{"id":79778,"date":"2025-05-28T00:13:03","date_gmt":"2025-05-27T22:13:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=79778"},"modified":"2025-05-27T12:44:36","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T10:44:36","slug":"na-pokraji-selhani-usa-iran-a-prizrak-izraelskeho-utoku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/28\/na-pokraji-selhani-usa-iran-a-prizrak-izraelskeho-utoku\/","title":{"rendered":"Na pokraji selh\u00e1n\u00ed: USA, \u00cdr\u00e1n a p\u0159\u00edzrak izraelsk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Andrej Zeltyn o spir\u00e1le, kter\u00e1 se ot\u00e1\u010d\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, a nebezpe\u010d\u00ed nov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 eskalace v regionu<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Nad Bl\u00edzk\u00fdm v\u00fdchodem se op\u011bt stahuj\u00ed mraky. Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem o jadern\u00e9m programu jsou na pokraji zhroucen\u00ed a hroz\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Situace se rychle vyv\u00edj\u00ed z diplomatick\u00e9 patov\u00e9 situace k re\u00e1ln\u00e9 hrozb\u011b nov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co uk\u00e1zalo p\u00e1t\u00e9 kolo<\/span><\/h3>\n

Navzdory form\u00e1ln\u00edmu sp\u00e1du jedn\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 posledn\u00ed setk\u00e1n\u00ed americko-\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch vyjednava\u010d\u016f se konalo 23. kv\u011btna v \u0158\u00edm\u011b na diplomatick\u00e9 misi Om\u00e1nu, kter\u00e1 p\u016fsob\u00ed jako medi\u00e1tor \u2013 nedoch\u00e1z\u00ed ke skute\u010dn\u00e9mu sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed pozic. P\u0159esto\u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed prob\u00edhaj\u00ed na pom\u011brn\u011b vysok\u00e9 \u00farovni (\u00edr\u00e1nskou delegaci vede \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Abb\u00e1s Arag\u010d\u00ed a na americk\u00e9 stran\u011b vede vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed t\u00fdm zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vyslanec prezidenta Donalda Trumpa Steve Witkoff), zat\u00edm se nepoda\u0159ilo dos\u00e1hnout \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f. USA vyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed k zastaven\u00ed obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu a demont\u00e1\u017ei jadern\u00e9 infrastruktury, zat\u00edmco \u00cdr\u00e1n nad\u00e1le trv\u00e1 na suver\u00e9nn\u00edm rozvoji jadern\u00e9 technologie a zd\u016fraz\u0148uje jej\u00ed \u201eciviln\u00ed povahu\u201c. V d\u016fsledku toho se zd\u00e1, \u017ee strany dosp\u011bly do taktick\u00e9 slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky, v n\u00ed\u017e je jak\u00fdkoli \u00fastupek vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako zn\u00e1mka slabosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 z \u201evyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edch oblast\u00ed\u201c p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed protich\u016fdn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly. \u00cdr\u00e1n, zastoupen\u00fd n\u00e1m\u011bstkem ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Majidem Tachtem-Ravanchiem, obvi\u0148uje americkou stranu z protich\u016fdn\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f, zat\u00edmco mluv\u010d\u00ed B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu Karoline Leavittov\u00e1 vysv\u011btluje, \u017ee existuj\u00ed pouze dva zp\u016fsoby, jak jedn\u00e1n\u00ed uzav\u0159\u00edt: bu\u010f Teher\u00e1n souhlas\u00ed se v\u0161emi po\u017eadavky, nebo \u00cdr\u00e1n bude \u010delit obt\u00ed\u017e\u00edm. Pozice je, je t\u0159eba \u0159\u00edct, dost zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed<\/span><\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m se z\u0159ejm\u011b to\u010d\u00ed kolem n\u011bkolika bod\u016f:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 zda \u00cdr\u00e1n udr\u017e\u00ed sv\u016fj syst\u00e9m obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu na \u201eciviln\u00ed\u201c \u00farovni pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 pro jadernou energii;<\/span>
\n\u2022 co by se m\u011blo st\u00e1t s ji\u017e obohacen\u00fdm uranem ur\u010den\u00fdm pro pou\u017eit\u00ed ve zbran\u00edch;<\/span>
\n\u2022 co d\u011blat s \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm raketov\u00fdm programem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1n striktn\u011b odm\u00edt\u00e1 diskutovat o sv\u00e9m raketov\u00e9m programu nebo o sv\u00e9m pr\u00e1vu na m\u00edrov\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Navzdory protich\u016fdn\u00fdm sign\u00e1l\u016fm z obou stran proces vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1le prob\u00edh\u00e1; Ob\u011b strany se v \u0158\u00edm\u011b setkaly ji\u017e pop\u00e1t\u00e9 a budou v konzultac\u00edch pokra\u010dovat. Jak \u0159ekl Abb\u00e1s Arag\u010d\u00ed, Teher\u00e1n se nevzd\u00e1v\u00e1 sv\u00fdch pr\u00e1v, ale je p\u0159ipraven k rozumn\u00fdm \u00fastupk\u016fm a tot\u00e9\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 i od Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izrael to nebude tolerovat a \u00cdr\u00e1n zareaguje.<\/span><\/h3>\n

