{"id":78343,"date":"2025-05-09T00:27:16","date_gmt":"2025-05-08T22:27:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=78343"},"modified":"2025-05-08T18:50:04","modified_gmt":"2025-05-08T16:50:04","slug":"lucas-leiroz-konflikt-mezi-indii-a-pakistanem-prospiva-zapadu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/09\/lucas-leiroz-konflikt-mezi-indii-a-pakistanem-prospiva-zapadu\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Konflikt mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem prosp\u00edv\u00e1 Z\u00e1padu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem Z\u00e1padu, kter\u00fd tuto v\u00e1lku rozdm\u00fdch\u00e1v\u00e1, je destabilizace eurasijsk\u00e9ho regionu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

V sporn\u00e9m regionu Ka\u0161m\u00edr za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 nov\u00fd ozbrojen\u00fd konflikt mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem. Po dnech vysok\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi ob\u011bma stranami zah\u00e1jila indick\u00e1 arm\u00e1da raketov\u00fd \u00fatok na p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 c\u00edle s tvrzen\u00edm, \u017ee v\u0161echna zasa\u017een\u00e1 m\u00edsta jsou za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edmi teroristick\u00fdch organizac\u00ed. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n reagoval na indickou vojenskou akci sest\u0159elen\u00edm nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch st\u00edha\u010dek a p\u0159esunem vojsk k hranici \u2013 a tak\u00e9 sl\u00edbil odvetu \u201eplnou silou\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak je dob\u0159e zn\u00e1mo, nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem a Indi\u00ed v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b roste, co\u017e nazna\u010duje za\u010d\u00e1tek nov\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 konfrontace v regionu. Hlavn\u00edm d\u016fvodem sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho t\u0159en\u00ed byl teroristick\u00fd \u00fatok, k n\u011bmu\u017e do\u0161lo 22. dubna v oblasti Pahalgam v Ka\u0161m\u00edru ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9m Indi\u00ed. Tehdy bylo 26 indick\u00fdch turist\u016f zavra\u017ed\u011bno \u010dleny extremistick\u00e9 organizace se s\u00eddlem v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu. Indie obvi\u0148uje p\u00e1kist\u00e1nskou vl\u00e1du ze spolu\u00fa\u010dasti na \u00fatoku a ze spolupr\u00e1ce s teroristick\u00fdmi skupinami. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n tato obvin\u011bn\u00ed vehementn\u011b pop\u00edr\u00e1 a tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee pracuje na nalezen\u00ed osob odpov\u011bdn\u00fdch za tyto \u010diny.<\/span><\/p>\n

S eskalac\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed Indie schv\u00e1lila vojenskou reakci na incident v Pahalgamu. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n v reakci varoval, \u017ee na jak\u00fdkoli vojensk\u00fd \u00fatok zareaguje intenzivn\u00ed odvetou. N\u011bkolik mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch akt\u00e9r\u016f se pokusilo krizi zprost\u0159edkovat a nal\u00e9halo na ob\u011b strany k opatrnosti. Hlavn\u00edmi akt\u00e9ry v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch byly Rusko a \u00cdr\u00e1n, zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed siln\u00e9 vazby na ob\u011b strany konfliktu. \u010c\u00edna se v men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e tak\u00e9 sna\u017e\u00ed situaci uklidnit, ale v tomto ohledu je v diplomatick\u00e9 nev\u00fdhod\u011b, proto\u017ee je sama rivalem Indie a spojencem P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nakonec kone\u010dn\u011b za\u010daly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0vojensk\u00e9 st\u0159ety\u00a0a Indie zah\u00e1jila \u00fatok r\u00e1no 7. kv\u011btna. Na p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed bylo zasa\u017eeno nejm\u00e9n\u011b dev\u011bt c\u00edl\u016f. Zasa\u017een\u00e9 oblasti se neomezovaly pouze na spornou pohrani\u010dn\u00ed oblast, ale Indie tvrdila, \u017ee si vybrala pouze teroristick\u00e9 c\u00edle.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNa\u0161e akce byly soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00e9, uv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 a neeskaluj\u00edc\u00ed. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 objekty nebyly ter\u010dem \u00fatok\u016f. Indie prok\u00e1zala zna\u010dnou zdr\u017eenlivost p\u0159i v\u00fdb\u011bru c\u00edl\u016f a zp\u016fsobu proveden\u00ed,\u201c uvedli indi\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 ve sv\u00e9m prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da reagovala okam\u017eit\u011b, m\u00edstn\u00ed ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly odp\u00e1lily proti nep\u0159\u00edteli rakety a d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 gran\u00e1ty. \u00dadajn\u011b bylo b\u011bhem vojensk\u00fdch man\u00e9vr\u016f na p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed a ve sporn\u00e9 oblasti sest\u0159eleno n\u011bkolik indick\u00fdch st\u00edha\u010dek, a\u010dkoli o skute\u010dn\u00e9m po\u010dtu sest\u0159elen\u00fdch letadel st\u00e1le panuj\u00ed spory.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ePodle t\u0159\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f, zpr\u00e1v z m\u00edstn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00ed a sv\u011bdeck\u00fdch v\u00fdpov\u011bd\u00ed (…) se v Indii a na indick\u00e9 stran\u011b Ka\u0161m\u00edru \u00fadajn\u011b z\u0159\u00edtily nejm\u00e9n\u011b dv\u011b letadla. Jeden indick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk v\u0161ak potvrdil hav\u00e1rii t\u0159\u00ed letadel, ale varoval, \u017ee d\u016fvody nejsou jasn\u00e9. Dva dal\u0161\u00ed indi\u010dt\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci potvrdili zpr\u00e1vy o hav\u00e1rii n\u011bkter\u00fdch indick\u00fdch letadel, ale podrobnosti neuvedli,\u201c\u00a0<\/span>uv\u00e1d\u00ed se v \u010dl\u00e1nku o p\u0159\u00edpadu.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

