{"id":80213,"date":"2025-06-02T00:13:22","date_gmt":"2025-06-01T22:13:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=80213"},"modified":"2025-06-01T15:35:38","modified_gmt":"2025-06-01T13:35:38","slug":"zbynek-fiala-mame-doma-kybl-bublin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/06\/02\/zbynek-fiala-mame-doma-kybl-bublin\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: M\u00e1me doma k\u00fdbl bublin"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

\u2026 nemus\u00edme topit uhl\u00edm, vyzp\u011bvovala rokenrolov\u00e1 lidovka z 50. let. Dnes m\u00e1me jednu velkou realitn\u00ed bublinu, kter\u00e1 znovu ude\u0159\u00ed v podob\u011b prudk\u00e9ho n\u00e1r\u016fstu spl\u00e1tek hypot\u00e9k zhruba o p\u011btinu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nejl\u00edp jsme se m\u011bli kr\u00e1tce p\u0159ed covidem, kdy mzdy rostly a \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby se plouhaly bl\u00edzko nuly. Nevz\u00edt hypot\u00e9ku byl h\u0159\u00edch, ide\u00e1ln\u011b s\u00a0fixac\u00ed na p\u011bt let (nebo v\u00edc, ale takovou odvahu m\u011bli jenom nemnoz\u00ed). Jen\u017ee t\u011bch p\u011bt let je pry\u010d, sazby v\u00fdrazn\u011b vzrostly. Roku 2021 byla pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 sazba na 2 procentech, letos je v\u00edce jak dvakr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. D\u00e1l u\u017e nejsp\u00ed\u0161 neporoste, ale rozd\u00edl z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1. V\u0161echny dob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed smlouvy se budou muset refinancovat.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.cnb.cz\/cs\/o_cnb\/cnblog\/Refixace-a-refinancovani-hypotek-nove-odhady-dopadu-do-vydaju-domacnosti\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Kolik to bude st\u00e1t? \u010cNB zkou\u0161ela v\u00a0p\u0159edstihu odhadnout dopady takov\u00e9ho kroku u\u017e v\u00a0l\u00e9t\u011b 2023 a \u010dekala r\u016fst spl\u00e1tek p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 20 procent. Nyn\u00ed se k\u00a0t\u00e9matu vr\u00e1tila a informuje, \u017ee ve\u00a0zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch t\u0159ech \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch roku 2025 bude kon\u010dit fixace u\u00a0\u00fav\u011br\u016f se\u00a0z\u016fstatkovou hodnotou jistiny ve v\u00fd\u0161i cca\u00a0184\u00a0miliard korun<\/strong>\u00a0a s pr\u016fm\u011brnou st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbou 2,8\u00a0%, v\u00a0roce 2026 pak ve v\u00fd\u0161i\u00a0460 mld. K\u010d<\/strong>\u00a0s\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brnou sazbou 3,3\u00a0%.\u00a0V\u00a0letech 2026 a 2027 bude kon\u010dit fixace nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu objemu v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti poskytnut\u00fdch \u00fav\u011br\u016f.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, do dvou let to chyt\u00ed v\u0161ichni. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed r\u00e1nu dostanou ti, kdo za\u010dali nejv\u00edc dole. Ok\u00e9nko p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti vydr\u017eelo a\u017e do roku 2021, je\u0161t\u011b za covidu, kdy v\u0161ichni vid\u011bli posledn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost pro levn\u00e9 hypot\u00e9ky a m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstky nov\u00fdch hypot\u00e9k dosahovaly 30 miliard korun, dvojn\u00e1sobek b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho stavu. Roku 2021 dos\u00e1hl ro\u010dn\u00ed objem hypot\u00e9k 360 miliard korun, a to p\u0159i minim\u00e1ln\u00edch sazb\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 umo\u017enily s\u00e1hnout i po trochu dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed nemovitosti. Ty se tedy budou nyn\u00ed refinancovat. P\u0159ipome\u0148me, \u017ee \u010cNB pak zp\u0159\u00edsnila podm\u00ednky pro \u00favodn\u00ed vklad a p\u0159\u00edjem \u017eadatele, z\u0159ejm\u011b v\u00a0reakci na to, \u017ee spousta lid\u00ed do toho \u0161la na doraz.<\/p>\n

Roku 2022 se Rusnokovo veden\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky pustilo do prudk\u00e9ho zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sazby a\u017e na nev\u00eddan\u00fdch 7 procent. Tento boj s\u00a0ohn\u011bm p\u0159il\u00e9v\u00e1n\u00edm benz\u00ednu n\u00e1s vynesl a\u017e na horn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dku evropsk\u00e9ho infla\u010dn\u00edho \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dku. Drahota n\u00e1s vy\u010derpala v\u0161ude, zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 kdy\u017e se p\u0159idala i \u0161\u00edlen\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 politika Fialovy vl\u00e1dy (vyrob levn\u011b, prodej draho, nakupuj v z\u00e1mo\u0159\u00ed) a z\u00a0\u0159et\u011bzu se utrhly ceny potravin. Dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed hypot\u00e9ky mohou b\u00fdt pro spoustu rodin posledn\u00ed kapka.<\/p>\n

