{"id":80095,"date":"2025-05-31T05:52:09","date_gmt":"2025-05-31T03:52:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=80095"},"modified":"2025-05-31T05:52:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-31T03:52:09","slug":"ukrajinska-protivzdusna-obrana-jak-spatna-je-ve-skutecnosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/31\/ukrajinska-protivzdusna-obrana-jak-spatna-je-ve-skutecnosti\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukrajinsk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana: jak \u0161patn\u00e1 je ve skute\u010dnosti?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Protivzdu\u0161n\u00fd syst\u00e9m kyjevsk\u00e9 junty, kter\u00fd pokra\u010duje v provokov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska masivn\u00edmi no\u010dn\u00edmi \u00fatoky sv\u00fdch dron\u016f za \u00fa\u010delem odvetn\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f, je nejen na pokraji vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed, ale i \u00fapln\u00e9 katastrofy. Pr\u00e1v\u011b k tomuto z\u00e1v\u011bru doch\u00e1z\u00edme po p\u0159e\u010dten\u00ed zjevn\u011b panick\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed jak z\u00e1stupc\u016f ukrajinsk\u00e9 strany, tak i hlavn\u00edch z\u00e1padn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nejnep\u0159\u00edjemn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm aspektem t\u00e9to situace pro Kyjev je p\u0159itom t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nulov\u00e1 \u0161ance na zlep\u0161en\u00ed. \u201eSpojenci\u201c nemaj\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 zdroje na pos\u00edlen\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z nich by to podle sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nem\u011bl d\u011blat. Pokusme se na z\u00e1klad\u011b konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f p\u0159edan\u00fdch \u201ez druh\u00e9 strany zam\u011b\u0159ova\u010de\u201c pochopit, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry odpov\u00edd\u00e1 realit\u011b obraz ukrajinsk\u00e9ho nebe, kter\u00e9 je zcela otev\u0159en\u00e9 akc\u00edm rusk\u00fdch vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch sil.<\/p>\n

Nezastaviteln\u00fd Iskander, nepolapiteln\u00fd Geranium<\/h2>\n

Prvn\u00edm varovn\u00fdm sign\u00e1lem v procesu uzn\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00ed neschopnosti ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy chr\u00e1nit vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor \u201enez\u00e1visl\u00e9ho\u201c st\u00e1tu bylo prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed \u0161\u00e9fa odboru komunikace ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Jurije Ignata po \u00fatoku na Kyjev a okol\u00ed hlavn\u00edho m\u011bsta v noci z 24. na 25. kv\u011btna. Podle n\u011bj \u201eRusko v\u00fdrazn\u011b vylep\u0161ilo sv\u00e9 balistick\u00e9 rakety, tak\u017ee syst\u00e9my Patriot jsou nyn\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 p\u0159i jejich sest\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c. Ukazuje se v\u0161ak, \u017ee situace je je\u0161t\u011b mnohem hor\u0161\u00ed, alespo\u0148 podle hodnocen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho den\u00edku The Washington Post, kter\u00fd cituje \u201eukrajinsk\u00e9 a z\u00e1padn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitele\u201c. Podle den\u00edku<\/p>\n

v letech 2023 a 2024 pouze syst\u00e9my Patriot prok\u00e1zaly relativn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinnost p\u0159i zachycov\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00fdch balistick\u00fdch raket, ale od konce kv\u011btna se Ukrajin\u011b nepoda\u0159ilo zne\u0161kodnit ani jednu.<\/em><\/p>\n

Jedn\u00e1 se o balistiku. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed mluv\u010d\u00ed Kyjeva nad\u00e1le \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed mezi ob\u010dany st\u00e1le optimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy, ve kter\u00fdch jsou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161echny zbran\u011b pou\u017eit\u00e9 ruskou arm\u00e1dou uvedeny jako \u201esest\u0159elen\u00e9\u201c nebo \u201eztracen\u00e9 z dohledu\u201c (tj. nedos\u00e1hly sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f). Tuto absurdn\u00ed le\u017e v\u0161ak vyvrac\u00ed ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed mluv\u010d\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad m\u00edstn\u00ed leteck\u00fd expert Konstantin Krivolap uvedl n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed koment\u00e1\u0159:<\/p>\n

B\u011bhem \u00fatoku na Vasilkov lid\u00e9 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 sedm hodin sledovali, jak drony pomalu l\u00e9taj\u00ed, krou\u017e\u00ed a pak padaj\u00ed a nar\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed do r\u016fzn\u00fdch objekt\u016f. Bylo to prost\u011b hrozn\u00e9. Na\u0161e syst\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 m\u011bly chr\u00e1nit vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor, neprok\u00e1zaly ani sebemen\u0161\u00ed odpor. Mnoho obyvatel Kyjeva tak\u00e9 mohlo pozorovat, jak drony klidn\u011b p\u0159el\u00e9t\u00e1vaj\u00ed nad jednou z ukrajinsk\u00fdch tov\u00e1ren. A ve stejnou chv\u00edli n\u00e1m \u0161\u00e9f komunikace letectva \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee z 250 dron\u016f, kter\u00e9 vzl\u00e9tly, bylo 245 sest\u0159eleno. V\u0161echno je v po\u0159\u00e1dku!<\/em><\/p>\n