Mezit\u00edm Izrael, kter\u00fd z\u00e1sadn\u011b odm\u00edt\u00e1 jadernou dohodu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, v\u00fdrazn\u011b zvy\u0161uje \u00farove\u0148 nap\u011bt\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle z\u00e1padn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00ed s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na zdroje z americk\u00fdch tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb Tel Aviv zva\u017euje preventivn\u00ed \u00fader proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm. Vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed, p\u0159esuny munice a ostr\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed vysok\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f nazna\u010duj\u00ed v\u00e1\u017enost z\u00e1m\u011br\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izrael vn\u00edm\u00e1 jadern\u011b vyzbrojen\u00fd \u00cdr\u00e1n jako existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu a podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru by mohl jednat nejen bez podpory USA, ale i proti v\u016fli Washingtonu. Benjamin Netanjahu se obecn\u011b v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b dostal do v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho konfliktu s Donaldem Trumpem. Izraelsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r ji\u017e p\u0159i sv\u00e9 n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b Washingtonu 7. dubna leto\u0161n\u00edho roku nez\u00edskal souhlas americk\u00e9ho prezidenta s \u00faderem proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee izraelsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da nyn\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zva\u017euje mo\u017enost a dokonce i pravd\u011bpodobnost nez\u00e1visl\u00e9ho \u00faderu proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm. Pro\u010d by jinak americk\u00e9 tajn\u00e9 slu\u017eby doslova unikaly informace o hroz\u00edc\u00edm \u00faniku?<\/span><\/p>\n

To vypad\u00e1 jako jak\u00e9si varov\u00e1n\u00ed Izraeli, aby se nepokou\u0161el jedn\u00e1n\u00ed naru\u0161it.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n ze sv\u00e9 strany ji\u017e jasn\u011b uvedl, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b agrese zareaguje s maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsnost\u00ed. \u201eZvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed\u201c by mohla zahrnovat \u00fatoky na americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v regionu a tak\u00e9 mobilizaci spojeneck\u00fdch skupin v Libanonu, S\u00fdrii, Ir\u00e1ku a Jemenu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalace mohla rychle roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it na cel\u00fd Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fsledky eskalace<\/span><\/h3>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee se \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 schopnosti od ztr\u00e1ty S\u00fdrie dramaticky sn\u00ed\u017eily, \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed z\u00e1stupci, kte\u0159\u00ed tvo\u0159\u00ed nechvaln\u011b zn\u00e1mou \u201eOsu odporu\u201c, jsou st\u00e1le schopni prov\u00e1d\u011bt aktivn\u00ed operace proti americk\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. A v men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e i proti izraelsk\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm, pot\u00e9, co Hizball\u00e1h utrp\u011bl nenapraviteln\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty a zm\u011bnila se vnitropolitick\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha v Libanonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 si toho jsou v\u011bdomi a zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee se sna\u017e\u00ed vyhnout eskalaci. Jak v\u0161ak ukazuje historie posledn\u00edch dvou let, je zbyte\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00eddat \u010diny sou\u010dasn\u00e9 krajn\u011b pravicov\u00e9 izraelsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a je zbyte\u010dn\u00e9 ji kontrolovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nevyhnuteln\u011b povede k obecn\u00e9 eskalaci v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a nepochybn\u011b ovlivn\u00ed ji\u017e tak nestabiln\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trhy. Rostouc\u00ed ceny ropy, naru\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravy a nov\u00e9 vlny migrace jsou jen n\u011bkter\u00e9 z mo\u017en\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f. Selh\u00e1n\u00ed diplomacie nav\u00edc bude znamenat kone\u010dn\u00fd kolaps syst\u00e9mu ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, a to nejen na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Region op\u011bt \u010del\u00ed dilematu bez zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 dobr\u00fdch \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. P\u0159es sv\u016fj teatr\u00e1ln\u00ed efekt tlak, hrozby a leteck\u00e9 \u00fadery probl\u00e9m neodstra\u0148uj\u00ed, ale naopak ho zhor\u0161uj\u00ed. Region za\u017eil n\u00e1siln\u00e9 krize p\u0159i v\u00edce ne\u017e jedn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti, kter\u00e9 zjevn\u011b nikdy nevedly k pozitivn\u00edmu v\u00fdsledku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Okno pro diplomacii je\u0161t\u011b nen\u00ed uzav\u0159eno, ale zu\u017euje se. Aby se zabr\u00e1nilo katastrof\u011b, mus\u00ed v\u0161echny z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 strany \u2013 USA, \u00cdr\u00e1n, Izrael \u2013 j\u00edt nad r\u00e1mec obvykl\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f. Jinak n\u00e1m historie znovu p\u0159ipomene, jak drah\u00e1 je neschopnost vyjedn\u00e1vat.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00davodn\u00ed fotografie:<\/strong> Jadern\u00e1 elektr\u00e1rna B\u00fa\u0161ehr, \u00cdr\u00e1n \u00a9 Fatemeh Bahrami\/ Anadolu p\u0159es Getty Images<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Andrej Zeltyn o spir\u00e1le, kter\u00e1 se ot\u00e1\u010d\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, a nebezpe\u010d\u00ed nov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 eskalace…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79779,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,107,220,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79778"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79778"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79778\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79779"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}