{"id":78829,"date":"2025-05-15T00:27:46","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T22:27:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=78829"},"modified":"2025-05-14T17:29:57","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T15:29:57","slug":"andrew-korybko-jemen-dal-trumpovi-nekolik-lekci-ktere-by-mohl-uplatnit-vuci-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/15\/andrew-korybko-jemen-dal-trumpovi-nekolik-lekci-ktere-by-mohl-uplatnit-vuci-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Jemen dal Trumpovi n\u011bkolik lekc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by mohl uplatnit v\u016f\u010di Ukrajin\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pou\u010den\u00ed z Trumpova jemensk\u00e9ho debaklu by mohlo ovlivnit jeho budouc\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed ohledn\u011b Ukrajiny.<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u011bt novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f den\u00edku New York Times (NYT) spolupracovalo na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed podrobn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy na t\u00e9ma \u201e\u00a0Pro\u010d Trump n\u00e1hle vyhl\u00e1sil v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nad H\u00fat\u00edovy milic\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>\u201c. Pokud to \u010das dovol\u00ed, stoj\u00ed za to si ji p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst celou, ale tento \u010dl\u00e1nek shrne a analyzujeme jej\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry. Nejprve n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk CENTCOMu, gener\u00e1l Michael Kurilla, navrhl osmim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed a\u017e desetim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed kampa\u0148 na degradaci protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f p\u0159ed proveden\u00edm c\u00edlen\u00fdch atent\u00e1t\u016f podobn\u00fdch izraelsk\u00fdm, ale Trump se m\u00edsto toho rozhodl pro 30 dn\u00ed. To je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed americk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd p\u0159edstavitel v regionu ji\u017e v\u011bd\u011bl, jak po\u010detn\u00e1 je protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f a jak dlouho by trvalo, ne\u017e by byla v\u00e1\u017en\u011b po\u0161kozena, co\u017e ukazuje, \u017ee Pentagon ji\u017e pova\u017eoval H\u00fat\u00edyi ovl\u00e1dan\u00fd severn\u00ed Jemen za\u00a0region\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnost\u00a0<\/a>, zat\u00edmco Trump se cht\u011bl vyhnout vlekouc\u00ed v\u00e1lce. Nen\u00ed tedy divu, \u017ee se USA b\u011bhem prvn\u00edho m\u011bs\u00edce nepoda\u0159ilo z\u00edskat vzdu\u0161nou p\u0159evahu, a proto do t\u00e9 doby ztratily n\u011bkolik dron\u016f MQ-9 Reaper a vystavily jednu ze sv\u00fdch letadlov\u00fdch lod\u00ed neust\u00e1l\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Munice v hodnot\u011b 1 miliardy dolar\u016f, kter\u00e1 byla b\u011bhem tohoto obdob\u00ed vynalo\u017eena, prohloubila ji\u017e existuj\u00edc\u00ed rozpory v r\u00e1mci administrativy ohledn\u011b toho, zda tato bombardovac\u00ed kampa\u0148 st\u00e1la za rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1klady. Nov\u00fd p\u0159edseda Sboru n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk\u016f \u0161t\u00e1b\u016f, gener\u00e1l John Caine, se ob\u00e1val, \u017ee by to mohlo od\u010derpat zdroje z asijsko-pacifick\u00e9ho regionu. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee hlavn\u00edm strategick\u00fdm c\u00edlem Trumpovy administrativy je \u201eoto\u010dit se (zp\u011bt) k Asii\u201c za \u00fa\u010delem siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edho zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed \u010c\u00edny, byl tento n\u00e1zor pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed v Trumpov\u00fdch kone\u010dn\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dtech.<\/p>\n

