{"id":78876,"date":"2025-05-15T06:06:40","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T04:06:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=78876"},"modified":"2025-05-15T06:06:40","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T04:06:40","slug":"proc-jsou-mirova-jednani-mezi-ruskem-a-ukrajinou-odsouzena-k-zaniku-jeste-pred-zahajenim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/15\/proc-jsou-mirova-jednani-mezi-ruskem-a-ukrajinou-odsouzena-k-zaniku-jeste-pred-zahajenim\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro\u010d jsou m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou odsouzena k z\u00e1niku je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A pro\u010d v\u0161echny dosavadn\u00ed pokusy o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v konfliktu zkrachovaly<\/h3>\n

Diplomatick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed op\u011bt roste. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny se pozornost soust\u0159edila na moskevskou p\u0159ehl\u00eddku k 80. v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed Dne v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Nyn\u00ed se v\u0161echny zraky n\u00e1hle up\u00edraj\u00ed na Istanbul, kde by se p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou \u2013 prvn\u00ed od jara 2022 \u2013 mohla konat ji\u017e ve \u010dtvrtek.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdznam t\u011bchto potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch rozhovor\u016f nabral na obr\u00e1tk\u00e1ch. Co za\u010dalo reakc\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta Vladimira Putina na v\u00fdzvu Z\u00e1padu k 30denn\u00edmu p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed platn\u00e9mu od 12. kv\u011btna, se nyn\u00ed rozrostlo v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pod\u00edvanou s vysok\u00fdmi s\u00e1zkami. Ukrajinsk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Zelenskyj se zpo\u010d\u00e1tku zd\u00e1l b\u00fdt p\u0159ipraven n\u00e1vrh rovnou odm\u00edtnout, ale pod tlakem Donalda Trumpa \u2013 hrani\u010d\u00edc\u00edm s ultim\u00e1tem \u2013 zm\u011bnil kurz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zelenskyj v\u0161ak p\u0159edlo\u017eil sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed podm\u00ednky. Po\u017eadoval, aby se jedn\u00e1n\u00ed na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni konala okam\u017eit\u011b, nebo v\u016fbec, a pohrozil nov\u00fdmi sankcemi proti Rusku, pokud nebudou jeho podm\u00ednky ignorov\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n

V d\u016fsledku toho se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b istanbulsk\u00e9 sch\u016fzky prudce zv\u00fd\u0161ila. Jsou ale realistick\u00e1? Jsme skute\u010dn\u011b na pokraji pr\u016flomu?<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno: ne. \u010ctvrte\u010dn\u00ed sch\u016fzka, pokud se v\u016fbec uskute\u010dn\u00ed, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b sel\u017ee \u2013 ze dvou jasn\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Podm\u00ednky pro skute\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 rozhovory jednodu\u0161e neexistuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/h3>\n

Vojensk\u00e1 situace Ukrajiny z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejist\u00e1. Zat\u00edmco jej\u00ed s\u00edly st\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00ed obrann\u00e9 linie v Donbasu, mor\u00e1lka a lidsk\u00e1 s\u00edla sl\u00e1bnou. N\u011bkter\u00e9 pozice se viditeln\u011b hrout\u00ed. Politicky se v\u0161ak Kyjev i nad\u00e1le chov\u00e1, jako by m\u011bl navrch, a to d\u00edky podpo\u0159e tzv.\u00a0<\/span>\u201eKoalice ochotn\u00fdch\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0\u2013 Brit\u00e1nie, Francie a N\u011bmecka. Tyto evropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty soustavn\u011b br\u00e1n\u00ed jak\u00e9mukoli seri\u00f3zn\u00edmu \u00fasil\u00ed Washingtonu o rychl\u00fd m\u00edr.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zelensk\u00e9ho sou\u010dasn\u00e1 strategie je transparentn\u00ed: uklidnit Trumpa jen natolik, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo odporu, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 se vyhnout souhlasu s \u010d\u00edmkoli, co by mohlo Ukrajinu zav\u00e1zat k dohodnut\u00e9mu urovn\u00e1n\u00ed. Ani v oslaben\u00e9m stavu Kyjev neprojevuje ochotu d\u011blat smyslupln\u00e9 \u00fastupky \u2013 nebo dokonce p\u0159\u00edmo jednat s Moskvou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na rusk\u00e9 stran\u011b existuje jen mal\u00e1 motivace k tomu, aby se pod\u0159izovalo Z\u00e1padem \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9mu procesu, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je zajistit prezidentu Trumpovi diplomatick\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Rusko pevn\u011b dr\u017e\u00ed frontovou linii a systematicky roz\u0161i\u0159uje sv\u00e9 zisky. Nen\u00ed d\u016fvod nab\u00edzet p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f, kdy\u017e je dosahov\u00e1no pokroku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup Moskvy je jasn\u00fd: otestovat v\u00e1\u017enost Kyjeva prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fdch kontakt\u016f, ale vyhnout se z\u00e1vazku k jak\u00e9mukoli form\u00e1ln\u00edmu p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, dokud vojensk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 nep\u0159inese siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u00e1ky. V Kremlu existuje pragmatick\u00e1 touha z\u00edskat \u010das \u2013 dokon\u010dit pr\u00e1ci letos na ja\u0159e a v l\u00e9t\u011b a pak mluvit z pozice s\u00edly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 z\u00e1plava ultim\u00e1t, kter\u00e9 si vym\u011bnily Kyjev, Moskva a Washington, nebyla diplomaci\u00ed. Byla to hra politick\u00e9ho vyrovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed se na pokraji konce v\u00e1lky. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana doufala, \u017ee vyprovokuje druhou stranu k odm\u00edtnut\u00ed rozhovor\u016f, a t\u00edm z\u00edsk\u00e1 mor\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159evahu. Ve skute\u010dnosti se nikdo nijak zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 nesna\u017eil up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b vyjedn\u00e1vat.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

