{"id":79359,"date":"2025-05-22T04:34:31","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T02:34:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=79359"},"modified":"2025-05-22T04:34:31","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T02:34:31","slug":"uriel-araujo-indicko-pakistansky-konflikt-eskaluje-v-eurasijskou-krizi-a-proveruje-mediacni-potencial-sos-a-brics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/22\/uriel-araujo-indicko-pakistansky-konflikt-eskaluje-v-eurasijskou-krizi-a-proveruje-mediacni-potencial-sos-a-brics\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt eskaluje v eurasijskou krizi a prov\u011b\u0159uje media\u010dn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l \u0160OS a BRICS"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt, zes\u00edlen\u00fd \u00fadajn\u00fdm zapojen\u00edm T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu a Izraele, zd\u016fraz\u0148uje pot\u0159ebu multilater\u00e1ln\u00edch platforem, jako jsou \u0160OS a BRICS, pro podporu dialogu. Navzdory v\u00fdzv\u00e1m tato f\u00f3ra nab\u00edzej\u00ed cesty k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se eurasijsk\u00e9 krize.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt, trval\u00e1 zlomov\u00e1 linie v jihoasijsk\u00e9 geopolitice, nyn\u00ed nabyl nov\u00fdch rozm\u011br\u016f a vyvinul se ve slo\u017eit\u00fd eurasijsk\u00fd probl\u00e9m s \u00fadajn\u00fdm zapojen\u00edm tak rozmanit\u00fdch akt\u00e9r\u016f, jako je T\u00e1lib\u00e1n a Izrael.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 eskalace, kterou charakterizovala\u00a0<\/span>indick\u00e1 operace Sindoor<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v\u00a0<\/span>reakci<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na\u00a0<\/span>teroristick\u00fd \u00fatok v Pahalgamu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 odvetn\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>operace Bunyan Marsoos<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, podtrhuje k\u0159ehkost bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee \u00fadajn\u011b USA zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, kter\u00e9 s charakteristickou bravurou ozn\u00e1mil prezident Donald Trump, do\u010dasn\u011b zastavilo nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 akce, jeho trvanlivost z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zkou. Lze si p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee mediace t\u0159et\u00edch stran, zejm\u00e9na ve sporn\u00e9 ot\u00e1zce D\u017eamm\u00fa a Ka\u0161m\u00edru, byla pro Indii dlouhodob\u011b tabu a Indie trv\u00e1 na bilater\u00e1ln\u00edch \u0159e\u0161en\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zapojen\u00ed mimoregion\u00e1ln\u00edch akt\u00e9r\u016f a m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se loajality T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu v\u0161ak vy\u017eaduj\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup. V tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 potenci\u00e1l \u2013 by\u0165 pln\u00fd v\u00fdzev \u2013 pro \u0160anghajskou organizaci pro spolupr\u00e1ci (\u0160OS) a BRICS slou\u017eit jako platformy pro dialog, nebo dokonce \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konflikt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Slo\u017eitost sou\u010dasn\u00e9 krize pramen\u00ed z jej\u00edho propojen\u00ed s akt\u00e9ry mimo subkontinent. Zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee T\u00e1lib\u00e1n, historicky spojenec P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, se st\u00e1le v\u00edce\u00a0<\/span>sbli\u017euje s Indi\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, co\u017e v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du vyvolalo pochybnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato zm\u011bna byla patrn\u00e1, kdy\u017e se indick\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010dn\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed S. D\u017eaj\u0161ankar\u00a0<\/span>setkal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s \u00fa\u0159aduj\u00edc\u00edm afgh\u00e1nsk\u00fdm ministrem zahrani\u010d\u00ed, kter\u00fd odsoudil \u00fatok v Pahalgamu, co\u017e znamenalo vz\u00e1cn\u00fd kontakt na politick\u00e9 \u00farovni od p\u0159evzet\u00ed moci T\u00e1lib\u00e1nem v roce 2021. Existuj\u00ed v\u0161ak\u00a0<\/span>nuance<\/span><\/a>\u00a0: frakce T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu v Kandah\u00e1ru, kter\u00e1 \u00fadajn\u011b udr\u017euje vazby s indick\u00fdmi \u00fa\u0159ady v Nov\u00e9m Dill\u00ed, kontrastuje s hlubok\u00fdmi vazbami s\u00edt\u011b Hakk\u00e1n\u00ed na Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d, co\u017e tak zd\u016fraz\u0148uje vnit\u0159n\u00ed rozpory, kter\u00e9 komplikuj\u00ed roli skupiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc obvin\u011bn\u00ed z\u00a0<\/span>izraelsk\u00e9 podpory Indie<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, v\u010detn\u011b poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed dron\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou ned\u00edlnou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 strategie Nov\u00e9ho Dill\u00ed, konflikt d\u00e1le internacionalizuj\u00ed a p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00ed spory samotn\u00e9ho Izraele. Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt tak ji\u017e v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nen\u00ed \u010dist\u011b bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e euroasijsk\u00fdm bodem ohniska s glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi d\u016fsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpovo tvrzen\u00ed o zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed vyvolalo\u00a0<\/span>kontroverzi<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, zejm\u00e9na v Indii, kde je vn\u00edm\u00e1no jako p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed pravomoc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed suverenitu. