{"id":79988,"date":"2025-05-30T00:24:37","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T22:24:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=79988"},"modified":"2025-05-29T14:43:41","modified_gmt":"2025-05-29T12:43:41","slug":"veda-jako-zbran-klimatologicti-vedci-priznavaji-nevedomost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/30\/veda-jako-zbran-klimatologicti-vedci-priznavaji-nevedomost\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u011bda jako zbra\u0148: Klimatologi\u010dt\u00ed v\u011bdci p\u0159izn\u00e1vaj\u00ed nev\u011bdomost"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Klimatologie m\u00e1 probl\u00e9m s poctivost\u00ed. Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd koment\u00e1\u0159 v renomovan\u00e9m \u010dasopise Nature p\u0159\u00edkladn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem ukazuje, jak se politick\u00e1 jistota konstruuje z v\u011bdeck\u00e9 nejistoty. Auto\u0159i Adam Sobel a Kerry Emanuel ve sv\u00e9 anal\u00fdze rizik hurik\u00e1n\u016f otev\u0159en\u011b p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee mnoho v\u011bc\u00ed nev\u011bd\u00ed \u2013 p\u0159esto v\u0161ak vyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed k okam\u017eit\u00e9 akci.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Koment\u00e1\u0159 v \u010dasopise Nature s n\u00e1zvem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201eRiziko hurik\u00e1n\u016f v m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edm se klimatu \u2013 role nejistoty\u201c , publikovan\u00fd v kv\u011btnu 2025,\u00a0za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 pozoruhodn\u00fdm p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00edm: \u201eJe tak\u00e9 mnoho v\u011bc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nev\u00edme\u201c o dopadu klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn na hurik\u00e1ny. Tato zd\u00e1nliv\u00e1 v\u011bdeck\u00e1 skromnost se v\u0161ak rychle uk\u00e1\u017ee jako r\u00e9torick\u00fd prost\u0159edek. Auto\u0159i m\u00edsto toho, aby s nev\u011bdomost\u00ed zach\u00e1zeli jako s d\u016fvodem neochoty, ji transformuj\u00ed v p\u00e1ku pro zv\u00fd\u0161enou intervenci, jak poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 i Charles Rotter na klimatick\u00e9m port\u00e1lu \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Co se s t\u00edm d\u011bje<\/span><\/a> ?\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed teze zn\u00ed: \u201eObecn\u011b plat\u00ed, \u017ee nejistota zvy\u0161uje riziko.\u201c Toto tvrzen\u00ed zn\u00ed zpo\u010d\u00e1tku v\u011brohodn\u011b, ale p\u0159i bli\u017e\u0161\u00edm zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed se uk\u00e1\u017ee jako tautologie. V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nejistota automaticky nezvy\u0161uje skute\u010dn\u00e9 riziko \u2013 pouze roz\u0161i\u0159uje \u0161k\u00e1lu mo\u017en\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f. V zpolitizovan\u00e9 klimatologii je v\u0161ak tento rozsah systematicky interpretov\u00e1n ve prosp\u011bch nejhor\u0161\u00edch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Selektivn\u00ed jistoty a m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se narativy<\/span><\/h3>\n

Zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm Sobel a Emanuel strukturuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 argumenty, je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdmluvn\u00fd. Uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 faktory rizika hurik\u00e1nu \u201ezhruba v sestupn\u00e9m po\u0159ad\u00ed podle jistoty\u201c \u2013 r\u00e9torick\u00fd trik, kter\u00fd nazna\u010duje hierarchii d\u016fv\u011bryhodnosti, ani\u017e by zpr\u016fhled\u0148oval skute\u010dn\u00e9 nejistoty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Auto\u0159i jsou st\u00e1le optimisti\u010dt\u00ed ohledn\u011b mno\u017estv\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek: v\u011bdci si jsou jisti, \u017ee sr\u00e1\u017eky zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 hurik\u00e1ny se v teplej\u0161\u00edm klimatu zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee \u201ev teplej\u0161\u00ed atmosf\u00e9\u0159e se m\u016f\u017ee udr\u017eet v\u00edce vodn\u00ed p\u00e1ry\u201c. Tento teoretick\u00fd poznatek v\u0161ak nen\u00ed kvantifikov\u00e1n ani vysv\u011btlen, jak se toto zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed prom\u00edt\u00e1 do m\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch \u0161kod \u2013 zejm\u00e9na s ohledem na vylep\u0161enou infrastrukturu a prognostick\u00e9 syst\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o \u010detnost bou\u0159\u00ed, auto\u0159i jsou mnohem opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: \u201eV\u00fdzkumn\u00edci zat\u00edm pln\u011b nech\u00e1pou, co \u0159\u00edd\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010detnost hurik\u00e1n\u016f, a modely produkuj\u00ed protich\u016fdn\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi.\u201c M\u00edsto aby tuto z\u00e1sadn\u00ed mezeru ve znalostech vn\u00edmali jako d\u016fvod politick\u00e9 neochoty, pono\u0159uj\u00ed se hloub\u011bji do slo\u017eitosti, zjevn\u011b v nad\u011bji, \u017ee zmatek zamaskuje slabinu jejich argumentu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Protich\u016fdn\u00e1 vysv\u011btlen\u00ed stejn\u00e9ho trendu<\/span><\/h3>\n

Diskuse o n\u00e1r\u016fstu aktivity hurik\u00e1n\u016f v Atlantiku je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdmluvn\u00e1. Auto\u0159i uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee tento trend je \u201esp\u00ed\u0161e reakc\u00ed na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ovzdu\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e na zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed hladiny sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f\u201c. Toto tvrzen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo odporuje b\u011b\u017en\u00e9mu n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee hlavn\u00edm vin\u00edkem je CO\u2082. P\u0159esto tyto znalosti pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed pouze k tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee n\u00e1r\u016fst hurik\u00e1n\u016f je skute\u010dn\u00fd \u2013 i kdy\u017e \u00fadajnou p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou je n\u011bkdo jin\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysv\u011btlen\u00ed aerosolov\u00fdch efekt\u016f odhaluje sv\u00e9volnost argumentu.\u00a0<\/span>Jak potvrzuj\u00ed n\u011bme\u010dt\u00ed klimatologi\u010dt\u00ed v\u011bdci<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kontrola zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ovzdu\u0161\u00ed vedla k men\u0161\u00edmu mno\u017estv\u00ed reflexn\u00edch \u010d\u00e1stic v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e, co\u017e m\u011blo za n\u00e1sledek teplej\u0161\u00ed oce\u00e1ny. Auto\u0159i doch\u00e1zej\u00ed k z\u00e1v\u011bru: Pokud je toto vysv\u011btlen\u00ed spr\u00e1vn\u00e9, ned\u00e1vn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst intenzity hurik\u00e1n\u016f v Atlantiku pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebude pokra\u010dovat, ale n\u00edzk\u00e1 hurik\u00e1nov\u00e1 aktivita ze 70. a 80. let se tak\u00e9 nebude opakovat. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, a\u0165 se stane cokoli, autorova teze z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 platn\u00e1. Pokud padne hlava, vyhr\u00e1vaj\u00ed, ale pokud padne orel, prohr\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u0161ichni ostatn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Modely versus realita<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u010cl\u00e1nek dosahuje vrcholu v\u011bdeck\u00e9ho zmatku, kdy\u017e se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 klimatick\u00fdmi modely. Auto\u0159i p\u00ed\u0161\u00ed: \u201eModely zemsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed, \u017ee sklen\u00edkov\u00e9 plyny budou m\u00edt tendenci d\u00e1le zvy\u0161ovat teploty v rovn\u00edkov\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti v\u00fdchodn\u00edho Pacifiku\u2026 To je v souladu s o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm n\u00edzk\u00e9 aktivity hurik\u00e1n\u016f v Atlantiku v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch desetilet\u00edch.\u201c Nicm\u00e9n\u011b bezprost\u0159edn\u011b pot\u00e9 n\u00e1sleduje: \u201ePozorov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ak m\u00edsto toho uk\u00e1zala opak.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