\u010cNB to posuzuje v\u00a0makroekonomick\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku, pr\u00fd nic moc. Ale makroekonomi\u00ed se nenaj\u00ed\u0161.<\/p>\n

R\u016fst n\u00e1klad\u016f na bydlen\u00ed a realitn\u00ed bublina, ze kter\u00e9 vych\u00e1z\u00ed, pat\u0159\u00ed ke zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm efekt\u016fm obrovsk\u00fdch soci\u00e1ln\u00edch nerovnost\u00ed v\u00a0zemi. Zat\u00edmco dv\u011b t\u0159etiny dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed \u017eij\u00ed tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc z\u00a0ruky do huby, existuje spole\u010densk\u00e1 vrstva, kter\u00e1 nev\u00ed, co s\u00a0pen\u011bzi. Realitn\u00ed bublina tak byl na\u0161leh\u00e1na nejen nedostatkem byt\u016f, ale \u2013 nesp\u00ed\u0161 mnohem v\u00edc \u2013 investi\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vkou po bytech bez pot\u0159eby bydlen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jinde ve sv\u011bt\u011b, kde maj\u00ed progres\u00edvn\u00ed zdan\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, je tento tlak p\u0159ecejen m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Potvrzuje to pozitivn\u00ed vliv v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho da\u0148ov\u00e9ho zat\u00ed\u017een\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, kter\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e1 neposkytne tolik pen\u011bz do rozpo\u010dtu na v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159erozd\u011blov\u00e1n\u00ed, jako zm\u00edrn\u00ed vlivy, kv\u016fli kter\u00fdm je pak pot\u0159eba do st\u00e1tn\u00ed kasy sahat .<\/p>\n

Jak se ta bublina nafukovala? Zkuste se v\u017e\u00edt do situace, kdy m\u00e1te bal\u00edk zla\u0165\u00e1k\u016f a nev\u00edte, co s\u00a0nimi. Bankovn\u00ed \u00faroky dlouho zaost\u00e1valy za inflac\u00ed, tam se dalo jen p\u0159ij\u00edt o pen\u00edze. Do akci\u00ed by \u0161li v\u00a0rozbou\u0159en\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b s\u00a0tolika technologick\u00fdmi a geopolitick\u00fdmi zvraty jen opravdov\u00ed dobrodruzi. Zato realitn\u00ed trh je jistota. A \u010d\u00edm v\u00edc do n\u011bj val\u00ed voln\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu na pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9 \u201einvesti\u010dn\u00ed byty\u201c, t\u00edm je r\u016fst cen na realitn\u00edm trhu rychlej\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e jsou dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed byty, jsou dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed i n\u00e1jmy. Podle \u010cesk\u00e9ho statistick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu vzrostly roku 2023 n\u00e1klady dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed na bydlen\u00ed o 21,7 procenta. Dom\u00e1cnosti, kter\u00e9 bydl\u00ed v\u00a0n\u00e1jmu, zaplatily za bydlen\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b p\u0159es 30 procent sv\u00fdch \u010dist\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f. Ale p\u016fl milionu slab\u0161\u00edch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed st\u00e1lo bydlen\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 40 procent \u010dist\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/statistikaamy.csu.gov.cz\/kolik-platime-za-bydleni<\/a><\/p>\n

V\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru to vy\u017eadovalo 12\u00a0300 korun m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b, ale je v\u00a0tom v\u0161echno, i elekt\u0159ina a plyn, kter\u00e9 spolykaly 72 procent z\u00a0t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1stky. Statistici tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee nejde o kardin\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9m, v\u00a0n\u00e1jmu \u017eije jen p\u011btina dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. My si to vylo\u017e\u00edme tak, \u017ee n\u00e1jmy bij\u00ed v\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase, zat\u00edmco refinancovan\u00e9 hypot\u00e9ky ude\u0159\u00ed o n\u011bco pozd\u011bji a prodlou\u017e\u00ed r\u00e1ny do budoucnosti. Kdo bydl\u00ed ve vlastn\u00edm dom\u011b, ten se zase d\u011bs\u00ed cen materi\u00e1l\u016f a slu\u017eeb p\u0159i oprav\u00e1ch. Av\u0161ak drahou elekt\u0159inu a plyn plat\u00edme v\u0161ichni.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br je proto jedin\u00fd: n\u00e1klady bydlen\u00ed rostly ostudn\u00fdm tempem a s\u00a0hypot\u00e9kou to je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159itvrd\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ceny byt\u016f u\u017e jsou neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9. Pra\u017esk\u00fd byt 2+1 s pr\u016fm\u011brnou plochou 55 m\u00b2 stoj\u00ed v novostavb\u011b 8,69 milionu K\u010d, zat\u00edmco star\u0161\u00ed byt stejn\u00e9 kategorie 7,21 milionu K\u010d, jak mi vyhledala ve statistik\u00e1ch um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence. Na pouh\u00fd jeden metr \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00ed mal\u00e9ho nov\u00e9ho bytu v\u00a0Praze tak pot\u0159ebujete 158 tis\u00edc korun. Jak se tam ta hodnota d\u00e1 naprat? Co v\u0161echno mus\u00ed b\u00fdt ze zlata?<\/p>\n