Om\u00e1n mu \u00fadajn\u011b poskytl \u201edokonalou nab\u00eddku\u201c t\u00edm, \u017ee sv\u00e9mu vyslanci Stevovi Witkoffovi, kter\u00fd je nav\u0161t\u00edvil v r\u00e1mci\u00a0jadern\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f USA s \u00cdr\u00e1nem\u00a0<\/a>, navrhl, aby USA p\u0159estaly bombardovat H\u00fat\u00edy a z\u00e1rove\u0148 p\u0159estaly \u00fato\u010dit na americk\u00e9 lod\u011b, ale ne na lod\u011b, kter\u00e9 pova\u017euj\u00ed za u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 pro Izrael. To upozor\u0148uje na nadm\u011brnou diplomatickou roli t\u00e9to zem\u011b v region\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech, ale tak\u00e9 to ukazuje, \u017ee USA si dosud nebyly jist\u00e9, jak ukon\u010dit svou kampa\u0148 tak, aby si zachr\u00e1nily tv\u00e1\u0159, p\u0159esto\u017ee si ji\u017e uv\u011bdomovaly, \u017ee selhala.<\/p>\n

Zva\u017eovaly se dv\u011b mo\u017enosti: prodlou\u017een\u00ed operac\u00ed o dal\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc, proveden\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed \u201esvobody plavby\u201c a vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, pokud na n\u011b H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 neza\u010dnou st\u0159\u00edlet; nebo pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v kampani a z\u00e1rove\u0148 pos\u00edlen\u00ed kapacity m\u00edstn\u00edch jemensk\u00fdch spojenc\u016f zah\u00e1jit dal\u0161\u00ed ofenzivu na severu. Ob\u011b mo\u017enosti byly \u00fadajn\u011b zru\u0161eny ve prosp\u011bch Trumpova n\u00e1hl\u00e9ho ozn\u00e1men\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed pot\u00e9, co dal\u0161\u00ed americk\u00fd letoun spadl z letadlov\u00e9 lodi, americk\u00fd \u00fatok zabil v Jemenu des\u00edtky migrant\u016f a H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 zas\u00e1hli leti\u0161t\u011b Ben Guriona.<\/p>\n

Z\u00a0zpr\u00e1vy NYT lze vyvodit p\u011bt z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f. Za prv\u00e9, severn\u00ed Jemen ovl\u00e1dan\u00fd H\u00fat\u00edy je ji\u017e region\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnost\u00ed a\u00a0jej\u00edm je ji\u017e n\u011bjakou dobu. Toto postaven\u00ed dos\u00e1hli navzdory p\u0159edchoz\u00ed dlouholet\u00e9 bombardovac\u00ed kampani a\u00a0prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 blok\u00e1d\u011b koalice v\u00a0Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Tento p\u016fsobiv\u00fd v\u00fdkon sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o\u00a0jejich odolnosti a\u00a0\u00fa\u010dinnosti strategi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zavedli. Hornat\u00e1 geografie severn\u00edho Jemenu v\u00a0tom nepochybn\u011b sehr\u00e1la roli, ale nebyla jedin\u00fdm faktorem.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm z\u00e1v\u011brem je, \u017ee Trumpovo rozhodnut\u00ed povolit \u010dasov\u011b velmi omezenou bombardovac\u00ed kampa\u0148 bylo proto od za\u010d\u00e1tku odsouzeno k z\u00e1niku. Bu\u010f nebyl pln\u011b informov\u00e1n o tom, \u017ee se severn\u00ed Jemen ji\u017e stal region\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnost\u00ed, mo\u017en\u00e1 kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee vojen\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 se sami cenzurovali ze strachu, \u017ee budou propu\u0161t\u011bni, pokud by ho rozru\u0161ili, nebo m\u011bl postrann\u00ed \u00famysly, kdy\u017e nechal USA bombardovat Jemen jen kr\u00e1tkou dobu. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b neexistovala mo\u017enost, \u017ee by H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 byli zni\u010deni b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/p>\n

Optika je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 pro ka\u017edou administrativu a Trumpova druh\u00e1 administrativa ji up\u0159ednost\u0148uje v\u00edce ne\u017e kter\u00e1koli jin\u00e1 v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 pam\u011bti. T\u0159et\u00edm z\u00e1v\u011brem v\u0161ak je, \u017ee se i tak ukvapen\u011b st\u00e1hl, jakmile se strategick\u00e1 rizika za\u010dala spir\u00e1lovit\u011b zvy\u0161ovat a n\u00e1klady se za\u010daly hromadit, m\u00edsto aby se vzdorovit\u011b zdvojn\u00e1sobily. To ukazuje, \u017ee z\u00e1jmy spojen\u00e9 s egem a odkazem ne v\u017edy ur\u010duj\u00ed jeho politick\u00e9 formulace. D\u016fle\u017eitost spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee nikdo si proto nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jist\u00fd, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zhroucen\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f\u00a0<\/a>z Ukrajiny neute\u010de\u00a0.<\/p>\n

