zde<\/a>). Mo\u017en\u00e1 to je Trumpova snaha, jak vyvolat dojem sv\u00e9 d\u016fle\u017eitosti a nezbytnosti, ale bohu\u017eel to sp\u00ed\u0161e vypad\u00e1 jako slabost a servilita.<\/p>\n

Dramatick\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong><\/h3>\n

P\u0159ed setk\u00e1n\u00edm v\u00a0Istanbulu panovala o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o jak\u00fdsi bod zlomu, kdy bude odhalena Putinova manipulace Trumpa a jeho neochota k\u00a0ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky a tentokr\u00e1t u\u017e opravdu se Trump na\u0161tve p\u0159ijde \u010das na sankce. Nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0tomto rozhovoru<\/a>\u00a0z\u00a015. kv\u011btna Tom\u00e1\u0161 Kope\u010dn\u00fd uvedl: \u201eNyn\u00ed se dost\u00e1v\u00e1me do ur\u010dit\u00e9ho zlomov\u00e9ho bodu, po kter\u00e9m diplomacie Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f bude bu\u010f muset uk\u00e1zat pr\u00e1zdnou ruku, co\u017e neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, anebo prost\u011b karty vylo\u017eit.<\/em>\u201c, proto\u017ee v\u00a0takov\u00e9 konstelaci bylo pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee se nic nedohodne. K\u00a0tomu Kope\u010dn\u00fd dod\u00e1v\u00e1: \u201ePokud to bude n\u011bco, co bude p\u0159edstavovat trochu v\u00fdsm\u011bch nebo minim\u00e1ln\u011b odm\u00edtnut\u00ed americk\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f, kter\u00e9 do toho investovaly velk\u00fd zahrani\u010dn\u011b politick\u00fd kapit\u00e1l, mysl\u00edm, \u017ee pak bude americk\u00e1 diplomacie st\u00e1t p\u0159ed t\u00edm, \u017ee bude bu\u010f cel\u00e9mu sv\u011btu pro sm\u00edch, \u017ee neud\u011bl\u00e1 nic, nebo \u017ee to opravdu spust\u00ed.<\/em>\u201c Toto hodnocen\u00ed situace je spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 z\u00a0hlediska logiky a z\u00a0hlediska americk\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f a presti\u017ee. Dosavadn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v\u0161ak vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 pochybnosti, zda Trump p\u016fjde touto cestou.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0t\u00e9m\u017ee rozhovoru Kope\u010dn\u00fd doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee ur\u010ditou \u201ez\u00e1chranou\u201c z\u00a0dilematu sankce, anebo posm\u011bch by bylo posunut\u00ed cel\u00e9ho jedn\u00e1n\u00ed na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148, tj. uskute\u010dn\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho setk\u00e1n\u00ed Donalda Trumpa s\u00a0Vladim\u00edrem Putinem. To jist\u011b nelze vylou\u010dit, nebo\u0165 (bez ohledu na dosa\u017een\u00ed \u010di nedosa\u017een\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f) by to byla p\u016fsobiv\u00e1 show, co\u017e se l\u00edb\u00ed Trumpovi. A s\u00a0trochou snahy by se z\u00a0rusk\u00e9 strany snadno zre\u017e\u00edrovala ve stylu \u201eTrump jede za mnou\u201c, co\u017e by se l\u00edbilo i Putinovi. Ov\u0161em zat\u00edm to na n\u011bjak\u00fd pr\u016flom v\u00a0tomto sm\u011bru nevypad\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Studen\u00e1 sprcha<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Dokonce i podcast Kavi\u00e1rov\u00e9 tousty, jen\u017e rozhodn\u011b nen\u00ed apriori antitrumpovsk\u00fd a u\u017e v\u016fbec ne \u201eliber\u00e1ln\u00ed\u201c (viz jeho auto\u0159i\u00a0Ji\u0159\u00ed Just<\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0Lucie Sulovsk\u00e1<\/a>), p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nou epizodu z\u00a021. kv\u011btna mapuj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj po istanbulsk\u00e9m jedn\u00e1n\u00ed nazval \u201ePutin d\u00e1l tah\u00e1 Trumpa na va\u0159en\u00e9 nudli, p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed se vzdaluje<\/a>\u201c. Ilustrac\u00ed toho byl\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00fd telefon\u00e1t<\/a>\u00a0Trumpa s\u00a0Putinem, jen\u017e byl z\u00a0americk\u00e9 strany prezentov\u00e1n jako n\u011bco (na rozd\u00edl od istanbulsk\u00e9 sch\u016fzky) skute\u010dn\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho. Ov\u0161em Putin se kv\u016fli Trumpovi neobt\u011b\u017eoval ani lehce modifikovat sv\u016fj program a Trump\u016fv telefon\u00e1t p\u0159evzal b\u011bhem exkurze ve \u0161kole v\u00a0So\u010di, kde si jen zalezl stranou kamsi do kabinetu, aby si vyslechl, co m\u00e1 \u201ep\u0159\u00edtel Donald\u201c na srdci. Zat\u00edmco n\u00e1sledn\u011b Trump, pot\u00e9, co (jako obvykle) ozna\u010dil telefon\u00e1t za velmi dobr\u00fd, dramaticky oznamoval, \u017ee Rusko a Ukrajina \u201eokam\u017eit\u011b\u201c za\u010dnou jednat o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, Putin v poklidu dokon\u010dil prohl\u00eddku \u0161koly a pokra\u010doval do sv\u00e9ho bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho s\u00eddla, kde pokra\u010doval volno\u010dasov\u00fdm programem. Tak\u017ee tu prob\u011bhla dal\u0161\u00ed Putinova uk\u00e1zka Trumpovi na t\u00e9ma, kdo koho \u201em\u00e1 na h\u00e1ku\u201c, neboli kdo je tu \u201e\u0161\u00e9f\u201c, kter\u00fd je \u201enad v\u011bc\u00ed\u201c a naopak kdo se mus\u00ed sna\u017eit a podb\u00edzet (podrobn\u011bji pops\u00e1no ve v\u00fd\u0161e odkazovan\u00e9 epizod\u011b, zejm\u00e9na 02:00-09:00).<\/p>\n