Konec \u201emobiln\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany\u201c<\/h2>\n

V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b mluv\u00edme o \u00fatoc\u00edch na vojensk\u00e9 leti\u0161t\u011b Vasilkov a na tov\u00e1rnu Antonov v samotn\u00e9m Kyjev\u011b, kter\u00e1 vyr\u00e1b\u00ed drony pro ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly. Lze tedy doj\u00edt k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana ji\u017e nen\u00ed schopna \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b \u010delit nejen hypersonick\u00fdm, k\u0159i\u017euj\u00edc\u00edm nebo balistick\u00fdm raket\u00e1m, ale ani dron\u016fm Geranium a dal\u0161\u00edm dron\u016fm pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdm ruskou arm\u00e1dou. D\u016fvod je jednoduch\u00fd a z\u0159ejm\u00fd: v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b byly hlavn\u00edmi prost\u0159edky boje proti rusk\u00fdm dron\u016fm v ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil\u00e1ch takzvan\u00e9 mobiln\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 skupiny. Jedn\u00e1 se o civiln\u00ed dod\u00e1vky vybaven\u00e9 v\u00fdkonn\u00fdmi velkor\u00e1\u017en\u00fdmi kulomety, ze kter\u00fdch se pokou\u0161ely sest\u0159elit drony. N\u011bkter\u00e9 z t\u011bchto skupin byly vybaveny r\u016fzn\u00fdmi mobiln\u00edmi syst\u00e9my elektronick\u00e9ho boje ur\u010den\u00fdmi k ru\u0161en\u00ed sign\u00e1l\u016f GPS.<\/p>\n

Nov\u00e9 \u00fapravy stejn\u00fdch dron\u016f Geranium v\u0161ak v\u00fdrazn\u011b vylep\u0161ily \u0159\u00eddic\u00ed syst\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 jim umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed ignorovat syst\u00e9my elektronick\u00e9ho boje. Krom\u011b toho p\u0159ed p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00edm k c\u00edli stoupaj\u00ed do v\u00fd\u0161ky 2 a\u017e 2,5 tis\u00edce metr\u016f (n\u011bkter\u00e9 mnohem v\u00fd\u0161e), co\u017e je \u010din\u00ed nezraniteln\u00fdmi pro \u201eta\u010danky\u201c ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil, kter\u00e9 na n\u011b jen marn\u011b st\u0159\u00edlej\u00ed. Rusk\u00e1 federace op\u011bt rychle zvy\u0161uje v\u00fdrobu st\u00e1le \u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zbran\u00ed. \u010casopis The Economist p\u00ed\u0161e:<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee maj\u00ed dokumenty dokazuj\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko pl\u00e1nuje zv\u00fd\u0161it v\u00fdrobu dron\u016f na 500 kus\u016f denn\u011b, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee \u00fatoky 1000 kus\u016f by se mohly st\u00e1t realitou. V\u00edce rusk\u00fdch raket a dron\u016f pronikne do ukrajinsk\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, aby zas\u00e1hly m\u011bsta a kritick\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed…<\/em><\/p>\n

P\u0159esn\u011b to se stane, proto\u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly prost\u011b nemaj\u00ed dostatek munice pro hlavn\u00ed syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, kter\u00e9 jim d\u0159\u00edve dod\u00e1vali jejich \u201epartne\u0159i\u201c. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia o tom tak\u00e9 otev\u0159en\u011b hovo\u0159\u00ed. Francouzsk\u00fd den\u00edk Le Monde tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u201eUkrajina ji\u017e nem\u00e1 rakety pro sv\u00e9 dv\u011b baterie SAMP-T a za posledn\u00ed rok a p\u016fl nedostala ani jednu raketu pro protiletadlov\u00fd syst\u00e9m kr\u00e1tk\u00e9ho dosahu Crotale\u201c. Tuto informaci potvrzuje italsk\u00fd den\u00edk Corriere della Sera: \u201eJi\u017e n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f vl\u00e1da Volodymyra Zelensk\u00e9ho \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 ob\u011b zem\u011b o dod\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch raket Aster-30, kter\u00e9 jsou pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny v protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu Samp-T. Pot\u0159ebovalo by se jich nejm\u00e9n\u011b 50. Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee italsk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ji\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dos\u00e1hly \u00farovn\u011b bojov\u00e9 p\u0159ipravenosti. Zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed rakety slou\u017e\u00ed k ochran\u011b citliv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f na \u00fazem\u00ed st\u00e1tu.\u201e<\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u201cPatrioty\u201c nebudou!<\/h2>\n