V n\u00e1vaznosti na v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9, p\u0159ijet\u00ed nevy\u017e\u00e1dan\u00e9ho n\u00e1vrhu Om\u00e1nu, kter\u00fd vedl k \u201edokonal\u00e9mu p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed\u201c, Trumpovou administrativou ukazuje, \u017ee bude naslouchat n\u00e1vrh\u016fm sp\u0159\u00e1telen\u00fdch zem\u00ed na zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed konflikt\u016f, do kter\u00fdch se USA zapletly, co\u017e by se mohlo vztahovat i na Ukrajinu. T\u0159i st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, kter\u00e9 Trump tento t\u00fdden nav\u0161t\u00edv\u00ed, sehr\u00e1ly roli bu\u010f v po\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed rozhovor\u016f, nebo v usnad\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bn mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou, tak\u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee se pod\u011bl\u00ed o n\u011bjak\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 n\u00e1vrhy na p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed patov\u00e9 situace.<\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd faktor se v dne\u0161n\u00ed dob\u011b vzn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed nad v\u0161\u00edm, co USA d\u011blaj\u00ed, co\u017e je jeden z uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d Trump n\u00e1hle ukon\u010dil svou ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou bombardovac\u00ed kampa\u0148 proti H\u00fat\u00ed\u016fm pot\u00e9, co ho jeho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 informovali, \u017ee pl\u00fdtv\u00e1 cennou munic\u00ed, kterou by bylo lep\u0161\u00ed poslat do Asie. Stejn\u011b tak by Trumpa mohly p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit podobn\u00e9 argumenty ohledn\u011b strategick\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f na vzdorovit\u00e9 zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed podpory Ukrajiny v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zhroucen\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f, kter\u00e9 by mu mohly sd\u011blit st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/p>\n

Pokud propoj\u00edme ponau\u010den\u00ed z Trumpova jemensk\u00e9ho debaklu s jeho pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm \u00fasil\u00edm o ukon\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu, je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee by v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zhroucen\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f zpo\u010d\u00e1tku instinktivn\u011b zdvojn\u00e1sobil podporu Ukrajiny, jen aby ho brzy pot\u00e9 odradili jeho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 a\/nebo sp\u0159\u00e1telen\u00e9 zem\u011b. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b by pro n\u011bj bylo nejlep\u0161\u00ed, kdyby nyn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty sv\u00e9 zem\u011b jednodu\u0161e sn\u00ed\u017eil, m\u00edsto aby je d\u00e1le prohluboval, ale jeho st\u00e1le emotivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky o Putinovi nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee by ho mohl vinit a p\u0159ehnan\u011b reagovat, pokud by rozhovory zkrachovaly.<\/p>\n

Je proto d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy jindy, aby m\u00edrumilovn\u00e9 zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed vliv na USA, okam\u017eit\u011b sd\u00edlely ve\u0161ker\u00e9 kreativn\u00ed diplomatick\u00e9 n\u00e1vrhy, kter\u00e9 by mohly m\u00edt na mysli k prolomen\u00ed patov\u00e9 situace mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou. Trump se pl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k debaklu podobn\u00e9mu jemensk\u00e9mu na Ukrajin\u011b, i kdy\u017e s potenci\u00e1ln\u011b jadern\u00fdm rizikem vzhledem k rusk\u00e9mu strategick\u00e9mu arzen\u00e1lu, ale st\u00e1le je \u010das mu odvr\u00e1tit, pokud se objev\u00ed \u201edokonal\u00fd \u00fatok\u201c a on je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee jeho p\u0159ijet\u00ed by pomohlo jeho \u201eoto\u010den\u00ed (zp\u011bt) k Asii\u201c.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pou\u010den\u00ed z Trumpova jemensk\u00e9ho debaklu by mohlo ovlivnit jeho budouc\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed ohledn\u011b Ukrajiny. P\u011bt novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":78830,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2181,1400,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78829"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78829"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78829\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78829"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78829"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78829"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}