{"id":79510,"date":"2025-05-24T00:29:15","date_gmt":"2025-05-23T22:29:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=79510"},"modified":"2025-05-23T17:52:55","modified_gmt":"2025-05-23T15:52:55","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-eu-hrozi-rusku-totalnim-obchodnim-embargem-misto-zachrany-vlastni-ekonomiky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/24\/alexandre-lemoine-eu-hrozi-rusku-totalnim-obchodnim-embargem-misto-zachrany-vlastni-ekonomiky\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: EU hroz\u00ed Rusku tot\u00e1ln\u00edm obchodn\u00edm embargem m\u00edsto z\u00e1chrany vlastn\u00ed ekonomiky"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kdy\u017e Rusko a Ukrajina zah\u00e1jily sv\u00e1 prvn\u00ed rozhovory po t\u0159ech letech, Evropsk\u00e1 unie se rozhodla zp\u0159\u00edsnit sankce proti Moskv\u011b. Brusel hroz\u00ed tvrd\u00fdmi \u00fadery pro ropn\u00fd, plyn\u00e1rensk\u00fd a finan\u010dn\u00ed sektor. EU nav\u00edc zva\u017euje i mo\u017enost \u00fapln\u00e9ho obchodn\u00edho embarga. Co by z toho mohlo vyplynout?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 komise chce sn\u00ed\u017eit cenov\u00fd strop pro ruskou ropu a za\u0159adit na sank\u010dn\u00ed seznam je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce lod\u00ed z rusk\u00e9 flotily duch\u016f. Brusel m\u00e1 v \u00famyslu zav\u00e9st omezen\u00ed i na plynovody Nord Stream 1 a Nord Stream 2. Krom\u011b toho chce pos\u00edlit sankce proti rusk\u00e9mu finan\u010dn\u00edmu sektoru. Evropsk\u00fd parlament d\u0159\u00edve ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee schv\u00e1lil n\u00e1vrh na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel na dovoz zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch produkt\u016f a hnojiv z Ruska a B\u011bloruska, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed se m\u00e1 konat 21. kv\u011btna.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00fd server\u00a0<\/span>Politico\u00a0<\/span><\/em>informuje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee org\u00e1ny EU zva\u017euj\u00ed zaveden\u00ed vysok\u00fdch cel, mo\u017en\u00e1 i \u00fapln\u00e9ho obchodn\u00edho embarga.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd velvyslanec ve Francii Alexej Me\u0161kov v rozhovoru pro ruskou tiskovou agenturu\u00a0<\/span>TASS<\/span><\/em>\u00a0poznamenal, \u017ee EU by m\u011bla\u00a0<\/span>zachr\u00e1nit svou vlastn\u00ed ekonomiku,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0m\u00edsto aby se sna\u017eila dusit tu ruskou. Podle n\u011bj jsou hrozby nov\u00fdmi sankcemi ze strany EU ne\u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ozn\u00e1men\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebudou bolestiv\u00e1: EU formulovala rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 sankce v oblasti energetiky, financ\u00ed a technologi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 po\u010d\u00ednaje lety 2022\u20132023 zavedla rekordn\u00ed po\u010det v\u00edce ne\u017e 13 000 omezen\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b demonstrativn\u00ed na podporu r\u00e9toriky jednoty. Nov\u00e9 kroky dodaj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e politickou ne\u017e ekonomickou v\u00e1hu a zachovaj\u00ed status quo.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Snaha EU sn\u00ed\u017eit cenov\u00fd strop rusk\u00e9 ropy a za\u0159adit na sank\u010dn\u00ed seznam je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce lod\u00ed Ghost Fleet sice zas\u00e1hne rusk\u00fd export, ale budou to jen do\u010dasn\u00e9 pot\u00ed\u017ee. Po n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch adaptace na nov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky se v\u0161e vr\u00e1t\u00ed do norm\u00e1lu, jak se to u\u017e n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t stalo u podobn\u00fdch sankc\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eSankce proti 150 tanker\u016fm Ghost Fleet zkomplikuj\u00ed v\u00fdvoz ropy, ale pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b povedou k restrukturalizaci dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f. Takov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed byla zavedena ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve a Rusko se jim \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b p\u0159izp\u016fsobilo,\u201c poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed analytici\u00a0<\/span>Freedom Finance Global<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o cenov\u00fd strop, od jeho zaveden\u00ed stoj\u00ed rusk\u00e1 ropa v\u00edce ne\u017e sou\u010dasn\u00fdch 60 dolar\u016f, ale to Rusku nezabr\u00e1nilo v p\u0159eprav\u011b ropy tankery do Indie a \u010c\u00edny (kter\u00e9 jsou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi odb\u011brateli). Proto i kdyby se EU rozhodla sn\u00ed\u017eit cenov\u00fd strop na 30 dolar\u016f za barel, nic se t\u00edm z\u00e1sadn\u011b nezm\u011bn\u00ed. Rusko se bude moci p\u0159izp\u016fsobit p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00edm sv\u00e9ho exportu do jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed a vyu\u017eit\u00edm alternativn\u00edch logistick\u00fdch tras.