{"id":79780,"date":"2025-05-28T00:14:58","date_gmt":"2025-05-27T22:14:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=79780"},"modified":"2025-05-27T12:50:53","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T10:50:53","slug":"valecne-hry-rand-aby-se-zjistilo-zda-by-umela-inteligence-mohla-vyhladit-lidstvo-pomoci-patogenu-geoinzenyrstvi-a-jadernych-zbrani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/28\/valecne-hry-rand-aby-se-zjistilo-zda-by-umela-inteligence-mohla-vyhladit-lidstvo-pomoci-patogenu-geoinzenyrstvi-a-jadernych-zbrani\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 hry RAND, aby se zjistilo, zda by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla vyhladit lidstvo pomoc\u00ed patogen\u016f, geoin\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed a jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Spole\u010dnost RAND Corporation simuluje sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch hr\u00e1ch, aby prozkoumala, zda by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla p\u0159isp\u011bt k vyhynut\u00ed lidstva usnadn\u011bn\u00edm jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, v\u00fdvojem a nasazen\u00edm patogen\u016f a zapojen\u00edm se do \u0161kodliv\u00e9ho geoin\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle t\u0159\u00ed simulac\u00ed proveden\u00fdch v nov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b RAND s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span>O<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0riziku vyhynut\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed\u201c je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla sama vyhladit lidstvo. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, i kdyby byl k tomu naprogramov\u00e1n, m\u011bl by dostate\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup ke kritick\u00fdm syst\u00e9m\u016fm a byl by opr\u00e1vn\u011bn k rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed, mohl by zp\u016fsobit zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eSchopnosti um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence (AI) pokro\u010dily do takov\u00e9 m\u00edry, \u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed odborn\u00edci tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee by m\u011bla b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1na za v\u00e1\u017enou hrozbu pro existenci lidstva.\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

RAND,\u00a0<\/span>O riziku vyhynut\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00e9m um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, kv\u011bten 2025<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Aby auto\u0159i studie RAND dosp\u011bli ke sv\u00fdm z\u00e1v\u011br\u016fm, prozkoumali t\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, v nich\u017e by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla p\u0159edstavovat existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu pro lidstvo, a zkoumali, jak\u00e9 schopnosti by byly pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 \u2013 mnoh\u00e9 z nich by vy\u017eadovaly p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd lidsk\u00fd z\u00e1sah, naivitu a\/nebo hloupost.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Jadern\u00e1 v\u00e1lka<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0: Zkoumali jsme r\u016fzn\u00e9 zp\u016fsoby, jak\u00fdmi by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla v\u00e9st k pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, ale dosud jsme nena\u0161li v\u011brohodn\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla p\u0159ekonat st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky a vyhladit lidstvo.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Biologick\u00e1 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed a patogeny<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0: Hrozba pro existenci lidstva by vy\u017eadovala, aby um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence byla schopna z\u00edsk\u00e1vat, vyv\u00edjet, zpracov\u00e1vat, vyzbrojovat a nasazovat patogeny k vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed pandemie. Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence by pak musela podniknout n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 kroky k dosa\u017een\u00ed izolovan\u00fdch skupin a vym\u00fdcen\u00ed p\u0159e\u017eiv\u0161\u00edch lidsk\u00fdch komunit.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. \u0160kodliv\u00e9 geoin\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0: Geoin\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed by mohlo oh\u0159\u00e1t Zemi na neobyvateln\u00e9 teploty masovou produkc\u00ed plyn\u016f s extr\u00e9mn\u00edm potenci\u00e1lem glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, a t\u00edm vyhladit lidstvo.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Aby v kter\u00e9mkoli ze t\u0159\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f vytvo\u0159ila skute\u010dnou hrozbu vyhynut\u00ed lidstva, musela by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence m\u00edt n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. C\u00edlem je zp\u016fsobit vyhynut\u00ed lidstva.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n
    2. Schopnost integrace do kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch kyberneticko-fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n
    3. Schopnost p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt a fungovat bez lidsk\u00e9 p\u00e9\u010de.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n
    4. Schopnost p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit nebo oklamat lidi, aby podnikli kroky k vyhnut\u00ed se odhalen\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Poj\u010fme si stru\u010dn\u011b proj\u00edt v\u0161echny t\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e jeden po druh\u00e9m.<\/p>\n

      Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence a jadern\u00e1 v\u00e1lka<\/span><\/h3>\n

