{"id":79713,"date":"2025-05-27T00:26:10","date_gmt":"2025-05-26T22:26:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=79713"},"modified":"2025-05-26T17:27:58","modified_gmt":"2025-05-26T15:27:58","slug":"zbynek-fiala-trumpova-cla-miri-na-evropu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/27\/zbynek-fiala-trumpova-cla-miri-na-evropu\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Trumpova cla m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed na Evropu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Prakticky okam\u017eit\u011b, od 1. \u010dervna, m\u011bly b\u00fdt v\u0161echny evropsk\u00e9 v\u00fdvozy do USA zat\u00ed\u017eeny astronomick\u00fdm clem, ne\u017e se to zm\u011bnilo na 9. \u010dervence. Jak se m\u016f\u017eeme br\u00e1nit?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Doba je vrtkav\u00e1, a tak najednou z\u00a0ni\u010deho nic p\u0159ilet\u011bla z\u00a0Washingtonu zpr\u00e1va, \u017ee Donald Trump napa\u0159\u00ed EU cla od 1. \u010dervna ve v\u00fd\u0161i 50 procent. Historicky se tato cla pohybovala pod 10 procenty, tak\u017ee st\u0159elil opravdu vysoko. O p\u00e1r hodin pozd\u011bji byl vyjedn\u00e1n odklad o p\u00e1r t\u00fddn\u016f do konce t\u0159\u00edm\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed lh\u016fty, kdy m\u00e1 vypr\u0161et odklad \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho bal\u00edku \u201erecipro\u010dn\u00edch\u201c cel. Probl\u00e9m v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1. Co budeme d\u011blat?<\/p>\n

Je to historick\u00fd zlom? Mo\u017en\u00e1, a m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt k\u00a0lep\u0161\u00edmu, kdy\u017e k\u00a0tomu p\u0159istoup\u00edme s\u00a0chladnou hlavou a za\u010dneme se starat o opravdov\u00e9 \u010desk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy.<\/p>\n

Na \u010cesko by dopadla Trumpova cla hlavn\u011b nep\u0159\u00edmo, proto\u017ee jsme subdodavatel\u00e9, \u010dasto s\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed p\u0159idanou hodnotou.\u00a0V roce 2023 sm\u011b\u0159ovalo\u00a080 % celkov\u00e9ho \u010desk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu\u00a0do zem\u00ed Evropsk\u00e9 unie.<\/strong>\u00a0V\u00fdvoz jen do N\u011bmecka \u010dinil 30 procent \u010desk\u00e9ho exportu.\u00a0<\/strong>V\u00a0absolutn\u00edch \u010d\u00edslech m\u011bl v\u00fdvoz do EU\u00a0hodnotu 3,6 bilionu korun, z\u00a0toho do N\u011bmecka jeden bilion korun. Porovnejme to s HDP \u010cR, kter\u00fd \u010dinil toho roku 7,6 bilionu korun.<\/p>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, jak m\u00e1lo m\u016f\u017eeme sami ovlivnit a jak to schyt\u00e1me, kdy\u017e se v\u00a0zahrani\u010d\u00ed n\u011bco nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9ho pohne (asymetrick\u00fd \u0161ok<\/em>). \u010cesk\u00e1 chlouba v\u00a0podob\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 exportn\u00ed strategie dozr\u00e1la do stavu, kdy n\u00e1s sv\u00edr\u00e1 extr\u00e9mn\u00ed z\u00e1vislost na \u00fazk\u00e9m okruhu zahrani\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f.<\/p>\n

