{"id":79541,"date":"2025-05-24T00:43:07","date_gmt":"2025-05-23T22:43:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=79541"},"modified":"2025-05-23T19:05:17","modified_gmt":"2025-05-23T17:05:17","slug":"seymour-hersh-kolik-dalsich-valek-si-rusko-muze-dovolit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/24\/seymour-hersh-kolik-dalsich-valek-si-rusko-muze-dovolit\/","title":{"rendered":"Seymour Hersh: Kolik dal\u0161\u00edch v\u00e1lek si Rusko m\u016f\u017ee dovolit?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ekonomika by mohla b\u00fdt rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem pro m\u00edr na Ukrajin\u011b<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Stejn\u011b jako mnoz\u00ed ve Washingtonu, kde \u017eiji posledn\u00edch \u0161est desetilet\u00ed, se s\u00e1m sebe pt\u00e1m: Co dal\u0161\u00edho m\u00e1 rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin na mysli v souvislosti s v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b? V\u00e1lka, kter\u00e1 se vede s obrovsk\u00fdm nasazen\u00edm person\u00e1lu a zbran\u00ed, zat\u00edmco rusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly postoupily hluboko do ukrajinsk\u00fdch pohrani\u010dn\u00edch oblast\u00ed. Pro\u010d Putin nep\u0159ijme p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed?<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee si Rusko, kter\u00e9 je v sou\u010dasnosti pod p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fdmi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi sankcemi, skute\u010dn\u011b dovolit dal\u0161\u00ed postup na Ukrajin\u011b \u2013 zat\u00edmco m\u011bsta podle jednoho americk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edka vypadaj\u00ed jako pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd Berl\u00edn?<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd podnikatel s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdmi zku\u0161enostmi v Rusku mi \u0159ekl, \u017ee dv\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed banky \u2013 Sberbank a VTB \u2013 maj\u00ed dohromady pohled\u00e1vky z \u00fav\u011br\u016f v celkov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161i 310 miliard dolar\u016f. Poskytuj\u00ed \u00fav\u011bry s \u00farokovou sazbou kolem 20 procent \u2013 \u200b\u200bfirm\u00e1m i na hypot\u00e9ky. Rusk\u00fd HDP je 2,2 bilionu dolar\u016f, bez zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed odhadovan\u00e9ho pod\u00edlu \u010dern\u00e9ho trhu a\u017e 25 %.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pom\u011br rusk\u00e9ho dluhu k HDP je zhruba 16 % \u2013 \u201evelmi n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo,\u201c \u0159ekl. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 jin\u00e1 zem\u011b G20 nen\u00ed tak n\u00edzko. \u201ePutin se usm\u00edv\u00e1. Po\u010dk\u00e1.\u201c D\u00e1le uvedl, \u017ee pom\u011br dluhu USA k HDP je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 100 % a ob\u011b hlavn\u00ed strany nemaj\u00ed z\u00e1jem na jeho omezen\u00ed. St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh USA p\u0159esahuje 36 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f. \u201eDemokrat\u00e9 i republik\u00e1ni drancuj\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed pokladnu, aby dos\u00e1hli sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f. Jedin\u00e9 spole\u010dn\u00e9 rysy: devalvace dolaru. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee je to nekone\u010dn\u00fd zdroj. Ale sv\u011bt ztratil v dolar v\u00edru.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eCo tento chaos p\u0159inese do vyh\u0159\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00edho se sv\u011bta?\u201c zeptal se podnikatel. A s\u00e1m cynicky odpov\u011bd\u011bl: \u201eV USA? Nikoho to nezaj\u00edm\u00e1.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato hodnocen\u00ed jsem p\u0159edlo\u017eil ekonomovi, kter\u00fd dlouho pracoval v americk\u00e9m Feder\u00e1ln\u00edm rezervn\u00edm syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho hodnocen\u00ed: Anal\u00fdza podnikatele nazna\u010duje, \u017ee Rusko je siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a USA slab\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se zd\u00e1. To ho nep\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dilo. Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed je, jak produktivn\u00ed je rusk\u00e1 ekonomika \u2013 a kolik z n\u00ed jde do arm\u00e1dy. Rusk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka se sna\u017e\u00ed omezit inflaci (v sou\u010dasnosti se pohybuje kolem 10 %). S \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami nad 20 % je pro spole\u010dnosti v civiln\u00edm sektoru obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 dosahovat zisku. \u201eCiviln\u00ed sektor se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zmen\u0161\u00ed. Obrann\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti sice mohou zajistit kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd r\u016fst, ale nep\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k dlouhodob\u00e9 prosperit\u011b.