{"id":79217,"date":"2025-05-20T04:47:39","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T02:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=79217"},"modified":"2025-05-20T04:47:39","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T02:47:39","slug":"uriel-araujo-cinska-lodarska-kapacita-je-vice-nez-200krat-vetsi-nez-americka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/20\/uriel-araujo-cinska-lodarska-kapacita-je-vice-nez-200krat-vetsi-nez-americka\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 lo\u010fa\u0159sk\u00e1 kapacita je v\u00edce ne\u017e 200kr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e americk\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Unipol\u00e1rn\u00ed sv\u011bt miz\u00ed: \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dominance s kapacitou stavby lod\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 200kr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v USA odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed \u00fapadek americk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu. Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 s\u00edla Pekingu a lod\u011bnice s dvoj\u00edm vyu\u017eit\u00edm zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce, zat\u00edmco sankce Washingtonu a rozhovory mezi USA a Japonskem riskuj\u00ed obchodn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle ministra americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva Johna Phelana vedou USA s Japonskem jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o\u00a0<\/span>stavb\u011b lod\u00ed s dvoj\u00edm vyu\u017eit\u00edm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 tedy o stavb\u011b komer\u010dn\u00edch lod\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by m\u011bly b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9. Probl\u00e9m z americk\u00e9ho pohledu spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159edb\u011bhla i Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a stala se sv\u011btov\u00fdm l\u00eddrem v oblasti stavby lod\u00ed, a dominuje jak v objemu v\u00fdroby, tak v nov\u00fdch objedn\u00e1vk\u00e1ch. To je v\u0161ak jen \u0161pi\u010dka ledovce, pokud jde o tzv. \u201en\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed propast\u201c mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jen v roce 2024 vyrobila jedna \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 lod\u011bnice v\u00edce komer\u010dn\u00edch plavidel co do tun, ne\u017e cel\u00fd americk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl\u00a0<\/span>od druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Zat\u00edmco se Peking chlub\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee tvo\u0159\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e polovinu sv\u011btov\u00e9ho trhu s komer\u010dn\u00edmi lod\u011bmi, americk\u00fd pod\u00edl zase klesl, a to v dal\u0161\u00edm p\u016fsobiv\u00e9m \u010d\u00edsle, na\u00a0<\/span>pouh\u00fdch 0,1 %<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 dominance se nav\u00edc neomezuje pouze na komer\u010dn\u00ed plavidla \u2013 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 lod\u011bnice s dvoj\u00edm vyu\u017eit\u00edm, kter\u00e9 stav\u00ed civiln\u00ed i vojensk\u00e9 lod\u011b, posunuly n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo Lidov\u00e9 osvobozeneck\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy (PLAN) na flotilu\u00a0<\/span>v\u00edce ne\u017e 370 plavidel<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(podle zpr\u00e1vy Kongresov\u00e9 v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 slu\u017eby), ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s klesaj\u00edc\u00edmi 295 plavidly americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva. James Stavridis (b\u00fdval\u00fd vrchn\u00ed velitel spojeneck\u00fdch sil NATO) loni\u00a0<\/span>ozna\u010dil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0takov\u00fd stav za \u201eprobl\u00e9m\u201c. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee PLAN do roku 2030 dos\u00e1hne\u00a0<\/span>435 lod\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, co\u017e je r\u016fstov\u00e1 trajektorie, kter\u00e9 se USA prost\u011b nemohou vyrovnat.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edla je ji\u017e dlouho z\u00e1kladn\u00edm kamenem geopolitick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 moci, ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm rysem ka\u017ed\u00e9 supervelmoci. USA m\u011bly po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed jasnou p\u0159evahu v projekci glob\u00e1ln\u00ed moci nad sv\u011btov\u00fdmi oce\u00e1ny. P\u0159ed p\u011bti lety jsem v\u0161ak\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o tom, jak \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost v regionech, jako je Karibik, signalizovala rostouc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnost, kter\u00e1 by mohla tuto americkou hegemonii zpochybnit. Dnes nen\u00ed vzestup \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva jen sign\u00e1lem \u2013 je to realita, kter\u00e1 podtrhuje \u00fapadek statusu supervelmoci USA a odhaluje zranitelnosti z\u00e1padn\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f a dokonce i strategick\u00e9ho postoje NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e u\u017e mluv\u00edme o \u010d\u00edslech, v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd rozd\u00edl v stavb\u011b lod\u00ed mezi \u010c\u00ednou a USA je s\u00e1m o sob\u011b\u00a0<\/span>ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Podle samotn\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho \u00da\u0159adu pro n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed rozv\u011bdku (\u00da\u0159adu pro n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed rozv\u011bdku) \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 kapacita stavby lod\u00ed p\u0159evy\u0161uje kapacitu USA v\u00edce\u00a0<\/span>ne\u017e 