{"id":79967,"date":"2025-05-30T00:13:08","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T22:13:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=79967"},"modified":"2025-05-29T11:49:11","modified_gmt":"2025-05-29T09:49:11","slug":"obrana-evropy-bez-usa-co-odhaluje-nova-zprava-iiss-o-nakladech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/30\/obrana-evropy-bez-usa-co-odhaluje-nova-zprava-iiss-o-nakladech\/","title":{"rendered":"Obrana Evropy bez USA: Co odhaluje nov\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va IISS o n\u00e1kladech"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><span>Vystoupen\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f z NATO by zanechalo v evropsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b zna\u010dnou mezeru. Renomovan\u00fd Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed institut pro strategick\u00e1 studia (IISS) v Lond\u00fdn\u011b publikoval podn\u011btnou zpr\u00e1vu s n\u00e1zvem\u00a0<\/span><em><span>\u201eObrana Evropy bez Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f: N\u00e1klady a d\u016fsledky<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0\u201c. IISS byl zalo\u017een v roce 1958 a je zn\u00e1m\u00fd sv\u00fdmi anal\u00fdzami glob\u00e1ln\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch a obrann\u00fdch ot\u00e1zek, kter\u00e9 pravideln\u011b cituj\u00ed NATO, OSN a ministerstva obrany jednotliv\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Zpr\u00e1vu napsali Ben Barry, Douglas Barrie, Henry Boyd, Nick Childs, Michael Gjerstad, James Hackett, Fenella McGerty, Ben Schreer a Tom Waldwyn. Hlavn\u00ed sd\u011blen\u00ed: Pokud by USA vystoupily z NATO, evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b by musely v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 25 letech shrom\u00e1\u017edit\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b jeden bilion americk\u00fdch dolar\u016f<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0\u2013 co\u017e by znamenalo v\u00fddaje na obranu ve v\u00fd\u0161i p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>3 procent HDP<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>Kolik by to p\u0159esn\u011b st\u00e1lo?<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Podle sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>50 % n\u00e1klad\u016f jde na vojensk\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed (tanky, letadla, lod\u011b, bezpilotn\u00ed letouny atd.),<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>25 % ve zpravodajsk\u00fdch zdroj\u00edch, vesm\u00edru a velitelsk\u00fdch struktur\u00e1ch,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>20 % na person\u00e1l, \u0161kolen\u00ed a logistiku,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>15 % v pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 kapacit\u011b a zahrani\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1kupech.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>\u010c\u00edsla vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z \u00fapln\u00e9ho sta\u017een\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>128 000 americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f a jejich vybaven\u00ed do roku 2027<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>Dv\u011b hlavn\u00ed hrozby pro Evropu<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Dvaat\u0159icetist\u00e1nkov\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va identifikuje dv\u011b kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 rizika:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong><span>Rusko<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0:<\/span><br \/>\n<span>\u201eRusk\u00e1 ekonomika se p\u0159em\u011bnila na v\u00e1le\u010dnou ekonomiku a jej\u00ed zbrojn\u00ed pr\u016fmysl b\u011b\u017e\u00ed na pln\u00e9 obr\u00e1tky. I s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm na Ukrajin\u011b by Moskva mohla znovu obr\u00e1tit svou arm\u00e1du proti Evrop\u011b.\u201c<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>USA se zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na tichomo\u0159sk\u00fd region<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0:<\/span><br \/>\n<span>\u201eEvropa se ji\u017e nem\u016f\u017ee spol\u00e9hat na automatickou podporu Washingtonu.\u201c<\/span><br \/>\n<span>Trump\u016fv postoj proti NATO a prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ministra obrany Peta Hegsetha z roku 2025, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad \u201eEvropa se nyn\u00ed mus\u00ed postarat o svou vlastn\u00ed obranu\u201c, podtrhuj\u00ed geopolitickou zm\u011bnu kurzu.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklad<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>IISS o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b v polovin\u011b roku 2025<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0, po kter\u00e9m se USA za\u010dnou vojensky stahovat z Evropy. Zpr\u00e1va n\u00e1sledn\u011b analyzuje, jak rychle by se Rusko mohlo po p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed znovu st\u00e1t vojenskou hrozbou.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>Rusko jako \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed hrozba<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Zpr\u00e1va zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee Rusko z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 \u201enejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vojenskou hrozbou pro euroatlantickou oblast\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>N\u011bkter\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 hodnocen\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span>Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0: Admir\u00e1l Tony Radakin odhaduje, \u017ee Putin bude pot\u0159ebovat asi p\u011bt let, aby arm\u00e1du vr\u00e1til na \u00farove\u0148 z roku 2022 \u2013 a dal\u0161\u00edch p\u011bt na odstran\u011bn\u00ed slabin.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>Estonsko<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0: Varuje p\u0159ed \u201emasovou arm\u00e1dou zalo\u017eenou na sov\u011btsk\u00e9m modelu\u201c do deseti let.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>Norsko<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0: Varuje p\u0159ed mo\u017en\u00fdm velk\u00fdm konfliktem za pouh\u00e9 2\u20133 roky.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>D\u00e1nsko<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0: Odhaduje se, \u017ee Rusko by mohlo v\u00e9st lok\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161arv\u00e1tky do \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky v Pobalt\u00ed do dvou let a velkou ofenz\u00edvu do p\u011bti let.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Auto\u0159i IISS se s d\u00e1nsk\u00fdm hodnocen\u00edm shoduj\u00ed a poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee i p\u0159es ztr\u00e1ty by Rusko\u00a0mohlo do roku 2027 sn\u00ed\u017eit po\u010det sv\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>na p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farove\u0148 .