{"id":78720,"date":"2025-05-14T00:11:12","date_gmt":"2025-05-13T22:11:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=78720"},"modified":"2025-05-13T11:56:03","modified_gmt":"2025-05-13T09:56:03","slug":"thomas-roper-je-mozne-reseni-sporu-mezi-usa-a-iranem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/14\/thomas-roper-je-mozne-reseni-sporu-mezi-usa-a-iranem\/","title":{"rendered":"Thomas R\u00f6per: Je mo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed sporu mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

O v\u00edkendu prob\u011bhlo nov\u00e9 kolo jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a USA ohledn\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu a americk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed. Je mo\u017en\u00e1 dohoda?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

O v\u00edkendu prob\u011bhla mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem m\u00e1lo pov\u0161imnut\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v souvislosti s ud\u00e1lostmi kolem Ukrajiny, ale podle n\u00e1sledn\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed byla tato jedn\u00e1n\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1na pozitivn\u011b. \u00cdr\u00e1n se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt ochoten omezit obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu, zat\u00edmco USA jsou z\u0159ejm\u011b ochotny ustoupit od sv\u00fdch maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch po\u017eadavk\u016f. Om\u00e1n, kde jedn\u00e1n\u00ed prob\u00edhala, uvedl, \u017ee byla projedn\u00e1na \u201eorigin\u00e1ln\u00ed\u201c \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zde p\u0159ekl\u00e1d\u00e1m obecn\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed\u00a0vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edch pozic obou stran\u00a0<\/span>od experta , kter\u00e9 jsem shledal u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fdm pro pochopen\u00ed.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tek p\u0159ekladu:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Od vyh\u00fdb\u00e1n\u00ed se v\u00e1lce k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed krize: Strategie realist\u016f v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 ot\u00e1zce<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u010cty\u0159i roky po diplomatick\u00e9m \u00fasil\u00ed z roku 2021 a po obdob\u00edch zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed se v\u0161echny strany zapojen\u00e9 do \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky vr\u00e1tily k jednac\u00edmu stolu s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edstupy.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

od Briana Hudsona | Modern\u00ed diplomacie<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m programu mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty jsou v citliv\u00e9 a slo\u017eit\u00e9 f\u00e1zi. \u010cty\u0159i roky po diplomatick\u00e9m \u00fasil\u00ed z roku 2021 a po obdob\u00edch zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed se ob\u011b strany vr\u00e1tily k jednac\u00edmu stolu s odli\u0161n\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edstupy. Po dvou kolech rozhovor\u016f a nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch konzultac\u00ed v Maskatu a \u0158\u00edm\u011b skupina analytik\u016f z r\u016fzn\u00fdch z\u00e1padn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00ed a think tank\u016f \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>Carnegie Foundation<\/span><\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span>Middle East Institute<\/span><\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span>Stimson Center<\/span><\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span>Responsible Statecraft<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>The National Interest<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 v\u0161ichni z realistick\u00e9ho hlediska hodnot\u00ed sou\u010dasnou situaci ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u0159edchoz\u00edmi f\u00e1zemi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle jejich n\u00e1zoru se USA \u2013 nyn\u00ed pod veden\u00edm Trumpovy administrativy \u2013 sna\u017e\u00ed vyhnout n\u00e1kladn\u00e9mu a v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9mu vojensk\u00e9mu konfliktu a jdou diplomatickou cestou. Na druhou stranu \u00cdr\u00e1n, kter\u00fd \u010del\u00ed oslaben\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed schopnosti a v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krizi, zaujal v\u016f\u010di jadern\u00fdm jedn\u00e1n\u00edm (JCPOA) um\u00edrn\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed postoj. Z pohledu tohoto analytick\u00e9ho proudu tento \u010dl\u00e1nek hodnot\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00e9, v\u00fdzvy a p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch diskus\u00ed v p\u011bti kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch oblastech a zd\u016fraz\u0148uje intelektu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj a strategick\u00e9 sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to my\u0161lenkov\u00e9 \u0161koly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Technick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj a v\u00fdzvy k ov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h4>\n