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho z\u00e1v\u011br: \u201eRusk\u00e1 ekonomika je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dost slab\u00e1.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Vyj\u00e1d\u0159il tak\u00e9 pochybnosti ohledn\u011b ot\u00e1zky dluhu: \u201eRusko m\u00e1 sice n\u00edzk\u00fd dluh, ale mus\u00ed platit vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. To \u010din\u00ed rusk\u00fd dluh pro investory neatraktivn\u00edm. Nejsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee Putin m\u016f\u017ee prost\u011b \u201apo\u010dkat a uvid\u00ed\u2018 a ignorovat lidsk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Dluhov\u00e1 situace USA? Ne nutn\u011b v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e9. I kdy\u017e situace nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b ide\u00e1ln\u00ed, doned\u00e1vna byla je\u0161t\u011b zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e1. Trumpova administrativa a Kongres by to ale mohly zm\u011bnit. Pokud by byly schv\u00e1leny masivn\u00ed da\u0148ov\u00e9 \u0161krty bez \u0161krt\u016f ve v\u00fddaj\u00edch, mohlo by to zhor\u0161it inflaci a oslabit dolar. Jedn\u00e1 se v\u0161ak o dlouhodob\u00e9 riziko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomickou hrozbou pro USA podle ekonoma nen\u00ed ani tak dluh jako sp\u00ed\u0161e nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e1 cla. Pokud firmy nev\u011bd\u00ed, zda nov\u00e1 cla z\u016fstanou v platnosti, nebo budou zru\u0161ena, paralyzuje to investice v\u00edce ne\u017e dluh.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzpomn\u011bl jsem si na Scotta Bessenta, mana\u017eera hedgeov\u00e9ho fondu a Trumpova poradce, kter\u00fd byl zpo\u010d\u00e1tku pova\u017eov\u00e1n za \u201ep\u0159\u00edznivce Main Street\u201c. Kdy\u017e obhajoval Trumpovu celn\u00ed politiku v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b slovy \u201e\u010c\u00edna p\u00e1r cel spolkne\u201c, bylo jasn\u00e9: i on je jen dal\u0161\u00edm povzbuzovatelem v kabinetu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed expert, kter\u00fd je po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed v kontaktu s rusk\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi p\u0159edstaviteli, potvrdil, \u017ee \u00fadaje o dluhu uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9 m\u00fdm inform\u00e1torem byly zhruba spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 \u2013 s drobn\u00fdmi odchylkami. Ale: P\u0159edstava ekonomick\u00e9 stability Ruska a chaosu Ameriky je z\u00e1sadn\u011b myln\u00e1. \u201ePutin zvy\u0161uje vl\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00fddaje na v\u00e1lku. Tisknou se pen\u00edze. Rubl ztr\u00e1c\u00ed hodnotu, ceny rostou \u2013 inflace.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 tradi\u010dn\u011b neinvestuj\u00ed do akci\u00ed, ale hromad\u00ed pen\u00edze. Pr\u016fmysl si p\u016fj\u010duje pen\u00edze na v\u00fdrobu zbran\u00ed \u2013 za vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. Ale to vkladatele ned\u011bl\u00e1 bohat\u0161\u00edmi, proto\u017ee \u017eivotn\u00ed n\u00e1klady tak\u00e9 rostou. Inflace v Rusku roste. V USA kles\u00e1 \u2013 v dubnu \u010dinila 2,3 %, co\u017e je nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 za \u010dty\u0159i roky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ruskou ekonomickou prosperitu nelze posoudit bez zohledn\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch sankc\u00ed, rozvoje kryptom\u011bn, vlivu BRICS, dolaru a rostouc\u00ed ned\u016fv\u011bry v Trumpovu Ameriku jako spolehliv\u00e9ho partnera.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: Trump nebude schopen ukon\u010dit v\u00e1lku velk\u00fdm m\u00edrov\u00fdm summitem, jak se kdysi spekulovalo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko m\u00e1 ale na rozd\u00edl od Ukrajiny obrovsk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy, plynu a vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin \u2013 zdroj\u016f, po kter\u00fdch Trump, podnikatel v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b, tou\u017e\u00ed. On a Putin si zase pov\u00eddaj\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1 jsou m\u00edr a prosperita na dosah ruky \u2013 pro n\u011bkter\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ekonomika by mohla b\u00fdt rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem pro m\u00edr na Ukrajin\u011b Stejn\u011b jako mnoz\u00ed ve Washingtonu,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79542,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,565,22,2024],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79541"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79541"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79541\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}