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 naopak uv\u00edtali vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed a jejich vyslanec v Pekingu v\u00fdslovn\u011b podpo\u0159il Trumpovu nab\u00eddku zprost\u0159edkovat v ot\u00e1zce Ka\u0161m\u00edru. Tolik k bilateralismu, proto\u017ee p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 otev\u0159enost mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu zapojen\u00ed ost\u0159e kontrastuje s odm\u00edt\u00e1n\u00edm rol\u00ed t\u0159et\u00edch stran ze strany Nov\u00e9ho Dill\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dadajn\u00e1 americk\u00e1 intervence, a\u010dkoli je do\u010dasn\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1, postr\u00e1d\u00e1 institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed podporu k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed trval\u00e9ho m\u00edru a jej\u00ed jednostrann\u00e9 ozn\u00e1men\u00ed Trumpem p\u0159ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00edmi prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edmi Indie nebo P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu vyvolalo v Nov\u00e9m Dill\u00ed politickou reakci. To podtrhuje pot\u0159ebu strukturovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edho, multilater\u00e1ln\u00edho r\u00e1mce pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00edch p\u0159\u00ed\u010din konfliktu, zejm\u00e9na sporu o Ka\u0161m\u00edr. \u0158e\u010deno bez obalu, chaos Z\u00e1padu, patrn\u00fd z Trumpov\u00fdch nevyzpytateln\u00fdch tvrzen\u00ed o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, podtrhuje jeho klesaj\u00edc\u00ed soudr\u017enost p\u0159i \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edch konflikt\u016f, jako je indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b zde by \u0160anghajsk\u00e1 organizace pro spolupr\u00e1ci (\u00a0<\/span>SCO<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) a BRICS mohly sehr\u00e1t kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli, a to i p\u0159es sv\u00e1 omezen\u00ed. SCO, kterou tvo\u0159\u00ed Indie, P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, \u010c\u00edna, Rusko a st\u00e1ty St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie, nab\u00edz\u00ed jedine\u010dnou platformu, jej\u00edmi\u017e \u010dleny jsou oba protivn\u00edci. Absence form\u00e1ln\u00edho mechanismu pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konflikt\u016f a historick\u00e1 neochota Nov\u00e9ho Dill\u00ed internacionalizovat ka\u0161m\u00edrskou ot\u00e1zku v\u0161ak p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>poznamenal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ji\u017e v roce 2021, potenci\u00e1l \u0160OS jako medi\u00e1tora v konfliktech je brzd\u011bn jej\u00edm zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ci sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e na \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed politick\u00fdch spor\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fraz organizace na region\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu a boj proti terorismu by v\u0161ak mohl poskytnout neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed prostor pro dialog, zejm\u00e9na vzhledem k potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed roli T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu jako komplikuj\u00edc\u00edho faktoru. Indie se zasazuje\u00a0<\/span>o<\/span><\/a>\u00a0zapojen\u00ed r\u00e1mc\u016f, jako je Quad, do Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu \u2013 pro\u010d ne \u0160OS? Jak jsem psal d\u0159\u00edve, \u00fa\u010dast Indie jak v Z\u00e1padem veden\u00e9 Quad, tak v \u0160OS je samotn\u00fdm zt\u011blesn\u011bn\u00edm role Nov\u00e9ho Dill\u00ed jako \u201e\u00a0<\/span>vyva\u017eovac\u00ed mocnosti<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jakkoli, agenda \u0160OS pro rok 2025, kter\u00e1 zahrnuje diskuse o stabilizaci Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, by mohla b\u00fdt vyu\u017eita k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edho terorismu \u2013 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9ho indick\u00e9ho probl\u00e9mu \u2013 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 k podpo\u0159e opat\u0159en\u00ed na budov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

BRICS mezit\u00edm p\u0159edstavuje dopl\u0148kovou cestu. Jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>argumentoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v roce 2022, ekonomick\u00e9 zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed BRICS a zapojen\u00ed Indie a \u010c\u00edny \u2013 ob\u011b zem\u011b se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed dominovan\u00e9ho Z\u00e1padem \u2013 z n\u00ed \u010din\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed f\u00f3rum pro m\u011bkkou diplomacii. Snaha P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu o vstup do BRICS, a\u010dkoli ji v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b blokuje Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed, podtrhuje touhu Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du integrovat se do tohoto bloku, co\u017e by mohlo podn\u00edtit spolupr\u00e1ci. Vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se role BRICS v podpo\u0159e dialogu mezi \u010dleny s odli\u0161n\u00fdmi z\u00e1jmy koneckonc\u016f\u00a0<\/span>nazna\u010duje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee ekonomick\u00e9 pob\u00eddky by mohly p\u0159ipravit cestu k politick\u00e9mu uvoln\u011bn\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad spole\u010dn\u00e9 iniciativy BRICS v oblasti infrastruktury nebo boje proti terorismu by mohly nep\u0159\u00edmo sn\u00ed\u017eit nap\u011bt\u00ed podporou vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti, a t\u00edm vytvo\u0159it podm\u00ednky pro m\u00edr.