Z tohoto pohledu je jedn\u00edm z hlavn\u00edch rozd\u00edl\u016f mezi sou\u010dasn\u00fdmi jedn\u00e1n\u00edmi a p\u016fvodn\u00edmi rozhovory o JCPOA v\u00fdznamn\u00fd pokrok \u00cdr\u00e1nu v jadern\u00fdch technologi\u00edch. Pot\u00e9, co USA v roce 2018 jednostrann\u011b odstoupily od JCPOA, \u00cdr\u00e1n rychle roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il sv\u00e9 kapacity na obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu a v\u00fdrobu \u0161t\u011bpn\u00e9ho materi\u00e1lu. Tento technologick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v oblasti obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed vysoce \u010dist\u00e9ho uranu \u2013 vyvolal v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 obavy ohledn\u011b doby, kterou \u00cdr\u00e1nu zabere dosa\u017een\u00ed \u201ejadern\u00e9ho pr\u016flomu\u201c. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee se toto okno p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti z\u00fa\u017eilo a nyn\u00ed vy\u017eaduje p\u0159ezkum opat\u0159en\u00ed k monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k t\u011bmto okolnostem je pro jakoukoli budouc\u00ed dohodu kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9ho ov\u011b\u0159ovac\u00edho mechanismu s vyu\u017eit\u00edm modern\u00edch monitorovac\u00edch technologi\u00ed. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zachov\u00e1na pr\u00e1va \u00cdr\u00e1nu jako \u010dlena Smlouvy o ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v r\u00e1mci m\u00edrov\u00e9ho vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00e9 energie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed soudr\u017enost a diplomatick\u00fd jazyk<\/span><\/h4>\n

Podle tohoto analytick\u00e9ho trendu byla soudr\u017enost sv\u011btov\u00fdch mocnost\u00ed a dopl\u0148kov\u00e1 role region\u00e1ln\u00edch medi\u00e1tor\u016f, jako jsou Om\u00e1n a Japonsko, jedn\u00edm z kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch prvk\u016f \u00fasp\u011bchu p\u016fvodn\u00edho JCPOA. Zachov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to soudr\u017enosti je pova\u017eov\u00e1no za kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 pro nov\u00e9 kolo rozhovor\u016f \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v kontextu, v n\u011bm\u017e \u010c\u00edna a Rusko vystupuj\u00ed jako akt\u00e9\u0159i s nez\u00e1visl\u00fdmi a n\u011bkdy protich\u016fdn\u00fdmi z\u00e1jmy v\u016f\u010di Z\u00e1padu. Vytvo\u0159en\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u00edho konsensu ohledn\u011b spole\u010dn\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f je proto o to d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analytici v t\u00e9to skupin\u011b prosazuj\u00ed postupn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup, kter\u00fd up\u0159ednost\u0148uje postupn\u00e9 budov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e trv\u00e1n\u00ed na okam\u017eit\u00e9 komplexn\u00ed dohod\u011b. Jazyk diplomacie se mus\u00ed odklonit od r\u00e1mc\u016f zalo\u017een\u00fdch na hrozb\u00e1ch a vytvo\u0159it prostor pro vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 porozum\u011bn\u00ed, legitimn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy a zamezen\u00ed dezinterpretac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed libyjsk\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti: Neust\u00e1l\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h4>\n

\u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed t\u00e9to my\u0161lenkov\u00e9 \u0161koly je debata o libyjsk\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m odzbrojen\u00ed a jeho dopadu na \u00cdr\u00e1n. \u201eLibyjsk\u00fd model\u201c, kter\u00fd je propagov\u00e1n jako ide\u00e1l ur\u010dit\u00fdmi politick\u00fdmi skupinami v USA a Izraeli, je v Teher\u00e1nu vn\u00edm\u00e1n se skepticismem a znepokojen\u00edm. Svr\u017een\u00ed Muammara Kadd\u00e1f\u00edho po \u00fapln\u00e9m zni\u010den\u00ed libyjsk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch a raketov\u00fdch kapacit je \u00cdr\u00e1nem vn\u00edm\u00e1no jako d\u016fkaz nespolehliv\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk Z\u00e1padu a k\u0159ehkosti diplomatick\u00fdch dohod. Toto historick\u00e9 ponau\u010den\u00ed proto logicky ovliv\u0148uje strategick\u00e9 \u00favahy \u00cdr\u00e1nu a vede Teher\u00e1n k udr\u017een\u00ed sv\u00e9 odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00edly a k zaujmut\u00ed opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed pozice. Z tohoto pohledu libyjsk\u00fd model slou\u017e\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu nikoli jako inspirace, ale jako varovn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washingtonsk\u00e1 postupn\u00e1 strategie: m\u011bkk\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed, nebo vyu\u017eit\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed?<\/span><\/h4>\n