200kr\u00e1t<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Stephen Biddle (mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fd seniorn\u00ed v\u011bdeck\u00fd pracovn\u00edk pro obrannou politiku v Rad\u011b pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy) a Eric Labs (vedouc\u00ed analytik pro n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edly a zbran\u011b v Rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9m \u00fa\u0159adu Kongresu), kte\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>p\u00ed\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pro Foreign Affairs, zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, jak v posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika letech rostly obavy z expanze \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva, kter\u00e9 v po\u010dtu lod\u00ed p\u0159ekonalo americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo s t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 400 plavidly ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s 295 americk\u00fdmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli jsou americk\u00e9 lod\u011b st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, pokro\u010dilej\u0161\u00ed a ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9 l\u00e9pe vy\u0161kolen\u00fdmi pos\u00e1dkami, v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 obrovsk\u00e1 kapacita \u010c\u00edny v oblasti stavby lod\u00ed, tvrd\u00ed Biddle a Labs, poskytuje v jak\u00e9mkoli dlouhodob\u00e9m konfliktu z\u00e1sadn\u00ed v\u00fdhodu a umo\u017e\u0148uje rychl\u00e9 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nebo nahrazen\u00ed flotily. Historicky byla pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 kapacita v n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed v\u00e1lce rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed, jak je vid\u011bt na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f nad Japonskem ve druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. Dnes Washington \u010del\u00ed jak\u00e9musi obr\u00e1cen\u00e9mu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, kdy pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 s\u00edla Pekingu hroz\u00ed, \u017ee v jak\u00e9mkoli dlouhodob\u00e9m v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i p\u0159em\u016f\u017ee americkou. Aby se tomu USA vyrovnaly, varuj\u00ed oba experti, musely by nal\u00e9hav\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it stavbu lod\u00ed, hromadit materi\u00e1ly a vyu\u017e\u00edt spojence, jako je Japonsko a Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee vyrovnat se \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 kapacit\u011b je v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nepraktick\u00e9. V jist\u00e9m smyslu se to redukuje na pr\u016fmyslovou s\u00edlu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 si vzpomeneme, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 v\u00fdrobn\u00ed s\u00edla nen\u00ed nov\u00fdm fenom\u00e9nem. Jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ji\u017e v roce 2023, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd v\u00fdrobn\u00ed sektor byl kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm motorem jej\u00edho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho vlivu, zejm\u00e9na v r\u00e1mci glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu. Pohled na grafy Sv\u011btov\u00e9 banky to jasn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>ilustruje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a ukazuje, \u017ee pod\u00edl \u010c\u00edny na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 produkci od roku 2004 prudce vzrostl, zat\u00edmco USA a dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed ekonomiky stagnovaly nebo klesly. Nav\u00edc je v dne\u0161n\u00ed dob\u011b \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd v\u00fdrobn\u00ed pr\u016fmysl automatizovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00fd, americk\u00fd nebo \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fd, pokud jde o \u201e\u00a0<\/span>hustotu robot\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c. Takov\u00e1 automatizace ve spojen\u00ed se st\u00e1tn\u00edmi dotacemi a centr\u00e1ln\u011b pl\u00e1novanou ekonomikou umo\u017e\u0148uje \u010c\u00edn\u011b vyr\u00e1b\u011bt lod\u011b v rozsahu a rychlosti, s jakou se USA ani nemohou srovn\u00e1vat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 reakce na tuto rostouc\u00ed propast byla kombinac\u00ed legislativn\u00edch a represivn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 odhaluj\u00ed zoufal\u00fd pokus \u010delit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed realit\u011b, kter\u00e1 ji\u017e nen\u00ed unipol\u00e1rn\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad znovuzaveden\u00fd z\u00e1kon SHIPS for America Act, podporovan\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00edmi pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdmi skupinami,\u00a0<\/span>se zam\u011b\u0159uje na<\/span><\/a>\u00a0majitele plavidel \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 v\u00fdroby sankcemi s c\u00edlem omezit \u010d\u00ednskou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dominanci. V r\u00e1mci t\u00e9to strategie byly nav\u00edc navr\u017eeny\u00a0<\/span>sankce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0proti \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm firm\u00e1m, jako je Cosco, lodn\u00ed gigant. Cosco tyto kroky\u00a0<\/span>odsoudilo<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a varovalo, \u017ee riskuj\u00ed eskalaci obchodn\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed a naru\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edho obchodu. Takov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed by skute\u010dn\u011b mohla odradit nez\u00e1padn\u00ed partnery, zejm\u00e9na na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm Jihu, kte\u0159\u00ed se spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na \u010d\u00ednskou lodn\u00ed dopravu, pokud jde o cenov\u011b dostupn\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed trasy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu v\u0161emu odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed v\u00fdvoj, jako je v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd americk\u00fd n\u00e1vrh Japonsku t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se dvoj\u00ed \u017ealoby na stavbu lod\u00ed, jak americk\u00e9 zoufalstv\u00ed, tak uzn\u00e1n\u00ed jeho vlastn\u00edch pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch nedostatk\u016f. Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by tuto mezeru p\u0159eklenuly. USA jednodu\u0161e a jednodu\u0161e postr\u00e1daj\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed kapacitu k veden\u00ed takov\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed. Jak jsem ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>poznamenal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, pokusy americk\u00e9ho stylu o vyu\u017eit\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9ho nacionalismu jako zbran\u011b \u2013 kter\u00e9 zahrnuj\u00ed pl\u00e1ny na \u201ep\u0159esun\u201c pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed \u2013 \u010dasto p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed nov\u00e1 rizika, v\u010detn\u011b obchodn\u00edch konflikt\u016f a naru\u0161en\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce. Z\u00e1kon o lod\u00edch a sankce v\u016f\u010di firm\u00e1m, jako je Cosco, mohou do\u010dasn\u011b utlumit dynamiku \u010c\u00edny, ale tak\u00e9 riskuj\u00ed izolaci USA ve sv\u011bt\u011b, kter\u00fd je st\u00e1le skepti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed k jej\u00edm jednostrann\u00fdm krok\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dok\u00e1\u017eou USA p\u0159ekonat tuto n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed mezeru? Odpov\u011b\u010f se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt bez obalu ne. Jak ji\u017e bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna poskytuje strategickou v\u00fdhodu v jak\u00e9koli dlouhodob\u00e9 konfrontaci a umo\u017e\u0148uje j\u00ed opravovat nebo vym\u011b\u0148ovat plavidla mnohem rychleji ne\u017e USA. Americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo \u010del\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>nahromad\u011bn\u00ed \u00fadr\u017eby<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f a\u00a0<\/span>zmen\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se flotile<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee do roku 2025 klesne na 287 lod\u00ed \u2013 zat\u00edmco \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 flotila se st\u00e1v\u00e1 schopn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a po\u010detn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 dominance v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed produkci nav\u00edc ohro\u017euje z\u00e1padn\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce, co\u017e tak\u00e9 odhaluje zranitelnosti NATO. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed aliance se pro obchod a vojenskou logistiku siln\u011b spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy, p\u0159esto\u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 kontrola nad stavbou lod\u00ed a p\u0159epravn\u00edmi trasami j\u00ed d\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u00e1ku k naru\u0161en\u00ed t\u011bchto tepen v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b vojensk\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f je \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed obraz takov\u00fd, \u017ee blok BRICS, v\u010detn\u011b \u010c\u00edny, m\u011bn\u00ed dynamiku glob\u00e1ln\u00edho obchodu a d\u00e1le naru\u0161uje vliv Z\u00e1padu veden\u00fd USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington tak \u010del\u00ed drsn\u00e9 realit\u011b: jeho\u00a0<\/span>n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159evaha<\/span><\/a>\u00a0jednodu\u0161e miz\u00ed. Vzestup Pekingu jako n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed mocnosti, podpo\u0159en\u00fd bezkonkuren\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fmyslovou z\u00e1kladnou, signalizuje novou \u00e9ru po unipolarit\u011b. USA mohou uvalit sankce a schvalovat legislativu, ale tato opat\u0159en\u00ed jsou sp\u00ed\u0161e reaktivn\u00ed ne\u017e transforma\u010dn\u00ed a riskuj\u00ed obchodn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed, ani\u017e by \u0159e\u0161ila ko\u0159en probl\u00e9mu \u2013 jejich vlastn\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd \u00fapadek. A\u0165 je to jakkoli, \u00fahel pohledu \u201eindustrializace\u201c je kl\u00ed\u010dem k pochopen\u00ed i prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho fenom\u00e9nu Trumpa. A takov\u00fd boj o reindustrializaci bude utv\u00e1\u0159et glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hu sil na nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed desetilet\u00ed. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b m\u00e1 \u010c\u00edna v tomto \u00fasil\u00ed \u2013 zdaleka \u2013 dominantn\u00ed v\u00fdhodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD<\/a>. v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/em><\/p>\n

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Unipol\u00e1rn\u00ed sv\u011bt miz\u00ed: \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dominance s kapacitou stavby lod\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 200kr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79218,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,627,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79217"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79217"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79217\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79218"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}