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdzvou samoz\u0159ejm\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 neochv\u011bjn\u00fd odpor Indie v\u016f\u010di mediaci t\u0159et\u00edch stran, zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00fd v jej\u00edm p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zapojen\u00ed oslabuje jej\u00ed suverenitu nad Ka\u0161m\u00edrem. Tento postoj je umocn\u011bn vnit\u0159n\u00ed dynamikou \u0160OS a BRICS, kde \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 podpora P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu a rusk\u00e9 vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Nov\u00fdm Dill\u00ed a Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dem omezuj\u00ed konsenzus. Fragmentovan\u00e1 struktura T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu a \u00fadajn\u00e9 z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 role Indie i P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu nav\u00edc podkop\u00e1vaj\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru. Tyto v\u00fdzvy v\u0161ak nejsou nep\u0159ekonateln\u00e9. \u0160OS by mohla zah\u00e1jit diplomacii druh\u00e9ho stupn\u011b, do kter\u00e9 by se zapojovaly nevl\u00e1dn\u00ed akt\u00e9ry s c\u00edlem budovat d\u016fv\u011bru, zat\u00edmco BRICS by mohla up\u0159ednost\u0148ovat hospod\u00e1\u0159skou spolupr\u00e1ci s c\u00edlem vytvo\u0159it vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy. Ob\u011b platformy d\u00edky sv\u00e9 multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed povaze nab\u00edzej\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b ru\u0161ivou alternativu k mediaci veden\u00e9 Z\u00e1padem, kter\u00e9 Indie pochopiteln\u011b ned\u016fv\u011b\u0159uje.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed mimoregion\u00e1ln\u00edch akt\u00e9r\u016f, jako je Taliban a Izrael, vol\u00e1 po \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edstupu k indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu konfliktu. Lze si p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee jednostrann\u00e9 nebo dvoustrann\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad\u00a0<\/span>L\u00e1haursk\u00e1 deklarace z roku 1999<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u010dasto selh\u00e1v\u00e1 kv\u016fli ned\u016fv\u011b\u0159e nebo vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm vliv\u016fm. \u0160OS a BRICS, i p\u0159es sv\u00e1 omezen\u00ed, poskytuj\u00ed platformy, kde se Indie a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n mohou zapojit pod rou\u0161kou region\u00e1ln\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce a obch\u00e1zet citliv\u00e9 aspekty p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 mediace. Nap\u0159\u00edklad protiteroristick\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed pod veden\u00edm \u0160OS by mohla \u0159e\u0161it obavy Indie ohledn\u011b milic\u00ed s\u00eddl\u00edc\u00edch v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, zat\u00edmco ekonomick\u00e1 f\u00f3ra BRICS by mohla motivovat Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d k omezen\u00ed takov\u00fdch aktivit v\u00fdm\u011bnou za obchodn\u00ed v\u00fdhody. Tyto kroky, i kdy\u017e jsou postupn\u00e9, by mohly vybudovat d\u016fv\u011bru nezbytnou pro v\u011bcn\u00fd dialog.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee v\u00fdvoj indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho konfliktu v pln\u011b eurasijsk\u00fd probl\u00e9m s \u00fadajn\u00fdm zapojen\u00edm T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu a Izraele zd\u016fraz\u0148uje pot\u0159ebu inovativn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f k m\u00edru. Trumpovo\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, a\u010dkoli je do\u010dasn\u00fdm odkladem, zd\u016fraz\u0148uje \u00faskal\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>ad hoc mediace<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. \u0160OS a BRICS, a\u010dkoli nejsou ur\u010deny k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konflikt\u016f, nab\u00edzej\u00ed d\u00edky sv\u00e9mu region\u00e1ln\u00edmu zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed a zapojen\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch stran jedine\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti k dialogu. Vyu\u017eit\u00edm sv\u00fdch platforem pro budov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry a hospod\u00e1\u0159skou spolupr\u00e1ci by tyto organizace mohly p\u0159ipravit cestu ke stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Ji\u017en\u00ed Asii, za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee se Indii poda\u0159\u00ed p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit k p\u0159ijet\u00ed multilateralismu. V jist\u00e9m smyslu by m\u011bly slou\u017eit jako zku\u0161ebn\u00ed p\u016fda pro multilateralismus a alternativn\u00ed mechanismy v nov\u011b vznikaj\u00edc\u00edm polycentrick\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD<\/a>. v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/em><\/p>\n

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Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt, zes\u00edlen\u00fd \u00fadajn\u00fdm zapojen\u00edm T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu a Izraele, zd\u016fraz\u0148uje pot\u0159ebu multilater\u00e1ln\u00edch platforem, jako jsou \u0160OS…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79360,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,79,220,129],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79359"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79359"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79359\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}