      Zpr\u00e1va zkoum\u00e1 t\u0159i zp\u016fsoby, jak by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla b\u00fdt vyu\u017eita k \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Z\u00e1m\u011brn\u00e1 integrace um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence do rozhodovac\u00edch proces\u016f v jadern\u00e9 oblasti<\/span><\/strong> :\u00a0<\/span>Prvn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, jak by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti v\u00e9st k pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, by bylo \u00famysln\u00e9 zaveden\u00ed model\u016f um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence do rozhodovac\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce vl\u00e1dou.<\/span><\/li>\n
      2. Klam\u00e1n\u00ed a dezinformace ze strany um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence vedouc\u00ed k pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed<\/span><\/strong> :\u00a0<\/span>Dezinformace by mohly b\u00fdt \u201em\u011bkk\u00e9\u201c, nap\u0159\u00edklad prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm zpr\u00e1v o protivn\u00edc\u00edch a politick\u00fdch syst\u00e9mech, kter\u00e9 p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010duj\u00ed osoby s rozhodovac\u00ed pravomoc\u00ed, \u017ee jadern\u00fd \u00fader je nezbytn\u00fd. Dezinformace by mohla b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 \u201etvrd\u00e1\u201c, nap\u0159\u00edklad klam\u00e1n\u00edm lidsk\u00fdch \u010dinitel\u016f s rozhodovac\u00ed pravomoc\u00ed pomoc\u00ed zmanipulovan\u00fdch technick\u00fdch dat nebo sign\u00e1l\u016f.<\/span><\/li>\n
      3. Neopr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e1 kontrola um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence nad jadern\u00fdmi rozhodnut\u00edmi<\/span><\/strong> :\u00a0<\/span>Pokud um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence vstoup\u00ed do rozhodovac\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce v oblasti jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v dob\u011b, kdy jsou jadern\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky slab\u00e9, bude pokro\u010dil\u00e1 um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed interagovat se syst\u00e9my souvisej\u00edc\u00edmi s jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi nebo jin\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm kybernetick\u00fdch rozhran\u00ed, nikoli fyzick\u00fdch rozhran\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Aby tedy um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla zp\u016fsobit jadernou apokalypsu, museli by j\u00ed lid\u00e9 d\u00e1t rozhodovac\u00ed pravomoci, um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence by musela oklamat lidi, kte\u0159\u00ed j\u00ed tyto pravomoci dali, a musela by z\u00edskat p\u0159\u00edstup ke kybernetick\u00fdm syst\u00e9m\u016fm, kter\u00e9 ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b.<\/p>\n

        Auto\u0159i v\u0161ak doch\u00e1zej\u00ed k z\u00e1v\u011bru: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Zkoumali jsme r\u016fzn\u00e9 zp\u016fsoby, jak\u00fdmi by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla v\u00e9st k pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, a nebyli jsme schopni naj\u00edt v\u011brohodn\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla p\u0159ekonat st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed omezen\u00ed a vyhladit lidstvo<\/span><\/em><\/strong>\u00a0.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

        Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence, biologick\u00e9 hrozby a patogeny<\/span><\/h3>\n

        Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence by mohla rychle naj\u00edt zp\u016fsoby, jak vyv\u00edjet nov\u00e9 viry, a jakmile by z\u00edskala kontrolu nad robotikou a softwarov\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my, mohla by tyto patogeny \u0161\u00ed\u0159it na specifick\u00e9 populace.<\/span><\/p>\n

        Po\u017eadavky, kter\u00e9 by musela um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence splnit, aby vyhladila lidstvo:<\/span><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence by m\u011bla m\u00edt za c\u00edl vyhladit lidstvo<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0:<\/span>\n
            \n
          • Hrozba vyhynut\u00ed vy\u017eaduje, aby akt\u00e9r podnikl \u0159adu krok\u016f k vytvo\u0159en\u00ed, vyzbrojen\u00ed a nasazen\u00ed biologick\u00e9 hrozby, kter\u00e1 by realisticky mohla v\u00e9st k vyhynut\u00ed lidstva.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
          • Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence by pot\u0159ebovala robustn\u00ed zp\u016fsob interakce s fyzick\u00fdm sv\u011btem<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0:<\/span>\n
              \n
            • Aby um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence m\u011bla fyzick\u00e9 schopnosti, pot\u0159ebovala by lidskou pomoc nebo dostupnost obecn\u011b schopn\u00fdch robot\u016f.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
            • Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence by pot\u0159ebovala zp\u016fsob, jak p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt bez lidsk\u00fdch pe\u010dovatel\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0:<\/span>\n
                \n
              • S \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm pandemie by ji\u017e nebyli k dispozici lid\u0161t\u00ed pe\u010dovatel\u00e9 a um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence by st\u00e1le musela podniknout n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 kroky, aby zajistila, \u017ee se pandemie neroz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do izolovan\u00fdch lidsk\u00fdch komunit (nebo naj\u00edt jin\u00e9 zp\u016fsoby, jak zab\u00edt n\u011bkolik p\u0159e\u017eiv\u0161\u00edch).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                Auto\u0159i popisuj\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, ve kter\u00e9m by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla p\u0159evz\u00edt kontrolu nad drony nalo\u017een\u00fdmi virem a shodit je na populaci. Tvrd\u00ed v\u0161ak, \u017ee jakmile bude eliminov\u00e1no dostate\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed lid\u00ed, \u201e infrastruktura, na kter\u00e9 je v sou\u010dasnosti um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence z\u00e1visl\u00e1 pro svou funk\u010dnost, se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b zhrout\u00ed<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0.\u201c<\/p>\n