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V dubnu 2025 se rusk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy z v\u00fdvozu fosiln\u00edch paliv ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u0159edchoz\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edcem sn\u00ed\u017eily o 6 % a dos\u00e1hly 585 milion\u016f eur denn\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o omezen\u00ed plynovod\u016f Nord Stream, a\u0165 u\u017e jsou tato omezen\u00ed jak\u00e1koli, nijak neovlivn\u00ed v\u00fdvoz rusk\u00e9ho plynu do Evropy, jeliko\u017e plynovody byly sabotov\u00e1ny a nejsou vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny. Ze \u010dty\u0159 plynovod\u016f z\u016fstal neporu\u0161en\u00fd pouze jeden, ale Gazprom nikdy nez\u00edskal od N\u011bmecka povolen\u00ed k jeho provozu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148, pokud se EU rozhodne zav\u00e9st \u00fapln\u00fd z\u00e1kaz n\u00e1kupu rusk\u00e9ho plynu, nastol\u00ed t\u00edm p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky, a to i pro vlastn\u00ed pr\u016fmysl, kter\u00fd se ji\u017e t\u0159i roky pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s p\u0159e\u017eit\u00edm v podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch vysok\u00fdch cen energi\u00ed. S odchodem konkurenta se LNG na evropsk\u00e9m trhu stane je\u0161t\u011b dra\u017e\u0161\u00edm.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 pen\u00edze a pr\u016fmysl ut\u00edkaj\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na do Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Nejv\u00edce byl zasa\u017een petrochemick\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. Odliv kapit\u00e1lu z EU v roce 2023\u00a0<\/span>\u010dinil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 300 miliard eur. D\u0159\u00edve EU navrhovala zcela se zbavit rusk\u00e9ho plynu nejd\u0159\u00edve v roce 2027. Do t\u00e9 doby se objev\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed objemy LNG z USA, Kataru a Austr\u00e1lie.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti na rusk\u00e9m plynu n\u011bkter\u00e9 zem\u011b, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad Ma\u010farsko a Slovensko, nad\u00e1le odeb\u00edraj\u00ed plyn na z\u00e1klad\u011b dlouhodob\u00fdch smluv. \u00dapln\u00e9 embargo by mohlo zp\u016fsobit nedostatek energie a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaveden\u00edm prohibitivn\u00edch cel na rusk\u00e1 a b\u011blorusk\u00e1 hnojiva EU dostane do pot\u00ed\u017e\u00ed i sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed zem\u011bd\u011blce. To povede k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm cen\u00e1m potravin a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 inflaci v evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e1 sdru\u017een\u00ed zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f Copa a Cogeca bij\u00ed na poplach a sna\u017e\u00ed se p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit \u00fa\u0159ady, aby zaveden\u00ed cel odlo\u017eily alespo\u0148 o rok.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, \u017ee obchod mezi EU a Ruskem v posledn\u00edch letech prudce klesl, ale v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2025 EU zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed sv\u016fj v\u00fdvoz rusk\u00e9ho plynu a rusk\u00fdch hnojiv. Obavy z rostouc\u00edch cen v d\u016fsledku opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed levn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch rusk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f vedly ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 popt\u00e1vce po t\u011bchto produktech. Podle\u00a0<\/span>\u00fadaj\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Eurostatu tedy Evropa v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2025 nakoupila t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 30 % v\u00edce rusk\u00e9ho plynu ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se stejn\u00fdm obdob\u00edm roku 2024. \u010c\u00e1stka dos\u00e1hla 4,5 miliardy eur.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u00fanoru EU nakoupila hnojiva v hodnot\u011b 179 milion\u016f eur, co\u017e je o 8,5 % v\u00edce ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edci. V\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dtvrtina v\u0161ech hnojiv dov\u00e1\u017een\u00fdch do EU poch\u00e1z\u00ed z Ruska. D\u016fvodem je cenov\u00e1 v\u00fdhoda, proto\u017ee rusk\u00e1 hnojiva jsou o 15-20 % levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jejich analogy. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm odb\u011bratelem rusk\u00fdch hnojiv je Polsko, a to navzdory ve\u0161ker\u00e9 jeho protirusk\u00e9 r\u00e9torice. Rumunsko a Slovinsko zv\u00fd\u0161ily n\u00e1kup rusk\u00fdch hnojiv \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobn\u011b a\u017e \u0161estin\u00e1sobn\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 hnojiva hraj\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eitou roli i v evropsk\u00e9m zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed. Jejich absence by mohla v\u00e9st k ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdnos\u016fm a vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm cen\u00e1m potravin. Ztr\u00e1ty pro EU budou zna\u010dn\u00e9 i v odv\u011btv\u00edch kovod\u011bln\u00e9ho a stroj\u00edrensk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu. Podle Eurostatu se celkov\u00fd objem obchodu mezi Ruskem a EU v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00farovn\u00ed p\u0159ed kriz\u00ed v roce 2021 sn\u00ed\u017eil o v\u00edce ne\u017e 40 %.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o finan\u010dn\u00ed omezen\u00ed, mohla by zahrnovat konfiskaci zmrazen\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch aktiv. Evropsk\u00e1 komise v\u0161ak pro to zat\u00edm nena\u0161la pr\u00e1vn\u00ed z\u00e1minku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kdy\u017e Rusko a Ukrajina zah\u00e1jily sv\u00e1 prvn\u00ed rozhovory po t\u0159ech letech, Evropsk\u00e1 unie se rozhodla…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79511,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,41,22,125],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79510"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79510"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79510\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79511"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}