Kdybyste cht\u011bli 3+1 se 75 metry \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edmi, vyjde v\u00e1s t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na 12 milion\u016f. Pro zaj\u00edmavost, roku 2015 byste za stejn\u00fd metr zaplatili polovinu. Za deset let vysko\u010dily ceny nemovitost\u00ed v\u00a0Praze o 100 procent, a v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho roku o dal\u0161\u00edch zhruba 16 procent, p\u0159itom v\u00a0Praze 7 (je tam velk\u00fd rozvoj a Stromovka) o 26 procent.<\/p>\n

Kdo tedy nikdy nevid\u011bl cenovou bublinu, a\u0165 zajede do Prahy a pod\u00edv\u00e1 se z\u00a0okna. Lze to vyj\u00e1d\u0159it i jinak, za cenu jednoho nov\u00e9ho t\u0159\u00edpokoj\u00e1ku v\u00a0Praze lze koupit v\u00a0\u010cesk\u00fdch Bud\u011bjovic\u00edch skoro t\u0159i star\u0161\u00ed stejn\u011b velk\u00e9 byty a ve Strakonic\u00edch \u010dty\u0159i.<\/p>\n

Konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed dopady na rodinn\u00e9 rozpo\u010dty ukazuje anal\u00fdza spl\u00e1tek za byt 3+1 v Praze p\u0159i financov\u00e1n\u00ed 80 procent hodnoty hypot\u00e9kou se splatnost\u00ed 25 let. U nov\u00e9ho bytu vzrostla m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed spl\u00e1tka z 20 895 K\u010d v roce 2015 na 53 774 K\u010d v roce 2025, na co\u017e by nesta\u010dila ani jedna cel\u00e1 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 mzda. A \u017ee ji m\u00e1 jen horn\u00ed t\u0159etina! U star\u0161\u00edho bytu je situace m\u00edrn\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed se spl\u00e1tkou ve v\u00fd\u0161i 92,9 procenta pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 mzdy\u2026<\/p>\n

Zhor\u0161en\u00ed dostupnosti byt\u016f je tedy dramatick\u00e9 – pod\u00edl spl\u00e1tky na pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 mzd\u011b vzrostl u nov\u00fdch byt\u016f o 33,4 procentn\u00edho bodu a u star\u0161\u00edch byt\u016f o 23,6 procentn\u00edho bodu. Tyto hodnoty v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00ed doporu\u010den\u00fd maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed pod\u00edl 30-40 procent \u010dist\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edjmu na spl\u00e1tky \u00fav\u011br\u016f.<\/p>\n

S r\u016fstem n\u00e1klad\u016f na bydlen\u00ed do\u0161lo rovn\u011b\u017e ke zhor\u0161en\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto n\u00e1klad\u016f coby z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee rodinn\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu. Zat\u00edmco v roce 2022 vn\u00edmalo n\u00e1klady na bydlen\u00ed jako velkou z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e 17,8 % dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, v roce 2023 pod\u00edl t\u011bchto dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed vzrostl na 21,2 %. Nejv\u00edce poci\u0165ovaly velkou z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e n\u00e1klady na bydlen\u00ed dom\u00e1cnosti v n\u00e1jemn\u00edm bydlen\u00ed, a to t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 35 % z\u00a0nich, konstatuj\u00ed v magaz\u00ednu Statistika a my.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee: Drahota bydlen\u00ed je naka\u017eliv\u00e1, \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed se shora. Dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed hypot\u00e9ky pro nemnoh\u00e9 se nakonec prom\u00edtnou do v\u0161ech n\u00e1jm\u016f. Realitn\u00ed bublina vznikla z\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9 da\u0148ov\u00e9 divo\u010diny, kter\u00e1 zesiluje vliv vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f na cenovou hladinu, a z\u00a0nedostatku investi\u010dn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed. Pro drtivou v\u011bt\u0161inu mlad\u00fdch p\u00e1r\u016f je z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed bytu a zalo\u017een\u00ed rodiny ne\u0159e\u0161iteln\u00fd probl\u00e9m. Dostupn\u00e9 bydlen\u00ed pat\u0159\u00ed k\u00a0nejnal\u00e9hav\u011bj\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016fm sou\u010dasnosti.<\/p>\n

A je\u0161t\u011b nikdy tu nebyla tak asoci\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1da, kter\u00e1 tyto probl\u00e9my nedok\u00e1\u017ee ani vn\u00edmat.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2026 nemus\u00edme topit uhl\u00edm, vyzp\u011bvovala rokenrolov\u00e1 lidovka z 50. let. Dnes m\u00e1me jednu velkou realitn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":80214,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,59,45],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80213"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80213"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80213\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80214"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}