                To v sou\u010dasnosti plat\u00ed pro v\u0161echny sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e \u2013 kdyby bylo zabito dostate\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed lid\u00ed, nezbyl by nikdo, kdo by udr\u017eoval dod\u00e1vky energie, provoz datov\u00fdch center nebo fungov\u00e1n\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence \u2013 alespo\u0148 to je teorie.<\/span><\/p>\n

                Pokud jde o um\u011blou inteligenci a patogeny, auto\u0159i uzav\u00edraj\u00ed: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Nebyli jsme schopni ur\u010dit, zda tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 p\u0159edstavuje pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 riziko vyhynut\u00ed lidstva, ale tuto mo\u017enost nem\u016f\u017eeme vylou\u010dit<\/span><\/em><\/strong>\u00a0.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

                Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence a \u0161kodliv\u00e9 geoin\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

                V souvislosti s t\u00e9matem \u0161kodliv\u00e9ho geoin\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed auto\u0159i studie RAND zkoumali, jak by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla tajn\u011b vyr\u00e1b\u011bt a ukl\u00e1dat chemik\u00e1lie a sklen\u00edkov\u00e9 plyny v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu, a pot\u00e9 je uvol\u0148ovat do atmosf\u00e9ry a zp\u016fsobovat glob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by zabilo miliardy lid\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

                Aby um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i p\u0159edstavovala hrozbu vyhynut\u00ed, musela by m\u00edt alespo\u0148 t\u0159i schopnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

                  \n
                1. Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence by musela b\u00fdt schopna koordinovat v\u00fdrobu chemik\u00e1li\u00ed ve velk\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n
                2. Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence by musela b\u00fdt schopna skr\u00fdt sv\u00e9 \u00famysly, sv\u00e9 \u010diny a d\u016fsledky t\u011bchto \u010din\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n
                3. Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence by musela m\u00edt za c\u00edl zp\u016fsobit vyhynut\u00ed, proto\u017ee geoin\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed v rozsahu pot\u0159ebn\u00e9m k vytvo\u0159en\u00ed hrozby vyhynut\u00ed nemohlo b\u00fdt ne\u00famysln\u00e9; Aby to bylo mo\u017en\u00e9, musely by b\u00fdt akce skryty p\u0159ed lidsk\u00fdmi pozorovateli.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  Pokud jde o \u0161kodliv\u00e9 geoin\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed bez um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, auto\u0159i doch\u00e1zej\u00ed k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee \u201e tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0p\u0159edstavuje skute\u010dnou hrozbu vyhynut\u00ed a potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed vyvr\u00e1cen\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed hypot\u00e9zy\u201c, proto\u017ee \u201e\u00a0geoin\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed by prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm masov\u00e9 produkce plyn\u016f s extr\u00e9mn\u00edm potenci\u00e1lem glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed mohlo oh\u0159\u00e1t Zemi na neobyvateln\u00e9 teploty a t\u00edm zp\u016fsobit vyhynut\u00ed lidstva<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u201c.<\/p>\n

                  Auto\u0159i z\u00e1rove\u0148 uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0<\/span>nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, jak by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla k tomuto efektu p\u0159isp\u011bt<\/span><\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

                  \u201eRealisticky by schopn\u00fd protivn\u00edk mohl pou\u017e\u00edt v\u00edce metod sou\u010dasn\u011b k vyhlazen\u00ed lidstva.\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

                  RAND,\u00a0<\/span>O riziku vyhynut\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00e9m um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, kv\u011bten 2025<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n