2. V\u0161echny p\u0159edchoz\u00ed pokusy o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed selhaly \u2013 a tento tak\u00e9 sel\u017ee.<\/span><\/h3>\n

Nezapom\u00ednejme na osud d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch snah: n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, moratorium na energetick\u00e9 \u00fatoky a tolik propagovan\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u201ena Velikonoce\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>\u201ek Dni v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0. V\u0161echna tato opat\u0159en\u00ed se zhroutila pod t\u00edhou nerealistick\u00fdch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, protich\u016fdn\u00fdch interpretac\u00ed a naprost\u00e9ho nedostatku vynucovac\u00edch mechanism\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku se USA pot\u00fdkaj\u00ed s n\u011bkolika protich\u016fdn\u00fdmi m\u00edrov\u00fdmi cestami v nad\u011bji, \u017ee z neslu\u010diteln\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f vytvo\u0159\u00ed urovn\u00e1n\u00ed. Nebyly v\u0161ak dosa\u017eeny \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 form\u00e1ln\u00ed dohody, nebyly podeps\u00e1ny \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 jednotn\u00e9 dokumenty ani zavedeny \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 skute\u010dn\u00e9 monitorovac\u00ed struktury. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana m\u00e1 svou vlastn\u00ed p\u0159edstavu o tom, co p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed obn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed. V\u00fdsledek? Sam\u00e1 r\u00e9torika, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edpravy na istanbulskou konferenci se siln\u011b podobaj\u00ed t\u011bmto p\u0159edchoz\u00edm ne\u00fasp\u011bch\u016fm. Nikdo doopravdy nev\u00ed, co je na programu. Nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda ob\u011b strany v\u016fbec sd\u00edlej\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed toho, o \u010dem se sch\u00e1zej\u00ed, aby projednaly. \u00darove\u0148 delegac\u00ed se tak\u00e9 m\u011bn\u00ed \u2013 dokonce i ot\u00e1zka, kdo p\u0159ijede, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nezodpov\u011bzena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zelenskyj trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee se z\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed osobn\u011b, ale pouze pokud se bude moci setkat p\u0159\u00edmo s Putinem. \u0158\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee chce diskutovat o 30denn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed \u2013 a o ni\u010dem jin\u00e9m. Putin se mezit\u00edm zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt nezaujat\u00fd performativn\u00ed diplomaci\u00ed. Nem\u00e1 d\u016fvod se objevovat jen proto, aby uspokojil z\u00e1padn\u00ed optiku, a je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee se zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed na konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed smluvn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, pokud a a\u017e nastane vhodn\u00e1 chv\u00edle.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ruskou stranu by zat\u00edm m\u011bl zastupovat prezidentsk\u00fd asistent Jurij U\u0161akov. Trump, kter\u00fd je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii, uvedl, \u017ee by\u00a0<\/span>\u201emo\u017en\u00e1\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0mohl poletit do Istanbulu \u2013 pokud by se mu cht\u011blo. Pokud ne, mohl by americk\u00fd t\u00fdm v\u00e9st ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Marco Rubio spolu s poradci Keithem Kelloggem a Stevem Witkoffem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co to v\u0161echno znamen\u00e1 v praxi?<\/span><\/h3>\n

V nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b delegace z Moskvy a Kyjeva doraz\u00ed do Istanbulu, uspo\u0159\u00e1daj\u00ed odd\u011blen\u00e1 setk\u00e1n\u00ed s americk\u00fdmi a tureck\u00fdmi zprost\u0159edkovateli a odjedou s neur\u010dit\u00fdm z\u00e1vazkem\u00a0<\/span>\u201epokra\u010dovat v diskus\u00edch\u201c.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0V nejhor\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se nesejdou v\u016fbec \u2013 p\u0159ed odjezdem si promluv\u00ed pouze s Ameri\u010dany a Turky a budou se navz\u00e1jem obvi\u0148ovat ze sabot\u00e1\u017ee procesu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by dlouho sp\u00edc\u00ed mrtvola zn\u00e1m\u00e1 jako\u00a0<\/span>\u201eukrajinsk\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd proces\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0mohla je\u0161t\u011b o n\u011bco d\u00e9le d\u00fdchat. V nejhor\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ji m\u016f\u017eeme ofici\u00e1ln\u011b prohl\u00e1sit za mrtvou \u2013 a ve\u0161ker\u00e9 nad\u011bje na skute\u010dn\u00fd pokrok budou pozastaveny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zda je to trag\u00e9die, nebo \u00faleva, z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na \u00fahlu pohledu. Jedna v\u011bc je ale jist\u00e1: ve \u010dtvrtek \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 m\u00edrov\u00e1 dohoda nep\u0159ijde. Istanbulsk\u00fd summit bude dal\u0161\u00ed kapitolou v dlouh\u00e9m a cynick\u00e9m divadle diplomacie, kde ka\u017ed\u00fd hr\u00e1\u010d vstupuje na sc\u00e9nu s hlubok\u00fdm v\u011bdom\u00edm, jak sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 skon\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Koment\u00e1\u0159 od\u00a0\u00a0Vitalija Rjum\u0161ina<\/strong>\u00a0, novin\u00e1\u0159e a politick\u00e9ho analytika<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A pro\u010d v\u0161echny dosavadn\u00ed pokusy o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v konfliktu zkrachovaly Diplomatick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed op\u011bt roste. Je\u0161t\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":78877,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[295,3788,1060,1503,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78876"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78876"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78876\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78878,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78876\/revisions\/78878"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}