Tomu odpov\u00eddal i dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj, kdy po telefon\u00e1tu si Trump op\u011bt\u00a0post\u011b\u017eoval<\/a>\u00a0na ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta, jen\u017e \u00fadajn\u011b z\u00a0n\u011bho st\u00e1le tah\u00e1 pen\u00edze (z\u0159ejm\u011b jak\u00fdmsi z\u00e1hadn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem i po ukon\u010den\u00ed americk\u00e9 podpory Ukrajin\u011b) a s\u00a0n\u00edm\u017e se Trumpovi \u0161patn\u011b jedn\u00e1. Za v\u00e1lku m\u016f\u017eou v\u00a0Trumpov\u011b pojet\u00ed Ukrajinci a s\u00e1m Zelenskyj, proto\u017ee odm\u00edtaj\u00ed kapitulovat, i kdy\u017e \u201em\u00e1 co do \u010din\u011bn\u00ed s\u00a0obrovskou arm\u00e1dou a\u00a0s n\u011bk\u00fdm odv\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm, kdo m\u00e1 skv\u011bl\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed<\/em>\u201c. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci sv\u00e9ho obl\u00edben\u00e9ho lichocen\u00ed Rus\u016fm a oslavov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich arm\u00e1dy se Trump pokusil zleh\u010dit i jejich krach na ja\u0159e 2022. V\u00a0jeho pod\u00e1n\u00ed to tehdy prob\u011bhlo pro Putina takto: \u201eKdyby se nezasekl v\u00a0bahn\u011b se sv\u00fdmi tanky v\u0161ude mo\u017en\u011b, byl by v\u00a0Kyjev\u011b asi za p\u011bt hodin.<\/em>\u201c Tedy \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 katastrofick\u00e1 chyba Putina p\u0159i posouzen\u00ed situace, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zhroucen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 logistiky, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd odpor, prost\u011b pr\u00fd na konci \u00fanora 2022 p\u0159i\u0161la \u010dasn\u00e1 obleva, je\u017e zachr\u00e1nila Kyjev.<\/p>\n

Za odm\u011bnu Rusko navrhlo ve st\u0159edu 28. kv\u011btna 2025 dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edstaven\u00ed istanbulsk\u00e9ho divadla, a to\u00a0 na 2.\u00a0\u010dervna a ve stejn\u00e9m obsazen\u00ed. Hlavn\u00edm bodem programu m\u00e1 b\u00fdt skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 sv\u00e9 po\u017eadavky tentokr\u00e1t p\u0159edlo\u017e\u00ed p\u00edsemn\u011b. P\u0159irozen\u011b lze doufat, \u017ee tentokr\u00e1t budou \u201ejin\u00e9 a lep\u0161\u00ed\u201c, \u017ee budou bl\u00ed\u017ee realit\u011b a \u017ee budou p\u0159edstavovat z\u00e1klad pro skute\u010dn\u00e9 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a nikoli pouze po\u017eadavek faktick\u00e9 kapitulace. Mo\u017en\u00e1 tato zm\u011bna nastane, jeliko\u017e Trump na Putina zatla\u010d\u00ed a ten se rad\u011bji za\u010dne chovat konstruktivn\u011b. Mo\u017en\u00e1. A mo\u017en\u00e1 tak\u00e9 ne.<\/p>\n