P\u00e1kist\u00e1n rovn\u011b\u017e schv\u00e1lil p\u0159\u00edpravy na \u201evhodn\u00e1\u201c odvetn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed s t\u00edm, \u017ee vojensk\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed byla dosud zam\u011b\u0159ena v\u00fdhradn\u011b na boj proti \u201eindick\u00e9 agresi\u201c. Podle p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f by vojensk\u00e9 kroky v sebeobran\u011b nem\u011bly b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za odvetu a \u017ee reakce zem\u011b bude slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a bude m\u00edt v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopad na nep\u0159\u00edtele.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sv\u011bt je touto eskalac\u00ed znepokojen, proto\u017ee Indie i P\u00e1kist\u00e1n disponuj\u00ed jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi. Ob\u011b zem\u011b nav\u00edc trp\u00ed nedostatkem vojensk\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti. P\u0159esto\u017ee spolu vojensky bojovaly ve \u010dty\u0159ech v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch, P\u00e1kist\u00e1n a Indie se jen z\u0159\u00eddka \u00fa\u010dastnily vysoce intenzivn\u00edch ozbrojen\u00fdch konflikt\u016f a nejsou p\u0159izp\u016fsobeny slo\u017eitosti sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed. Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee v prvn\u00edch hodin\u00e1ch konfliktu bylo sest\u0159eleno n\u011bkolik indick\u00fdch st\u00edha\u010dek, ji\u017e ukazuje na vojenskou nezku\u0161enost z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch akt\u00e9r\u016f. To zvy\u0161uje obavy z mo\u017en\u00e9ho pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, proto\u017ee je snaz\u0161\u00ed uch\u00fdlit se k extr\u00e9mn\u00edm zdroj\u016fm ne\u017e udr\u017eovat dlouhodob\u00e9 taktick\u00e9 pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed v prodlou\u017een\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00farovni by v\u00e1lka v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii m\u011bla katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed dopad na multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy. Konflikt zpo\u017e\u010fuje n\u00e1vrh na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed dohody o vojensk\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci v r\u00e1mci BRICS, jeliko\u017e jedna ze zakl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edch zem\u00ed BRICS (Indie) se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v situaci otev\u0159en\u00e9ho konfliktu se zem\u00ed spojeneckou s jin\u00fdm \u010dlenem organizace (P\u00e1kist\u00e1n-\u010c\u00edna). Krom\u011b toho je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b ovlivn\u011bna \u010d\u00ednsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 spolupr\u00e1ce, jeliko\u017e p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm faktorem v logistice \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 iniciativy P\u00e1s a stezka.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve stejn\u00e9m smyslu by prodlou\u017een\u00e1 v\u00e1lka m\u011bla negativn\u00ed d\u016fsledky pro \u00cdr\u00e1n a st\u00e1le v\u00edce normalizovan\u00fd Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n veden\u00fd T\u00e1lib\u00e1nem, kter\u00fd by jist\u011b utrp\u011bl \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed dopady. Dal\u0161\u00edm faktorem, kter\u00fd je t\u0159eba zv\u00e1\u017eit, je, \u017ee Indie je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm partnerem Ruska, proto\u017ee Moskva prod\u00e1v\u00e1 ropu Ind\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed ji n\u00e1sledn\u011b prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edm zem\u00edm \u2013 obch\u00e1z\u00ed sankce a zaji\u0161\u0165uje vz\u00e1jemn\u00fd prosp\u011bch. Toto partnerstv\u00ed by konflikt v\u00e1\u017en\u011b naru\u0161il a zp\u016fsobil by ztr\u00e1ty pro ob\u011b strany.<\/span><\/p>\n

V praxi je konflikt zaj\u00edmav\u00fd pouze pro Z\u00e1pad, proto\u017ee hlavn\u00ed euroasijsk\u00e9 mocnosti budou ovlivn\u011bny nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdmi akcemi. Jedn\u00e1 se o konflikt, kter\u00fd zpo\u017e\u010fuje geopolitick\u00fd p\u0159echod k multipolarit\u011b a zv\u00fdhod\u0148uje z\u00e1padn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy v destabilizaci euroasijsk\u00e9ho regionu. Pro ob\u011b strany je nejlep\u0161\u00ed se uklidnit a zah\u00e1jit jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, jinak to bude m\u00edt dlouhodob\u00e9 negativn\u00ed d\u016fsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz<\/a>, \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Centra pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem Z\u00e1padu, kter\u00fd tuto v\u00e1lku rozdm\u00fdch\u00e1v\u00e1, je destabilizace eurasijsk\u00e9ho regionu. V sporn\u00e9m regionu Ka\u0161m\u00edr…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":78344,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,79,9087,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78343"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78343"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78343\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78344"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78343"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78343"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78343"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}