{"id":78247,"date":"2025-05-08T00:24:10","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T22:24:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=78247"},"modified":"2025-05-07T16:35:34","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T14:35:34","slug":"novy-svetovy-rad-umeni-dohody-vs-umeni-valky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/08\/novy-svetovy-rad-umeni-dohody-vs-umeni-valky\/","title":{"rendered":"Nov\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d: Um\u011bn\u00ed dohody vs. um\u011bn\u00ed v\u00e1lky"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

USA se dr\u017e\u00ed Trumpovy linie transak\u010dn\u00ed nal\u00e9havosti, zat\u00edmco \u010c\u00edna prosazuje dlouhodobou strategii trp\u011blivosti, zauj\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 pozice a nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 s\u00edly<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou se rozvinula ve struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed konfrontaci. Nejde jen o cla nebo technologie, ale o dv\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e9 filozofie moci a \u010dasu. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b existuje strategie transak\u010dn\u00ed nal\u00e9havosti. Na druhou stranu strategie syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 trp\u011blivosti. Toto je souboj mezi Trumpov\u00fdm \u201eum\u011bn\u00edm dohody\u201c a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm \u201eum\u011bn\u00edm v\u00e1lky\u201c.<\/p>\n

Trumpova strategie \u201eum\u011bn\u00ed dohody\u201c vzkv\u00e9t\u00e1 na naru\u0161en\u00ed, nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti a kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m vlivu. V dubnu 2025 Trump ozn\u00e1mil nov\u00e1 cla \u2013 10 % na ve\u0161ker\u00fd dovoz, tzv. \u201erecipro\u010dn\u00ed\u201c cla r\u016fzn\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b pro zem\u011b s obchodn\u00edmi p\u0159ebytky s USA a a\u017e 145 % na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Tato strategie si klade za c\u00edl okam\u017eit\u00e9 politick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy. Jak jednou \u0159ekl Trump: \u201eMus\u00edte b\u00fdt nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00ed. To je jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak vyhr\u00e1t.\u201c<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 \u201eum\u011bn\u00ed v\u00e1lky\u201c, zalo\u017een\u00e9 na starov\u011bk\u00e9m u\u010den\u00ed Sun Tzu, klade d\u016fraz na trp\u011blivost, spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 postaven\u00ed a nep\u0159\u00edmou s\u00edlu. Reakce Pekingu je dob\u0159e promy\u0161len\u00e1. Cla jsou v souladu s opat\u0159en\u00edmi USA, \u010c\u00edna v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 urychluje dlouhodob\u00e9 projekty: obchodn\u00ed integraci v r\u00e1mci Region\u00e1ln\u00edho komplexn\u00edho hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho partnerstv\u00ed (RCEP), dal\u0161\u00ed rozvoj iniciativy P\u00e1s a stezka a expanzi digit\u00e1ln\u00edho j\u00fcanu s c\u00edlem zpochybnit dominanci dolaru.<\/p>\n

Sun Tzu n\u00e1m p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1: \u201eNejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm um\u011bn\u00edm v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed je dob\u00fdt nep\u0159\u00edtele bez boje.\u201c<\/p>\n

Strategick\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 harmonogramy: \u010dty\u0159i roky vs. 40<\/strong><\/h3>\n

USA funguje podle volebn\u00edho kalend\u00e1\u0159e. Ka\u017ed\u00e9 \u010dty\u0159i roky jsou strategie upravov\u00e1ny tak, aby odr\u00e1\u017eely priority voli\u010d\u016f. Trumpova cla jsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed narativu o americk\u00e9 s\u00edle a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9m o\u017eiven\u00ed, jak je uvedeno v Projektu 2025, kter\u00fd z\u0159ejm\u011b prosazuje. Multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed struktury, jako je WTO, jsou odsouv\u00e1ny stranou. Jeho nov\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d se buduje prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm s\u00e9rie dohod.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna na druhou stranu pl\u00e1nuje na cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed. Rok 2049, st\u00e9 v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed Lidov\u00e9 republiky, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 jej\u00edm hlavn\u00edm principem. Ka\u017ed\u00fd krok v obchodu, technologi\u00edch a financ\u00edch m\u00e1 za c\u00edl sn\u00ed\u017eit zranitelnost a zv\u00fd\u0161it strategickou autonomii. Tuto zm\u011bnu odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed testov\u00e1n\u00ed digit\u00e1ln\u00edho j\u00fcanu a rostouc\u00ed pod\u00edl j\u00fcanu v obchodn\u00edch vyrovn\u00e1n\u00edch, kter\u00fd nyn\u00ed \u010din\u00ed 20 %.<\/p>\n