Dva \u0161ikulov\u00e9 anebo zoufal\u00e1 man\u017eelka?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Dosavadn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edho \u00fasil\u00ed p\u00e1n\u016f Trumpa a Witkoffa (chronologicky shrnuto po t\u0159etin\u00e1ch \u2013\u00a0prvn\u00ed<\/a>,\u00a0druh\u00e1<\/a>,\u00a0t\u0159et\u00ed<\/a>) tedy zat\u00edm p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed \u010dinnost dvou proslul\u00fdch pracant\u016f ze seri\u00e1lu \u201eA je to!<\/a>\u201c. Nikoli jen z\u00a0pohledu laika necvi\u010den\u00e9ho v \u201ed\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed deal\u016f\u201c a ve fines\u00e1ch slo\u017eit\u00e9 diplomacie, ale i z\u00a0pohledu lid\u00ed dlouhodob\u011b a zbl\u00edzka sleduj\u00edc\u00edch ruskou politiku (a nejen tu zahrani\u010dn\u00ed) pr\u016fb\u011bh vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 \u201efotbalov\u00fd z\u00e1pas dorostenc\u016f z\u00a0Tatranu St\u0159e\u0161ovice s\u00a0Realem Madrid<\/em>\u201c (zdroj citace\u00a0zde<\/a>\u00a02:00-6:00). A ano,\u00a0Tatran St\u0159e\u0161ovice<\/a>\u00a0je florbalov\u00fd klub, nikoli fotbalov\u00fd, co\u017e v\u00fdsti\u017en\u011b ilustruje \u00farove\u0148 p\u0159\u00edpravy americk\u00e9ho t\u00fdmu. Mo\u017en\u00e1 to souvis\u00ed s\u00a0jejich myln\u00fdm pocitem, \u017ee v\u00a0zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice impotentn\u00ed Biden (co\u017e nelze sv\u00e1d\u011bt na jeho v\u011bk a platilo to i pro cel\u00fd jeho t\u00fdm obsesivn\u00edch \u201edeeskal\u00e1tor\u016f\u201c, v\u010detn\u011b mnohem mlad\u0161\u00edho Blinkena) se choval jako n\u011bjak\u00fd testosteronem nabuzen\u00fd jest\u0159\u00e1b a jeho politika v\u016f\u010di Rusku byla p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 drsn\u00e1 a dominantn\u00ed, a proto je nyn\u00ed \u010das na \u201ebombardov\u00e1n\u00ed l\u00e1skou\u201c.<\/p>\n

Tento r\u016f\u017eov\u011b citliv\u00fd postoj ov\u0161em \u0161patn\u011b funguje v\u00a0kontaktu s\u00a0historicky ov\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm stylem rusk\u00e9ho vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed (viz t\u0159eba\u00a0zde<\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0zde<\/a>), kdy Rus p\u0159edem a zadarmo zasypan\u00fd dary a \u00fastupky na to nebude reagovat reciprocitou, vst\u0159\u00edcnost\u00ed nebo snad dokonce vd\u011bkem, n\u00fdbr\u017e je prost\u011b shr\u00e1bne do kapsy a bude cht\u00edt v\u00edc. A pokud jeho prot\u011bj\u0161ek d\u00e1 najevo slabost, bude m\u00edt siln\u00e9 nutk\u00e1n\u00ed jej pova\u017eovat za\u00a0hadr na podlahu. Ov\u0161em zku\u0161en\u00fd playboy Donald ur\u010dit\u011b zn\u00e1 tu v\u011b\u010dnou pravdu, \u017ee kdy\u017e se n\u011bkdo sna\u017e\u00ed c\u00edl sv\u00fdch tu\u017eeb p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 \u201euh\u00e1n\u011bt\u201c, neust\u00e1le jej bombarduje d\u00e1re\u010dky a lichotkami, tak jeho \u0161ance na \u00fasp\u011bch klesaj\u00ed, stejn\u011b jako jeho atraktivita i respekt. Tak\u017ee je \u0161ance, \u017ee se pou\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Bohu\u017eel v\u0161ak se zat\u00edm po dlouh\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce Trumpovy reakce na Putinovy obstrukce, provokace a pomysln\u00e9 facky nesly sp\u00ed\u0161e ve smyslu: \u201eM\u00e1me s\u00a0Vladim\u00edrem siln\u00fd vztah; j\u00e1 mu v\u011b\u0159\u00edm; on se te\u010f chov\u00e1 jako bl\u00e1zen, jsem z\u00a0toho \u00fapln\u011b v\u00a0\u0161oku; moc se na n\u011bj zlob\u00edm, ale odpust\u00edm mu; ud\u011blal chybu, ale on to nemysl\u00ed \u0161patn\u011b; kdyby ho jen ostatn\u00ed neprovokovali; nem\u011bl to d\u011blat, ale respektuje m\u011b; ur\u010dit\u011b by m\u011b nepodvedl; v\u0161ichni na n\u011bj dosud byli o\u0161kliv\u00ed, ale jen j\u00e1 ho ch\u00e1pu a jen j\u00e1 ho dok\u00e1\u017eu zm\u011bnit\u2026<\/em>atd.\u201c, co\u017e p\u016fsob\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b jako playboy \u010di alfa samec a v\u00edce jako submisivn\u00ed zoufal\u00e1 man\u017eelka chronicky posti\u017een\u00e1 Stockholmsk\u00fdm syndromem. A je typick\u00e9, \u017ee aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed Trumpovo na\u0159\u00edk\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee \u201ePutin se zbl\u00e1znil<\/a>\u201c,<\/em>\u00a0bylo z\u00a0Kremlu odbyto posm\u011b\u0161nou pozn\u00e1mkou, \u017ee tato slova jsou d\u016fsledkem Trumpova\u00a0\u201eemocion\u00e1ln\u00edho p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00ed<\/a><\/em>\u201c.<\/p>\n