Uveden\u00e9 obrovsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo \u2013 on\u011bch 80 procent \u010desk\u00e9ho exportu, kter\u00e9 jdou jen do EU \u2013 bychom proto m\u011bli m\u00edt st\u00e1le na pam\u011bti, kdy\u017e \u010dteme b\u011b\u017en\u00e1 \u010desk\u00e1 doporu\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee nov\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed bari\u00e9ry v\u00a0obchodu s\u00a0USA by se m\u011bly \u0159e\u0161it dal\u0161\u00edm usnadn\u011bn\u00edm podm\u00ednek pro vnit\u0159n\u00ed obchod v\u00a0EU. Te\u010f bychom m\u011bli myslet sp\u00ed\u0161e na obranu n\u00e1rodn\u00ed ekonomiky ne\u017e na zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed expanze mimo kontrolu.<\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed otev\u0159enost p\u0159eje siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm. Proto ji prosazuj\u00ed, ale jen po dobu sv\u00e9 dominance. Uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00e9 ekonomiky signalizuje, \u017ee USA jsou nuceny z\u00a0t\u00e9to pozice ustupovat a za\u010d\u00edt se br\u00e1nit. \u010ceskou \u0161anci proto hledejme tak\u00e9 na stran\u011b defenz\u00edvy. Vyu\u017eijme sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00e9ho vlivu, oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed hegemona, nezbabrejme to pouh\u00fdm p\u0159eskupov\u00e1n\u00edm z\u00e1vislosti.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ehledn\u011b je struktura obchodu EU s\u00a0USA vyj\u00e1d\u0159ena krabicov\u00fdm grafem t\u0159eba na port\u00e1le CEPII (francouzsk\u00fd institut pro v\u00fdzkum v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ekonomii Centre d’\u00c9tudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales, kter\u00fd je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u00fa\u0159adu p\u0159edsedy vl\u00e1dy).<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.cepii.fr\/visualdata\/trade_eu_usa\/trade_eu_usa.html<\/a><\/p>\n

N\u00e1s pochopiteln\u011b nejv\u00edc zaj\u00edm\u00e1 v\u00fdvoz zbo\u017e\u00ed do USA, kdyby na n\u011bj dopadla sekera 50 procentn\u00edho cla.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Obchodn\u00ed konflikt mezi USA a EU nejv\u00edc dopad\u00e1 na N\u011bmecko. N\u011bmeck\u00e1 ekonomika je patrn\u011b nejotev\u0159en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na sv\u011bt\u011b, pod\u00edl n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu na HDP, kdy se sou\u010det dovozu a v\u00fdvozu bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed 90 procent\u016fm, je vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b, a je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je rozd\u00edl v\u00a0obchodn\u00edch p\u0159ebytc\u00edch. Proto to dopadne dispropor\u010dn\u011b v\u00edc i na \u010cesko, kter\u00e9 je na N\u011bmecko tak \u00fazce nalepeno.<\/p>\n

\u010ceska se nejv\u00edc t\u00fdk\u00e1 v\u00fdvoz n\u011bmeck\u00fdch aut, kde jsme zapojeni do dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce. Jak vy\u010dteme z prvn\u00edho grafu zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho francouzsk\u00e9ho v\u00fdzkum\u00e1ku (fialov\u00e1 vpravo dole), v\u00fdvoz aut \u010din\u00ed 9 procent exportu EU do USA. Podle prvn\u00edch odhad\u016f clo ve v\u00fd\u0161i 50 procent by zv\u00fd\u0161ilo ceny n\u011bmeck\u00fdch aut na americk\u00e9m trhu o 15\u201320 procent a sn\u00ed\u017eilo prodeje o 30 procent.<\/p>\n

Auta a stroje v\u0161ak nejsou na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b z\u00a0hlediska v\u00fdvozu EU do USA, tam figuruj\u00ed l\u00e9\u010diva, farmaceutick\u00e9 v\u00fdrobky a dal\u0161\u00ed chemie (skoro 30 procent, oran\u017eov\u00e1 krabice vlevo dole). Na N\u011bmecko by tak je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce dopadly d\u016fsledky omezen\u00ed v\u00a0tomto segmentu, kde m\u00e1 rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed pod\u00edl v\u00a0evropsk\u00e9m v\u00fdvozu spolu s\u00a0Irskem. To u\u017e jde v\u00edce mimo n\u00e1s.<\/p>\n

N\u011bco se vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed z\u00a0\u010ceska do USA nap\u0159\u00edmo jako t\u0159eba nemocni\u010dn\u00ed l\u016f\u017eka. Tam by byl okam\u017eit\u00fd dopad velk\u00fd, ale \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed by jist\u011b na\u0161li. Pro celou ekonomiku jsou v\u0161ak pot\u0159eba strategick\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