Trumpova strategie \u201emaxim\u00e1ln\u00edho tlaku\u201c se zam\u011b\u0159uje na bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159ebytky a p\u0159esun dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f do jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed. C\u00edl je jasn\u00fd: americk\u00e9 tov\u00e1rny, americk\u00e1 pracovn\u00ed m\u00edsta, americk\u00e1 s\u00edla. Politick\u00e1 dynamika se buduje kolem proti\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho populismu.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna na druhou stranu formuluje sv\u00e9 iniciativy v duchu sd\u00edlen\u00e9 prosperity. S narativem \u201espole\u010denstv\u00ed se sd\u00edlenou budoucnost\u00ed\u201c se \u010c\u00edna sna\u017e\u00ed vykreslit svou moc jako glob\u00e1ln\u00ed odpov\u011bdnost, p\u0159esto\u017ee projekty P\u00e1su a stezky jsou st\u00e1le v\u00edce ter\u010dem kritiky kv\u016fli souvisej\u00edc\u00edm dluhov\u00fdm rizik\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Dom\u00e1c\u00ed kompromisy, strategick\u00e9 v\u00fdhody<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Cla m\u011bla v\u00fdznamn\u00fd dopad na dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomiku. V USA p\u0159esunula v\u00fdrobn\u00ed centra sv\u00e9 dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce bl\u00ed\u017ee do Mexika a jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie. Ro\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst mexick\u00e9ho automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu se pohybuje mezi 2,7 a 4,8 %. Inflace v\u0161ak prudce vzrostla.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ed Trumpovou eskalac\u00ed v roce 2025 st\u00e1la cla americk\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele 1,4 miliardy dolar\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odhady nazna\u010duj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady pro rok 2025. Jeden zdroj odhaduje v\u00fddaje ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3,1 bilionu dolar\u016f za deset let (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2 100 dolar\u016f na dom\u00e1cnost v roce 2025).<\/p>\n

V \u010c\u00edn\u011b RCEP pos\u00edlila region\u00e1ln\u00ed vztahy a ochr\u00e1nila kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed. Nez\u00e1vislost v odv\u011btv\u00ed polovodi\u010d\u016f dos\u00e1hla pokroku. Do roku 2023 dos\u00e1hnou \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti masov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby 14nm \u010dip\u016f. Dluhov\u00e9 krize spojen\u00e9 s iniciativou BRI a prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed odliv mozk\u016f do technologick\u00fdch ekosyst\u00e9m\u016f USA a EU v\u0161ak odhaluj\u00ed zranitelnosti.<\/p>\n

V posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech do\u0161lo k nov\u00e9 eskalaci. Trumpova nov\u00e1 cla se net\u00fdkaj\u00ed jen spot\u0159ebn\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed, ale i kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch komponent\u016f, co\u017e zvy\u0161uje n\u00e1klady americk\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 odvetn\u00e1 cla nyn\u00ed uvaluj\u00ed 125% cla na americk\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da se nicm\u00e9n\u011b dr\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9ho c\u00edle hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 5 % a signalizuje svou d\u016fv\u011bru prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm opat\u0159en\u00ed na stimulaci ekonomiky, roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed infrastruktury a diverzifikace exportn\u00edch trh\u016f.<\/p>\n

Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna ml\u010dky vy\u0148ala n\u011bkter\u00e9 americk\u00e9 polovodi\u010de z odvetn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed, co\u017e lze vn\u00edmat jako asymetrick\u00e9 gesto. Zat\u00edmco Trump se chlub\u00ed \u201enov\u00fdmi jedn\u00e1n\u00edmi\u201c, Peking ve\u0159ejn\u011b pop\u00edr\u00e1, \u017ee by k form\u00e1ln\u00edm rozhovor\u016fm doch\u00e1zelo. Tato diplomatick\u00e1 nejednozna\u010dnost odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed Sun-c’ovu radu: \u201eKdy\u017e jsi siln\u00fd, vypadaj slab\u011b, a kdy\u017e jsi slab\u00fd, vypadaj siln\u011b.\u201c<\/p>\n

Fragmentace obchodn\u00ed a technologick\u00e9 politiky<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Mezit\u00edm se obchodn\u00ed syst\u00e9my fragmentuj\u00ed. USA se zav\u00e1zaly k indicko-pacifick\u00e9mu ekonomick\u00e9mu r\u00e1mci s c\u00edlem zav\u00e9st nov\u00e9 digit\u00e1ln\u00ed standardy. \u010c\u00edna vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 kan\u00e1ly RCEP a BRICS k oslaben\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed regula\u010dn\u00ed dominance. M\u011bnov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my se \u0159\u00edd\u00ed podobn\u00fdm vzorem. Most m-CBDC, do kter\u00e9ho pat\u0159\u00ed \u010c\u00edna, Thajsko a Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, testuje p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed digit\u00e1ln\u00ed platby nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 na SWIFTu.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se prohlubuje technologick\u00e9 odd\u011blen\u00ed. Americk\u00fd z\u00e1kon o \u010dipech a v\u011bd\u011b (CHIPS and Science Act) investuje 52 miliard dolar\u016f do revitalizace americk\u00e9ho polovodi\u010dov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd program \u201eMal\u00ed giganti\u201c mezit\u00edm podporuje p\u0159es 10 000 mal\u00fdch a st\u0159edn\u00edch technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed a buduje ekosyst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd je m\u00e9n\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00fd na z\u00e1padn\u00edm dovozu.<\/p>\n

St\u0159edn\u00ed a mal\u00e9 mocnosti se p\u0159izp\u016fsobuj\u00ed nov\u00e9mu sv\u011btov\u00e9mu \u0159\u00e1du. Kanada a Austr\u00e1lie dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed kritick\u00e9 miner\u00e1ly do obou blok\u016f. Indie usiluje o neomezen\u00fd technologick\u00fd rozvoj a investuje do hardwaru s otev\u0159en\u00fdm zdrojov\u00fdm k\u00f3dem RISC-V. Singapur prosazuje digit\u00e1ln\u00ed neutralitu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm iniciativ, jako je blockchain TradeTrust.<\/p>\n

Tchaj-wan se spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed k\u0159em\u00edk, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e dominance TSMC v oblasti 2nm \u010dip\u016f \u010din\u00ed zemi nepostradatelnou, ale tak\u00e9 st\u00e1le zraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Strategii p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edch mocnost\u00ed v tomto rozd\u011bluj\u00edc\u00edm se sv\u011bt\u011b ur\u010duje flexibilita, nikoli loajalita.<\/p>\n

2030: Koexistence nebo kolize<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Jsou p\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9 dva budouc\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e. Kooperativn\u00ed sou\u017eit\u00ed by vedlo k omezen\u00e9 deeskalaci. USA a \u010c\u00edna by mohly naj\u00edt prostor pro spolupr\u00e1ci v oblasti klimatick\u00fdch technologi\u00ed, spr\u00e1vy um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a kontroly pandemi\u00ed. Studen\u00e1 v\u00e1lka 2.0 se v\u0161ak r\u00fdsuje jako bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 cesta s mo\u017en\u00fdm \u00fapln\u00fdm technologick\u00fdm a finan\u010dn\u00edm odd\u011blen\u00edm, rozd\u011blen\u00edm syst\u00e9m\u016f SWIFT a CIPS a soupe\u0159\u00edc\u00edmi digit\u00e1ln\u00edmi infrastrukturami.<\/p>\n