V jak\u00e9koli jin\u00e9 v\u011bdeck\u00e9 oblasti by takov\u00fd rozpor mezi modelov\u00fdmi p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010fmi a realitou vedl k z\u00e1sadn\u00edmu p\u0159ezkoum\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edpoklad\u016f. V klimatologii je to z\u0159ejm\u011b jen dal\u0161\u00ed odstavec. A\u010dkoli\u00a0<\/span>odborn\u00edci jako Mojib Latif<\/span><\/a>\u00a0potvrzuj\u00ed souvislost mezi oteplov\u00e1n\u00edm oce\u00e1n\u016f a intenzitou hurik\u00e1n\u016f, z\u00e1kladn\u00ed probl\u00e9my s p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1n\u00edm z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nevy\u0159e\u0161eny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Politick\u00e9 divadlo s v\u011bdeck\u00fdmi rekvizitami<\/span><\/h3>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br koment\u00e1\u0159e v Nature odhaluje skute\u010dnou podstatu tohoto cvi\u010den\u00ed: \u201eN\u00e1\u0161 celkov\u00fd n\u00e1zor je, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed hurik\u00e1n\u016f v USA je v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e dlouhodob\u00fd historick\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br\u201c kv\u016fli \u201edob\u0159e pochopen\u00fdm faktor\u016fm, kter\u00e9 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed zvy\u0161uj\u00ed, a \u0161patn\u011b pochopen\u00fdm faktor\u016fm, kter\u00e9 ho zv\u00fd\u0161it mohou\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed je pozoruhodn\u011b up\u0159\u00edmn\u00e9 ve sv\u00e9 neup\u0159\u00edmnosti. Auto\u0159i p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee nev\u011bd\u00ed, co nev\u011bd\u00ed, ale p\u0159esto po\u017eaduj\u00ed, abychom se chovali, jako bychom to v\u011bd\u011bli. To u\u017e nen\u00ed empirick\u00e1 v\u011bda, ale mor\u00e1ln\u00ed divadlo s recenzovan\u00fdmi rekvizitami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00e9 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Probl\u00e9m nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v samotn\u00fdch bou\u0159\u00edch, ale v politick\u00fdch v\u011btrech, kter\u00e9 je n\u00e1sleduj\u00ed. Kdy\u017e v\u011bdci prom\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed slo\u017eit\u00e9, \u0161patn\u011b pochopen\u00e9 a region\u00e1ln\u011b rozmanit\u00e9 jevy, jako je \u010detnost hurik\u00e1n\u016f, v politick\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje, podkop\u00e1vaj\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru v samotnou v\u011bdu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Index\u00a0<\/span>klimatick\u00fdch rizik z roku 2025<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ukazuje, \u017ee extr\u00e9mn\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed ji\u017e dnes zp\u016fsobuje zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody, proto\u017ee v d\u016fsledku popula\u010dn\u00edho r\u016fstu \u017eije st\u00e1le v\u00edce lid\u00ed ve zraniteln\u00fdch oblastech, kter\u00fdm se d\u0159\u00edve lid\u00e9 vyh\u00fdbali. Ale m\u00edsto up\u0159\u00edmn\u00e9 diskuse o mez\u00edch znalost\u00ed a v\u00fdvoji vhodn\u00fdch adapta\u010dn\u00edch strategi\u00ed se nejistota pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 jako zbra\u0148 k dosa\u017een\u00ed politick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00e9 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed pro spole\u010dnost nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch sil\u00e1ch, kter\u00fdm pln\u011b nerozum\u00edme, ale ve v\u011bd\u011b, kter\u00e1 ob\u011btuje svou d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost kv\u016fli kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9mu politick\u00e9mu zisku. Kdy\u017e se \u201enev\u00edm\u201c stane ospravedln\u011bn\u00edm pro \u201emus\u00ed\u0161 poslechnout\u201c, je dosa\u017eeno konce racion\u00e1ln\u00ed debaty.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Klimatologie m\u00e1 probl\u00e9m s poctivost\u00ed. Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd koment\u00e1\u0159 v renomovan\u00e9m \u010dasopise Nature p\u0159\u00edkladn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem ukazuje, jak…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79989,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[873,1503,497,1156],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79988"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79988"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79988\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79989"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}