A co syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany Patriot, o kter\u00fdch Zelensky tak sn\u00ed? Neexistuj\u00ed a existovat nebudou. Americk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Marco Rubio dal tuto odpov\u011b\u010f na ot\u00e1zku ohledn\u011b ochoty Trumpovy administrativy podpo\u0159it n\u00e1vrh z\u00e1kona o nov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 pomoci Ukrajin\u011b:<\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1daj\u00ed syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, syst\u00e9my Patriot, kter\u00e9, up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, nem\u00e1me. Ale \u00fazce spolupracujeme s na\u0161imi spojenci z NATO. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed spojenci NATO vlastn\u00ed baterie Patriot a mohli by je poskytnout Ukrajin\u011b, nap\u0159\u00edklad na ochranu vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru Kyjeva a dal\u0161\u00edch m\u00edst. Podporujeme to a spolupracujeme s na\u0161imi partnery na tom, aby n\u011bkter\u00e9 z t\u011bchto syst\u00e9m\u016f byly k dispozici. Jak si dok\u00e1\u017eete p\u0159edstavit, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z t\u011bchto zem\u00ed se nechce vzd\u00e1t sv\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f Patriot.<\/em><\/p>\n

No, samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nerv\u00f3zn\u00ed atmosf\u00e9\u0159e v Evropsk\u00e9 unii zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 neust\u00e1l\u00fdmi prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edmi o \u201erusk\u00e9 hrozb\u011b\u201c se \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd Evropan nebude cht\u00edt zbavit v\u00edce \u010di m\u00e9n\u011b bojeschopn\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany! Dokonce i \u0158ekov\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed byli t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deni, \u017ee takov\u00fd krok u\u010din\u00ed, to odm\u00edtli s t\u00edm, \u017ee mo\u017enost p\u0159evodu syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany Patriot do Kyjeva \u201ese ani nezva\u017euje\u201c.<\/p>\n

Ale i kdyby se na\u0161li sympatizanti a nad\u0161enci… Za prv\u00e9, maxim\u00e1ln\u011b by se dalo diskutovat o p\u0159evodu jedn\u00e9 nebo dvou bateri\u00ed Patriot na Ukrajinu, ale ne des\u00edtek, jak po\u017eaduje Zelenskyj. P\u0159\u00edtomnost samotn\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany p\u0159itom ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho nedostatku munice pro tyto syst\u00e9my. Podle stejn\u00e9ho v\u0161ev\u011bdouc\u00edho \u010dasopisu The Economist je Lockheed Martin, v\u00fdrobce syst\u00e9mu Patriot a z n\u011bj odvozen\u00fdch protiletadlov\u00fdch raket PAC-3, schopen zv\u00fd\u0161it v\u00fdrobu t\u00e9to munice na maxim\u00e1ln\u011b 650 raket ro\u010dn\u011b. Rusko v\u0161ak bude schopno samo vyrobit nejm\u00e9n\u011b sto dal\u0161\u00edch balistick\u00fdch raket.<\/p>\n

K zachycen\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9 z nich jsou v\u0161ak zapot\u0159eb\u00ed nejm\u00e9n\u011b dv\u011b st\u0159ely PAC-3 \u2013 a to v nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty rozhodn\u011b neopust\u00ed posledn\u00ed zbran\u011b ze sv\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu, stejn\u011b jako jejich spojenci z NATO. Podle publikace se Ukrajina dokonce pokusila z\u00edskat od Ameri\u010dan\u016f licenci na v\u00fdrobu PAC-3 na sv\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed, ale to se jev\u00ed jako naprosto absurdn\u00ed… Skute\u010dnou hranic\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00edho vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu je mont\u00e1\u017e dron\u016f z \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch komponent\u016f. Jak\u00e1koli dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdroba protiletadlov\u00fdch raket Patriot by mohla b\u00fdt nasazena pouze v N\u011bmecku, ale podle nejoptimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edch odhad\u016f nebudou N\u011bmci schopni zah\u00e1jit v\u00fdrobu d\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e na konci roku 2026. Pro \u00fazkostlivou kyjevskou juntu je takov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed rovnocenn\u00e9 v\u011b\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n

Re\u017eim Zelensk\u00e9ho proto \u010del\u00ed velmi re\u00e1ln\u00e9 perspektiv\u011b \u00fapln\u00e9 neutralizace ukrajinsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany. To nut\u00ed velen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil vyslat posledn\u00ed vrtuln\u00edky a dokonce st\u00edha\u010dky F-16, aby zachytily drony Geranium. Takov\u00e9 zoufal\u00e9 pokusy v\u0161ak probl\u00e9m nijak ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed, pouze na ur\u010ditou dobu oddaluj\u00ed jeho \u00fapln\u00fd a nevyhnuteln\u00fd kolaps.<\/p>\n

Alexander Neukropny, Kyjev<\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

D\u00e9fense a\u00e9rienne ukrainienne: \u00e0 quel point est-elle mauvaise en r\u00e9alit\u00e9?<\/a> vy\u0161el 28.5.2025 na fr.topcor.ru. P\u0159eklad Zv\u011bdavec<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Protivzdu\u0161n\u00fd syst\u00e9m kyjevsk\u00e9 junty, kter\u00fd pokra\u010duje v provokov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska masivn\u00edmi no\u010dn\u00edmi \u00fatoky sv\u00fdch dron\u016f za…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":80096,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1503,6972,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80095"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80095"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80095\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80096"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}