<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed \u2013 rusk\u00fd oddech, evropsk\u00e9 odpo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Podle zpr\u00e1vy se rusk\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 v\u00fddaje v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed od roku 2023 do roku 2024 zv\u00fd\u0161ily o\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>41,9 %<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0\u2013 na 145,9 miliard dolar\u016f (neboli 462 miliard dolar\u016f kupn\u00ed s\u00edly). Pod\u00edl HDP je nyn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>6,7 %<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee do roku 2025 vzroste na\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>7,5 %<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Kreml se ani nevzdal sv\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f na Ukrajin\u011b, ani se nep\u0159estal sna\u017eit destabilizovat Evropu. P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed by proto\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>pro Moskvu bylo pouze oddechem<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0, ale\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>pro Evropu za\u010d\u00e1tkem odpo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>Strategie NATO pro mo\u017enou \u201evelkou v\u00e1lku\u201c v Evrop\u011b<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Zpr\u00e1va v\u011bnuje jednu kapitolu\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>SACEUR<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0\u2013 nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edmu vojensk\u00e9mu velitelstv\u00ed NATO. NATO odhaduje, \u017ee od roku 2022 bude k realizaci sv\u00fdch obrann\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f pot\u0159ebovat o 30\u201350 % v\u00edce sil ne\u017e d\u0159\u00edve.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Z\u00e1rove\u0148 admir\u00e1l Pierre Vandier varoval: Ji\u017e nyn\u00ed je zaru\u010dena o 30 % men\u0161\u00ed kapacita, ne\u017e je nutn\u00e9. Nov\u00e9 c\u00edle by tento rozd\u00edl zv\u00fd\u0161ily o dal\u0161\u00edch 30 %.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>IISS zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee operace NATO jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>americk\u00fdch zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch, satelitech, kybernetick\u00fdch schopnostech a americk\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m arzen\u00e1lu<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0. Bez USA by vznikla nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1 propast.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>D\u016fsledky sta\u017een\u00ed USA<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>St\u00e1hla by se Amerika z Evropy:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>Z\u00e1kladny a infrastruktura by mohly b\u00fdt prod\u00e1ny nebo p\u0159ed\u00e1ny evropsk\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Evropa by si musela sama zajistit v\u00fdcvik a vybaven\u00ed,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Vznikly by mezery ve\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>schopnostech v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed a obrany<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0, nap\u0159\u00edklad kv\u016fli nedostatku satelitn\u00edch a pr\u016fzkumn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>Cenovka<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Podle IISS \u010din\u00ed n\u00e1klady na kompenzaci americk\u00fdch kapacit:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span>1 bilion americk\u00fdch dolar\u016f<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0na akvizici a 25 let provozu,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>226\u2013344 miliard USD<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0ro\u010dn\u011b dodate\u010dn\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>Ale i kdyby pen\u00edze byly\u2026<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>&#8230;nedostatek\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacity<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0. Evropsk\u00fd zbrojn\u00ed pr\u016fmysl zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 a f\u00faze a restrukturalizace prob\u00edhaj\u00ed pomalu. Objedn\u00e1vky nap\u0159. Nap\u0159\u00edklad 400 nov\u00fdch st\u00edha\u010dek je za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek sotva provediteln\u00fdch. Zpr\u00e1va vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 nadn\u00e1rodn\u00ed smluvn\u00ed strany k sdru\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>Z\u00e1v\u011br a doporu\u010den\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Zpr\u00e1va varuje: Pokud se Amerika st\u00e1hne, Evropa bude m\u00edt\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>obrovskou mezeru v obran\u011b<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>I s \u201ev\u00e1le\u010dnou ekonomikou\u201c zalo\u017eenou na rusk\u00e9m modelu chyb\u00ed v\u00fdrobn\u00ed linky, kvalifikovan\u00ed pracovn\u00edci, dodavatel\u00e9 a politick\u00e1 jednota. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 pomoc Ukrajin\u011b ji\u017e vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed. Vzestup pravicov\u00fdch stran je d\u00e1le podporov\u00e1n nejistotou a ekonomick\u00fdmi obavami.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Doporu\u010den\u00ed jsou:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>V\u00fdznamn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu nad r\u00e1mec st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch pl\u00e1n\u016f,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>spole\u010dn\u00e9 programy zbrojen\u00ed,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>politick\u00e1 komunikace ohro\u017een\u00ed situace s obyvatelstvem,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 a soukrom\u00e9 investice ve vysoce rizikov\u00fdch oblastech.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Skute\u010dnou v\u00fdzvou ale\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>nejsou pen\u00edze ani vybaven\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0, ale\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>jednotn\u00e1 politick\u00e1 v\u016fle<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0. A toho se v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v kriz\u00ed zm\u00edtan\u00e9 Evrop\u011b zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout. Pokud jedin\u00fdm zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edm receptem je \u201edal\u0161\u00ed militarizace\u201c, \u010del\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 demokracie nov\u00e9 \u00e9\u0159e politick\u00e9 nestability.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>Erkin Oncan<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/strategic-culture.su\/news\/2025\/05\/23\/europe-defence-without-us-what-does-new-cost-report-say\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vystoupen\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f z NATO by zanechalo v evropsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b zna\u010dnou mezeru. Renomovan\u00fd Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed institut&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79968,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,41,1165,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79967"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79967"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79967\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}