Co bude d\u00e1l?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Postupn\u011b roste pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee Trump usoud\u00ed, \u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fd na Putina prost\u011b nezvl\u00e1dne, a z\u00a0cel\u00e9 snahy o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed vycouv\u00e1. P\u0159irozen\u011b to bude pod\u00e1no ve stylu: \u201eV\u016fbec to nen\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, v\u016fbec se m\u011b to net\u00fdk\u00e1, j\u00e1 jsem to nikdy \u0159e\u0161it necht\u011bl, to je Bidenova v\u00e1lka atd.\u201c A pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b to bude (op\u011bt) d\u00e1no za vinu Ukrajinc\u016fm, proto\u017ee dostate\u010dn\u011b neprohr\u00e1vaj\u00ed a t\u00edm v\u00e1lku prodlu\u017euj\u00ed (viz v\u00fd\u0161e). Anebo proto\u017ee dostate\u010dn\u011b nevyhr\u00e1vaj\u00ed (bl\u00ed\u017ee k\u00a0tomuto n\u00e1zorov\u00e9mu posunu viz\u00a0zde<\/a>). To v\u0161e podle \u201elogiky\u201c, \u017ee Trump sv\u00fdm \u201evyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm\u201c, kdy zkrouhl podporu Ukrajin\u011b, poskytl Rusku v\u00fdhody bez jak\u00e9koli protihodnoty a t\u00edm Rusko jednostrann\u011b zv\u00fdhodnil. V\u00a0d\u016fsledku toho se pozice Ruska zlep\u0161ila, Putin za\u010dal \u201evyhr\u00e1vat\u201c (nebo alespo\u0148 m\u00edt ten pocit), co\u017e sn\u00ed\u017eilo jeho ochotu k\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. A tedy samoz\u0159ejm\u011b za to m\u016f\u017eou Ukrajinci, proto\u017ee v\u00a0takov\u00e9 situaci dostate\u010dn\u011b nevyhr\u00e1vaj\u00ed a t\u00edm vlastn\u011b chud\u00e1ka Putina l\u00e1kaj\u00ed k\u00a0pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b dosavadn\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem Trumpova \u00fasil\u00ed je, \u017ee on s\u00e1m vypad\u00e1 m\u00e9n\u011b geni\u00e1ln\u011b, ne\u017e by si p\u0159\u00e1l. Hlavn\u011b se mu poda\u0159ilo, \u017ee z\u00a0Putinova pohledu se stal p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdm (ve sv\u00e9 jednostrann\u00e9 vst\u0159\u00edcnosti) a v\u00a0d\u016fsledku toho sice ne p\u0159\u00edmo slab\u00fdm, ale ovladateln\u00fdm a zraniteln\u00fdm. A historie ukazuje, jak se Rusov\u00e9 chovaj\u00ed k\u00a0takov\u00fdm jedinc\u016fm\u2026<\/p>\n

A tak prost\u011b telenovela m\u016f\u017ee pokra\u010dovat, dokud si Putin neu\u017eije sv\u016fj \u201ehappy ending<\/a>\u201c.<\/p>\n

Jaroslav Neveris Zamazal<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump si cht\u011bl ve sv\u00e9m seznamu \u00fakol\u016f rychle od\u0161krtnou polo\u017eku \u201ep\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b\u201c, aby…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":71818,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[3788,1060,1503,4199,102,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80310"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80310"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80310\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71818"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}