\u010cern\u00e9 labut\u011b \u010d\u00edhaj\u00ed. Nekontrolovan\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence GPT-7 by mohlo destabilizovat finan\u010dn\u00ed a politick\u00e9 syst\u00e9my. Sout\u011b\u017e o dominanci v oblasti zelen\u00fdch technologi\u00ed mezi pob\u00eddkami americk\u00e9ho z\u00e1kona o sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed inflace (IRA) a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi projekty Zelen\u00e9ho p\u00e1su by mohla vyvolat nov\u00e9 vektory konfliktu.<\/p>\n

USA mus\u00ed modernizovat multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9my. WTO 2.0 s protokoly pro digit\u00e1ln\u00ed obchod a \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed spor\u016f v oblasti um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 jsou nal\u00e9hav\u011b pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 krizov\u00e9 komunika\u010dn\u00ed kan\u00e1ly s \u010c\u00ednskou lidov\u011b osvobozeneckou arm\u00e1dou, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo eskalaci \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 algoritmy.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna mus\u00ed tak\u00e9 p\u0159ehodnotit sv\u016fj model \u201eP\u00e1su a stezky\u201c. Oddlu\u017een\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na v souvislosti s klimatick\u00fdmi riziky, by mohlo obnovit dobrou v\u016fli diplomatick\u00fdch kruh\u016f. Narativn\u00ed posun od \u201eglob\u00e1ln\u00edho veden\u00ed\u201c k \u201ekooperativn\u00edmu postupn\u00e9mu rozvoji\u201c by tak\u00e9 zm\u00edrnil odpor.<\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed mocnosti by m\u011bly vyu\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 schopnosti jednat. ASEAN mus\u00ed dokon\u010dit kodex chov\u00e1n\u00ed pro Jiho\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e, aby se p\u0159ede\u0161lo konflikt\u016fm s \u010c\u00ednou. EU mus\u00ed uv\u00e9st do provozu sv\u016fj fond ve v\u00fd\u0161i 100 miliard eur pro technologickou suverenitu, ne\u017e se strategick\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost zako\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Vytrvalost m\u00edsto dominance<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Sout\u011b\u017e mezi \u201eum\u011bn\u00edm obchodovat\u201c a \u201eum\u011bn\u00edm v\u00e1lky\u201c formuje nov\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d. Trumpova vize se vyzna\u010duje naru\u0161en\u00edm a rychl\u00fdmi v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edmi. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 vize se vyzna\u010duje strukturou, trp\u011blivost\u00ed a adaptac\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to nov\u00e9 realit\u011b v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt dominance m\u00e9n\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 ne\u017e odolnost. \u00dasp\u011bch by nemohla rozhodnout velikost, ale p\u0159izp\u016fsobivost. Zem\u011b jako Singapur a Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 jsou dob\u0159e obezn\u00e1meny s dvoj\u00edmi vztahy, ji\u017e ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee neutralita a strategick\u00e1 agilita jsou formami moci.<\/p>\n

Jak u\u010d\u00ed Sun Tzu: \u201eUprost\u0159ed chaosu je tak\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost.\u201c A jak n\u00e1m Trump p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1: \u201ePokud u\u017e chcete p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let, m\u011bli byste myslet ve velk\u00e9m.\u201c<\/p>\n

Hrac\u00ed pole se zm\u011bnilo. Dal\u0161\u00edmi v\u00edt\u011bzi budou ti, kte\u0159\u00ed zvl\u00e1dnou jak um\u011bn\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, tak um\u011bn\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Od Tang Meng Kit<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USA se dr\u017e\u00ed Trumpovy linie transak\u010dn\u00ed nal\u00e9havosti, zat\u00edmco \u010c\u00edna prosazuje dlouhodobou strategii trp\u011blivosti, zauj\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed spr\u00e1vn\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":78248,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,37,814],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78247"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78247"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78247\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78249,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78247\/revisions\/78249"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78248"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}