{"id":79727,"date":"2025-05-27T00:34:42","date_gmt":"2025-05-26T22:34:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=79727"},"modified":"2025-05-26T18:10:34","modified_gmt":"2025-05-26T16:10:34","slug":"doby-ledove-nove-vysvetlene-tato-teorie-obraci-klimaticky-narativ-vzhuru-nohama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/27\/doby-ledove-nove-vysvetlene-tato-teorie-obraci-klimaticky-narativ-vzhuru-nohama\/","title":{"rendered":"Doby ledov\u00e9 nov\u011b vysv\u011btlen\u00e9: Tato teorie obrac\u00ed klimatick\u00fd narativ vzh\u016fru nohama"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Historie dob ledov\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 formovaly Zemi po stovky tis\u00edc let, je z\u00e1hadou, kter\u00e1 zam\u011bstn\u00e1v\u00e1 klimatologii po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed. Ale co kdy\u017e jsou b\u011b\u017en\u00e1 vysv\u011btlen\u00ed \u2013 od CO2 po orbit\u00e1ln\u00ed cykly \u2013 zalo\u017eena na z\u00e1sadn\u00ed chyb\u011b?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b to tvrd\u00ed dva v\u00fdzkumn\u00edci s nep\u0159\u00edjemnou teori\u00ed, Ned Nikolov a Karl Zeller. Jejich novoz\u00e9landsk\u00e1 sjednocen\u00e1 teorie klimatu klade atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fd tlak do centra klimatick\u00fdch v\u00fdkyv\u016f a mohla by ot\u0159\u00e1st z\u00e1klady zaveden\u00e9 klimatologii. Podle nich hraj\u00ed CO2 a Milankovi\u0107ovy cykly pouze malou roli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00fd pohled na dynamiku klimatu<\/span><\/h3>\n

P\u0159edstavte si sv\u011bt, ve kter\u00e9m klima neur\u010duje slo\u017een\u00ed atmosf\u00e9ry, ale jej\u00ed celkov\u00fd tlak. Nikolov a Zeller vyvinuli model zalo\u017een\u00fd na datech NASA z na\u0161\u00ed slune\u010dn\u00ed soustavy, kter\u00fd p\u0159esn\u011b sleduje teplotn\u00ed rozd\u00edly mezi rovn\u00edkem a p\u00f3ly. Tento model ukazuje, jak kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho tlaku vysv\u011btluje tzv. \u201epol\u00e1rn\u00ed amplifikace\u201c \u2013 jev, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m p\u00f3ly za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed teplotn\u00ed kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed dvakr\u00e1t siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e rovn\u00edk. Modely zalo\u017een\u00e9 na CO2, kter\u00e9 po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed dominovaly debat\u011b o klimatu, zde \u017ealostn\u011b selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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P\u0159es Neda Nikolova \/ X<\/span><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

V\u011bdci se op\u00edraj\u00ed o empirick\u00e1 data, kter\u00e1 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee vzd\u00e1lenost mezi Sluncem a Zem\u00ed se za posledn\u00edch 800 000 let t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nezm\u011bnila. Orbit\u00e1ln\u00ed cykly, dlouho pova\u017eovan\u00e9 za hnac\u00ed s\u00edlu dob ledov\u00fdch, v jejich teorii nehraj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou roli. M\u00edsto toho se zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na termodynamick\u00e9 procesy, kter\u00e9 jsou \u0159\u00edzeny atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdm tlakem. Je to p\u0159\u00edstup, kter\u00fd nut\u00ed klimatologii zpochyb\u0148ovat sv\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady \u2013 a pr\u00e1v\u011b to ho d\u011bl\u00e1 tak v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00fdm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Milankovi\u0107\u016fv m\u00fdtus vyvr\u00e1cen<\/span><\/h3>\n