M\u00e1me jedine\u010dnou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost pochopit, \u017ee jsme to s\u00a0tou exportn\u00ed orientac\u00ed p\u0159ehnali. A dorazili to \u00fazkou v\u00fdrobn\u00ed orientac\u00ed. V \u010cesku a Slovensku je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed koncentrace automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu na sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/p>\n

Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed ovl\u00e1dnut\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky dos\u00e1hlo t\u00e9 m\u00edry, \u017ee t\u0159eba ekonomka \u0160vihl\u00edkov\u00e1 u\u017e \u0159adu let hodnot\u00ed \u010cesko jako kolonii (Ilona \u0160vihl\u00edkov\u00e1: Jak jsme se stali koloni\u00ed. Rybka Publishers 2015.).<\/em>\u00a0Na\u0161e v\u00fdhoda pro partnery spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0nebety\u010dn\u00e9 skromnosti, v\u00a0ochot\u011b pracovat za zlomek b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 mzdy. Ta vyhraje v\u017edycky, a jen analytici budou zkoumat, kdo n\u00e1s moment\u00e1ln\u011b nejv\u00edc od\u00edr\u00e1. Jako kolonie m\u00e1me tedy budoucnost jistou. Ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed, zda o to stoj\u00edme. A taky jestli se najde n\u011bkdo, kdo by nab\u00eddl strategie v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 suverenity.<\/p>\n

Obchodn\u00ed p\u0159ebytky jsou fakticky jevem glob\u00e1ln\u00ed makroekonomick\u00e9 nerovnov\u00e1hy. Je to jednoduch\u00e1 matematika, proti p\u0159ebytk\u016fm na stran\u011b dodavatel\u016f nutn\u011b stoj\u00ed schodky na stran\u011b odb\u011bratel\u016f. Pokud tedy nechcete dod\u00e1vat zadarmo. Vysok\u00e1 exportn\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost je tak vysoce z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na platebn\u00ed schopnosti nebo ochot\u011b odb\u011bratel\u016f. A na hladk\u00e9m fungov\u00e1n\u00ed cel\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se objev\u00ed \u010dern\u00e1 labu\u0165 jako Trump, kter\u00fd do toho hodil vidle, \u00fasp\u011bchy nab\u00edraj\u00ed opa\u010dn\u00e1 znam\u00e9nka. Pen\u00edze, se kter\u00fdmi po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1te jako s\u00a0p\u0159\u00edjmy, se p\u0159eklop\u00ed do z\u00e1vazk\u016f, do n\u00e1klad\u016f z\u00a0p\u0159erostl\u00e9 b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 \u010dinnosti, kter\u00e9 nen\u00ed z\u00a0\u010deho hradit.<\/p>\n

N\u011bmecko je tedy sou\u010dasn\u011b extr\u00e9mn\u011b siln\u00e9 i extr\u00e9mn\u011b zraniteln\u00e9, a \u010cesko to schyt\u00e1 n\u00e1sobn\u011b, proto\u017ee nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 siln\u00e9 karty, jak by \u0159ekl Donald Trump. Je odk\u00e1z\u00e1no na reakce partner\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed mohou d\u00e1t p\u0159ednost pot\u0159eb\u00e1m dom\u00e1c\u00edch ekonomik v\u00a0zem\u00edch podnikov\u00fdch centr\u00e1l.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017enou \u010deskou \u00fastupovou cestu p\u0159edstavuje posilov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdroby pro dom\u00e1c\u00ed trh. Orientace na v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sob\u011bsta\u010dnost, na r\u016fst v\u0161ech region\u016f, nejen pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch center, a na spot\u0159ebu s vyu\u017eit\u00edm dom\u00e1c\u00edch zdroj\u016f. To chv\u00edli potrv\u00e1 a nen\u00ed to zadarmo. O to v\u00edc n\u00e1m budou chyb\u011bt pen\u00edze vyh\u00e1zen\u00e9 za americk\u00e9 zbran\u011b.<\/p>\n

Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee to je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd podn\u011bt pro startuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed debatu.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prakticky okam\u017eit\u011b, od 1. \u010dervna, m\u011bly b\u00fdt v\u0161echny evropsk\u00e9 v\u00fdvozy do USA zat\u00ed\u017eeny astronomick\u00fdm clem,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":75591,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,1026,59,283,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79713"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79713"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79713\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}