Analytici z jin\u00e9 skupiny se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee nov\u00e1 americk\u00e1 administrativa uplat\u0148uje postupn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup. Vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 symbolick\u00fd vojensk\u00fd tlak a z\u00e1rove\u0148 ponech\u00e1v\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 kan\u00e1ly, aby p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dila \u00cdr\u00e1n k uzav\u0159en\u00ed nov\u00e9 dohody. V tomto kontextu je interpretov\u00e1no nasazen\u00ed bombard\u00e9r\u016f dlouh\u00e9ho doletu a omezen\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 \u00fadery proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm v regionu. Odstran\u011bn\u00ed po\u017eadavku na \u00fapln\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 z\u0159eknut\u00ed se jadern\u00e9ho programu z n\u00e1vrh\u016f jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v Om\u00e1nu v\u0161ak lze vn\u00edmat jako zn\u00e1mku realismu v nov\u00e9 politice USA. Tato zm\u011bna kurzu by mohla otev\u0159\u00edt dve\u0159e k dohod\u011b, kter\u00e1 by z\u00e1rove\u0148 zohled\u0148ovala strategick\u00e9 a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strategick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti a budouc\u00ed \u00favahy<\/span><\/h4>\n

Jin\u00fd analytick\u00fd pohled tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed by mohla poskytnout kl\u00ed\u010dovou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho tlaku na \u00cdr\u00e1n a zlep\u0161en\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed situace v zemi. \u00dasp\u011bch v\u0161ak z\u00e1vis\u00ed na tom, zda se ob\u011b strany odklon\u00ed od konfronta\u010dn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f, jednostrann\u00e9ho maximalismu a jazyka zalo\u017een\u00e9ho na hrozb\u00e1ch. \u00cdr\u00e1n pot\u0159ebuje dohodu, kter\u00e1 nejen zaru\u010d\u00ed zachov\u00e1n\u00ed jeho technologick\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 nab\u00eddne konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky. Pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty vy\u017eaduje dosa\u017een\u00ed trval\u00e9 dohody n\u00e1vrat k jazyku porozum\u011bn\u00ed, efektivn\u00ed ov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed a skute\u010dn\u00fd multilateralismus.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/span><\/h4>\n

Vzhledem k zde nast\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdm n\u00e1zor\u016fm pragmaticko-realistick\u00e9 frakce mezi analytiky lze doj\u00edt k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsko-americk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed zlom v region\u00e1ln\u00edch i glob\u00e1ln\u00edch vztaz\u00edch. Pokud ob\u011b strany, pou\u010den\u00e9 z minul\u00fdch zku\u0161enost\u00ed, p\u0159istoup\u00ed k nov\u00e9 f\u00e1zi s realistick\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstupem a vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdm porozum\u011bn\u00edm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm a ekonomick\u00fdm pot\u0159eb\u00e1m t\u00e9 druh\u00e9, mohl by b\u00fdt polo\u017een z\u00e1klad pro udr\u017eitelnou dohodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud toto intelektu\u00e1ln\u00ed hnut\u00ed za\u0159ad\u00edme do kategorie \u201epragmaticko-realistick\u00e9\u201c, orientovan\u00e9 na krizov\u00e9 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed statu quo, je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee se sna\u017e\u00ed teoretizovat t\u0159et\u00ed cestu nad r\u00e1mec \u201ebu\u010f JCPOA, nebo v\u00e1lky\u201c: f\u00e1zovan\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, relativn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky, technologick\u00e9 ov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed a region\u00e1ln\u00ed anga\u017eovanost. Prim\u00e1rn\u00edm c\u00edlem nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u00e9 vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed jadern\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky, ale jej\u00ed zvl\u00e1dnut\u00ed a omezen\u00ed, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo eskalaci sm\u011brem k vojensk\u00e9 konfrontaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento p\u0159\u00edstup se pokou\u0161\u00ed odklonit vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed od paradigmatu \u201ekapitulace prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm tlaku\u201c a p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit se modelu \u201evyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, rovnov\u00e1hy a odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c. V tomto smyslu si tento p\u0159\u00edstup klade za c\u00edl zvl\u00e1dnout krizi a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zachovat vliv obou stran. P\u016fsob\u00ed jako moder\u00e1tor tempa jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, aby zabr\u00e1nil n\u00e1hl\u00fdm a ne\u017e\u00e1douc\u00edm zhroucen\u00edm a k\u0159ehk\u00fdm, kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm dohod\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

_________________<\/span><\/p>\n

Brian Hudson<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0je absolventem politologie na Bates College se siln\u00fdm z\u00e1jmem o mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vztahy. Pracuje jako nez\u00e1visl\u00fd koment\u00e1tor se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na geopolitiku a boj proti terorismu.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Konec p\u0159ekladu<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O v\u00edkendu prob\u011bhlo nov\u00e9 kolo jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a USA ohledn\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":78721,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,1060],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78720"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78720"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78720\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}