Milankovi\u0107ova hypot\u00e9za byla po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed pova\u017eov\u00e1na za nezpochybnitelnou pravdu: zm\u011bny v ob\u011b\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1ze Zem\u011b spustily doby ledov\u00e9. Nikolov a Zeller to ale naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed m\u00fdtem, kter\u00fd data nevysv\u011btluje. V\u00a0<\/span>blogov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku z roku 2022 na Tallbloke’s Talkshop<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ukazuj\u00ed, pro\u010d orbit\u00e1ln\u00ed fluktuace nemohou zachytit pol\u00e1rn\u00ed zes\u00edlen\u00ed. Jejich teorie m\u00edsto toho nab\u00edz\u00ed ucelen\u00e9 vysv\u011btlen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je v souladu s rekonstrukcemi teplot z pozdn\u00edho kvart\u00e9ru.<\/span><\/p>\n

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P\u0159es Neda Nikolova, X<\/span><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Recenzovan\u00e9 studie, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad ty ve\u00a0<\/span>SpringerPlus (2014)<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nebo\u00a0<\/span>MDPI (2024)<\/span><\/a> , tento p\u0159\u00edstup podporuj\u00ed. Ukazuj\u00ed, jak atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fd tlak \u0159\u00edd\u00ed rozlo\u017een\u00ed tepla na Zemi, zat\u00edmco sklen\u00edkov\u00e9 plyny hraj\u00ed jen malou roli. Tato d\u00edla nejsou \u00fatokem na v\u011bdu, ale v\u00fdzvou k jej\u00ed obnov\u011b. Vyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00edky klimatu, aby m\u011bli odvahu opustit star\u00e1 dogmata a vydat se nov\u00fdmi cestami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pochybnosti o datech<\/span><\/h3>\n

Novoz\u00e9landsk\u00e1 teorie jde je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1l a vrh\u00e1 st\u00edn na integritu historick\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch dat. V jin\u00e9m\u00a0<\/span>blogov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v\u011bdci nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed slune\u010dn\u00edho z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed mezi lety 1960 a 1980 mohla b\u00fdt zmanipulov\u00e1na tak, aby podpo\u0159ila teorii o glob\u00e1ln\u00edm oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 je \u0161\u00edlen\u00e1 po klimatu. Takov\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed jsou v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e1, ale p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed n\u00e1m, \u017ee v\u011bda se neodehr\u00e1v\u00e1 ve vakuu. Data, kter\u00e1 slou\u017e\u00ed politick\u00fdm nebo ideologick\u00fdm \u00fa\u010del\u016fm, si zaslou\u017e\u00ed kritick\u00e9 zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nikolov a Zeller publikovali sv\u00e1 zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed nejen v akademick\u00fdch \u010dasopisech, ale tak\u00e9 v p\u0159\u00edstupn\u00fdch form\u00e1tech, jako jsou p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ky a podcasty. Video\u00a0<\/span>na Vimeo z roku 2021<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nebo podcast\u00a0<\/span>s Tomem Nelsonem<\/span><\/a> z roku 2025 vysv\u011btluj\u00ed teorii zp\u016fsobem, kter\u00e9mu rozum\u00ed i laici. Tato otev\u0159enost je apelem na ve\u0159ejnost, aby si utvo\u0159ila vlastn\u00ed n\u00e1zor a ne\u0159\u00eddila se slep\u011b narativy zaveden\u00e9 klimatologii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bud\u00ed\u010dek pro v\u011bdu<\/span><\/h3>\n

Novoz\u00e9landsk\u00e1 sjednocen\u00e1 teorie klimatu je \u00fatokem na pohodln\u00e9 jistoty v\u00fdzkumu klimatu. Ukazuje, jak m\u016f\u017ee atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fd tlak vysv\u011btlit historii klimatu Zem\u011b tam, kde modely CO2 selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Teorie nen\u00ed bez kritiky, ale jej\u00ed empirick\u00fd z\u00e1klad z n\u00ed \u010din\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta na paradigmatick\u00fd posun. Nut\u00ed n\u00e1s to polo\u017eit si ot\u00e1zku: Co kdy\u017e v\u011bda po cel\u00e1 ta l\u00e9ta klima \u0161patn\u011b ch\u00e1pala?<\/span><\/p>\n

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Historie dob ledov\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 formovaly Zemi po stovky tis\u00edc let, je z\u00e1hadou, kter\u00e1 zam\u011bstn\u00e1v\u00e1 klimatologii…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79728,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[9196,873,5235,1156],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79727"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79727"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79727\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79728"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79727"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79727"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79727"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}